ADVERTISEMENT

OT: 2018 Phillies Thread.....

Analytics have their place but Kapler needs to dial it back a bit. Baseball isn’t that complicated. Just like Chip Kelly he thinks he is smarter than everyone and has reinvented the game.
 
After watching these guys in Clearwater, my observations and what I’ve been told.

The approach is radically different and makes me question why Bowa, Charlie, and Schmidt are even involved anymore. For a team who was not an advocate of analytics, they are all in now. Someone said to me that “they wonder what all those guys do all day”. I’ve been told that they have an algorithm for every hitter so that they look for matchups to exploit weaknesses. Besides the obvious pitching matchups, they experimented with shifting players to align defensively as well given the analytics. They often moved their outfielders and other position players multiple times during the games to exploit matchups.

The front office is clearly more involved than previously and I’m told that isn’t necessarily a good thing. Middleton is much more active and clearly advocated the signings of players that could be questioned on a number of fronts.

Spring Training games are meaningless but I came away more than ever with no idea as to what I watched. The starters never went too long and then there was a non stop parade of relievers. People can criticize pulling Nola but I’m not sure he ever reached 70 pitches in a Spring Training game if memory serves me correct. Normally, the last start you stretch the guy out to 100 pitches but they didn’t do it. I’d expect more of the same for April to be honest.

Pitching - so hard to get a read given the way they did their business. The starters had some bright spots but they never pitched long enough. Lively, Nola, and even Vince had good Spring Training games. I don’t know about Arietta. I heard he was in great shape but opposing batters teed off his fastball. The last game he abandoned the fastball after getting hammered in the first inning against the Pirates and went strictly breaking ball. He was a name signing but I don’t know what the Phillies got. Nobody in the pen impressed me on the major league team. Garcia has the best pure stuff and will be the closer sooner than later. Delasantos threw hard and easy for one of the kids below the radar. I don’t like the mix to be honest. They have the guys who we have seen and nobody else behind them. Lively, Eflin, Thompson, Pivetta, and Vince either step up this year or get left behind. I’m not counting on any of them. The old mound demeanor would seem to favor Lively out of this group. They need another top of the rotation starter going forward to compete along with Nola, Jake, and Eickoff. Lively would be my five. Good luck finding that guy. They really wanted to focus on the pen, nobody impressed me, especially the closer. At some point, you need to have people who can get people out regardless of analytics. They don’t have it.

Hitting - As bad as the pitching was, the hitting was worse. All you heard was that Santana was brought in to help with approach. One of the games, outside of strikeouts, they barely saw over 1 pitch per AB. IT was comical. I actually like Santana as a 2 hole hitter but the Phillies overpaid the market to get him and he came at a position that rippled throughout the roster. As said above, you really needed to see a whole year of AB’s from Nick and Aaron. The genius said thay will all get their AB’s, we will see. It also took Hoskins (who is critically important) and made him go back to his irregular position. They would have been better served by allowing Rhys to play his natural position and focus on a big year career wise. It’s obvious that the biggest splash was signing Kingery and that he becomes a foundation piece along with Hoskins moving forward. But again, the infield gets jumbled and they will wind up trading someone they wished they hadn’t if it is Cesar. Wherever they determine Kingery fits best, the other player will be moved. After watching Odubel and Franco, I would move both. Alfaro struggled behind the plate. He better hit 20 bombs or he is a liability as it stands right now.

The thing that will stick with me most from Spring Training was the sight of Roman Quinn playing short. Ridiculous. He was a horrible fielder at that position originally. Why they decided to play him a lot in the spring at that position at this level is mind numbing. His arm slot had every throw going into the dirt. I felt bad for him.

It’s a huge year for Franco, Odubel, JP, Nick, and Altherr and a big year for Hoskins who was hopefully just tired at the end of last year. On the pitching side, ditto for Vince, Hector, and Garcia. My guess is a number of the above don’t break camp with this team next year.

I’ll say 72 wins.
 
Last edited:
After watching these guys in Clearwater, my observations and what I’ve been told....

It’s a huge year for Franco, Odubel, JP, Nick, and Altherr and a big year for Hoskins who was hopefully just tired at the end of last year. On the pitching side, ditto for Vince, Hector, and Garcia. My guess is a number of the above don’t break camp with this team next year.

I’ll say 72 wins.

Thanks for a good writeup. The Phils won 71 in 2016 and 66 in 2017, so 72 doesn't seem like great progress. I'm thinking .500 ball or 81 wins, which may be optimistic. This degree of reliance on analytics seems strange.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Victor E. Bell
I was hoping for a run at .500 this year too. 71 looks optimistic based on this weekend. There may be a mutiny.
The temptation is to say that this team is a complete mess but it is only 3 games. We all agree that it was too much to expect them to contend this year, given the division they are in. However, it seems to me that the approach this management team is taking is not conducive to finding out who can play for a contender.

It was a colossal mistake not to have Hoskins at his position every day and Altherr and Williams need to be in the lineup every day. These guys need 500+ ABs to see if they can play, because if they can’t, I need a whole new OF. The pitching stinks but there is hope in the minors.
 
I actually like a lot of the talent on the team. I have no idea what Kapler is doing. It may be a situation where you bring in a more traditional baseball guy and all of a sudden they take off.
 
A big Ego is running the show. He micro manages like the game is about him. As this guy is off to a rough start, acts like he knows more about the game then everyone else. CAN'T STAND ANALYTICS, CAN'T STAND OVERMANAGING, Let the players play the game and get out of their way. That's my rant.
I know it is only three games and the team has already received a warning from MLB, I've never heard of this before. Guy manages like it is the 7th game of the world series. Thing about Charlie, he seemed to never let his ego get in the way of the players. If Kapler is still in Philly next year no big name free agent is coming.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Nitt1300
It may be a situation where you bring in a more traditional baseball guy and all of a sudden they take off.
As a Nats fan, I think this would have been a good situation for a guy like Dusty Baker. I think he would have done well teaching young players how to play the MLB game with no or low expectations.
 
I know it is only three games and the team has already received a warning from MLB, I've never heard of this before. Guy manages like it is the 7th game of the world series. Thing about Charlie, he seemed to never let his ego get in the way of the players. If Kapler is still in Philly next year no big name free agent is coming.
That's a very big deal, a real thing.
 
As a Nats fan, I think this would have been a good situation for a guy like Dusty Baker. I think he would have done well teaching young players how to play the MLB game with no or low expectations.
No or low expectations? If I was a GM I'd never hire someone with that attitude. Even if a team is in full rebuilding mode (which the Phillies are past), a manager should always be expecting players to improve and work toward a winning mindset. Nobody is getting paid to sit around and expect to lose.
 
I know it is only three games and the team has already received a warning from MLB, I've never heard of this before. Guy manages like it is the 7th game of the world series. Thing about Charlie, he seemed to never let his ego get in the way of the players. If Kapler is still in Philly next year no big name free agent is coming.
What's been the reaction in Philadelphia media and talk radio?

Is this blowing up?
 
What's been the reaction in Philadelphia media and talk radio?

Is this blowing up?

It’s not good but the Phillies sit behind a lot of sports stories currently in play - Nova, Eagles off season, etc.

The bullpen disaster with the player not warmed up has been featured and now Kapler has double downed by saying that he believes the Phillies make the playoffs.

You can say whatever you want about the roster but this ownership has made some really interesting managerial choices - Ryno and Kapler. Ryno was so bad that even with the old boys network, you don’t see any other team interested in having Sandberg involved in their franchise in a meaningful way. For old timers, he was John Felske like. I have the same feeling about Kapler. Once he flames out here, I’m not sure he gets another look. Guy seems in way over his head.
 
  • Like
Reactions: royboy
For Phillies fans, an interesting guy to take a look at is Kyle Young. He is listed in some pubs as being 7’ tall. Others list him as being 6’10”. The thing that intrigues me about Young is that tall pitchers frequently have control issues given the many moving parts. But Young demonstrated GREAT control. With his length, he will be right on top of the hitter. He interests me. Plus, he’s a great kid who wants to get better. Check him out.
 
  • Like
Reactions: bmw199
For Phillies fans, an interesting guy to take a look at is Kyle Young. He is listed in some pubs as being 7’ tall. Others list him as being 6’10”. The thing that intrigues me about Young is that tall pitchers frequently have control issues given the many moving parts. But Young demonstrated GREAT control. With his length, he will be right on top of the hitter. He interests me. Plus, he’s a great kid who wants to get better. Check him out.
Interesting....where will he begin the year? High A?
 
I miss Charlie. I'd have been fine if they kept Pete another year. Similar personalities. Hard to get down with Gabe so far. Seems like a bullshit artist and in over his head. Winning will atone for a lot of flaws though, if we ever see it.
Charlie was over his head when he started as well. We'll see. Gabe could be an utter disaster, or he could figure it out. Right now, I'm concerned about the pitching as as much as the manager.
 
No, I was not saying Dusty had no or low expectations, the "experts" I read picked the Philles to be a 71 or 72 win team. 2019 was supposed to be "the" year for the Phills. What I was saying is that I think Dusty would have been a good manager for a young team.

if you want any young pitching talent on the team to be ruined , then maybe

otherwise no thanks. He is like the anti-kapler, i get that .... but a manager should be somewhere in between those 2 (leaning to the sabre side IMO)
 
Last edited:
if you want any young pitching talent on the team to be ruined , then maybe

otherwise no thanks. He is like the anti-kapler, i get that .... but a manager should be somewhere in between those 2 (leaning to the sabre side IMO)
They should promote Wathan and see how it goes with him... if things keep on like they've started.
 
Tonight's game is snowed out. The good news is the bullpen should be well rested heading into tomorrow.

 
What's been the reaction in Philadelphia media and talk radio?

Is this blowing up?

It has been a hot topic. Sports talk has been brutal with regards to Kapler, and his decisions in the first three games.

As tailgate indicates, there are a number of other stories in the press, on TV, and on sports talk. The Embiid injury, the Flyers efforts to make the playoffs, and Villanova's run have combined with the Kapler outrage to collectively bump the Eagles from the top rung of discussion.

All that said, I think that Grant Green has the best analysis. You could have any HOF manager you could think of in the Phils' dugout, but with the Phils' pitching staff, the outcome would likely be about the same as it will be with Kapler. That is the biggest issue with this team (not that Kapler didn't look like an amateur in the opening series).
 
It has been a hot topic. Sports talk has been brutal with regards to Kapler, and his decisions in the first three games.

As tailgate indicates, there are a number of other stories in the press, on TV, and on sports talk. The Embiid injury, the Flyers efforts to make the playoffs, and Villanova's run have combined with the Kapler outrage to collectively bump the Eagles from the top rung of discussion.

All that said, I think that Grant Green has the best analysis. You could have any HOF manager you could think of in the Phils' dugout, but with the Phils' pitching staff, the outcome would likely be about the same as it will be with Kapler. That is the biggest issue with this team (not that Kapler didn't look like an amateur in the opening series).
Nola seemed to be doing pretty well on opening day. Bullpen is a mess right now with key injuries. Velazquez just doesn't seem to be able to put it together consistently, despite his arm talent.
 
Wow, the game today can only be seen on Facebook. Last night's game was only seen through the NBC sports app. Not the best way to get the fan's interest.
 
I miss Charlie. I'd have been fine if they kept Pete another year. Similar personalities. Hard to get down with Gabe so far. Seems like a bullshit artist and in over his head. Winning will atone for a lot of flaws though, if we ever see it.
Last year a friend of mine wanted to bet the season, $1 per game, Phillies wins vs Cleveland Indians wins, I knew what was coming so I said, sure, but if we are going to do that, lets throw in the Eagles vs the Browns wins for $5 per game, he knew he had to agree. I collect my money tonight.
 
Last year a friend of mine wanted to bet the season, $1 per game, Phillies wins vs Cleveland Indians wins, I knew what was coming so I said, sure, but if we are going to do that, lets throw in the Eagles vs the Browns wins for $5 per game, he knew he had to agree. I collect my money tonight.
$44?
 
I watched the Phillies vs Mets game last night and the announcers said something I found very interesting, more about Phillies recent pitching history than Mets hitting history.

Last year, the Mets hit 33 HRs against the Phils, which was the 3rd most the Mets have ever hit against one club in a single season. Then the announcers went on to say that the 2nd most the Mets ever hit against a club in a single season was 34 HRs in 2016 against……..yep, the Phillies. They went on further and said that the most HRs the Mets ever hit against a club in a single season was 35 in 2015 against……yep, the Phillies once again. I was a bit astounded by this.

I do seem to remember the Mets having 6 and 8 HR games against the Phils the last few seasons.
 
well it is actually over the last 2 yrs (I didnt want to bore you with that part) so I think it is only $36. We have a CPA (really) audit the results. The Cpa is part of another leg of this mess, I have the Phillies, he has the Reds, so the last 2 yrs so he owes me $1. The final leg is me vs another guy, he has the Cardinals (baseball), I owe him $32. Heading out after work to the Knights of Columbus to square up and re-new for another year. Should be loads of fun!!
 
  • Like
Reactions: Grant Green
Wow, the Phillies just pulled the old little league 1st and 3rd steal play. The one where the runner gets in a rundown so the guy on 3rd can score - and it worked.
 
I watched the Phillies vs Mets game last night and the announcers said something I found very interesting, more about Phillies recent pitching history than Mets hitting history.

Last year, the Mets hit 33 HRs against the Phils, which was the 3rd most the Mets have ever hit against one club in a single season. Then the announcers went on to say that the 2nd most the Mets ever hit against a club in a single season was 34 HRs in 2016 against……..yep, the Phillies. They went on further and said that the most HRs the Mets ever hit against a club in a single season was 35 in 2015 against……yep, the Phillies once again. I was a bit astounded by this.

I do seem to remember the Mets having 6 and 8 HR games against the Phils the last few seasons.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/PHI/PHI201508240.shtml

I & my family were there. It was great!
 
  • Like
Reactions: Howie'81
Doug Pederson is throwing out the first pitch for Thursday's home opener. We are heading down, our first game at the Bank in 3 years.

You picked a good one to attend, Relayer.

I got a chuckle out of the crowd's reaction when Kapler came out to make a pitching change.
 
You picked a good one to attend, Relayer.

I got a chuckle out of the crowd's reaction when Kapler came out to make a pitching change.

Nice day at the ball park, although chilly. We were is the sun on the first base side. The reaction for Kapler was the same in the pre-game intro's. My question is why did Pivetta hit in the bottom of the 5th, first and third with 2 outs up 3-0? We all knew he wasn't going to finish the 6th at 85 pitches.

Doug Pederson could run for mayor tomorrow and win. He was in a box above us for the first couple innings and garnered most of the attention.
 
My question is why did Pivetta hit in the bottom of the 5th, first and third with 2 outs up 3-0? We all knew he wasn't going to finish the 6th at 85 pitches.

analytics. :D

The reaction for Kapler was the same in the pre-game intro's.

I was listening to that on the radio while driving, and it was hard to tell how loud/bad the reaction was for his introduction.

Doug Pederson could run for mayor tomorrow and win. He was in a box above us for the first couple innings and garnered most of the attention.

He probably could, though he'd have to move from NJ into the city first. That said, I don't think he would want any part of that job. He seems quite happy as head coach. From afar (i.e., I don't personally know Pederson), he seems to be well grounded, and not caught up in all the hoopla that has taken place since the Super Bowl win.
 
I know it is only three games and the team has already received a warning from MLB, I've never heard of this before. Guy manages like it is the 7th game of the world series. Thing about Charlie, he seemed to never let his ego get in the way of the players. If Kapler is still in Philly next year no big name free agent is coming.
Do you mean if Kapler is still in Philly next week?
 

DaG9f3OU8AIAKtx
 
Another great outing by Nola, 8 innings, 1 run, 103 pitches. Kingerly with a grand slam and Odubel with a couple doubles. Santana has hit the ball hard the last 2 nights with little to show for it. Let's face it though, the Reds are a bad baseball team.
 
ADVERTISEMENT

Latest posts

ADVERTISEMENT