Football OFFICIAL: UCLA, USC to join the Big Ten starting in 2024

doctornick

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If this deal is bad for Notre Dame, I am ALL IN.

It's kinda bad for Notre Dame is that it pushes them that much closer to having to give up football independence. But Notre Dame will have no problem naming its conference once it inevitably decides to join for football. And it is tough to see them joining the ACC if the Big Ten and SEC continue to completely outpace that conference in revenues.

While it's possible that some small tinkering can occur (e.g. Oregon/Washington to Big Ten), I actually expect the next move will be Notre Dame or Clemson jumping to get out of the ACC into a higher revenue conference. If it is Notre Dame, that's likely to be them moving to the Big Ten (probably along with Stanford). If it is Clemson, that would be them joining the SEC, probably along with FSU.

The penalties for leaving the ACC would be steep in the shorter term, but the increase in revenues for any team by joining the SEC or Big Ten could make it a wash in the short term and secure a place at the table in the long term. Notre Dame's penalty for leaving the ACC would be less than anyone else because they don't have their football TV rights tied to the conference.
 

wolve1972

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The biggest question I have is whether this will make the B1G West better?
No doubt - they can't get any worse. They might actually win a B1G championship game and conference title in the next 5 years - finally

Actually, to be fair, I think the B1G West - from top to bottom - is about equal to the East who is top heavy with PSU, UM, OSU and MSU. But the East is also weaker at the bottom with Rutgers, Indiana, and Maryland which evens it all out - or fairly close to it.
 
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psuno1

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Sounds like the Big10 wants UW, Oregon, Stanford and ND to make 20-no link just what I am reading on twitter. UW and Oregon could be announced by next week.
 
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doctornick

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Do you really believe academics account for anything at this point?
I think there's an academic floor that the Big Ten has, though I don't think AAU membership per se is a deal breaker (e.g. Notre Dame is a take regardless of their lack of membership there). But most Power 5 teams would be acceptable to the Big Ten or at least any worth taking. I think the one fringe case is Clemson who has the football prowess to be "worth it" but is definitely below existing Big Ten schools and is not AAU; Oregon at least is an AAU school and flagship state university though they are also kinda borderline.

I don't think the SEC would care about academics at all.
 

jabba2

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Sounds like the Big10 wants UW, Oregon, Stanford and ND to make 20-no link just what I am reading on twitter. UW and Oregon could be announced by next week.



I've seen the opposite reported that the B1G is done with the PAC 12 for now.
 

heckmans

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Do you really believe academics account for anything at this point?
I do believe that perceived survival risks will trump academics , but so far, everyone being thrown around is AAU at least...USC, UCLA, UW, Oregon, Stanford. ND is the exception.
If the B1G would try to stay with AAU schools, the addl P5 candidates would be:

UVA
Colorado
UNC
Duke
Pitt...jk
Mizzou
Cal
Vandy
GT
AZ
UT
Kansas

I'll you guys chime in on who would be likely/viable/beneficial
 

doctornick

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Sounds like the Big10 wants UW, Oregon, Stanford and ND to make 20-no link just what I am reading on twitter. UW and Oregon could be announced by next week.

I wouldn't believe anything on twitter. People are just throwing crap on the wall and seeing what sticks.

I'm sure the Big Ten would be open to Notre Dame (plus likely Stanford) if that were an option but it would need a paradigm shift from the Irish for it to occur. I'm also sure the Big Ten is looking at Oregon and Washington to consider if they would make sense - the schools would absolutely jump if accepted - but I doubt that's impending. I really don't see any other schools making any sense for the Big Ten at this time.
 
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jabba2

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I wouldn't believe anything on twitter. People are just throwing crap on the wall and seeing what sticks.

I'm sure the Big Ten would be open to Notre Dame (plus likely Stanford) if that were an option but it would need a paradigm shift from the Irish for it to occur. I'm also sure the Big Ten is looking at Oregon and Washington to consider if they would make sense - the schools would absolutely jump if accepted - but I doubt that's impending. I really don't see any other schools making any sense for the Big Ten at this time.

You dont see UNC or Clemson being in play if they asked? FSU?
 

wolve1972

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Do you really believe academics account for anything at this point?
I think AAU membership is a big factor. So far, every school that has been admitted has had AAU membership - although Nebraska was forced to give theirs up over some kind of issue with their hospital moving.

Now would they take a highly academically ranked school that doesn't have AAU credentials - like ND. Probably but can't say for sure. ND is almost always ranked in the top 15 to 20 of just about every academic rating.
 
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doctornick

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You dont see UNC or Clemson being in play if they asked? FSU?
not in the short term. I think the ACC is probably stable for the time being.

And when the time comes for "something" to happen, it will almost certainly be Clemson and FSU finding a way into the SEC not the Big Ten. I think all sides will realize that they make more sense for the SEC and that will be their preference and helps the Big Ten having to avoid whether to consider them and their academics.
 
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LandoComando

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not in the short term. I think the ACC is probably stable for the time being.

And when the time comes for "something" to happen, it will almost certainly be Clemson and FSU finding a way into the SEC not the Big Ten. I think all sides will realize that they make more sense for the SEC and that will be their preference and helps the Big Ten having to avoid whether to consider them and their academics.

Do you truly think academics are a driving factor any more?
 

LemonEars

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I do believe that perceived survival risks will trump academics , but so far, everyone being thrown around is AAU at least...USC, UCLA, UW, Oregon, Stanford. ND is the exception.
If the B1G would try to stay with AAU schools, the addl P5 candidates would be:

UVA
Colorado
UNC
Duke
Pitt...jk
Mizzou
Cal
Vandy
GT
AZ
UT
Kansas

I'll you guys chime in on who would be likely/viable/beneficial
None of the schools on you list would add anything to the Big. They would just suckle from the money trough created by the current members. Schools like GT, Vandy, Colorado, pitt, Mizzou aren't Big caliber schools.
 

HailToPitt725

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You dont see UNC or Clemson being in play if they asked? FSU?
I think it’ll come down to whether Notre Dame leaves for the Big Ten. That has to happen first; they have the easiest path out of the ACC and their exit could allow the schools with value to the Big Ten/SEC (Clemson, Florida State, Miami, North Carolina) to use it as a way out of the grant of rights agreement.
 

doctornick

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Do you truly think academics are a driving factor any more?

For the Big Ten yes. Not a huge factor or certainly the first one, but I think the Big Ten presidents would have a "floor" of academic quality that they would consider. They are in a position where they can be choosey.

honestly, it doesn't matter that much. the only school of significant value but questionable academics would be Clemson and they will end up in the SEC over the Big Ten. Any other school the Big Ten would want is fine academically.
 

LandoComando

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For the Big Ten yes. Not a huge factor or certainly the first one, but I think the Big Ten presidents would have a "floor" of academic quality that they would consider. They are in a position where they can be choosey.

honestly, it doesn't matter that much. the only school of significant value but questionable academics would be Clemson and they will end up in the SEC over the Big Ten. Any other school the Big Ten would want is fine academically.
Fair enough--I guess we'll see how it plays out. I don't think that's true at all but time will tell.
 

jabba2

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I think it’ll come down to whether Notre Dame leaves for the Big Ten. That has to happen first; they have the easiest path out of the ACC and their exit could allow the schools with value to the Big Ten/SEC (Clemson, Florida State, Miami, North Carolina) to use it as a way out of the grant of rights agreement.

Personally I think 16 teams is plenty big enough and dont even want ND or the ACC schools, but I do think the B1G will be approached by a number of schools looking to cash in. Its a fact now other schools from the smaller conferences are going to want in.
 
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LandoComando

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My best guess is at least 3 more Pac XII schools (Stanford, Oregon and Washington) join the Big Ten by 2024 and either Notre Dame or someone Va Tech. If ND caves I'm saying 8 schools join in 2024.
 

LandoComando

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Personally I think 16 teams is plenty big enough and dont even want ND or the ACC schools, but I do think the B1G will be approached by a number of schools looking to cash in. Its a fact now other schools from the smaller conferences are going to want in.
I think we need to stop looking at conferences like we have in the past and look at them as leagues with multiple divisions
 

Obliviax

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Personally I think 16 teams is plenty big enough and dont even want ND or the ACC schools, but I do think the B1G will be approached by a number of schools looking to cash in. Its a fact now other schools from the smaller conferences are going to want in.
I think this is bigger than that. I think what you are going to see is schools peeling away from the NCAA and creating their own power structure. The "bigs" no longer need the NCAA. it was a marriage of convenience. What we are seeing is that the big spots schools are pooling to two conferences: B1G and SEC. As that happens, the need for an NCAA is less and less. Ultimately, ten years, you'll see these organizations have their own CBA with the players. And when that happens, there will be the one or two big power conferences and a whole load of secondary schools with the NCAA.
 
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jabba2

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I think this is bigger than that. I think what you are going to see is schools peeling away from the NCAA and creating their own power structure. The "bigs" no longer need the NCAA. it was a marriage of convenience. What we are seeing is that the big spots schools are pooling to two conferences: B1G and SEC. As that happens, the need for an NCAA is less and less. Ultimately, ten years, you'll see these organizations have their own CBA with the players. And when that happens, there will be the one or two big power conferences and a whole load of secondary schools with the NCAA.

I've seen this theory floating around often. Just dont see many teams left out there that move the needle. ND everyone seems to want I'd just rather not add them. But they may decide to want in. The B1G reportedly doesn't want Oregon, that goes against the mega conference theory if true.
 

The Spin Meister

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An altered state
I wouldn't believe anything on twitter. People are just throwing crap on the wall and seeing what sticks.

I'm sure the Big Ten would be open to Notre Dame (plus likely Stanford) if that were an option but it would need a paradigm shift from the Irish for it to occur. I'm also sure the Big Ten is looking at Oregon and Washington to consider if they would make sense - the schools would absolutely jump if accepted - but I doubt that's impending. I really don't see any other schools making any sense for the Big Ten at this time.
Agree that these are two most likely. Notre Dame is a given should they decide to join a conference. Stanford would be a great get on so many levels. First it adds the San Jose/San Francisco tv market which is a huge desire of advertisers. And we all know this is about money.

Stanford is perhaps the number one academic institution which would be a tremendous boost to Big Ten research schools. And it is tied very closely to Silicon Valley which brings more research, more tech, and huge monies from wealthy alumni.

Both help in recruiting by being on the schedule and playing three different Ca teams helps get kids in so they get to play the west coast every year. And it opens up more recruiting in California.

No other teams add near that much to the league.
 

LemonEars

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I see ND wimping out and jumping full time to the ACC.
Notre Dame knows that Clemson, Florida State, and Miami will likely bolt to the SEC. Notre Dame isn't going to stay put in a MAC level conference. They will be courted by the Big and SEC, and then they will pick the one to join. After that the remaining chaff in the ACC will join the MAC and provide them with two new divisions. The remaining ACC slugs will probably never again sign any football recruit above 3-stars and eventually their football programs will regress to club level.
 

jabba2

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Agree that these are two most likely. Notre Dame is a given should they decide to join a conference. Stanford would be a great get on so many levels. First it adds the San Jose/San Francisco tv market which is a huge desire of advertisers. And we all know this is about money.

Stanford is perhaps the number one academic institution which would be a tremendous boost to Big Ten research schools. And it is tied very closely to Silicon Valley which brings more research, more tech, and huge monies from wealthy alumni.

Both help in recruiting by being on the schedule and playing three different Ca teams helps get kids in so they get to play the west coast every year. And it opens up more recruiting in California.

No other teams add near that much to the league.

But why not add Stanford instead of UCLA if they're so desirable?
 

Obliviax

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Appears that no other PAC members knew of this move. Perhaps if Stanford knew what was happening and also asked they would have been brought in ahead of UCLA.
UCLA has almost 50k students whereas stanford has less than 18k (undergrad). UCLA may have been brought in to reserve the traditional USC/UCLA rivalry. I get Standord's academic and sports ratings, but it would be a pretty touch choice if you had to only have one.
 

The Spin Meister

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UCLA has almost 50k students whereas stanford has less than 18k (undergrad). UCLA may have been brought in to reserve the traditional USC/UCLA rivalry. I get Standord's academic and sports ratings, but it would be a pretty touch choice if you had to only have one.
Stanford wins the President’s Cup every year because they undoubtedly have the top sports program in the country. And it isn’t even close in the points generated.

Many also consider them the top academic university in the country, ahead of Harvard. Add in a tv market full of filthy rich youngins that blow through cash like Hunter on a cocaine/hooker binge. TV networks would kill for that market.

Some of top researchers in the world. Great connections to all massive global tech companies. Great connections to China, all of Asia, and more that will help make the Big a global network.
 

LandoComando

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I've seen this theory floating around often. Just dont see many teams left out there that move the needle. ND everyone seems to want I'd just rather not add them. But they may decide to want in. The B1G reportedly doesn't want Oregon, that goes against the mega conference theory if true.
Maybe the needle has changed though. It's not just about market and shares. It's about the bigger picture. Also, we don't know the Big Ten doesn't want Oregon--it's probably that they have other things in the works first
 
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Obliviax

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Stanford wins the President’s Cup every year because they undoubtedly have the top sports program in the country. And it isn’t even close in the points generated.

Many also consider them the top academic university in the country, ahead of Harvard. Add in a tv market full of filthy rich youngins that blow through cash like Hunter on a cocaine/hooker binge. TV networks would kill for that market.

Some of top researchers in the world. Great connections to all massive global tech companies. Great connections to China, all of Asia, and more that will help make the Big a global network.
yep..no arguing that Stanford isn't one of the "cool kids" and a great get. But UCLA is no slouch and may have been necessary to get UCA (which breaks the log jam and kills the Pac Ten). Stanford will land somewhere and that probably won't be the pac ten. I'd also say nobody cares about any other college sports than football and basketball. All of the others a break-even or money losers. Most are paid for by football and basketball. If Standford's fencing or skull teams fold up, few will shed tears.
 

doctornick

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That's about right. Oregon and Washington will still be there at any point if the Big Ten wants them. The SEC isn't going after them and it doesn't matter what goes on with the Pac-12 or Big 12 - any team will jump from those conferences when given a chance.

Notre Dame is the next target for the Big Ten so they'll go full press there for now. No reason they can't sign the TV deals with the current 16 teams.
 

Jerry

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That's about right. Oregon and Washington will still be there at any point if the Big Ten wants them. The SEC isn't going after them and it doesn't matter what goes on with the Pac-12 or Big 12 - any team will jump from those conferences when given a chance.

Notre Dame is the next target for the Big Ten so they'll go full press there for now. No reason they can't sign the TV deals with the current 16 teams.

Notre Dame is key....still the biggest prize. The Big-10 has wanted the Irish for a very long time. Now, finally, the stars may have aligned.

It's hard to see Notre Dame going to the SEC. The Big-10 is preferable for reasons of culture, geography, and: money.

In fact, the financial equation has now totally changed. The Irish can do a lot better by joining the Big-10 than remaining an Independent. I think the sticking point might be the NBC deal, which Notre Dame would reportedly like to keep on the side.

So the question is whether the Big-10 would accommodate that. Does the huge plus of having Notre Dame on board outweigh the irritation of giving the Irish a special deal? If not, will Notre Dame finally wake up and smell the coffee? Or will the school attempt to play the SEC off against the Big-10?
 
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PSUSignore

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To be fair, Oregon and UDub may not be able to bring in an additional $100 million either, but there's always the possibility of Phil Knight buying Oregon's way in with a monster conference endorsement deal (9-10 figures) to the chagrin of UA.
The list of other possible candidates for the Big 10 likely starts and ends with the list of AAU members + Notre Dame. Watch them bring in Stanford, ND, OU and UW and then let the divisions be named by sponsors. West becomes the Nike division and the East becomes Under Armor. Puke.
 
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PSUSignore

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I wouldn’t get too excited. I’d imagine Notre Dame will spurn the ACC and accept a deal with the Big Ten sooner than later. At that point, we are sitting ducks for the SEC.
I suspect you are right with ND. I think they will be joining the Big 10 in relatively short order.
 
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