Northwestern favored by 3
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tOSU was on the quarter (not trimester--similar, though) system when I was in grad school there but went back to semesters 2-4 years ago. One reason was so that all Ohio school are on the same page so that credits transfer properly. The legislature actually did something good a few years back where they made all of the schools that get state money to accept each others' credits fully and completely (includes community colleges). Used to be a kid would go to community college and take equivalent classes and would be lucky to get a third to a half of the credits to count at one of the big boys. They do make sure that all the schools involved meet standards, of course.
The home team always gets 3 points. So, if the betting line were even, we would really be the favorite.
OK, if the OL that played against Illinois shows up we will win 28-17. NW will challenge the OL early with all out blitzing and use press coverage on our WRs, as everyone has since Temple. So, if we can hold strong early and make NW pay for that gamble they will back out of the pressure.
BUT only if our LBs can contain a "mobile" QB. We could not against Maryland, hence their defense never abandoned the "press coverage". They plan was last team with the ball wins.
OL and LB that is all ;-)
OK, if the OL that played against Illinois shows up we will win 28-17. NW will challenge the OL early with all out blitzing and use press coverage on our WRs, as everyone has since Temple. So, if we can hold strong early and make NW pay for that gamble they will back out of the pressure.
BUT only if our LBs can contain a "mobile" QB. We could not against Maryland, hence their defense never abandoned the "press coverage". They plan was last team with the ball wins.
OL and LB that is all ;-)
bdgan said:
It’s all about perspective. PSU pulled out a gutsy win against a Maryland team without anything to lose, playing in their super bowl after Maryland had a bye week to rest and prepare.
SR108 said:
Possibly. But if running the QB too much gets him taken out on a stretcher, then what will they do? I think they will try to use it selectively. I’m guessing there won’t be too many designed runs by the QB.
Ok? And to whom is that obvious prediction that PSU will not blow out NW directed? I didn't see anyone say that (the most optimistic I read was someone say it was 'potentially possible' or something like that), and even if some crazy homer did say that, it's obviously not anywhere remotely close to a consensus or even a trend in thought. In other words, it's another one of your straw men that you're using to, as royboy accurately points out, express your glass-half-empty POV.
We get that you'll never believe another PSU coach could be as good as Paterno (LOL), but you're going to have to accept that Joe is gone and he's never coming back. Nobody is asking you to be a blind homer, but your constant focus on only the negatives (other than positives that can't be ignored, like barkley) gives the impression that you have no ability to be objective.
Exactly, I don't think anybody has predicted a blowout as the "likely" scenario. The reality is that the best way to forecast outcomes is to contruct a multi-scenario probabilistic forecast - here is an example of a simplistic 3-scenario forecast:
- PSU wins fairly easily (33%)
- 50/50 Toss-up - Tight, low-scoring, defense-oriented game that could go either way (67%)
- NW wins fairly easily (0%)
That probabilistic scenario is not calling for a blowout - the diametric opposite in fact, but as you pointed out, this poster seems determined to put the words in somebody's mouth...why does he keep claiming something that nobody ever said? Things that make you go hhhhhhmmmm!
Actually, yes. Mason threw himself under the bus and said Penn State fans were all over him on twitter for his remarks about PSU after the MD game. He said he was wrong about this PSU team, kind of apologized and joked that he wouldn't upset our fanbase like that again. Good-natured, self-deprecating response by Mason. DiNardo made no such admissions.
They said they did not see that coming, PSU's margin of victory over Illinois. All three of them
i believe. They also said Franklin's best and most impressive win since he's been here.
So, you think NW feels it can get enough pressure just rushing four? Thus far only OSU was that good.
Here is Northwestern's record under Fitzgerald after an off week prior to a Big 10 game.
2014 - Lost 48-7 to 7-6 Iowa
2013 - Lost 40-30 to 10-2 OSU
2013 - Lost 27-19 to 7-6 Michigan
2012 - Lost 38-31 to 8-5 Michigan
2011 - Lost 38-35 to 7-6 Illinois
2010 - Lost 35-27 to 11-2 MSU
2008 - Lost 37-20 to 9-4 MSU
2014 - Lost 48-7 to 7-6 Iowa
2013 - Lost 40-30 to 10-2 OSU
2013 - Lost 27-19 to 7-6 Michigan
2012 - Lost 38-31 to 8-5 Michigan
2011 - Lost 38-35 to 7-6 Illinois
2010 - Lost 35-27 to 11-2 MSU
2008 - Lost 37-20 to 9-4 MSU
Under Franklin, in 2012, Vandy lost to NW 23-13. That was the 2nd game of the season for Vandy.
Last year...well, we know how that turned out. Other than MSU, it was PSU's worst loss last year.
Relevance? Who knows...some coaches seem to get the better of other coaches... Could be the thing mentioned above where NW is on tri-mesters and therefore tougher at the beginning of the season. Facts is facts, Franklin and Fitz have squared off twice and Fitz won both games. I would imagine Franklin would like to stop that trend this Saturday.
I am saying that is simply not what Northwestern does. Its not their defensive MO.
They play 4 man fronts with 3 stacked linebackers....and 5 man fronts (with the SSOLB coming down over the strong side of the offensive line) with 2 stacked LBers.....and they don't blitz much.
Even in passing downs they tend to go with a nickel and 2 LBers and play primarily zone.
They will blitz on occasion, usually with 5, but not many "all out blitzes with press coverage".
Same with Illinois last week.
Could they come out with that? Sure they could.
If they were to do so it would be completely out of character......and very rarely, in the college game, does a team DRASTICALLY alter what "they do".
It would be akin to PSU seeing that a particular defense doesn't handle the QB/TB read option well....and institute a read-option attack for a particular week.
I think NW was the first team to expose our offensive line deficiencies last year and pretty much wrote the book on how to defend PSU the rest of the year. I think if our offensive line can play well we have a good chance to win.
I was concerned about NW having the week off before this game but after seeing Fitzgerald's 0-7 Big 10 record after byes I'm a bit less concerned. That's an impressive record!
I was concerned about NW having the week off before this game but after seeing Fitzgerald's 0-7 Big 10 record after byes I'm a bit less concerned. That's an impressive record!
meh, that just means the oddsmakers think it's even and they give the standard 3 pts for home field.
it is an 11am game for us. NW has had a week off to prep and Fitz is great at that. we are playing AT NW. Their DEF front 7 can really play and come aggressive, their DBs hold very subtly which helps the front 7 and their QB is a runner (look at his runs v Stanford = key to their win). the QB runs have been key in most of their wins.
none of these points favor us. I would take a win by 1. I think the line will grow to more like 7 pts.
Actually, Rutgers - second game of the year last year - exposed our OL deficiencies pretty well.
This game could very well go down to which O-line holds up better against the opposing D-line.
PSU has the edge in skill players on O, but if the 'Cats win the battle in the trenches, that will be negated.
Fitz is a decent coach but has a tendency to be go into his shell - and like the criticism of Ferentz and Franklin - has a tendency to be overly conservative (also, frankly, never been a fan of NU's current OC).
The 'Cats are getting their best corner back so should allow NU's DC to be more aggressive (but did lose one of their starting DTs).
NU's OC hasn't utilized NU's QB's legs enough this season - not a particularly shifty runner but has unexpected speed for a bigger QB (both Stanford's and NEB's LB spy misjudged Thorson's speed).
Still a bit raw as a passer and NU's receiving corps hasn't really helped things.
On paper - PSU has the edge, but then again PSU had the edge last year against an injury-riddled NU team and look what happened.
Franklin at Vandy lost once to NU (the other Vandy loss was under the previous coach) and we never got a chance to see the 3rd/4th game btwn the 2 as Vandy canceled the series at the last moment via snail mail.
PSU has the edge in skill players on O, but if the 'Cats win the battle in the trenches, that will be negated.
Fitz is a decent coach but has a tendency to be go into his shell - and like the criticism of Ferentz and Franklin - has a tendency to be overly conservative (also, frankly, never been a fan of NU's current OC).
The 'Cats are getting their best corner back so should allow NU's DC to be more aggressive (but did lose one of their starting DTs).
NU's OC hasn't utilized NU's QB's legs enough this season - not a particularly shifty runner but has unexpected speed for a bigger QB (both Stanford's and NEB's LB spy misjudged Thorson's speed).
Still a bit raw as a passer and NU's receiving corps hasn't really helped things.
On paper - PSU has the edge, but then again PSU had the edge last year against an injury-riddled NU team and look what happened.
Franklin at Vandy lost once to NU (the other Vandy loss was under the previous coach) and we never got a chance to see the 3rd/4th game btwn the 2 as Vandy canceled the series at the last moment via snail mail.
Huh? Fitz has not won a game vs a Big 10 opponent after an off week. His only win after an off week was last year when he beat an FCS school Western Illinois.
All it takes to get after running QB's is fast linebackers in position. I didn't know ours were that slow.
Yeah, I recorded and watched a replay of the Final Drive show last night. I don't recall hearing Mason make that comment (but then I often fast forward whenever it's his turn to speak). I did see Revsine jab DiNardo a couple times, and DiNardo once tried to deflect the criticism onto Howard Griffith. Howard basically gave him the FU look and said "that wasn't me!"
It also takes an understanding of assignment defense and discipline. Something that young Linebackers often have a problem with.
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