Next up, Michigan! and a couple thoughts

KCLion

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Yep. Brady 'certifying' at 165 only means he is was between 157.1 and 165. If he so desires to go down to 157, that action will be governed by a decent plan. Certifying in no way fixes his weight at 165 for the season.

I will remain on an island and say his target is 157 despite the breadcrumbs we have been fed.

Given the relative strengths of the two weight classes and Edsel vs Negron's performances to date it seems Brady at 157 makes the most sense for potential team points.

The only reason to keep Brady up at 165 is if Brady himself doesn't want to do the decent. For all we know he was walking around at 175 a few weeks ago and has already had to cut to get down to 165. I don't think so, but it is possible.

It would be interesting to know his (Brady’s) thoughts.
 

Junglekitty

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Statistically, it is very unlikely that all those happen.
You are correct, that's why I didn't predict that to happen. But, it is a possibility. There are a number of things that statistically are unlikely to happen. Winning 8 out of 9 National Championships, putting 4-5 in the finals, going 4-4 in the finals. However, I would bet my savings on going 4-4 in the finals rather than only winning 1 match against Michigan.
 

mcpat

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I’d be happy if Berge made the podium at 65, but as blue as my glasses are I just cant see him beating any of Marinelli, Hamiti, Griffith??, Karchla, O’Toole, Wick, Wittlake. You see something different?
Yes. He won two matches at nationals as a freshman wrestling a weight that was prob too low for him to expect more when making weight on multiple days. His second trip to nationals, just this past March, saw him win his first two, knocking off an AA in the process, before an injury forced his withdrawal in the quarters.

Berge might win by decision a lot, but that's true of a ton of All Americans and national champs. I can definitely see him beating any those guys. His pedigree is equal or better and none of them have ever looked unbeatable.
 
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McScoreley

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I remember there were a lot of tweets after Brady retired initially to the lines of "None of you knew truly how good Brady is" Him going 149 was a brutal cut that was doomed to fail from the start then it's been injuries. I still remember he beat Humphreys in his first match after a concussion but it was just a tough mental hump to get over.

If Brady is healthy and in shape then just let him go where he's most comfortable. I still remember Cael made some comments before NCAAs last year that Brady was finally starting to come around mentally mainly and it was of course the best he ever looked before he got injured.
 

tbay165

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It's only January 18. Still time for the coaches to get 157 and 165 settled. Time is winding down however, so who we see this weekend and next are key.

I had this discussion with a fellow board member recently. It's not who has the likelihood of scoring the most points at 157 OR 165, it's the best combo that has the likelihood of scoring the most combined points at 157 AND 165.
The coaches don't always "get it settled". We usually have 1 or 2 "holes" every year. The way it looks 157 will be one this year. We just don't need 2 or 3, so 149 and 165 are more key in my mind.
 

Sportfan2017

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Can we get one of our spies......err.....I mean fans.....to peek at the scale when Berge weighs in this weekend? It would certainly eliminate a lot of consternation and typing :)
 

RoarLions1

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Maybe I am confused..tell me where I'm wrong.

track lists 165 as the weight (meaning he weighed in anywhere from 157.1 to 165). WesttoEast asked what weight he certed at. I say 165 and you say I'm wrong?

What did I say that was wrong? It's my understanding that once you weigh in you can descend down per week if you wanted to go lower just like everyone else listed on track. So in other words, he can wrestle 165 right away (which he did), or depending on what he weighed in at, he could possible try to descend down to a lower weight class given the 1.5% per week

I'm not trying to be argumentative..just assumed the way I described is how it worked. Trying to understand what I'm missing?
If I'm understanding your post, the problem is in the third paragraph. A wrestler can only go as low as the LAW (Lowest Allowable Weight) calculation allows them. Once the LAW is known, then the certified weight class is known. It is only done once per season, is unalterable, and no wrestler can go below his Certified Weight Class.

Your words suggest he can go on a descent plan and end wherever he wants. That's not true, as the safety of the wrestler limits his Lowest Allowable Weight to a hydrated body with at least 5% body fat. They are limiting weight loss to avoid the situations in 1997, when three wrestlers died from dehydration/hyperthermia.

The Trackwrestling site does not list the certified weight classes. It is something different. As examples, if RBY's "certified" weight class was 141, as listed on Track, it would be against the rules to wrestle 133. Same for N. Lee (149, as listed on Track), Edsell (174), and Brooks (197), among others. So, in short, these are not the certified weight classes at all.

Hope this helps.
 

PSU Mike

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Maybe I am confused..tell me where I'm wrong.

track lists 165 as the weight (meaning he weighed in anywhere from 157.1 to 165). WesttoEast asked what weight he certed at. I say 165 and you say I'm wrong?

What did I say that was wrong? It's my understanding that once you weigh in you can descend down per week if you wanted to go lower just like everyone else listed on track. So in other words, he can wrestle 165 right away (which he did), or depending on what he weighed in at, he could possible try to descend down to a lower weight class given the 1.5% per week

I'm not trying to be argumentative..just assumed the way I described is how it worked. Trying to understand what I'm missing?
You’re leaving out an important part. He can’t go any lower than the calculated body weight at 5% body fat. So if he weighed exactly 165 after meeting hydration test at cert time, his minimum weigh in is 165 - 165(x%-5%). This also obviously locks in a lowest weight class as well. The descent rules are additional restrictions on weight changes beyond that. But the rule above cannot be violated.
 

RoarLions1

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So basically in all these cases the “LAW” is the unknown to the public. I just assumed wherever the weights are listed on track, you would be able to go below assuming proper descent rules. But you’re saying for example..If Brady weighed in at let’s say 165 but his “law” was 158, then he couldn’t descend down to 157?

am I on the right path?
Yes, you are on the right path.

The OPC system is where all the raw data is entered. Only the school where the student-athlete wrestles has access to that wrestler's data. No other school does, and certainly not the public.

The hydration part of the process is a go/no-go measure. In other words, current body weight and body fat % cannot be determined until the hydration (urine specific gravity </= 1.02) metric is met. Sometimes, a wrestler must return the next day, more fully hydrated.

Current body weight and % body fat are then used to determine LAW. % body fat can be measured one of three ways. This math is fairly simple; using current body weight, subtract the calculated fat weight until the body is at 5% body fat.

Voila, you have the Lowest Allowable Weight. The weight class above this number is the certified weight class.
 

Split shot

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You’re leaving out an important part. He can’t go any lower than the calculated body weight at 5% body fat. So if he weighed exactly 165 after meeting hydration test at cert time, his minimum weigh in is 165 - 165(x%-5%). This also obviously locks in a lowest weight class as well. The descent rules are additional restrictions on weight changes beyond that. But the rule above cannot be violated.

You’re leaving out an important part. He can’t go any lower than the calculated body weight at 5% body fat. So if he weighed exactly 165 after meeting hydration test at cert time, his minimum weigh in is 165 - 165(x%-5%). This also obviously locks in a lowest weight class as well. The descent rules are additional restrictions on weight changes beyond that. But the rule above cannot be violated.
A wee bit off subject here, but does anybody have an educated guess, or for that matter a wild ass guess as to what Suriano's body fat % would be??? He did not look to have much body fat when he wrestled 133, and he damn sure does not appear to have much now.
 

Creek Side

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A wee bit off subject here, but does anybody have an educated guess, or for that matter a wild ass guess as to what Suriano's body fat % would be??? He did not look to have much body fat when he wrestled 133, and he damn sure does not appear to have much now.
Its weird but I've wondered the same thing. My wild ass guess would be like 6-7%. I just watched a video about a guy training in bodybuilding and he got down to 4%. It was kind of crazy that his skin appeared to be like a thin layer of cling wrap over muscle and veins. Suriano didn't appear to be quite there... but close.

Edit on my wild ass guess. 5-6%
 
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Creek Side

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My minimum measured was 6.7% as a 30 year old runner and Suriano makes the old me look like Jabba the Hut. I was told I did carry my fat just under the skin, though.
So out of curiosity I went back and watched that video again that I was thinking about as a reference. So after seeing this guy at the point in time when he took his plunge to get tested, Suriano is definitely leaner than him. This dude's results said 4.4% so if I were to place a bet now it would be on less than that.
 
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PSU Mike

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So out of curiosity I went back and watched that video again that I was thinking about as a reference. So after seeing this guy at the point in time when he took his plunge to get tested, Suriano is definitely leaner than him. This dude's results said 4.4% so if I were to place a bet now it would be on less than that.
Not sure I’m following you, but I’d say the looks test may not be the most accurate.
 
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KCLion

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I'm going to say it. Brady Berge can beat Shane Griffith.
Can or will? We were in full agreement on CStar going all the way last year, but dang that would be a very bold prediction!!! From your thoughts to Brady’s confidence.
 

McScoreley

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Brady should put himself in most matches. He doesn't give up many bad points and is very positionally sound. He looked to be in shape against Clark also and for the first time since his head injury, he's comfortable with wearing a regular headgear. Quite honestly, Drew, Beau and Brady are all similar profile wrestlers. Will be in one score matches very often against NQ level guys. You hope they are gamers in March and our coaches will have them ready. I'll take our first 6 scorers (4 returning champs + Max + Kerk) and those next 3 any day. Last year, we scored 4.5 at 4 weights (1.5 from 125, 0 from 149, 3 from 157 and 0 from 165) so plenty of room to improve there even if we expect nothing from 157.
 

82bordeaux

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Can Brady get the 8 seed?
giphy.gif
 
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johnstownsteel

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Something I find odd. On my work phone (which my IT dept has placed restrictions) I can read and post in every thread except this one. For some reason, when I click on this thread and this thread only, it gives me a message saying I cannot browse this page because it is restricted. Weird. Lol
 
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82bordeaux

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Something I find odd. On my work phone (which my IT dept has placed restrictions) I can read and post in every thread except this one. For some reason, when I click on this thread and this thread only, it gives me a message saying I cannot browse this page because it is restricted. Weird. Lol
They know that it's your work phone...
And Michigan Still Sucks!
 
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El-Jefe

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Something I find odd. On my work phone (which my IT dept has placed restrictions) I can read and post in every thread except this one. For some reason, when I click on this thread and this thread only, it gives me a message saying I cannot browse this page because it is restricted. Weird. Lol
The word "thoughts" in the title is problematic?
 

Cowbell Man

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Brady’s most likely certified LAW is 157. Getting down there within rules and being ready when he gets there is a different discussion.
Whether coaches want him there, yet another discussion.

Leave it to Trackwrestling to create confusion on what a weight certification is vs a certified weight on a given day.

And just to add to the confusion, an official weigh in has a big bearing on ability to descent and can also affect an LAW upwards as a season goes on. :) . (If you don’t know about that, there’s a Bubba Jenkins story to help spell it out)
 

Junglekitty

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My understanding is Brady wanted to go 157 but was told that is not happening , be it health concerns or something else I do not know.
It is interesting that you heard this compared to what I have been told. My understanding was basically they preferred him at 57, but it was ultimately up to him since he helped regardless of weight. I was also told that he can definitely make it, but as of now is choosing not to, but a final decision on final weight has not been made.
 
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98lberEating2Lunches

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It is interesting that you heard this compared to what I have been told. My understanding was basically they preferred him at 57, but it was ultimately up to him since he helped regardless of weight. I was also told that he can definitely make it, but as of now is choosing not to, but a final decision on final weight has not been made.
There's an active disinformation campaign to keep all guessing. That, or a lot BSers. 😉
 

aalion

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Bumping this since Michigan dual is 48 hours away…

Is this going 5-5 with bonus making the difference?

Is there any matchup that would shock anyone regardless of who won on either team? All matchups are even or at least have upset potential no?
 

AndEEss

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RBY has the greatest chance of scoring bonus. I really hope he doesn’t win by 6 with two minutes of riding time. He’s substantially better than Ragusin and I hope he pushes the entire match.

That said, if Cam Amine doesn’t go, it might not matter.

Also, we’re going to find out if Kerk can hang on bottom. I really hope he has improved there. If not, he could get bonused, badly. He’s 10lbs heavier, yes. But is he actually better on bottom? He hasn’t had anyone remotely comparable to Parris or Cass since he wrestled those two last year. Maybe Snyder and Varner have been pounding on him, but I don’t know that they are big enough to replicate that.
 
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