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Nevills and/or Cassar - 285 Predcitions

dmm53

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Feb 4, 2017
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Who is it going to be at 285: Nevills or Cassar ... or a dual meet combination of the two fighting it out for the position? Can either become a National Champion? Before Stevenson (a true freshman) entered the mix, it was a distinct likelihood or strong possibility. It still might be. (Aside: The refs may need to stop and frisk Stoll at Big Tens and Nationals since he may be packing some heat.) Hopefully, both our guys are healthy and ready to rise to the challenge.

Here are the predictions (via FLO and Andrew Spey):

1st: Gable Steveson, Minnesota

2nd: Sam Stoll, Iowa

3rd: Nick Nevills, Penn State

4th: Yousiff Hemida, Maryland

5th: Tanner Hall, Arizona State

6th: Derek White, Oklahoma State

7th: Billy Miller, Virginia Tech

8th: Thomas Haines, Lock Haven

R12: Jere Heino, Campbell

R12: Conan Jennings, Northwestern

R12: Shawn Streck, Central Michigan

R12: Chase Singletary, Ohio State
 
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Some key matchup dates at 285:
  • November 18 - Oklahoma State at Minnesota (White vs Steveson)
  • November 30 - George Mason at Lock Haven (Haines vs Voss)
  • December 2 - Lehigh at Penn State (Wood vs Nevills or Cassar)
  • December 8 - Lehigh at Iowa (Wood vs Stoll)
  • December 14 - Arizona St. at Penn State (Hall vs Nevills or Cassar)
  • January 13 - Iowa at Minnesota (Stoll vs Steveson)
  • February 3 - Lehigh at Oklahoma State (Wood v White)
  • February 10 - Maryland at Minnesota (Hemida vs Steveson)
  • February 24 - Iowa at Oklahoma State (Stoll vs White)
 
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Rankings (via FLO) at 285 (note: true freshman don't get initially ranked)
Rank Grade Name School Previous Rank

1 SR Sam Stoll Iowa 5
2 SR Nick Nevills Penn State 7
3 SR Youssif Hemida Maryland 8
4 SR Derek White OK State 10
5 SR Tanner Hall Arizona State 16
6 SO Jordan Wood Lehigh 11
7 SR Billy Miller Virginia Tech 13
8 SR Jere Heino Campbell 15
9 SR Thomas Haines Lock Haven 17
10 SR Conan Jennings Northwestern 19
11 SO Shawn Streck Purdue 12
12 SR Matt Voss George Mason 18
13 SR Jeramy Sweany Cornell 20
14 SR Cory Daniel North Carolina NR
15 SO Matt Stencel Central Michigan NR
16 FR Tate Orndorff Utah Valley NR
17 SO AJ Nevills Fresno State NR
18 SR Joey Goodhart Drexel NR
19 SR Jake Gunning Buffalo NR
20 SR Antonio Pelusi Franklin & Marshall NR
 
Nevill's matches last year:

Video Opponent School Date Event Weight W/L By How
#16 Hemida, Youssef (30 - 8) #44 Maryland 03/15 NCAA Championships 285 W DEC 7 - 5
#8 Stoll, Sam (25 - 6) #6 Iowa 03/15 NCAA Championships 285 L SV-1 5 - 1
#18 Heino, Jere (27 - 7) #37 Campbell 03/15 NCAA Championships 285 W DEC 6 - 1
#6 Dhesi, Amarveer (25 - 3) #40 Oregon State 03/15 NCAA Championships 285 L DEC 4 - 2
#19 Boykin, Michael (21 - 8) #4 North Carolina State 03/15 NCAA Championships 285 W TB-2 5 - 4
#54 Suglio, Stephen (19 - 10) #47 Kent State 03/15 NCAA Championships 285 W FALL 5:24
#8 Stoll, Sam (25 - 6) #6 Iowa 03/03 Big Ten Championships 285 W DEC 5 - 2
#1 Snyder, Kyle (17 - 1) #1 Ohio State 03/03 Big Ten Championships 285 L MD 14 - 5
#26 Jennings, Conan (24 - 12) #18 Northwestern 03/03 Big Ten Championships 285 W DEC 5 - 0
#16 Hemida, Youssef (30 - 8) #44 Maryland 03/03 Big Ten Championships 285 W DEC 6 - 1
#62 Rachal, Deuce (10 - 12) #20 Illinois 03/03 Big Ten Championships 285 W MD 11 - 3
#66 Terrance, Nolan (12 - 9) #55 Buffalo 02/18 Buffalo - Penn State Dual 285 W FALL 2:48
#8 Stoll, Sam (25 - 6) #6 Iowa 02/10 Iowa - Penn State Dual 285 W DEC 3 - 2
#1 Snyder, Kyle (17 - 1) #1 Ohio State 02/03 Ohio State - Penn State Dual 285 L DEC 15 - 10
#89 Normandia, Ralph (7 - 10) #21 Rutgers 01/28 Penn State - Rutgers Dual 285 W MD 21 - 7
#57 Streifel, Rylee (12 - 15) #19 Minnesota 01/26 Minnesota - Penn State Dual 285 W DEC 2 - 0
#16 Hemida, Youssef (30 - 8) #44 Maryland 01/21 Penn State - Maryland Dual 285 W DEC 4 - 1
#28 Streck, Shawn (30 - 15) #29 Purdue 01/19 Purdue - Penn State Dual 285 W DEC 4 - 2
#223 Lloyd, Matt (11 - 15) #51 Michigan State 01/14 Penn State - Michigan State Dual 285 W FALL 6:35
#2 Coon, Adam (29 - 2) #3 Michigan 01/12 Penn State - Michigan Dual 285 L MD 8 - 0
#11 Wood, Jordan (22 - 7) #5 Lehigh 01/01 Southern Scuffle 285 W MFOR 0 - 0
#129 Love, Tyler (8 - 19) #30 Virginia 01/01 Southern Scuffle 285 W DEC 3 - 0
#235 Price, Jackson (6 - 11) #67 Gardner-Webb 01/01 Southern Scuffle 285 W FALL 1:42
#19 Boykin, Michael (21 - 8) #4 North Carolina State 01/01 Southern Scuffle 285 L DEC 4 - 3
#34 Voss, Matthew (24 - 12) #64 George Mason 01/01 Southern Scuffle 285 W MD 11 - 2
#9 Butler, Nathan (26 - 9) #42 Stanford 01/01 Southern Scuffle 285 L DEC 2 - 0
#5 Hughes, Michael (38 - 6) #50 Hofstra 01/01 Southern Scuffle 285 W DEC 4 - 1
#76 Miller, Fletcher (14 - 12) #46 Indiana 12/17 Indiana - Penn State Dual 285 W MD 11 - 3
#11 Wood, Jordan (22 - 7) #5 Lehigh 12/03 Penn State - Lehigh Dual 285 W DEC 2 - 0
#51 Miller, Cary (18 - 9) #38 Appalachian State 11/19 Keystone Classic 285 W DEC 4 - 0
#235 Koch, Jake (1 - 17) #75 VMI 11/19 Keystone Classic 285 W FALL 1:40
#104 Hall, Tyler (12 - 11) #24 Pennsylvania 11/19 Keystone Classic 285 W MD 12 - 3
#40 Hutchison, Gage (19 - 8) #43 Eastern Michigan 11/19 Keystone Classic 285 W DEC 5 - 0
#3 Kasper, Jacob (38 - 4) #34 Duke 11/19 Keystone Classic 285 W DEC 3 - 1
Calkins, Connor Rochester Institute of Technology 11/17 Penn State - Binghamton Dual 285 W MD 12 - 3
#211 Chakonis, Eric (1 - 8) #58 Bucknell 11/12 Bucknell - Penn State Dual 285 W DEC 11 - 4
#87 Heald, Bobby (12 - 17) #33 Army 11/09 Army - Penn State Dual 285 W FALL 6:10
 
Cassar's 2018 record

#4 Moore, Kollin (27 - 4) #1 Ohio State 02/03 Ohio State - Penn State Dual 197 W DEC 6 - 3
#151 Messner, Anthony (2 - 13) #21 Rutgers 01/28 Penn State - Rutgers Dual 197 W MD 16 - 5
#54 Whisler, David-Brian (14 - 5) #44 Maryland 01/21 Penn State - Maryland Dual 197 W MD 14 - 5
#125 May, Nick (7 - 23) #51 Michigan State 01/14 Penn State - Michigan State Dual 197 W MD 16 - 2
#14 Holschlag, Jacob (23 - 12) #26 Northern Iowa 01/01 Southern Scuffle 197 L SV-1 6 - 4
#44 Sponseller, Tristan (13 - 15) #14 Lock Haven 01/01 Southern Scuffle 197 W DEC 13 - 10
#19 Loiseau, Stephen (32 - 11) #16 Drexel 01/01 Southern Scuffle 197 W DEC 4 - 1
#28 Boykin, Scottie (26 - 8) #32 Chattanooga 01/01 Southern Scuffle 197 W SV-1 9 - 7
#215 Irick, Spencer (2 - 9) #46 Indiana 12/17 Indiana - Penn State Dual 197 W MD 16 - 5
#31 Jakobsen, Jake (10 - 8) #5 Lehigh 12/03 Penn State - Lehigh Dual 197 W DEC 8 - 3
#146 Ng, Robert (1 - 5) #24 Pennsylvania 11/19 Keystone Classic 197 W MD 12 - 4
#16 McCutcheon, Matt (5 - 3) #2 Penn State 11/19 Keystone Classic 197 W DEC 6 - 5
#62 Schenk, Alec (20 - 17) #34 Duke 11/19 Keystone Classic 197 W DEC 12 - 5
#10 Mattiace, Frank (31 - 8) #24 Pennsylvania 11/19 Keystone Classic 197 W DEC 7 - 4
#76 Tracy, Mark (9 - 6) #49 Binghamton 11/17 Penn State - Binghamton Dual 197 W DEC 10 - 4
#46 Hoffman, Garrett (9 - 6) #58 Bucknell 11/12 Bucknell - Penn State Dual 197 L DEC 11 - 8
#43 Caywood, Rocco (18 - 14) #33 Army 11/09 Army - Penn State Dual 197 W DEC 10 - 3
 
I just do not understand why everybody (well, except for blue and white fans) keep picking Stoll over Nevills. Nick beat Sam twice last year and only lost once, at NCAA's when Nick (probably) came away with an injury. His shoulder was heavily wrapped in his next bout. Nick won 3-2 in the regular dual and 5-2 at BIGS. Sam won 3-1 in OT. I just don't see the Sam love.
 
Let us not dismiss the idea that Nevills goes this year and Cassar gets an extra year and goes next year while Seth Redshirts. Makes more sense if Nevills is healthy.
 
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I just do not understand why everybody (well, except for blue and white fans) keep picking Stoll over Nevills. Nick beat Sam twice last year and only lost once, at NCAA's when Nick (probably) came away with an injury. His shoulder was heavily wrapped in his next bout. Nick won 3-2 in the regular dual and 5-2 at BIGS. Sam won 3-1 in OT. I just don't see the Sam love.

True.....but didn't I read that Stoll is much improved...... I thought I read he got a big shot in the arm over the summer working with teammates. I know it was an appendage anyway
 
True.....but didn't I read that Stoll is much improved...... I thought I read he got a big shot in the arm over the summer working with teammates. I know it was an appendage anyway

No, it was a ''knee jerk" reaction, literally.

Call me insane but I think either NN or Cassar has a real shot at being a NC
 
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I just do not understand why everybody (well, except for blue and white fans) keep picking Stoll over Nevills. Nick beat Sam twice last year and only lost once, at NCAA's when Nick (probably) came away with an injury. His shoulder was heavily wrapped in his next bout. Nick won 3-2 in the regular dual and 5-2 at BIGS. Sam won 3-1 in OT. I just don't see the Sam love.
I understand why. They are very close.
Throw out the victory for Nevills at home because, one he was at home, and two he put himself in a bad position and Stoll, in his reaction, put himself in bad position.
Just like Imar vs Cenzo, Stoll won when it counted, at NCAAs. I wouldn't put money on either guy TBH, they both have their moments. Nevills lost to Boykin and then beat him (TB-2). Stoll put a beat down on Hermida 8-1 at B1Gs and then received a beat down from him at NCAAs 7-2.
Far from exciting matches when they meet, other than either one of them could win each time.
 
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I understand why. They are very close.
Throw out the victory for Nevills at home because, one he was at home, and two he put himself in a bad position and Stoll, in his reaction, put himself in bad position.
Just like Imar vs Cenzo, Stoll won when it counted, at NCAAs. I wouldn't put money on either guy TBH, they both have their moments. Nevills lost to Boykin and then beat him (TB-2). Stoll put a beat down on Hermida 8-1 at B1Gs and then received a beat down from him at NCAAs 7-2.
Far from exciting matches when they meet, other than either one of them could win each time.

I agree, I put it at a bit of a toss up but leaning to Nick, but everyone not wearing blue and white seems to pick Sam.
 
I agree, I put it at a bit of a toss up but leaning to Nick, but everyone not wearing blue and white seems to pick Sam.
I guess I misunderstood you then, sorry. I don't know who I would pick, and I will be wearing Blue and White. I understand why they are ranked that way is all. If "everyone" is picking Stoll outside of Happy Valley they haven't seen how close they are apparently. They could all easily end up accidentally being right, or another split, who knows. I would rank Stoll higher due to NCAAs is what I was saying.
 
Who is it going to be at 285: Nevills or Cassar ... or a dual meet combination of the two fighting it out for the position? Can either become a National Champion? Before Stevenson (a true freshman) entered the mix, it was a distinct likelihood or strong possibility. It still might be. (Aside: The refs may need to stop and frisk Stoll at Big Tens and Nationals since he may be packing some heat.) Hopefully, both our guys are healthy and ready to rise to the challenge.

Here are the predictions (via FLO and Andrew Spey):

1st: Gable Steveson, Minnesota

2nd: Sam Stoll, Iowa

3rd: Nick Nevills, Penn State

4th: Yousiff Hemida, Maryland

5th: Tanner Hall, Arizona State

6th: Derek White, Oklahoma State

7th: Billy Miller, Virginia Tech

8th: Thomas Haines, Lock Haven

R12: Jere Heino, Campbell

R12: Conan Jennings, Northwestern

R12: Shawn Streck, Central Michigan

R12: Chase Singletary, Ohio State
Outstanding DMM. Did I miss 125? And why are some 1-8 and others 1-Rd12? Appreciate your post.
 
Outstanding DMM. Did I miss 125? And why are some 1-8 and others 1-Rd12? Appreciate your post.

All the weights are now posted. You might have to scroll down a bit to get to 125. Andrew Spey at FLO predicted to the round of 12 (he did half the weights) while Nomad only predicted to the top 8 (AAs) and he did the other half.
 
Outstanding DMM. Did I miss 125? And why are some 1-8 and others 1-Rd12? Appreciate your post.

All the weights are now posted. You might have to scroll down a bit to get to 125. Andrew Spey at FLO predicted to the round of 12 (he did half the weights) while Nomad only predicted to the top 8 (AAs) and he did the other half.

I've added links to all your posts at the sticky thread:

https://bwi.forums.rivals.com/threads/2018-19-season-previews-by-roar-cali-and-dmm53.215642/
 
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I guess I misunderstood you then, sorry. I don't know who I would pick, and I will be wearing Blue and White. I understand why they are ranked that way is all. If "everyone" is picking Stoll outside of Happy Valley they haven't seen how close they are apparently. They could all easily end up accidentally being right, or another split, who knows. I would rank Stoll higher due to NCAAs is what I was saying.

No sorry necessary, and by everyone, I say my non scientific survey of flo and message boards, to me, and only my opinion, the conventional wisdom seems to go with Sam. I understand the “win when it mattered” mindset, but I cant get past the bandaged shoulder after that meet. To me that discounts it a bit, more than offset by the two Nick wins. Even the NCAA win had to go to OT. But, it really doesnt matter, they can settle it on the mat. Just reason to talk.
 
Call me insane but I think either NN or Cassar has a real shot at being a NC
Not insane for Nevills, though he has to [1] get and stay healthy, and [2] be more consistent against the top guys. Could happen, but wouldn't bank on it.

Conversely, it's at least 83% insane for Cassar. If he is PSU's heavy in 2018-19, reaching AA would be a tremendous accomplishment IMO. Any NC talk is crazy.
 
I just do not understand why everybody (well, except for blue and white fans) keep picking Stoll over Nevills. Nick beat Sam twice last year and only lost once, at NCAA's when Nick (probably) came away with an injury. His shoulder was heavily wrapped in his next bout. Nick won 3-2 in the regular dual and 5-2 at BIGS. Sam won 3-1 in OT. I just don't see the Sam love.
I almost posted same thing ... I don’t get it either
 
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I just do not understand why everybody (well, except for blue and white fans) keep picking Stoll over Nevills. Nick beat Sam twice last year and only lost once, at NCAA's when Nick (probably) came away with an injury. His shoulder was heavily wrapped in his next bout. Nick won 3-2 in the regular dual and 5-2 at BIGS. Sam won 3-1 in OT. I just don't see the Sam love.
You are quite correct. Recency bias has everyone putting Stoll ahead of Nevills. However, when both are healthy, Nevills is clearly better.
 
I just do not understand why everybody (well, except for blue and white fans) keep picking Stoll over Nevills.
The best way to explain this, it is similar to the last several years, where the ranking services had us finishing the year 2nd to, name the opponent, and guess who ultimately won the NCAA championship.
 
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