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NCAA Tournament Analytics – by your friend UFF (bonus points)

Unbiased_football_fan

Well-Known Member
Aug 18, 2006
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3) Bonus points/style

Ah, my last and favorite factor to consider. Why? Because attacking wrestling is awesome to watch. Tilts are exciting. I love watching Spencer Lee. Mat scrambling is fun! PSU has a clear advantage in most years in this department. Iowa averages about 10 bonus points less a year than PSU. That is an extra 4th place wrestler. During Cael’s tenure PSU has averaged 2.4 bonus points per qualifier while Iowa has averaged 1.3. One of the talking heads on FRL on the last episode said that Iowa was likely to overcome PSU’s better rankings going forward because Iowa would have more bonus points (because in one past year Iowa had more bonus points). If you can’t see you are desperate for Iowa to win a title using this logic I can’t help you.

PSU had a lot of top guys who were bonus machines though, so what about that? For wrestlers #3 through unranked, PSU guys averaged 1.33 bonus points and Iowa 1.06. The argument still holds.

Let’s look specifically at this year’s lineups (this was prior to this year):

Shown is the Winning % against Top 32 (tournament field), Top 16 (most of wrestlebacks), and Bonus % against Top 32. We don’t care about bonus points and winning percentage against scrubs, we care about it against the best of the best.

Wrestler Top 32% Top 16% Bonus%
Lee 81 73 56
DeSanto 68 60 21
Murin 25 13 0
Lugo 47 13 6
Young 67 53 19
Marinelli 85 82 15
Kemerer 80 70 40
Wilcke 50 11 13
Warner 67 50 13
Cass 50 0 25 (very small sample starting year)

Wrestler Top 32% Top 16% Bonus%
Teske NA NA NA (now Meredith)
RBY 61 50 22
Lee 75 67 38
Verk 0 0 0 (small sample)
Berge 50 50 0
Joseph 86 80 36
Hall 95 93 25
Rasheed 83 60 42 (now at 197)
Conel 53 56 20
Cassar 94 91 53 (replaced by Nevills)

All of this looks like about 13 bonus points for Iowa and 22 for PSU (with current lineups, not those above).

For both teams, if you have a guy that wins matches against Top 16 guys at a 60% rate, he only has about a 30% chance of making the semifinals. This is tough business for these guys, some are going to succeed and some are going to fail, all should be respected.

I think the style of collar ties, pushing on your opponent for the whole first period, dropping on ankles while “riding”, not working for tilts – does not equate to tournament success. The margin for error is too small. You can’t make any mistakes. Iowa has 4 guys that are like this (Murin, Lugo, Young, Warner). All are much more likely to wrestle significantly below seed than above. Outside of Lee against his first three opponents, Kemerer first two, and maybe Marinelli first two (but see data above), there aren’t a lot of bonus points there. I don't have any hatred towards Iowa, their coaches, or their fans. Any I have talked to have been great people. I would prefer if an attacking style wins over a more passive style, that is all.

The different in bonus points/style changes the probabilities even further, to about 63% PSU 37% Iowa. It may seem crazy but that is where things are, going to be a fun couple of months!

For PSU – Need Berge to get in the lineup and healthy, Rasheed to get confident, and we will find out just how good Brooks and Nevills are. I like it that PSU is the underdog, I just don't like it that they aren't at full strength. I am anxious to see how the young guys do and develop.

We are!
 
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