NCAA Seeding

IwasAwful

Well-Known Member
Jan 17, 2020
59
165
1
I dumped it all into Excel, and that's not what I got at all.
59/80 AAs were seeded top 8
17/80 AAs were seeded 9-12

Combined that's 76/80 seeded within 1 win of the podium. That strikes me as really good.

Details below -- for example, every champ was seeded top 2.

Seed​
Placement
1​
2​
3​
4​
5​
6​
7​
8​
9-1213-1617-24Grand Total
1
7​
3​
10​
2
1​
3​
1​
2​
1​
1​
1​
10​
3
2​
2​
1​
2​
1​
1​
1​
10​
4
2​
1​
2​
1​
1​
1​
2​
10​
5
3​
1​
1​
2​
2​
1​
10​
6
1​
4​
2​
1​
1​
1​
10​
7
1​
2​
1​
1​
1​
3​
1​
10​
8
1​
8​
1​
10​
Grand Total
10​
9​
10​
8​
6​
7​
5​
4​
17​
2​
2​
80​


Also: only 9/80 with a top 8 seed failed to reach R12. Again, that strikes me as good seeding.
Didn’t we get the same thing? You said 59 of 80 kids seeded in the top 8 made all American and I said 21 kids outside the top 8 made All American. My question is if the 75 percent accuracy means the seeding was good or if 75 percent of top 8 seeds made All American because they had a favorable draw?
 

El-Jefe

Well-Known Member
Jul 27, 2012
26,314
55,733
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Didn’t we get the same thing? You said 59 of 80 kids seeded in the top 8 made all American and I said 21 kids outside the top 8 made All American. My question is if the 75 percent accuracy means the seeding was good or if 75 percent of top 8 seeds made All American because they had a favorable draw?
I should refund my Project Literacy scholarship.

But in any case: there will always be some top 8 guys not make the podium. To me, having 76/80 top 12 seeds make the podium says they seeded very well to within 1 win.

The counter-argument would be that 9 guys (almost 1 per weight) failing to reach the blood round means that a few too many guys got over-seeded.
 

IwasAwful

Well-Known Member
Jan 17, 2020
59
165
1
I should refund my Project Literacy scholarship.

But in any case: there will always be some top 8 guys not make the podium. To me, having 76/80 top 12 seeds make the podium says they seeded very well to within 1 win.

The counter-argument would be that 9 guys (almost 1 per weight) failing to reach the blood round means that a few too many guys got over-seeded.
I would love to use Berge as an example of being seeded well increases your chance of making the podium, but he didn’t make it and the kid with basically the same seed as him did. :(
 

El-Jefe

Well-Known Member
Jul 27, 2012
26,314
55,733
1
I would love to use Berge as an example of being seeded well increases your chance of making the podium, but he didn’t make it and the kid with basically the same seed as him did. :(
We all agree Berge's seed stunk on ice.

But cherry-picking that one example doesn't prove anything about seeding quality at the tournament level.

BTW, I think the entire seeding process is awful, and have pointed out several ways in which it could be improved. That may or may not impact placement metrics. It's quite possible that a 100% random draw would produce good placement metrics, but of course that would be ridiculous in so many ways.
 

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