More to ignore, Book 93.....

Ten Thousan Marbles

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MOSCOW (The Borowitz Report)—Amid reports that the Russian front has collapsed near Kharkiv, Vladimir Putin complained that the only reason he is losing the war in Ukraine is that the F.B.I. recently seized stuff he needed.


“I’m not going to go into detail, but there were things I needed, very important things, that the F.B.I. has confiscated that should have been sent to me,” the Russian President said. “If I had those things right now, I wouldn’t be getting my ass kicked all over Kharkiv.”

The fact that materials intended for him are in the hands of the F.B.I. has made him question “whether America is really a democracy,” he said.


“I think if you pay for something—and I mean pay in cash—it should be sent to you,” he said. “Hopefully the special master will straighten all this out.”
 

Ten Thousan Marbles

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Ukraine Update: Massive Ukrainian victory, Russia leaving all of Kharkiv oblast

kos

FcW7Dl3WYAEu7f2.jpeg

Ukraine captures one of dozens of armored vehicles as Russia scrambles out of Kharkiv Oblast in chaotic retreat.

A quick update to get the news up, I’ll flesh this out throughout the day.



HIMARS caught a retreating Russian unit:



From the Russian’s POV:



More to come.
 

Ten Thousan Marbles

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Sunday, Sep 11, 2022 · 11:04:23 AM EDT · kos
Let’s look at the big picture.

map.jpeg


Blue hash is Kharkiv oblast, which Russia is supposedly abandoning entirely. Yellow is the parts of Luhansk Oblast Russia conquered since February. Open, empty, with few roads, Russia wasn’t able to hold it in the 2014 war. Not sure how strategic it is right now, and whether Ukraine will want to claw some of that back.

The pre-invasion Luhansk and Donbas border are clearly defensible, and that’s where Russia presumably will head. The green hash is the part of Kherson Oblast that Ukraine has cut off, with a heavy Russian presence suffering from poor-to-non-existent supply lines.

But what about the south? Reports a heavy Russian presence in the stretch between Mariupol and Melitopol, and Ukraine can’t cut those troops off. They can be resupplied easily via the Azov sea. Russia’s problem is that supply lines from there to Melitopol (and further west toward Kherson) are served by a single rail line, in the town of Tokmak.

Expect that place to start showing up soon, the way we always knew Kupiansk and Vovchansk would be keys to liberating Kherson.
 

Ten Thousan Marbles

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Sunday, Sep 11, 2022 · 11:25:24 AM EDT · kos



We’ve been talking about Russia’s insufficient forces since literally before the war began.


The defense was broken so quickly most likely because the Russians lacked forces. The front is more than 1300 km long, and the Russians have 200,000-250,000 troops. This is decisively insufficient to create a serious tiered defense. Most likely, they only had one tier of defense to the north of Balakliia and the Russians’ defense forces mainly consisted of SOBR rapid-response teams that are not specialized in general warfare but in suppressing protest actions.
 

Ten Thousan Marbles

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Ukraine Update: Pro-Russian sources react to their stunning defeat ... and it's hilarious

kos for

Today has been a delightful stream of liberated towns as Russia scrambles out of Kharkiv Oblast—with or without its equipment. There are unconfirmed reports of major retreats in Kherson, but I’m going to hold off on posting those until we get better information.

Some of these Kharkiv retreats are bizarre. Take this wonderful video:



What’s amazing about this video is that it has been geolocated to Kozacha Lopan, north of Kharkiv, literally on the Russian border.

koz.png


Kozacha Lopan is particularly significant because 1) there was no reason for Russia to actually abandon it. There are no supply issues, it’s on the freaking border, off a major 4-lane highway 30 kilometers from Belgorod. Russia reinforced it with pre-made concrete bunkers. It would’ve cost Ukraine dearly to try and take it. So why abandon it? Yet we’re seeing that on all those border towns. When Russia decided to abandon the oblast, they really mean pulling everything out.

As we celebrate Ukraine’s stunning victory, pro-Russian sources are finding hilarious ways to cope. Let’s take a look at some of them. .........

 

Ten Thousan Marbles

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Sunday, Sep 11, 2022 · 2:40:50 PM EDT · kos



Honestly, hitting critical infrastructure makes more military sense than hitting random apartment buildings. Russia are terrorists, and this is terrorism, but at least there’s some strategic thinking behind it.

Unfortunately for Russia, this is nothing more than a temper tantrum. Won’t affect the actual situation on the ground.
 

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