The issue with wrestlestat is that it is presumably using a using a simulation model and taking the expected value of the outcomes. That has two ramifications. First, it will never (or hardly ever) pick upsets. The expected winner of a set of simulations is the favorite in the match. That's how models like that are parameterized, at least the good ones. Therefore, real people can beat it by knowing where upsets will be. Second, it will be biased towards narrower decisions by considering all possible outcomes in the expected value, so it's going to miss almost all of the bonus point matches.
Know Your Penn State Wrestlers (KYPSW) 2019-20
- Thread starter pawrestlersintn
- Start date
Yeah...I have a bit of an idea how it works but still strange to me figuring Moran over Lee by decision. Like I said though, Wrestlestat is a great site. I don't really care about their prediction module....its not why I go there anyway.
I agree on all fronts. Wrestlestat is a fantastic site with a wealth of data and a great resource that I use all the time, and the Moran over Lee prediction is a hard one to understand. 99.5% of their predictions are very straightforward though.
I use wrestlestat often, but don't know if recent results carry more weight than older data. I don't think it is a good predictor when a wrestler jumps several levels quickly as Lee has appeared to have done.
Wrestlestat uses ELO, a scoring system used for ranking chess players, as its base scoring system. Andegre has tweaked the algorithm to help it fit wrestling better, but there is only so much that can be done with limited wrestling matches per wrestler, versus probably thousands of chess matches per player.
Additionally, if Kasparov beats Karpov in five moves, he gets the W, not a D, MD, TF or Fall, just a W. I don't know how much time Andegre spends on Wrestlestat, but I'm certain it ain't enough to figure out how to make the algorithm figure out decision types.
I think Wrestlestat is fantastic, and I think @johnstownsteel had a great idea in putting it to the test, but absent tons more data and time, most peoples' KYPSW picks are going to beat WS, because we have more useable "data" than WS for head to head match-ups.
Additionally, if Kasparov beats Karpov in five moves, he gets the W, not a D, MD, TF or Fall, just a W. I don't know how much time Andegre spends on Wrestlestat, but I'm certain it ain't enough to figure out how to make the algorithm figure out decision types.
I think Wrestlestat is fantastic, and I think @johnstownsteel had a great idea in putting it to the test, but absent tons more data and time, most peoples' KYPSW picks are going to beat WS, because we have more useable "data" than WS for head to head match-ups.
I do as well. Very few days where I don't visit the site. I doubt anybody really cares about its predictions anyhow. . Its nice to see how wrestlers/teams compare to common opponents and against each other. Lee and Moran were 1-1 against each other. First meeting was a SV2 win for Moran. Second was a MD for Lee. Lee has alot better record against common opponents yet it predicted Moran 9-8. I just checked, after the lastest match it now has Nick 9-8.
I hope people don't think I'm raggin on Wrestlestat because I'm not. I LOVE the site. To be honest, I was hoping Wrestlstats picks would beat everyone....well...everyone but me. It was mostly wishful thinking because it always bothers me when I see people picking the site apart and criticizing the WS guys because their wrestler isnt ranked higher or their wrestler is predicted to lose to someone. I bite my tongue every time I see it...
I didn't take it as you ragging on WS, FWIW.
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I don't think anyone here would rag on wrestlestat. Their predictions are what they are, but even without the predictions at all, the site is by far the best source of wrestling data on the internet, and it's free. Can't ask for more than that.
2 PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS (10-2, 7-1 B1G)
125 Brandon Meredith Fr. Limerick, Pa./Spring-Ford 12-11
133 #2 Roman Bravo-Young So. Tucson, Ariz./Sunny Side 15-1
141 #2 Nick Lee Jr. Evansville, Ind./Homeschool 16-0
149 #17 Jarod Verkleeren So. Greensburg, Pa./Hempfield 14-5
Luke Gardner Jr. Pottsville, Pa./Pottsville 6-2
157 Bo Pipher Jr. Paonia, Colo./Paonia 9-11
Brady Berge So. Mantorville, Minn./Kasson-Mantorville 1-0
165 #1 Vincenzo Joseph Sr. Pittsburgh, Pa./Central Catholic 11-0
174 #2 Mark Hall Sr. Apple Valley, Minn./Apple Valley 18-1
184 #6 Aaron Brooks Fr. Hagerstown, Md./North Hagerstown 10-1
197 #17 Shakur Rasheed Sr. Coram, N.Y./Longwood 4-3
285 #15 Seth Nevills Fr. Clovis, Calif./Clovis 12-2
#3 OHIO STATE (10-3, 6-2 B1G)
125 Malik Heinselman So. Castle Rock, Colo./Castle View 14-13
Dylan Koontz So. Plover, Wis./Stevens Point 12-9
133 Jordan Decatur Fr. Akron, Ohio/Cuyahoga Valley Christian 11-7
141 #1 Luke Pletcher Sr. Latrobe, Pa./Greater Latrobe 23-0
149 #1 Sammy Sasso Fr. Nazareth, Pa./Nazareth 21-2
157 Quinn Kinner Fr. Mullica Hill, N.J./Kingsway Regional 14-5
Elijah Cleary Jr. Winter Park, Fla./Lake Highland Prep 13-10
165 #16 Ethan Smith So. Latrobe, Pa./Sparrows Point (Md.) 15-10
174 #7 Kaleb Romero So. Mechanicsburg, Ohio/Mechanicsburg 15-4
184 #12 Rocky Jordan Fr. St. Paris, Ohio/St. Paris Graham 25-6
197 #1 Kollin Moore Sr. Burbank, Ohio/Norwayne 23-0
285 Gary Traub Jr. Cincinnati, Ohio/Sycamore 19-6
125 Brandon Meredith Fr. Limerick, Pa./Spring-Ford 12-11
133 #2 Roman Bravo-Young So. Tucson, Ariz./Sunny Side 15-1
141 #2 Nick Lee Jr. Evansville, Ind./Homeschool 16-0
149 #17 Jarod Verkleeren So. Greensburg, Pa./Hempfield 14-5
Luke Gardner Jr. Pottsville, Pa./Pottsville 6-2
157 Bo Pipher Jr. Paonia, Colo./Paonia 9-11
Brady Berge So. Mantorville, Minn./Kasson-Mantorville 1-0
165 #1 Vincenzo Joseph Sr. Pittsburgh, Pa./Central Catholic 11-0
174 #2 Mark Hall Sr. Apple Valley, Minn./Apple Valley 18-1
184 #6 Aaron Brooks Fr. Hagerstown, Md./North Hagerstown 10-1
197 #17 Shakur Rasheed Sr. Coram, N.Y./Longwood 4-3
285 #15 Seth Nevills Fr. Clovis, Calif./Clovis 12-2
#3 OHIO STATE (10-3, 6-2 B1G)
125 Malik Heinselman So. Castle Rock, Colo./Castle View 14-13
Dylan Koontz So. Plover, Wis./Stevens Point 12-9
133 Jordan Decatur Fr. Akron, Ohio/Cuyahoga Valley Christian 11-7
141 #1 Luke Pletcher Sr. Latrobe, Pa./Greater Latrobe 23-0
149 #1 Sammy Sasso Fr. Nazareth, Pa./Nazareth 21-2
157 Quinn Kinner Fr. Mullica Hill, N.J./Kingsway Regional 14-5
Elijah Cleary Jr. Winter Park, Fla./Lake Highland Prep 13-10
165 #16 Ethan Smith So. Latrobe, Pa./Sparrows Point (Md.) 15-10
174 #7 Kaleb Romero So. Mechanicsburg, Ohio/Mechanicsburg 15-4
184 #12 Rocky Jordan Fr. St. Paris, Ohio/St. Paris Graham 25-6
197 #1 Kollin Moore Sr. Burbank, Ohio/Norwayne 23-0
285 Gary Traub Jr. Cincinnati, Ohio/Sycamore 19-6
tOSU
125- tOSU Dec
133- Bravo-Young TF
141- Lee Dec
149- Sasso MD
157- tOSU Dec Pipher /Gardner or Berge Dec tOSU
165- Joseph MD
174- Hall Dec
184- Brooks Dec
197- Moore Dec
285- Nevills Dec
125- tOSU Dec
133- Bravo-Young TF
141- Lee Dec
149- Sasso MD
157- tOSU Dec Pipher /Gardner or Berge Dec tOSU
165- Joseph MD
174- Hall Dec
184- Brooks Dec
197- Moore Dec
285- Nevills Dec
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Ohio St
125 Any OSU (OSU) Dec
133 RBY (PSU) MD
141 Lee (PSU) Pin
149 Sasso (OSU) MD
157 Any OSU (OSU) Dec
165 Joseph (PSU) Pin
174 Hall (PSU) MD
184 Brooks (PSU) Dec
197 Moore (OSU) MD
HWT Nevills (PSU) Dec
125 Any OSU (OSU) Dec
133 RBY (PSU) MD
141 Lee (PSU) Pin
149 Sasso (OSU) MD
157 Any OSU (OSU) Dec
165 Joseph (PSU) Pin
174 Hall (PSU) MD
184 Brooks (PSU) Dec
197 Moore (OSU) MD
HWT Nevills (PSU) Dec
Ohio State
125 Any OSU DEC
133 Bravo-Young TF
141 Lee. DEC
149 Sasso MD
157 Any PSU DEC
165 Joseph PIN
174 Hall MD
184 Brooks. DEC
197 Moore DEC
285 Nevills DEC or Caesar PIN
125 Any OSU DEC
133 Bravo-Young TF
141 Lee. DEC
149 Sasso MD
157 Any PSU DEC
165 Joseph PIN
174 Hall MD
184 Brooks. DEC
197 Moore DEC
285 Nevills DEC or Caesar PIN
Ohio State
125- OSU Dec
133- RBY MD
141- Lee Dec
149- Sasso MD
157- OSU Dec
165- Cenzo MD
174- Hall DEC
184- AB Dec
197- Moore Dec
285- Seth Dec
125- OSU Dec
133- RBY MD
141- Lee Dec
149- Sasso MD
157- OSU Dec
165- Cenzo MD
174- Hall DEC
184- AB Dec
197- Moore Dec
285- Seth Dec
Ohio State
125 Heinselman Dec Meredith, Meredith Dec Koontz
133 Bravo-Young TF
141 Lee Dec
149 Sasso Dec Verkleeren, MD Gardner
157 Berge Dec Any OSU, Any OSU Dec Pipher
165 Joseph MD
174 Hall Dec
184 Brooks Dec
197 Moore Dec
285 Nevills MD
125 Heinselman Dec Meredith, Meredith Dec Koontz
133 Bravo-Young TF
141 Lee Dec
149 Sasso Dec Verkleeren, MD Gardner
157 Berge Dec Any OSU, Any OSU Dec Pipher
165 Joseph MD
174 Hall Dec
184 Brooks Dec
197 Moore Dec
285 Nevills MD
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PSU vs tOSU 2/15
125 Heinselman or Koontz DEC over Meredith
133 Bravo-Young MD over Decatur
141 Lee DEC over Pletcher
149 Sasso DEC over any PSU
157 Any PSU DEC over Cleary; or Berge or Gardner DEC over Kinner; or Kinner DEC over Pipher
165 Joseph FALL over Smith
174 Hall MD over Romero
184 Brooks DEC over Jordan
197 Moore MD over Rasheed
285 Nevills DEC over Traub
125 Heinselman or Koontz DEC over Meredith
133 Bravo-Young MD over Decatur
141 Lee DEC over Pletcher
149 Sasso DEC over any PSU
157 Any PSU DEC over Cleary; or Berge or Gardner DEC over Kinner; or Kinner DEC over Pipher
165 Joseph FALL over Smith
174 Hall MD over Romero
184 Brooks DEC over Jordan
197 Moore MD over Rasheed
285 Nevills DEC over Traub
AnOSU
125- OSU DEC
133- Bravo-Young TF
141- Lee DEC
149- Sasso DEC
157- Berge Dec or OSU DEC other
165- Joseph MD
174- Hall MD
184- Brooks DEC
197- Moore DEC
285- Nevills DEC
125- OSU DEC
133- Bravo-Young TF
141- Lee DEC
149- Sasso DEC
157- Berge Dec or OSU DEC other
165- Joseph MD
174- Hall MD
184- Brooks DEC
197- Moore DEC
285- Nevills DEC
Ohio State
125 OSU dec
133 RBY TF
141 Lee Dec
149 Sasso dec
157 OSU dec
165 VJ MD
174 Hall MD
184 Brooks dec
197 Moore MD
285 Nevilles dec
125 OSU dec
133 RBY TF
141 Lee Dec
149 Sasso dec
157 OSU dec
165 VJ MD
174 Hall MD
184 Brooks dec
197 Moore MD
285 Nevilles dec
OHIO STATE:
125:Meredith dec Heinselman or Koontz dec Meredith
133: Bravo-Young tf
141: Lee maj
149: Sasso dec
157: Berge dec or OSU dec Pipher
165: Joseph fall
174: Hall dec
184: Brooks dec
197: Moore dec
285: Nevills dec
125:Meredith dec Heinselman or Koontz dec Meredith
133: Bravo-Young tf
141: Lee maj
149: Sasso dec
157: Berge dec or OSU dec Pipher
165: Joseph fall
174: Hall dec
184: Brooks dec
197: Moore dec
285: Nevills dec
tOSU
125- tOSU Dec
133- Bravo-Young MD
141- Lee Dec
149- Sasso Dec
157- Berge Dec or tOSU Dec other
165- Joseph MD
174- Hall Dec
184- Brooks Dec
197- Moore Dec
285- Nevills Dec
125- tOSU Dec
133- Bravo-Young MD
141- Lee Dec
149- Sasso Dec
157- Berge Dec or tOSU Dec other
165- Joseph MD
174- Hall Dec
184- Brooks Dec
197- Moore Dec
285- Nevills Dec
Ohio State (Wrestlestat)
125 Heinselman DEC Meredith or
Koontz DEC Meredith
133 Bravo-Young DEC Decatur
141 Lee DEC Pletcher
149 Sasso MD Verkleeren or Sasso MD Gardner
157 Berge DEC Kinner or Berge DEC Cleary or Kinner DEC Pipher or Cleary DEC Pipher
165 Joseph MD Smith
174 Hall MD Romero
184 Brooks DEC Jordan
197 Rasheed DEC Moore
285 Nevills DEC Traub
125 Heinselman DEC Meredith or
Koontz DEC Meredith
133 Bravo-Young DEC Decatur
141 Lee DEC Pletcher
149 Sasso MD Verkleeren or Sasso MD Gardner
157 Berge DEC Kinner or Berge DEC Cleary or Kinner DEC Pipher or Cleary DEC Pipher
165 Joseph MD Smith
174 Hall MD Romero
184 Brooks DEC Jordan
197 Rasheed DEC Moore
285 Nevills DEC Traub
Ohio State (johnstownsteel)
125 Heinselman DEC Meredith or
Koontz DEC Meredith
133 Bravo-Young MD Decatur
141 Lee DEC Pletcher
149 Sasso DEC Verkleeren or Sasso MD Gardner
157 Berge DEC Kinner or Berge DEC Cleary or Kinner DEC Pipher or Cleary DEC Pipher
165 Joseph MD Smith
174 Hall DEC Romero
184 Brooks DEC Jordan
197 Moore MD Rasheed
285 Nevills DEC Traub
125 Heinselman DEC Meredith or
Koontz DEC Meredith
133 Bravo-Young MD Decatur
141 Lee DEC Pletcher
149 Sasso DEC Verkleeren or Sasso MD Gardner
157 Berge DEC Kinner or Berge DEC Cleary or Kinner DEC Pipher or Cleary DEC Pipher
165 Joseph MD Smith
174 Hall DEC Romero
184 Brooks DEC Jordan
197 Moore MD Rasheed
285 Nevills DEC Traub
Ohio State
125 - Heinselman or Koontz Dec Meredith
133 - Bravo-Young MD
141 - Lee Dec
149 - Sasso Fall Verk, Sasso Dec Gardner
157 - Berge Dec, Kinner or Clear Dec Gardner or Pipher
165 - Joseph Fall
174 - Hall MD
184 - Brooks Dec
197 - Moore MD
285 - Nevills Dec
125 - Heinselman or Koontz Dec Meredith
133 - Bravo-Young MD
141 - Lee Dec
149 - Sasso Fall Verk, Sasso Dec Gardner
157 - Berge Dec, Kinner or Clear Dec Gardner or Pipher
165 - Joseph Fall
174 - Hall MD
184 - Brooks Dec
197 - Moore MD
285 - Nevills Dec
OHIO STATE
125 - tOSU Dec
133 - Bravo-Young MD
141 - Lee Dec
149 - Sasso Dec
157 - Berge Dec or tOSU Dec other
165 - Joseph MD
174 - Hall Dec
184 - Brooks Dec
197 - Moore Dec
285 - Nevills Dec
125 - tOSU Dec
133 - Bravo-Young MD
141 - Lee Dec
149 - Sasso Dec
157 - Berge Dec or tOSU Dec other
165 - Joseph MD
174 - Hall Dec
184 - Brooks Dec
197 - Moore Dec
285 - Nevills Dec
Ohio St:
125: OSU Dec
133: Bravo-Young TF
141: Lee Dec
149: Sasso Dec
157: Berge Dec OR Any OSU Dec any other PSU
165: Joseph MD
174: Hall MD
184: Brooks Dec
197: Moore Dec
285: Nevills Dec
125: OSU Dec
133: Bravo-Young TF
141: Lee Dec
149: Sasso Dec
157: Berge Dec OR Any OSU Dec any other PSU
165: Joseph MD
174: Hall MD
184: Brooks Dec
197: Moore Dec
285: Nevills Dec
tOSU
125- Heinselman DEC Meredith, Meredith DEC Koontz
133- Bravo-Young TF
141- Lee DEC
149- Sasso DEC
157- Berge DEC or Kinner DEC other PSU, other PSU DEC Cleary
165- Joseph FALL
174- Hall DEC
184- Brooks DEC
197- Moore MD
285- Nevills DEC
125- Heinselman DEC Meredith, Meredith DEC Koontz
133- Bravo-Young TF
141- Lee DEC
149- Sasso DEC
157- Berge DEC or Kinner DEC other PSU, other PSU DEC Cleary
165- Joseph FALL
174- Hall DEC
184- Brooks DEC
197- Moore MD
285- Nevills DEC
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