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Keys to the 2015 Season (long)

mickey_PSU

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With pre-season practice beginning this Thursday, I thought it was a good time to throw out my “Keys to the 2015 Season”. All of this has been discussed to some degree at one time or another since the end of last season but it’s always a good topic and usually generates great discussion. Here are my keys:


1. Special teams. Our punting was atrocious last year. If that doesn’t improve, our defense is going to be put in tough situations again this season. Part of the way to improve that is through complimentary football- i.e. the offense has to do a better job getting us out of our end of the field. The offense has to be able to get a couple of first downs, at a minimum, in those situations so that even if the punting only gets about 35 yards, our opponent isn’t starting near midfield all the time. Further, our kicking game is a huge unknown, Julius has to step up, and it’s that simple. I believe replacing Ficken is the biggest problem we have going into the upcoming season.

The return game needs to improve as well. Haley showed glimpses last year; I’m hoping that translates into something better this season. I suspect Thomkins will provide some spark as well. I’d also note, a lot of the RS freshman (Farmer, Reeder, Worlie, Orwaria (sp?) and some of the true freshman who don’t redshirt will add speed and skill to our kick coverage and return game. Also, Hazlet, our new “consultant” has a background in developing outstanding special teams. My guess is that he’ll be asked to contribute to the improvement of our special teams.

2. Offensive Line. This is less of a concern to me than our special teams play. A year of experience and some young talent pushing the starters to be better will, imo, lead to better play in 15’. Last season, we went into the year with just 5 linemen available to play: Smith, Mahon, Mangiro, Gaia and Nelson. If you recall, Laurent was banged up as was Dowery, although DD played in certain sets but, generally, they had to protect him. Dieffenbach was injured through much of the season but did come back to contribute. This year, the only starter no longer with the team is Donovan Smith. Additionally, Laurent got significant playing time during the second half of the season and Dowrey played well at LG against Boston College after Dieffenbach’s early exit. Add to those 6 returning players the 5th year transfer, Reihner and the JUCO transfer, Palmer and we’re already heading into the season in better shape. Then add Sorrell, Brosnon, Beh and Wright and we’re looking a hell of a lot better than last year. Finally, last season was the first under a new coach and system. Now into their second year, the players are more familiar with what they need to do, they got invaluable experience last year and I expect them to play with a chip on their shoulders given all the abuse they took on and off the field last year.

3. Consistent Receiver Play. Our receivers must play with more consistency. They need to run correct routes; they must make the easy catches; and they must learn how to get separation. Not to beat a dead horse but last year was a learning year for so many reasons, including at WR. Our primary starters last year were a RS sophomore (Lewis), RS freshman (Hamilton) and 2 true freshmen (Godwin and Blacknall). Between the offensive line’s poor play and the young receivers, it’s a miracle Hackenberg made it through the season intact. I expect the receivers to do a much better job this season; I expect they’ll be on the same page as the QB more often than not- which will be a big improvement over last year. I also think Johnson and Charles will push the starters hard. Competition at the WR spots will be tremendous, which should lead to better results.

4. Tight Ends Blocking. Again, a year of experience in the system and coaching should improve this aspect of the game, one that for most of last season, we lacked. The tight ends inability to block effectively added to the offensive line woes. Arguably our best blocking tight end, Adam Breneman, missed all of last year. Hopefully guys like Carter, Wilkerson and Gesicki will improve their blocking abilities- I believe they will. For Wilkerson, if he doesn’t contribute a whole lot, I fully expect this to be his final season. Given Bowers and Holland’s size, if they can master the art of blocking, you may see them in on short yardage situations. I expect at least one of them to play as a true freshman.

5. Defensive Ends. Both Sickles and Nassib must step up. Depth is also a concern. Fortunately, DE is one of those positions I’ve seen freshman come in and contribute right away. Guys like Buchholz, Miller and Givens may have a chance to play if the 5 guys we have can’t get the job done. Lots of unknowns here- it’s a concern but my gut tells me Nassib, Sickles, Brown, Cothran and Schwann will come through. I’m probably less concerned because I have tremendous faith in the defensive coaching staff- next man up, as Bill O’Brien used to say.

6. Replacing Hull. The biggest loss on the defensive side of the ball was Mike Hull. Fortunately, I think Wartman-White is up to the task. I’m not sure Klein will do much this season so Cabinda and Bell need to stay healthy (as does Wartman-White). We have depth but it lacks experience. Wooten and Walker are the only other “experienced” linebackers coming into the 15’ season. It’ll be interesting to see what guys like Reeder and Farmer do. I’m not seeing any of the true freshmen playing this year but injuries and needs will dictate whether they play or not.

Overall, we have a lot more talent and a decent amount of experience so, barring major injuries, I think an 8 win season is what should be expected; a 9 win season shouldn’t surprise anyone and a 10 win season is certainly something this team is capable of. I still think the kicking game will hold us back, that’s why I think 8 wins is what we’ll see.
 
I should have also mentioned the running game. This goes back to both the offensive line play and the tight ends ability to block- we need to get more production out of the running game in order to prolong drives and run clock. It's all about complimentary football, even within one side of the ball.
This is one area where I think it'll be addition by subtraction. I mean no disrespect to Bill Belton or Zach Zwinek but one was a converted slot receiver and the other a fullback. While we don't know for certain what we're getting in Thomas, Allen, Scott, Barkley or Robinson, we know enough to know they're all true runningbacks. Speed from that position should be improved and production should be better, imo.
 
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Nice analysis.

I tend to think the OL and running game will be better this year, primarily based on the same reasons you discussed.

Thanks for the effort to put this together.
 
Thanks- always fun thinking about the team, where it is, where it's going and how we're getting there.
 
With pre-season practice beginning this Thursday, I thought it was a good time to throw out my “Keys to the 2015 Season”. All of this has been discussed to some degree at one time or another since the end of last season but it’s always a good topic and usually generates great discussion. Here are my keys:


1. Special teams. Our punting was atrocious last year. If that doesn’t improve, our defense is going to be put in tough situations again this season. Part of the way to improve that is through complimentary football- i.e. the offense has to do a better job getting us out of our end of the field. The offense has to be able to get a couple of first downs, at a minimum, in those situations so that even if the punting only gets about 35 yards, our opponent isn’t starting near midfield all the time. Further, our kicking game is a huge unknown, Julius has to step up, and it’s that simple. I believe replacing Ficken is the biggest problem we have going into the upcoming season.

The return game needs to improve as well. Haley showed glimpses last year; I’m hoping that translates into something better this season. I suspect Thomkins will provide some spark as well. I’d also note, a lot of the RS freshman (Farmer, Reeder, Worlie, Orwaria (sp?) and some of the true freshman who don’t redshirt will add speed and skill to our kick coverage and return game. Also, Hazlet, our new “consultant” has a background in developing outstanding special teams. My guess is that he’ll be asked to contribute to the improvement of our special teams.

2. Offensive Line. This is less of a concern to me than our special teams play. A year of experience and some young talent pushing the starters to be better will, imo, lead to better play in 15’. Last season, we went into the year with just 5 linemen available to play: Smith, Mahon, Mangiro, Gaia and Nelson. If you recall, Laurent was banged up as was Dowery, although DD played in certain sets but, generally, they had to protect him. Dieffenbach was injured through much of the season but did come back to contribute. This year, the only starter no longer with the team is Donovan Smith. Additionally, Laurent got significant playing time during the second half of the season and Dowrey played well at LG against Boston College after Dieffenbach’s early exit. Add to those 6 returning players the 5th year transfer, Reihner and the JUCO transfer, Palmer and we’re already heading into the season in better shape. Then add Sorrell, Brosnon, Beh and Wright and we’re looking a hell of a lot better than last year. Finally, last season was the first under a new coach and system. Now into their second year, the players are more familiar with what they need to do, they got invaluable experience last year and I expect them to play with a chip on their shoulders given all the abuse they took on and off the field last year.

3. Consistent Receiver Play. Our receivers must play with more consistency. They need to run correct routes; they must make the easy catches; and they must learn how to get separation. Not to beat a dead horse but last year was a learning year for so many reasons, including at WR. Our primary starters last year were a RS sophomore (Lewis), RS freshman (Hamilton) and 2 true freshmen (Godwin and Blacknall). Between the offensive line’s poor play and the young receivers, it’s a miracle Hackenberg made it through the season intact. I expect the receivers to do a much better job this season; I expect they’ll be on the same page as the QB more often than not- which will be a big improvement over last year. I also think Johnson and Charles will push the starters hard. Competition at the WR spots will be tremendous, which should lead to better results.

4. Tight Ends Blocking. Again, a year of experience in the system and coaching should improve this aspect of the game, one that for most of last season, we lacked. The tight ends inability to block effectively added to the offensive line woes. Arguably our best blocking tight end, Adam Breneman, missed all of last year. Hopefully guys like Carter, Wilkerson and Gesicki will improve their blocking abilities- I believe they will. For Wilkerson, if he doesn’t contribute a whole lot, I fully expect this to be his final season. Given Bowers and Holland’s size, if they can master the art of blocking, you may see them in on short yardage situations. I expect at least one of them to play as a true freshman.

5. Defensive Ends. Both Sickles and Nassib must step up. Depth is also a concern. Fortunately, DE is one of those positions I’ve seen freshman come in and contribute right away. Guys like Buchholz, Miller and Givens may have a chance to play if the 5 guys we have can’t get the job done. Lots of unknowns here- it’s a concern but my gut tells me Nassib, Sickles, Brown, Cothran and Schwann will come through. I’m probably less concerned because I have tremendous faith in the defensive coaching staff- next man up, as Bill O’Brien used to say.

6. Replacing Hull. The biggest loss on the defensive side of the ball was Mike Hull. Fortunately, I think Wartman-White is up to the task. I’m not sure Klein will do much this season so Cabinda and Bell need to stay healthy (as does Wartman-White). We have depth but it lacks experience. Wooten and Walker are the only other “experienced” linebackers coming into the 15’ season. It’ll be interesting to see what guys like Reeder and Farmer do. I’m not seeing any of the true freshmen playing this year but injuries and needs will dictate whether they play or not.

Overall, we have a lot more talent and a decent amount of experience so, barring major injuries, I think an 8 win season is what should be expected; a 9 win season shouldn’t surprise anyone and a 10 win season is certainly something this team is capable of. I still think the kicking game will hold us back, that’s why I think 8 wins is what we’ll see.

Getting even a remotely fair-shake from the bushleague, b1g turd conference and a "level playing field" is another key wildcard "factor" in PSU's case. PSU could play well enough to win and deserve to win all of their games and historic probabilities suggest that they will be screwed out of wins by this disgraceful "you're lucky we let you play at all" corrupt, bush, POS conference. BTW, the chances and probability that we get unbiased and fair officiating in 100% of our games in this crap league in this very important "factor" in PSU's case is miniscule.
 
Good job. I see 9 wins. I can live with 8, but less would be a disappointment. If we win 10 or more Franklin should be Conference coach of the year.
 
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Good analysis! Can't wait to see TB, WR and DB play.
 
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You're correct on the kicking game. Ficken won the game for us against BC and UCF last year. And everyone remembers how we started out with that loss against UVA before he became one of the best in college football. Nothing can replace the experience of kicking under pressure when the game is on the line.
 
I should have also mentioned the running game. This goes back to both the offensive line play and the tight ends ability to block- we need to get more production out of the running game in order to prolong drives and run clock. It's all about complimentary football, even within one side of the ball.
This is one area where I think it'll be addition by subtraction. I mean no disrespect to Bill Belton or Zach Zwinek but one was a converted slot receiver and the other a fullback. While we don't know for certain what we're getting in Thomas, Allen, Scott, Barkley or Robinson, we know enough to know they're all true runningbacks. Speed from that position should be improved and production should be better, imo.

Yes, this is potentially a really big factor in PSU's favor or it will be a problem again this year. No question tailback was a really big weakness last year. With Belton not 100% much of the year, and Lynch not ready, they just didn't have enough athletic ability at that position to scare people. Defenses could focus on Hack and receivers because that is all PSU had.

This year, the redshirt frosh Scott and Allen can both scoot -- especially Scott. If either of those guys can hit a hole fast, they will break some plays and that will do more than anything else to reduce pressure on Hack and pass-blocking. And there are good reports about Thomas.

I'm hopeful about Lynch but I'm a little skeptical at this point. He didn't look super committed to blocking last year. He's not powerful enough to be a power back, and he's not fast enough to be a speed back. He strikes me as a backup quality B1G running back (and I hope he makes me eat those words). They just don't need another year of backs going sideways and juking at the hole instead of hitting the hole. And they certainly don't need a tailback who whiffs on a blitzing linebacker.

So anyway a really big question for the team will be what the young backs can do. Can they pick up blitzes and can they catch passes out of the backfield? If anybody can do that -- especially the picking up of blitzes -- they are going to play. I don't think playing true freshman running backs is a good idea, but this might be a case where Barkley or Robinson really has a chance.

If I'm the offensive coordinator, I'm telling the running backs -- the first guy who really blocks well and protects our quarterback is going to get the reps.
 
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With pre-season practice beginning this Thursday, I thought it was a good time to throw out my “Keys to the 2015 Season”. All of this has been discussed to some degree at one time or another since the end of last season but it’s always a good topic and usually generates great discussion. Here are my keys:


1. Special teams. Our punting was atrocious last year. If that doesn’t improve, our defense is going to be put in tough situations again this season. Part of the way to improve that is through complimentary football- i.e. the offense has to do a better job getting us out of our end of the field. The offense has to be able to get a couple of first downs, at a minimum, in those situations so that even if the punting only gets about 35 yards, our opponent isn’t starting near midfield all the time. Further, our kicking game is a huge unknown, Julius has to step up, and it’s that simple. I believe replacing Ficken is the biggest problem we have going into the upcoming season.

The return game needs to improve as well. Haley showed glimpses last year; I’m hoping that translates into something better this season. I suspect Thomkins will provide some spark as well. I’d also note, a lot of the RS freshman (Farmer, Reeder, Worlie, Orwaria (sp?) and some of the true freshman who don’t redshirt will add speed and skill to our kick coverage and return game. Also, Hazlet, our new “consultant” has a background in developing outstanding special teams. My guess is that he’ll be asked to contribute to the improvement of our special teams.

2. Offensive Line. This is less of a concern to me than our special teams play. A year of experience and some young talent pushing the starters to be better will, imo, lead to better play in 15’. Last season, we went into the year with just 5 linemen available to play: Smith, Mahon, Mangiro, Gaia and Nelson. If you recall, Laurent was banged up as was Dowery, although DD played in certain sets but, generally, they had to protect him. Dieffenbach was injured through much of the season but did come back to contribute. This year, the only starter no longer with the team is Donovan Smith. Additionally, Laurent got significant playing time during the second half of the season and Dowrey played well at LG against Boston College after Dieffenbach’s early exit. Add to those 6 returning players the 5th year transfer, Reihner and the JUCO transfer, Palmer and we’re already heading into the season in better shape. Then add Sorrell, Brosnon, Beh and Wright and we’re looking a hell of a lot better than last year. Finally, last season was the first under a new coach and system. Now into their second year, the players are more familiar with what they need to do, they got invaluable experience last year and I expect them to play with a chip on their shoulders given all the abuse they took on and off the field last year.

3. Consistent Receiver Play. Our receivers must play with more consistency. They need to run correct routes; they must make the easy catches; and they must learn how to get separation. Not to beat a dead horse but last year was a learning year for so many reasons, including at WR. Our primary starters last year were a RS sophomore (Lewis), RS freshman (Hamilton) and 2 true freshmen (Godwin and Blacknall). Between the offensive line’s poor play and the young receivers, it’s a miracle Hackenberg made it through the season intact. I expect the receivers to do a much better job this season; I expect they’ll be on the same page as the QB more often than not- which will be a big improvement over last year. I also think Johnson and Charles will push the starters hard. Competition at the WR spots will be tremendous, which should lead to better results.

4. Tight Ends Blocking. Again, a year of experience in the system and coaching should improve this aspect of the game, one that for most of last season, we lacked. The tight ends inability to block effectively added to the offensive line woes. Arguably our best blocking tight end, Adam Breneman, missed all of last year. Hopefully guys like Carter, Wilkerson and Gesicki will improve their blocking abilities- I believe they will. For Wilkerson, if he doesn’t contribute a whole lot, I fully expect this to be his final season. Given Bowers and Holland’s size, if they can master the art of blocking, you may see them in on short yardage situations. I expect at least one of them to play as a true freshman.

5. Defensive Ends. Both Sickles and Nassib must step up. Depth is also a concern. Fortunately, DE is one of those positions I’ve seen freshman come in and contribute right away. Guys like Buchholz, Miller and Givens may have a chance to play if the 5 guys we have can’t get the job done. Lots of unknowns here- it’s a concern but my gut tells me Nassib, Sickles, Brown, Cothran and Schwann will come through. I’m probably less concerned because I have tremendous faith in the defensive coaching staff- next man up, as Bill O’Brien used to say.

6. Replacing Hull. The biggest loss on the defensive side of the ball was Mike Hull. Fortunately, I think Wartman-White is up to the task. I’m not sure Klein will do much this season so Cabinda and Bell need to stay healthy (as does Wartman-White). We have depth but it lacks experience. Wooten and Walker are the only other “experienced” linebackers coming into the 15’ season. It’ll be interesting to see what guys like Reeder and Farmer do. I’m not seeing any of the true freshmen playing this year but injuries and needs will dictate whether they play or not.

Overall, we have a lot more talent and a decent amount of experience so, barring major injuries, I think an 8 win season is what should be expected; a 9 win season shouldn’t surprise anyone and a 10 win season is certainly something this team is capable of. I still think the kicking game will hold us back, that’s why I think 8 wins is what we’ll see.
1. I have little faith that punting will be much better. We couldn't even get a good punt vs. no rush in the BW game.
2. I expect the OL to be similar. Improvement & depth will offset loss of Smith.
3. WRs should improve. The question is how much.
4. TE might be better. Brenneman replaces James and others improve.
5. No idea what to think of DEs. It's scary that we need 2 to step up.
6. Hull was awesome and will be missed. I think we'll offset his loss with more depth. Last year our LBs seemed to tire in the 4th qtr.
7. Can we replace Ficken?
 
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1. I have little faith that punting will be much better. We couldn't even get a good punt vs. no rush in the BW game.
2. I expect the OL to be similar. Improvement & depth will offset loss of Smith.
3. WRs should improve. The question is how much.
4. TE might be better. Brenneman replaces James and others improve.
5. No idea what to think of DEs. It's scary that we need 2 to step up.
6. Hull was awesome and will be missed. I think we'll offset his loss with more depth. Last year our LBs seemed to tire in the 4th qtr.
7. Can we replace Ficken?

2- I hope depth creates competition that makes the line better.
4- looking for Gesicki to have a big year. Interested to see how Breneman looks.
5- looking for Sickels to step up here. Interested to see how Brown is progressing.
 
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As one ole coach used to say, you either get better or you get worse, you don't stay the same... I'm thinking better simply based upon familiarity alone. I think last year's experience will help and this year,the entire team should be more familiar, therefore comfortable with, what Franklin and Co. are trying to do.

I feel pretty strongly that the reason we tired is because the offense didn't stay on the field long enough to give the D a break. I expect that to be different this season. As others have said, the running game never really got going last year hence all the pressure was on the QB and receivers. I bet the O-Line is better, the backs better and as such, everything else will improve, including time of possession. This will, I believe, result in better defensive play in all 4 quarters, not just hte first 3 and a half.
 
Lots of good points Mickey. I still have an overall concern with depth all across the team. We have one QB who has ever played a meaningful down. Same thing at running back. I also am particularly concerned about depth at tackle. I like Sorrell, Bronson and Palmer, but am worried that their lack of experience and all the negative media attention will be alot for them to handle. I am very concerned at depth at DE and LB. We have lots of young talent that excites me, just not sure that they are ready for prime time. We will have injuries. Some of the young guys will get a shot.
 
[QUOTE="

6. Replacing Hull. The biggest loss on the defensive side of the ball was Mike Hull. Fortunately, I think Wartman-White is up to the task. I’m not sure Klein will do much this season so Cabinda and Bell need to stay healthy (as does Wartman-White). We have depth but it lacks experience. Wooten and Walker are the only other “experienced” linebackers coming into the 15’ season. It’ll be interesting to see what guys like Reeder and Farmer do. I’m not seeing any of the true freshmen playing this year but injuries and needs will dictate whether they play or not.

[/QUOTE]

My neighbor (Cabinda's High School Coach) had lunch with Jason last week - his description regarding Jason after his lunch - "Scary!" Big, muscular, strong - reminded him of a jaguar...
 
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Lots of good points Mickey. I still have an overall concern with depth all across the team. We have one QB who has ever played a meaningful down. Same thing at running back. I also am particularly concerned about depth at tackle. I like Sorrell, Bronson and Palmer, but am worried that their lack of experience and all the negative media attention will be alot for them to handle. I am very concerned at depth at DE and LB. We have lots of young talent that excites me, just not sure that they are ready for prime time. We will have injuries. Some of the young guys will get a shot.


Where the team is coming from depth wise in uncharted waters, due to getting hosed by the NCAA. But every team in college football has to manage the transition of players moving on each year. With the number of starters we have returning we have more continuity than many programs this year.

Breaking in a future QB before he is really needed to play is a challenge for all teams, not just PSU as we recover from the sanctions. OBrien talked about getting his backups some work as well, but it didn't happen then either. The only solution to this is to blow out a few teams so that the backup can play the 4th quarter, but the majority of the preparation of a college QB that is going into his first year starting is going to be the job of his coaches during practice.

Most RB's adjust pretty easily to the college game as far a their running skills go. They either have it or they don't. Blocking is usually more of a learning process. I'm not really worrying about RB's having experience behind Lynch, and I look for a couple of the 5 freshmen RB's to help out this year. I really didn't see anything at the B/W game to lead me to believe either of the two freshmen that played will be a great RB. The long run by Scott was nice, but not as nice as what I saw Sanders do to USC (Upper St. Clair) last Fall as far as moves and the ability to break tackles. Thomas didn't play in the B/W and there are lots of reports that he is a tank - we'll see. To get to 9 or 10 wins we will need a top RB that takes a few to the house. Maybe it's Lynch, but during his many carries last year I didn't see it. Good back but not great.

We will not have legit top 15 team depth on the OL until 2017 or 2018. By that I mean RS-Jr or Senior starters and RS-Jr or RS-soph backups. So it's obvious that OL depth could hurt the team if there are injuries.

At DE our starters did get lots of work last year (Nasib and Sickels), and a couple of the others have played some as well. And with Brown and the incoming frosh we should have no trouble getting a legit 4 DE rotation.

At LB, baring injuries, a full 2 deep is a luxury, but Cabinda played a lot last year and if Kline is healthy he is the solution to depth. He has played all the LB positions and could back up about everyone by himself. But with Wooten, Reeder, and the others we have plenty of depth if these kids have come along as has been reported. Maybe a true frosh plays as well to beef up special teams and then gets some reps as the season goes along (like Apke did at Safety last year) .

But overall, yea we are very young and kids will have to step up to provide good depth, but that is the nature of college football. Preparing the young kids to step in and make minimal mistakes is really the true measure of college coaching performance.
 
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