Keys to a Big Ten Championship

[BruceK-PSU83]

Pretty sure Marinelli lost in Quarters and MF the rest of the way as he did not AA. If he would have lost in Semi's and MF out, he still would have AA'ed (6th Place I believe).

Yes, you are correct; I messed up there. Have edited my previous post accordingly.

 

[The Kid Twist]

But that’s only half the story. Iowa hasn’t wrestled loose at Nationals. It’s not a stretch to think the pressure will affect them.

Exactly! When has Iowa wrestled up and exceeded expectations at Nationals?? They always screw the pooch against Cael at the big dance. This year their Senior studs like Eireman, Murin, Young, Kemmer and Warner looks old and tired. Combine that with no Spencer Lee and I don't see it being close and I think we easily qualify everyone for the dance this year. Engravers can start writing our names on the Big 10 and NCAA trophies!

 

[eddy line]

Iowa pretty much wrestled to their seeds in the 2021 NCAA tourney, with the exception of Marinelli (who was injured) and Brands. And Brands wasn't going to score many teams points anyway, so that really didn't matter in the bigger scheme.

Wrestler - Seed - Result/Placement
Lee - 1 - 1
ADS - 4 - 3
Eierman - 1 - 2
Murin - 12 - lost in quarter-finals, did not AA
Marinelli - 1 - lost in semi-finals, then injury defaulted out
Kem - 1 - 2
Brands - 12 - went 1-2
Warner - 5- 4
Cass - 5 - 3

I would expect similar correlation in 2022, and certainly wouldn't expect Iowa to significantly underperform their seed.

Thanks and fair enough. My hunch -- it's only a hunch and I'm too lazy to do the research -- is that a bigger sample size would indicate that Iowa hasn't wrestled to seed.

But to be clear, I was talking about the team race when I said it was better to be the hunter than the hunted. For individual wrestlers, however, the seeding advantages that come with being the top seed likely offset any additional pressure that comes with it.

 

[mcpat]

I thought it would be interesting to do the suggested seed improvement comparison.

Skip the “how” and scroll directly to RESULTS if you want to read less.

I looked at the last 5 NCAA tournaments (2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2021).

Only 2019 and 2021 seeded all wrestlers. 2016, 2017 and 2028 seeded 16 wrestlers.

For wrestlers that didn’t AA and wrestled to a round above their seed, they were given the high end of the round. For example, Robbie Howard was seeded 23rd last year and made the round of 16. He was assigned a finish of 16th, or 7 spots above seed.

For wrestlers that didn’t AA and wrestled to a round below their seed, they were assigned the low end of the round. For example, Rasheed was a 2 seed in 2019 and made the round of 16. He was assigned a finish of 13th, or 11 spots below seed.

Unseeded wrestlers were treated as being seeded 17th if they finished in the Round of 16 or better. They weren’t included if they didn’t wrestle to at least the round of 16.

A wrestler seeded 9-12 that made the R12 was treated as having wrestled to seed. Ditto for wrestlers seeded 13-16 that made the round of 16.

I excluded wrestlers that got injured before or during the tournament (e.g. Suriano 2017, Marinelli 2021 and Berge 2021 were all excluded).

This work has not been peer reviewed.

RESULTS:

I have Iowa at a net 28 seed improvement and Penn State a net 11 seed improvement. (This reflects 41 Iowa wrestlers and 42 PSU wrestlers.)

(Take out Sam Stoll in 2019, when he wrestled to the round of 12 as a 28 seed and Iowa is instead a net 12 seed improvement.

I have Iowa beating its seed 20 times and Penn State beating its seed 17 times.

However…. Penn State had an average seed of 4.90 as compared to 6.51 for Iowa (these averages excluded unseeded wrestlers).

And Penn State had 26 top 3 seeds as compared to 13 top 3 seeds for Iowa.

(It’s harder to have a seed improvement when you’re the lower seed.)

 

[McScoreley]

It's kind of crazy that Amine, who is an AA because of a MF in the blood round, is the 4th ranked dude in the B1G at 165.

165 was beyond odd last year. 2 forfeits in the blood round. Valencia got hurt in his match against Ethan Smith. Wick wasn't wrestling.

I also think Wentzel beats O'Toole once every 10 times to be honest. O'Toole did some immeasurably stupid that dual.

 

[donboy6499]

165 was beyond odd last year. 2 forfeits in the blood round. Valencia got hurt in his match against Ethan Smith. Wick wasn't wrestling.

I also think Wentzel beats O'Toole once every 10 times to be honest. O'Toole did some immeasurably stupid that dual.

Watch it