Keys to a Big Ten Championship

RoarLions1

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On paper, the Big Ten Wrestling Championship team race is close. Much closer (on paper) in fact than the NCAA Championship. This is due to something I call "compression" for the conference championship, and "decompression" for NCAA's. Those have been shared before, so I'll skip over them.

I see two keys for Penn State to end on top of the team race. they are;
1) Wrestle to your seed
2) Win the bonus point battle

With four likely #1 seeds, those guys have nowhere to go, unlike all other seeds.
Three more PSU wrestlers will be seeded about #3. Beating seed would be awesome, but hold serve and prepare for a better finish at NCAA's.

More bonus points than the opponent can be the same as an extra wrestler placing. It's a big deal in close races.
 

McScoreley

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Iowa will definitely be a tough out at Big Tens, there is a good chance they'll get their entire team in the Top 5. We also will have limited bonus opportunity due to byes. To be honest, I have Iowa as a slight favorite. If we win Big Tens, it makes me WAY more confident about Nationals. If we lose, I would still be optimistic this can be a 2017/2018 situation with Ohio State. What I'm mainly looking for:

1. Get Brady qualified since he won't get a WC, Edsell/Bartlett would have a shot if they can't place within the allocated spots
2. Heck, let's just get everyone qualified so we don't have to worry about any wildcards
3. Kerk has to beat Cassioppi this time around, no ifs ands or buts about it, this is significant for NCAAs seeding.
4. I'd like to see Bartlett start showing signs that he'll open up more in a tournament setting
5. Ideally Hildebrandt make the finals and lock up the 4 or 5 so he has Courtney in the quarters and has a shot at the semis, otherwise, any way you slice it, he's looking at a hammer in the quarters (Suriano, Glory, Vito)
6. I'd like to see Max Dean show more offense on his feet to be honest ... he finds a way to win regardless usually but if he could put on a performance that says I AM the favorite, not the field, that would go a long way
7. GOOD HEALTH is what I pray for the most, AB had a huge scare last year
 

NoVa Lion

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On paper, the Big Ten Wrestling Championship team race is close. Much closer (on paper) in fact than the NCAA Championship. This is due to something I call "compression" for the conference championship, and "decompression" for NCAA's. Those have been shared before, so I'll skip over them.

I see two keys for Penn State to end on top of the team race. they are;
1) Wrestle to your seed
2) Win the bonus point battle

With four likely #1 seeds, those guys have nowhere to go, unlike all other seeds.
Three more PSU wrestlers will be seeded about #3. Beating seed would be awesome, but hold serve and prepare for a better finish at NCAA's.

More bonus points than the opponent can be the same as an extra wrestler placing. It's a big deal in close races.
And for BIGs 8 scoring wrestlers is not enough. We need at least 9, and preferably 10. I would put a smiley face here but because of what Roar calls compression I am actually serious.

My spreadsheet based on Intermat rankings and not including bonus has us winning by 29.5 over Michigan who edges out Iowa by 2 points. However, as Roar said we don't have much upside as I have us with 5 winners, 1 2nd, and 1 3rd, whereas Iowa and Michigan have a lot of room for improvement.
 

eddy line

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Iowa will definitely be a tough out at Big Tens, there is a good chance they'll get their entire team in the Top 5. We also will have limited bonus opportunity due to byes. To be honest, I have Iowa as a slight favorite. If we win Big Tens, it makes me WAY more confident about Nationals. If we lose, I would still be optimistic this can be a 2017/2018 situation with Ohio State. What I'm mainly looking for:

1. Get Brady qualified since he won't get a WC, Edsell/Bartlett would have a shot if they can't place within the allocated spots
2. Heck, let's just get everyone qualified so we don't have to worry about any wildcards
3. Kerk has to beat Cassioppi this time around, no ifs ands or buts about it, this is significant for NCAAs seeding.
4. I'd like to see Bartlett start showing signs that he'll open up more in a tournament setting
5. Ideally Hildebrandt make the finals and lock up the 4 or 5 so he has Courtney in the quarters and has a shot at the semis, otherwise, any way you slice it, he's looking at a hammer in the quarters (Suriano, Glory, Vito)
6. I'd like to see Max Dean show more offense on his feet to be honest ... he finds a way to win regardless usually but if he could put on a performance that says I AM the favorite, not the field, that would go a long way
7. GOOD HEALTH is what I pray for the most, AB had a huge scare last year
Provided 1 through 7 come to fruition (especially 2, 3, 5 and 7), it might actually be better for Iowa to win Big Tens. Let them enter Nationals with all the pressure that comes with being the favorite.
 

McScoreley

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Provided 1 through 7 come to fruition (especially 2, 3, 5 and 7), it might actually be better for Iowa to win Big Tens. Let them enter Nationals with all the pressure that comes with being the favorite.
Beau should watch Yahya Thomas' "On the Mats" feature of Big Ten. Yahya said through Big Tens, he's always just been obsessed with match management, trying to gage his opponent, afraid to make mistakes. Once he entered nationals as the 25 seed, he realized he had nothing to lose and just kept firing nonstop and of course, good things happened.

Yes - I realize Yahya is a full sized 149 unlike Beau btw.
 
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The Japanese Whizzer

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Bartlett is the one to watch at this tournament. Could place 3rd or 10th. Slight underdog to Gomez, Yahya, Murin, Lovett, Van Brill and slight favorite over Rooks, Storr, Blockhus. Isn't beating Sasso and heavy favorite over the rest.
 

McScoreley

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Bartlett is the one to watch at this tournament. Could place 3rd or 10th. Slight underdog to Gomez, Yahya, Murin, Lovett, Van Brill and slight favorite over Rooks, Storr, Blockhus. Isn't beating Sasso and heavy favorite over the rest.
I'd love to be wrong, but I have not seen anything from Bartlett at 149 that makes me think he'd place as high as 3rd. Berge has a better chance of that. Heck .. Edsell has a chance at 4th maybe (Big Ten 165 drops off significantly after the Big 3, Brady beat Amine/Fish no issues and he was trying to get to 157)
 

johnstownsteel

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I'd love to be wrong, but I have not seen anything from Bartlett at 149 that makes me think he'd place as high as 3rd. Berge has a better chance of that. Heck .. Edsell has a chance at 4th maybe (Big Ten 165 drops off significantly after the Big 3, Brady beat Amine/Fish no issues and he was trying to get to 157)
As much as I hate to do it, I have to agree…although I’m pretty sure Japanese Whizzer thinks 3rd is a long shot as well.
 
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AndEEss

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It's kind of crazy that Amine, who is an AA because of a MF in the blood round, is the 4th ranked dude in the B1G at 165.
 

GogglesPaizano

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As you all know I was jumping for joy when we landed Bartlett. He was my top must get at the time.

Beau needs to listen to Gillman on Roku. Once Thomas realized the not so secret, secret and decided to just wrestle, instead of think about score or focusing on the win he started tech'ing guys at the Olympics and Worlds.

Once you have an elite level body (check) elite athleticism (check), elite coaching and conditioning (check), it's all in your head and how you approach wrestling.

Beau could med-high AA for absolutely friggin certain or he could R16 this year, and it has nothing to do with him being a Freshman or undersized. So too could Guliban back in the day. Jimmy never 'got it'.

If Beau he wants it and let's it fly, look out! I saw it for years at the Jr & HS level. Simply put Beau respects collegiate competition too much.

Looking at his body of work both this year and last, I don't know that he "gets it" ... yet.
 

5q

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I just hope all 10 get there

would be nice to see all of them get in their Allocation. Looking forward to 149-165
 
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McScoreley

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For Beau ... making NCAAs and getting to Day 2 would be huge. He doesn't cut really and Day 2 is usually when you start to see big cutters start to gas. Good example, Kyle Parco was at 149 last year when he was really a 141 because he couldn't beat out Durbin Lloren for the spot. Went on a run on the backside on Day 2.
 
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mcpat

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In seeing Micic struggle a bit up at 141, I’m optimistic that Beau will be an absolute stud next year at the right weight class (141).

Anyone with the stats and knowledge care to share their thoughts on Edsell’s chances at an at-large in the unlikely event he’s 8th instead of 1-7?
 
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5q

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Also. Does everyone feel good about Berge getting too 1-7. I saw we want him to get the 10 seed
 

McScoreley

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In seeing Micic struggle a bit up at 141, I’m optimistic that Beau will be an absolute stud next year at the right weight class (141).

Anyone with the stats and knowledge care to share their thoughts on Edsell’s chances at an at-large in the unlikely event he’s 8th instead of 1-7?
If he's 8th, he's almost certainly in IMO. If he goes 0-2, then we might have an issue and would need to hope most of the auto qualifiers grabbed their spots at conferences.
 
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McScoreley

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8-9 is the worst case because it puts him in the quarters against Ryan Deakin. Brady won't be higher than 6 (I'd be shocked if he can get 7) with an 0-0 conference record. 8, 9 puts him on a crash course with Deakin. 10 puts him on the other side. 11 is fine also. 12/13 would start to give him a tough first round match.

7 is ideal but 10 is alright as well.
 

mcpat

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Also. Does everyone feel good about Berge getting too 1-7. I saw we want him to get the 10 seed
What McSoreley said. As for finish, I feel pretty good about it. He didn’t come back to central PA from South Dakota to not make nationals. He was in the quarterfinals at NCAAs last year when he got hurt. Sure, he retired but he didn’t leave the sport.
 

McScoreley

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Just trying to stay opposite Deakin, I believe. I have good confidence in Berge. He beat the likely B1G two-seed last year at NCAAs.

What McSoreley said. As for finish, I feel pretty good about it. He didn’t come back to central PA from South Dakota to not make nationals. He was in the quarterfinals at NCAAs last year when he got hurt. Sure, he retired but he didn’t leave the sport.
Brady was IN shape but not wrestling shape as Cael would say it. I think the past month was getting him into wrestling shape and able to make 157 comfortable, which is tough when you are preparing for matches also. I think Brady came in around 165 and was just like I'll just give not cutting a go. The Marinelli match showed him he really doesn't have the horsepower for 165 at all, not against the elites at least so he decided to go down.

But Brady didn't gain any bad weight at all. Similar to how Hildebrandt was in shape despite retiring. It's crazy discipline, you "retire" from competing but they don't suddenly sit in their room eating wings and drinking beer. They don't drill anymore but they still make cardio and lifting a big part of their routine.
 
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mcpat

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Brady was IN shape but not wrestling shape as Cael would say it. I think the past month was getting him into wrestling shape and able to make 157 comfortable, which is tough when you are preparing for matches also. I think Brady came in around 165 and was just like I'll just give not cutting a go. The Marinelli match showed him he really doesn't have the horsepower for 165 at all, not against the elites at least so he decided to go down.

But Brady didn't gain any bad weight at all. Similar to how Hildebrandt was in shape despite retiring. It's crazy discipline, you "retire" from competing but they don't suddenly sit in their room eating wings and drinking beer. They don't drill anymore but they still make cardio and lifting a big part of their routine.
I deleted the part about Murin getting the 2-seed. :). Maybe 4 given the matches he missed. No disrespect to him though; he might have been the 2 seed had he not missed 2 of the last 3 matches to injury.
 

rmg78

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As you all know I was jumping for joy when we landed Bartlett. He was my top must get at the time.

Beau needs to listen to Gillman on Roku. Once Thomas realized the not so secret, secret and decided to just wrestle, instead of think about score or focusing on the win he started tech'ing guys at the Olympics and Worlds.

Once you have an elite level body (check) elite athleticism (check), elite coaching and conditioning (check), it's all in your head and how you approach wrestling.

Beau could med-high AA for absolutely friggin certain or he could R16 this year, and it has nothing to do with him being a Freshman or undersized. So too could Guliban back in the day. Jimmy never 'got it'.

If Beau he wants it and let's it fly, look out! I saw it for years at the Jr & HS level. Simply put Beau respects collegiate competition too much.

Looking at his body of work both this year and last, I don't know that he "gets it" ... yet.
Post in thread 'Beast of the East' https://bwi.forums.rivals.com/threads/beast-of-the-east.228373/post-3885676
You were down on him and also said that Ferrari was your top get.
 
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IwasAwful

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Brady was IN shape but not wrestling shape as Cael would say it. I think the past month was getting him into wrestling shape and able to make 157 comfortable, which is tough when you are preparing for matches also. I think Brady came in around 165 and was just like I'll just give not cutting a go. The Marinelli match showed him he really doesn't have the horsepower for 165 at all, not against the elites at least so he decided to go down.

But Brady didn't gain any bad weight at all. Similar to how Hildebrandt was in shape despite retiring. It's crazy discipline, you "retire" from competing but they don't suddenly sit in their room eating wings and drinking beer. They don't drill anymore but they still make cardio and lifting a big part of their routine.
The question that keeps popping into my head is, how much did Brady weigh when he wrestled the Bull? Does anyone know? If he was on the descent, it helps explain why he got “bullied” by Alex. From experience, the cut is often harder than maintaining weight.
 

mcpat

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The question that keeps popping into my head is, how much did Brady weigh when he wrestled the Bull? Does anyone know? If he was on the descent, it helps explain why he got “bullied” by Alex. From experience, the cut is often harder than maintaining weight.
I wonder that too. At the same time, Marinelli has been wrestling at a different level since his loss and that one was just after it and at Carver. Perfect Storm.
 

McScoreley

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The question that keeps popping into my head is, how much did Brady weigh when he wrestled the Bull? Does anyone know? If he was on the descent, it helps explain why he got “bullied” by Alex. From experience, the cut is often harder than maintaining weight.
We'll never know lol. Using the descent rule, no more than 164.2 lol since three weeks of 1.5% drop puts him around 157.0 for Rider. I wouldn't be shocked if he was under that though and not cutting. Cael actually mentioned Brady's "weight issues" at 165 was he couldn't really get close to it. Seeing how he looked like he had a full tank off the scale (even against an outmanned opponent) and again at the end, I'll say he was far from a full sized 165 ever.

Brady probably had to do some work to know he can get to 157 comfortably and consistently but it probably wasn't a lot but it's still 5 pounds more to cut even if he was weighing in at 162.
 

RoarLions1

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Provided 1 through 7 come to fruition (especially 2, 3, 5 and 7), it might actually be better for Iowa to win Big Tens. Let them enter Nationals with all the pressure that comes with being the favorite.
Nah...Our guys will still have a target on their backs. Yet they have historically wrestled loose at NCAA's and are having more fun than other teams.
 

STAND with PRIDE

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"I think he feels better and stronger at 157, 165 he has to work hard to keep his weight up."
Brady sure didnt look like a full size 65, anyone know what he weighed in at? Looked good tho nonetheless.
This was right after the Marinelli mauling.


That's the biggest I have ever seen him.
We (PSU) fans are hoping he is going 157 because right now that is our weakest weight, and 157 appears to have a path to more team points.
With that acknowledged, I doubt very much Cael sent an undersized Brady out at 165. Brady is our 165 pounder, and according to my eye test he looks large enough and healthy enough.
 

eddy line

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Nah...Our guys will still have a target on their backs. Yet they have historically wrestled loose at NCAA's and are having more fun than other teams.
But that’s only half the story. Iowa hasn’t wrestled loose at Nationals. It’s not a stretch to think the pressure will affect them.
 
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RoarLions1

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But that’s only half the story. Iowa hasn’t wrestled loose at Nationals. It’s not a stretch to think the pressure will affect them.
Wishful thinking. Penn State guys wrestling with solid effort and energy, and let the chips fall where they may. Worrying about the "other guy" isn't a recipe for success.
 

The Japanese Whizzer

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As much as I hate to do it, I have to agree…although I’m pretty sure Japanese Whizzer thinks 3rd is a long shot as well.
3rd is improbable but not impossible. Beau likes those 2-1 matches, hard to go on a run without getting tripped up with that strategy. Could always bust out of his shell like Nico did his freshman year at NCAAs. I’ll remain optimistic since it doesn’t cost anything to do so.
 

McScoreley

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So. why would Berge start out at 165 when then obvious need was at 157?
There was a need at both weights. Creighton is a tough dude but he's not someone people expect to score much at NCAAs so Brady wanted to see how he could do without cutting, beating the 4/5 seed at 165 a month back was solid but that's a different level than going against Marinelli or Wick. Also, there are certification rules about when Brady could wrestle 157 as a result.
 
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eddy line

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Wishful thinking. Penn State guys wrestling with solid effort and energy, and let the chips fall where they may. Worrying about the "other guy" isn't a recipe for success.
You twist my words. I never said anything about "worrying about the 'other guy'". Rather, I said let Iowa have the pressure that comes with being the favorite. "Better to be the hunter than the hunted." - Gary Payton
 

BruceK-PSU83

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But that’s only half the story. Iowa hasn’t wrestled loose at Nationals. It’s not a stretch to think the pressure will affect them.
Iowa pretty much wrestled to their seeds in the 2021 NCAA tourney, with the exception of Marinelli (who was injured) and Brands. And Brands wasn't going to score many teams points anyway, so that really didn't matter in the bigger scheme.

Wrestler - Seed - Result/Placement
Lee - 1 - 1
ADS - 4 - 3
Eierman - 1 - 2
Murin - 12 - lost in quarter-finals, did not AA
Marinelli - 1 - lost in quarter-finals, then injury defaulted out
Kem - 1 - 2
Brands - 12 - went 1-2
Warner - 5- 4
Cass - 5 - 3

I would expect similar correlation in 2022, and certainly wouldn't expect Iowa to significantly underperform their seed.
 
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CJFisJoePaII

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Iowa pretty much wrestled to their seeds in the 2021 NCAA tourney, with the exception of Marinelli (who was injured) and Brands. And Brands wasn't going to score many teams points anyway, so that really didn't matter in the bigger scheme.

Wrestler - Seed - Result/Placement
Lee - 1 - 1
ADS - 4 - 3
Eierman - 1 - 2
Murin - 12 - lost in quarter-finals, did not AA
Marinelli - 1 - lost in semi-finals, then injury defaulted out
Kem - 1 - 2
Brands - 12 - went 1-2
Warner - 5- 4
Cass - 5 - 3

I would expect similar correlation in 2022, and certainly wouldn't expect Iowa to significantly underperform their seed.

Pretty sure Marinelli lost in Quarters and MF the rest of the way as he did not AA. If he would have lost in Semi's and MF out, he still would have AA'ed (6th Place I believe).
 
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