It's really hard to win an NCAA title

RoarLions1

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The talk on the forum in several threads is already heading down the prognostication trail. Just at 165, and not digging too deep;

-- Keegan is a beast. I think he wins 165 this year...
-- ...give me the cagey veteran, Wick.
-- I say KOT in finals against one of Kharchla or Hamiti.
-- That said, I’m not picking O’Toole to win....I like Wick.

The historical data I've kept shows that (on average) in the past 40+ years;
-- The #1 seed wins a title 53% of the time (last 10 years is exactly 50%)
-- The #2 seed wins a title 23% of the time
-- The #3 seed wins a title 10% of the time
-- The #4 seed wins a title 4% of the time
-- Seeds 5 through 8 win a title 8% of the time
-- Seeds 9+ win a title 2% of the time

There will always be someone across the starting line that wants the title too!!
 

apoharrow

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Any chance you want to determine how Penn State wrestler do as far as seeds since Cael? I mean "I aint smart enough and too lazy"
 
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RoarLions1

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A few snippets from the Cael years at PSU:

-- 64 total All-Americans
-- 15 wrestlers were seeded #1, 13 won. The other 2 came in 2nd.
-- 15 wrestlers were seeded #2, 7 won an individual championship
-- The other #2 seeds came in; 2nd (5), 3rd (2), and DNP (1)
-- Other PSU seeds that won are; 3rd (5), 5th (1), and 9th (1)
-- Of the 64 AA's;
-- 28 did better than their seed
-- 14 did worse than their seed
-- 22 equaled their seed
-- The biggest differentials were; an unseeded wrestler finishing 7th, a #9 seed winning a championship, a #10 seed finishing 2nd, a #15 seed finishing 7th
 
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tomsc

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A few snippets from the Cael years at PSU:

-- 64 total All-Americans
-- 15 wrestlers were seeded #1, 13 won
-- 15 wrestlers were seeded #2, 7 won an individual championship
-- Other PSU seeds that won are; 3rd (5), 5th (1), and 9th (1)
-- Of the 64 AA's;
-- 28 did better than their seed
-- 14 did worse than their seed
-- 22 equaled their seed
That's very, very impressive. Solid data to show how well our coaches get our wrestlers ready for the NCAA's! It's not an accident that our guys peak for NCAA's!
 

STAND with PRIDE

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A few snippets from the Cael years at PSU:

-- 64 total All-Americans
-- 15 wrestlers were seeded #1, 13 won
-- 15 wrestlers were seeded #2, 7 won an individual championship
-- Other PSU seeds that won are; 3rd (5), 5th (1), and 9th (1)
-- Of the 64 AA's;
-- 28 did better than their seed
-- 14 did worse than their seed
-- 22 equaled their seed
It’s what we DO!
 

slushhead

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Mar 10, 2014
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The talk on the forum in several threads is already heading down the prognostication trail. Just at 165, and not digging too deep;

-- Keegan is a beast. I think he wins 165 this year...
-- ...give me the cagey veteran, Wick.
-- I say KOT in finals against one of Kharchla or Hamiti.
-- That said, I’m not picking O’Toole to win....I like Wick.

The historical data I've kept shows that (on average) in the past 40+ years;
-- The #1 seed wins a title 53% of the time (last 10 years is exactly 50%)
-- The #2 seed wins a title 23% of the time
-- The #3 seed wins a title 10% of the time
-- The #4 seed wins a title 4% of the time
-- Seeds 5 through 8 win a title 8% of the time
-- Seeds 9+ win a title 2% of the time

There will always be someone across the starting line that wants the title too!!
Ah, but the one people really have had their eyes on is:
-- The #1 seed wins a title 0% of the time the #1 seed is Marinelli.

What now that he is not #1? I think his chances have doubled after shaking that curse. And it will be fun if PSU takes home the trophy regardless.
 

mcpat

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Roar inspired me to do a little research. Maybe I’ll look up additional years later, but for now…

Last 5 NCAA championships. 50 one-seeds, 50 two-seeds, etc.

- 26 one-seeds (52%) won a championship.
- 7 two-seeds (14%) won a championship
- 9 three-seeds (18%) won a championship
- 4 four-seeds (8%) won a championship
- One 5-seed, one 6-seed, no 7-seeds and two 8-seeds won a championship

- 49 out of 50 (98%) 1-seeds AA’d. Average finish for those 49 was 1.9
- 42 out of 50 (84%) 2-seeds became an AA. Avg finish for those 42 was 3.4.
- 42 out of 50 (84%) 3-seeds AA’d. Avg finish for those 42 was 3.3.
- 40 out of 50 (80%) 4-seeds AA’d. Avg finish for those 40 was 4.1.
- 35 out of 50 (70%) 5-seeds AA’d. Avg finish for those 35 was 4.9.
- 27 out of 50 (54%) 6-seeds AA’d. Avg finish for those 27 was 4.8.
- 29 out of 50 (58%) 7-seeds AA’d. Avg finish for those 29 was 5.9.
- 26 out of 50 (52%) 8-seeds AA’d. Avg finish for those 26 was 5.7.

No weight class in any on that last five years saw all eight top seeds AA.

Edit: 8 seed stats have since been updated for 2016 8-seed Zach Epperly’s 3rd place finish that I missed initially.
 
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El-Jefe

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Ah, but the one people really have had their eyes on is:
-- The #1 seed wins a title 0% of the time the #1 seed is Marinelli.

What now that he is not #1? I think his chances have doubled after shaking that curse. And it will be fun if PSU takes home the trophy regardless.
2 x 0% = 0% ... right?
 
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CholleyVandine

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Raised: PA D1, Reside: NJ D18
And just for kicks, here’s Iowa during the same years:

63 AAs

7 wrestlers were seeded first, 2 of them won titles. Finishes for the other five were 2nd (2), 3rd (1), 7th (1), and DNP (1)

[53% of all top seeds win titles; 87% of top seeds from Penn State win titles; 29% of top seeds from Iowa win titles]

13 Iowa wrestlers were seeded second. Three of them won titles and six of them finished 2nd. The others finished 3rd (1), 5th (2), and 7th (1)

[23% of all #2 seeds win titles; 23% of Iowa #2 seeds win titles; 47% of Penn State #2 seeds win titles]
 
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RoarLions1

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All the above shows the craziness of the NCAA Championships. Which is why I love them so. the odds are still with the higher seeds doing better than those below them, but one just never knows when those upsets will happen -- and they WILL happen.

Using seeds alone; in 2021 there were 68 upsets in the championship bracket alone (320 bouts), or a smidgen over 20%. I'm guessing there were a higher percentage in wrestlebacks (also 320 bouts).
 
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STAND with PRIDE

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All the above shows the craziness of the NCAA Championships. Which is wht I love them so. the odds are still with the higher seeds doing better than those below them, but one just never knows when those upsets will happen -- and they WILL happen.

Using seeds alone; in 2021 there were 68 upsets in the championship bracket alone (320 bouts), or a smidgen over 20%. I'm guessing there were a higher percentage in wrestlebacks (also 320 bouts).
Curious to know how many of those “ upsets” were Non-B10 guys with a bogus high seed.
 
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RoarLions1

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And just for kicks, here’s Iowa during the same years:

63 AAs

7 wrestlers were seeded first, 2 of them won titles. Finishes for the other five were 2nd (2), 3rd (1), 5th (2), and DNP (1)

[53% of all top seeds win titles; 87% of top seeds from Penn State win titles; 29% of top seeds from Iowa win titles]

13 Iowa wrestlers were seeded second. Three of them won titles and six of them finished 2nd. The others finished 3rd (1), 5th (2), and 7th (1)

[23% of all #2 seeds win titles; 23% of Iowa #2 seeds win titles; 47% of Penn State #2 seeds win titles]

love these stats. good work fellas.

who was the 1 seed that dnp'd?
Willie, I'm assuming you are referring to Cholley's post. Out of the #1 seed Marinelli DNP in 2021, and finished 7th from the #1 seed in 2019.
 

CholleyVandine

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Bull, last year
love these stats. good work fellas.

who was the 1 seed that dnp'd?

Willie, I'm assuming you are referring to Cholley's post. Out of the #1 seed Marinelli DNP in 2021, and finished 7th from the #1 seed in 2019.
Yep. As Roar and SStark said, Bull last year was the #1 seed who DNP'd.

The two Iowa top seeds who won titles were McDonough (2012) and Spencer (2021).

The ones who finished second were Eierman and Kemerer (both in 2021)

The one who finished third was Gilman (2017)

And the one who finished 7th was also Bull (2019).
 

mcpat

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2016. 174 lbs. Bo Nickal 2nd to MM.. The 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 8 seeds DNP.
I found an error in this. The 8 seed, Zach Epperly, placed 3rd after losing in the 1st round.

that means my other statistical post was wrong too.
 

PSU Mike

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The talk on the forum in several threads is already heading down the prognostication trail. Just at 165, and not digging too deep;

-- Keegan is a beast. I think he wins 165 this year...
-- ...give me the cagey veteran, Wick.
-- I say KOT in finals against one of Kharchla or Hamiti.
-- That said, I’m not picking O’Toole to win....I like Wick.

The historical data I've kept shows that (on average) in the past 40+ years;
-- The #1 seed wins a title 53% of the time (last 10 years is exactly 50%)
-- The #2 seed wins a title 23% of the time
-- The #3 seed wins a title 10% of the time
-- The #4 seed wins a title 4% of the time
-- Seeds 5 through 8 win a title 8% of the time
-- Seeds 9+ win a title 2% of the time

There will always be someone across the starting line that wants the title too!!
Yeah, but take out Marinelli and #1 wins 83% of the time …

🎣
 
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82bordeaux

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Yeah, but take out Marinelli and #1 wins 83% of the time …

🎣
giphy.gif
 

HAMMER167

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All the above shows the craziness of the NCAA Championships. Which is why I love them so. the odds are still with the higher seeds doing better than those below them, but one just never knows when those upsets will happen -- and they WILL happen.

Using seeds alone; in 2021 there were 68 upsets in the championship bracket alone (320 bouts), or a smidgen over 20%. I'm guessing there were a higher percentage in wrestlebacks (also 320 bouts).

I do know the craziness well… Love seeing the upsets and an underdog emerge. I know first hand what it feels like to be the NCAA tournament’s 9 seed and then upsetting both the defending champ and defending runner-up enroute to getting third. Beating the 2, 4, 5 & 7 seeds along the way to bronze felt pretty good, but the loss to the 1 seed in the semifinals had me waking up in cold sweat, re-wrestling that match for months after.
 

RoarLions1

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I do know the craziness well… Love seeing the upsets and an underdog emerge. I know first hand what it feels like to be the NCAA tournament’s 9 seed and then upsetting both the defending champ and defending runner-up enroute to getting third. Beating the 2, 4, 5 & 7 seeds along the way to bronze felt pretty good, but the loss to the 1 seed in the semifinals had me waking up in cold sweat, re-wrestling that match for months after.
Going 5-1 that year at NCAA's, and finishing 3rd was an awesome accomplishment. The wrestling success later in life was awesome too. You've overcome a lot, and have inspired many.:)
 

BoHunter0210

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Feb 28, 2018
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Do you think Cael comes here for stats and uses these to get high level recruits? I'm a numbers guy, so this is very telling of our program's success.

But I also think..."Win team titles at Penn State, that's what we do!" OR "You come to Penn State you win big matches, you win team titles!"
 

lions#1

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A few snippets from the Cael years at PSU:

-- 64 total All-Americans
-- 15 wrestlers were seeded #1, 13 won. The other 2 came in 2nd.
-- 15 wrestlers were seeded #2, 7 won an individual championship
-- The other #2 seeds came in; 2nd (5), 3rd (2), and DNP (1)
-- Other PSU seeds that won are; 3rd (5), 5th (1), and 9th (1)
-- Of the 64 AA's;
-- 28 did better than their seed
-- 14 did worse than their seed
-- 22 equaled their seed
-- The biggest differentials were; an unseeded wrestler finishing 7th, a #9 seed winning a championship, a #10 seed finishing 2nd, a #15 seed finishing 7th
Who was the #9 seed that won?
I'm guessing either Q. Wright or M. Brown.......
If it was Q. Wright what was his seeding for his other title?
 

El-Jefe

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Who was the #9 seed that won?
I'm guessing either Q. Wright or M. Brown.......
If it was Q. Wright what was his seeding for his other title?
Q was the 9 seed in 2011 and the 2 seed in 2013.

Hall was the 5 seed in 2017.

All the rest of Cael's PSU champs were at least the 3 seed. Brown was the 2 seed in 2015.
 
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dunkej01

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Q was the 9 seed in 2011 and the 2 seed in 2013.

Hall was the 5 seed in 2017.

All the rest of Cael's PSU champs were at least the 3 seed. Brown was the 2 seed in 2015.
Q is the only one that cael really had to coach up i guess

further proof that Cael only recruits top seeded kids and doesnt have to work hard to develop them
 

mcpat

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I’m amazed at how far and away being the 1-seed matters. There is a ton of separation from being a 1-seed to being a 2-seed.

Historically there is also good separation from being a 2-seed to being a 3-seed. But over the last five tourneys, the 3-seeds slightly out performed the 2-seeds.

A couple unresearched thoughts on that:

- The 1-seed is often the easiest to seed. It’s the undefeated guy from the Big Ten that crushed everyone despite the toughest schedule.

- After seeding the one guy, who is often the Big Ten wrestler that went unbeaten with the toughest schedule, the 2-seed, recently, is often the guy from the lesser conference with a great record. He’s not as tested and therefore doesn’t do as well. Then we get back to the Big Ten guy at the 3-seed.
 
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nerfstate

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TLDR Version of basically this entire forum:

...
[53% of all top seeds win titles; 87% of top seeds from Penn State win titles; 29% of top seeds from Iowa win titles]
...
[23% of all #2 seeds win titles; 23% of Iowa #2 seeds win titles; 47% of Penn State #2 seeds win titles]
 
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RoarLions1

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I’m amazed at how far and away being the 1-seed matters. There is a ton of separation from being a 1-seed to being a 2-seed.

Historically there is also good separation from being a 2-seed to being a 3-seed. But over the last five tourneys, the 3-seeds slightly out performed the 2-seeds.

A couple unresearched thoughts on that:

- The 1-seed is often the easiest to seed. It’s the undefeated guy from the Big Ten that crushed everyone despite the toughest schedule.

- After seeding the one guy, who is often the Big Ten wrestler that went unbeaten with the toughest schedule, the 2-seed, recently, is often the guy from the lesser conference with a great record. He’s not as tested and therefore doesn’t do as well. Then we get back to the Big Ten guy at the 3-seed.
Researched...because I thought it might be interesting;
-- Statistically speaking, the Big Ten gets the same number of #1 and #2 seeds
-- It tapers off from there, such that the number of 6, 7, and 8 seeds are about half of the #1 or #2 seeds
-- About 60%+ of ALL #1 seeds recently have been Big Ten wrestlers
-- About 35% of all seeded wrestlers come from the B1G
 
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