Intermat Rankings

McScoreley

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PSU #1 Tournament Team at 99, Iowa at 2 at 73.

Howard 18
RBY 1
Bartlett 17
SVN 29
157 UR
Facundo 24
Starocci 1
Brooks 1
Dean 1
Kerkvliet 2

Makes sense, Howard/Bartlett does have some results to indicate a Top 20 rank. Facundo/SVN (and maybe Haines) doesn't. It's just rankings, not projections per se.
 
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Ian

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PSU #1 Tournament Team at 99, Iowa at 2 at 73.

Howard 18
RBY 1
Bartlett 17
SVN 29
157 UR
Facundo UR
Starocci 1
Brooks 1
Dean 1
Kerkvliet 2

Makes sense, Howard/Bartlett does have some results to indicate a Top 20 rank. Facundo/SVN (and maybe Haines) doesn't. It's just rankings, not projections per se.
Scary when half the team is expected to win the natty by 26 pts. Mark it down now. Nobody else will get to 100pts but PSU will drop 135+! That’s a three to four wrestler spread.
 

McScoreley

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I know it's freestyle from a year ago but just a reference, Bartlett tech falled CJ Composto (#4) in free and also beat Clay Carlson (#6) a few weeks ago.

Words can't describe how open 141 is after Matthews and Woods (Clear 1 and 2 IMO) and neither of them tbh are proven world beaters if anything. Both are 1x AA at that weight also.
 
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dicemen99

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Those rankings are very reasonable.

Howard is a question mark with his shoulder.
BB making round of 16 is a 2-2 or 3-2 performance which is pretty reasonable.
We haven't really seen SVN wrestle for a couple of years.
We don't know if Levi is coming out of shirt and probably won't know until 2023.
Facundo round of 24 is 1-2 or 2-2 at nationals which is pretty reasonable at this point.

Makes you realize that we are really counting on the big 5 and we need them to hold serve. Which barring injury is very likely.
 
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dicemen99

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I know it's freestyle from a year ago but just a reference, Bartlett tech falled CJ Composto (#4) in free and also beat Clay Carlson (#6) a few weeks ago.

Words can't describe how open 141 is after Matthews and Woods (Clear 1 and 2 IMO) and neither of them tbh are proven world beaters if anything. Both are 1x AA at that weight also.
Its freestyle.

Can BB get 4 wins at nationals before he loses two? That's a legitimate question.

He's capable but hes also capable of losing his 2nd before he wins his 2nd.
 

McScoreley

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Those rankings are very reasonable.

Howard is a question mark with his shoulder.
BB making round of 16 is a 2-2 or 3-2 performance which is pretty reasonable.
We haven't really seen SVN wrestle for a couple of years.
We don't know if Levi is coming out of shirt and probably won't know until 2023.
Facundo round of 24 is 1-2 or 2-2 at nationals which is pretty reasonable at this point.

Makes you realize that we are really counting on the big 5 and we need them to hold serve. Which barring injury is very likely.
Rankings - yes, agreed. You have to earn a high ranking by winning folk matches.

As for relying solely on the Big 5, agree to disagree. I'm operating on faith obviously since we haven't seen a lot of the guys but I have a hard time buying we'll get minimal points outside of the 4 Champs + Kerk.

Howard - definitely. Very concerning since he's gotten hurt every tournament he's wrestled in basically. But Cael's hit rate with freshman blue chippers out of redshirt tends to be good. To think we'll have 5 non point scorers is just not likely IMO.
 

McScoreley

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Its freestyle.

Can BB get 4 wins at nationals before he loses two? That's a legitimate question.

He's capable but hes also capable of losing his 2nd before he wins his 2nd.
You're opting for a glass half empty approach to the new guys (or Beau at a new weight). I'm going for a half full.

I trust our coaches to eventually break through with Beau at 141. Hell even Jimmy Gulibon (biggest head case) AA'ed in his 3rd season at his ideal weight.
 

dicemen99

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You're opting for a glass half empty approach to the new guys (or Beau at a new weight). I'm going for a half full.

I trust our coaches to eventually break through with Beau at 141. Hell even Jimmy Gulibon (biggest head case) AA'ed in his 3rd season at his ideal weight.
I don't think I'm operating from a glass half empty perspective. If Haines comes out of RS I'll be very optimistic about his chances. I know Caels track record in that situation and I've seen him wrestle.

Howard, BB, and Facundo - I ve seen them and I think that past actions predict future behavior. I think that's the deal - even at PSU. Progression is incremental. There's been a ton of evidence collected on Howard and BB, so hoping for a new guy to trot out there next year is not realistic to me. Maybe you can argue Facundo but I've yet to see him beat anyone really good, so I'll reserve judgment.

As far as SVN, not sure how anyone could have any idea how he is going to look this year. I hope he's great, I really do, but who friggin knows?
 

McScoreley

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I don't think I'm operating from a glass half empty perspective. If Haines comes out of RS I'll be very optimistic about his chances. I know Caels track record in that situation and I've seen him wrestle.

Howard, BB, and Facundo - I ve seen them and I think that past actions predict future behavior. I think that's the deal - even at PSU. Progression is incremental. There's been a ton of evidence collected on Howard and BB, so hoping for a new guy to trot out there next year is not realistic to me. Maybe you can argue Facundo but I've yet to see him beat anyone really good, so I'll reserve judgment.

As far as SVN, not sure how anyone could have any idea how he is going to look this year. I hope he's great, I really do, but who friggin knows?
Like I said, I'm operating on faith. I didn't mean to imply you were being pessimistic, my bad if you got those vibes but I just can't see us only having 5 AA level guys next year. Howard I would be super optimistic about if it wasn't for his injuries. He had almost no mat time as a freshman and basically put himself in every match as a freshman just off his wrestling sense and ability to scramble. Now, I'm very nervous and sad that he probably just won't be able to ever stay healthy.

I didn't see Cenzo beat anyone good in his redshirting year, I just kept hearing about he kept missing weight at opens lol. Facundo dominated the weaker competition for the most part this year. Bo Nickal I thought would be a lower AA as a freshman. I said before but 2nd to 3rd year in the room is often when we major jumps from PSU guys. Saw Nick Lee and RBY go from mid level AAs to championship contenders. Zain (though a lot of that was physical) started his legendary three year run. Bo became the true "shoot on me and I'll pin you" monster that we know him as today. I don't even expect Bartlett to be a title contender at 141 but I'm pretty optimistic about his abilities in a very open 141 class. He's going to remain a defensive reattacker but I saw enough signs this freestyle season he's going to be better at 141.

Maye I'm hopelessly optimistic at least but Cael spoils us lol.
 
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dicemen99

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You're opting for a glass half empty approach to the new guys (or Beau at a new weight). I'm going for a half full.

I trust our coaches to eventually break through with Beau at 141. Hell even Jimmy Gulibon (biggest head case) AA'ed in his 3rd season at his ideal weight.

Like I said, I'm operating on faith. I didn't mean to imply you were being pessimistic, my bad if you got those vibes but I just can't see us only having 5 AA level guys next year. Howard I would be super optimistic about if it wasn't for his injuries. He had almost no mat time as a freshman and basically put himself in every match as a freshman just off his wrestling sense and ability to scramble. Now, I'm very nervous and sad that he probably just won't be able to ever stay healthy.

I didn't see Cenzo beat anyone good in his redshirting year, I just kept hearing about he kept missing weight at opens lol. Facundo dominated the weaker competition for the most part this year. Bo Nickal I thought would be a lower AA as a freshman. I said before but 2nd to 3rd year in the room is often when we major jumps from PSU guys. Saw Nick Lee and RBY go from mid level AAs to championship contenders. Zain (though a lot of that was physical) started his legendary three year run. Bo became the true "shoot on me and I'll pin you" monster that we know him as today. I don't even expect Bartlett to be a title contender at 141 but I'm pretty optimistic about his abilities in a very open 141 class. He's going to remain a defensive reattacker but I saw enough signs this freestyle season he's going to be better at 141.

Maye I'm hopelessly optimistic at least but Cael spoils us lol.
Agreed on Cenzo. But I'm doubting Facundo comes close to being Cenzo.

All of the guys you mentioned above made jumps but were way ahead of where BB is now - after 2 years in - in their freshman years. Yes, Howard has talent but counting on him to make it through the season is difficult.

The guys that have "it" usually make it pretty clear early. They might still have some work to do but it usually shows up in something more than close losses.

Like I said last post, I'll give you Facundo. Lets see him wrestle a couple of top 10 guys. Maybe hes got it. We'll know by the end of January.

I think we already know about the other two - RH and BB. Not that they aren't talented and won't end up with quality Gulibon or even Conaway careers here. And this is not a call to replace them or say they're busts. Not everyone is going to be in the hunt. Just a realistic look at where the bread is buttered for the team race. It would really surprise me to get meaningful points out of 125 or 141.
 

Sportfan2017

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You're opting for a glass half empty approach to the new guys (or Beau at a new weight). I'm going for a half full.

I trust our coaches to eventually break through with Beau at 141. Hell even Jimmy Gulibon (biggest head case) AA'ed in his 3rd season at his ideal weight.
You do realize that "half Full" or "half Empty"........no matter how you choose to look at still equals 50%. I am assuming that "half Full" implies that you believe that going forward they will over perform.....ie....greater than 50%........which is more than half full. Just say it now. They will out perform average expectations. Be Bold! :) Stop the wishy-washy and statement....."The new guys will overperform the average or median expectations" Commit to then Make it so. They usually do :)
 

Sportfan2017

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Agreed on Cenzo. But I'm doubting Facundo comes close to being Cenzo.

All of the guys you mentioned above made jumps but were way ahead of where BB is now - after 2 years in - in their freshman years. Yes, Howard has talent but counting on him to make it through the season is difficult.

The guys that have "it" usually make it pretty clear early. They might still have some work to do but it usually shows up in something more than close losses.

Like I said last post, I'll give you Facundo. Lets see him wrestle a couple of top 10 guys. Maybe hes got it. We'll know by the end of January.

I think we already know about the other two - RH and BB. Not that they aren't talented and won't end up with quality Gulibon or even Conaway careers here. And this is not a call to replace them or say they're busts. Not everyone is going to be in the hunt. Just a realistic look at where the bread is buttered for the team race. It would really surprise me to get meaningful points out of 125 or 141.
Not an unreasonable expectation based on past results. Which is why I personally believe that if Levi is the clear winner at 157 that he will be the starter as a true freshman. The worst thing that can happen is to be the favorites and lose because of injury or a "freak" type caIl or result. If you have a chance to win.....you fire all the bullets. No other way

1782​

.
 

McScoreley

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I understand taking a cautious approach to Bartlett but what other PSU wrestler has come in and dealt with the same situation as Bartlett? His first year was the COVID year with no open tournaments and practices were shut down half the year and since then, he's been wrestling up for the team. Good comparison for Beau might actually be Morgan McIntosh (even McIntosh got the redshirt after his freshman year) Morgan went for the team "undersized" as a freshman and went 1-2 at NCAAs and would AA the rest of his career after his redshirt year.

Like I said, if it was an insanely deep 141 class, I'd agree to not expect points but literally none of the wrestlers at that weight had any more of an impressive pedigree than Beau after 2 years in their career. Everyone is pessimistic because Beau was frustrating to watch at 149 and will take some time to adjust to 141.

I for one expect Bartlett to continue progressing and expect the 3rd year jump from him. No not to contender like Lee or RBY but is it fair to say Beau was a R12-R16 level guy at 141 (he was 13th seed at 149 and beat multiple Top 15 guys) ... why not to mid AA in a weaker class? Like I said, the 3rd year is the year Jimmy Gulibon AA'ed after looking totally lost his first 2 years.
 

McScoreley

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Not an unreasonable expectation based on past results. Which is why I personally believe that if Levi is the clear winner at 157 that he will be the starter as a true freshman. The worst thing that can happen is to be the favorites and lose because of injury or a "freak" type caIl or result. If you have a chance to win.....you fire all the bullets. No other way

1782​

.
Similar to 2019 when we looked by far to be the favorites but Cael wrestled RBY immediately anyways. Hindsight 20-20, his points really weren't needed (especially since I don't think we expected Shak to bounce so early) but when Cael wants to use the best team, he usually fires all bullets.
 

dicemen99

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I understand taking a cautious approach to Bartlett but what other PSU wrestler has come in and dealt with the same situation as Bartlett? His first year was the COVID year with no open tournaments and practices were shut down half the year and since then, he's been wrestling up for the team. Good comparison for Beau might actually be Morgan McIntosh (even McIntosh got the redshirt after his freshman year) Morgan went for the team "undersized" as a freshman and went 1-2 at NCAAs and would AA the rest of his career after his redshirt year.

Like I said, if it was an insanely deep 141 class, I'd agree to not expect points but literally none of the wrestlers at that weight had any more of an impressive pedigree than Beau after 2 years in their career. Everyone is pessimistic because Beau was frustrating to watch at 149 and will take some time to adjust to 141.

I for one expect Bartlett to continue progressing and expect the 3rd year jump from him. No not to contender like Lee or RBY but is it fair to say Beau was a R12-R16 level guy at 141 (he was 13th seed at 149 and beat multiple Top 15 guys) ... why not to mid AA in a weaker class? Like I said, the 3rd year is the year Jimmy Gulibon AA'ed after looking totally lost his first 2 years.
Very reasonable take on BB, who is the only one we probably really disagree on. But yes I think he is a top 15 type guy. And its likely he'll be as good as at least a couple of guys who make the podium at 141 next year. We'll see if the weight ends up being as weak as predicted - between newcomers and guys changing weights it doesn't always work out as expected.

To sum up my position, if we are relying on a 5th place or better finish next year at 141 to finish ahead of ASU I'll be really uncomfortable.
 
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jschrantz

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Very reasonable take on BB, who is the only one we probably really disagree on. But yes I think he is a top 15 type guy. And its likely he'll be as good as at least a couple of guys who make the podium at 141 next year. We'll see if the weight ends up being as weak as predicted - between newcomers and guys changing weights it doesn't always work out as expected.

To sum up my position, if we are relying on a 5th place or better finish next year at 141 to finish ahead of ASU I'll be really uncomfortable.
I’d love for somebody to walk me through how ASU approaches 110 pts, 😂
 
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dicemen99

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I’d love for somebody to walk me through how ASU approaches 110 pts, 😂
Was posting from my phone and I'm such an old man, I couldn't get the emoji to post after ASU so I decided just to roll with it without the sarcasm alert.

Should have known better, I think that @Chickenman Testa and maybe @dunkej01 are the only ones here that my humor aligns with. Probably not a good sign...
 

Cstroke

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Was posting from my phone and I'm such an old man, I couldn't get the emoji to post after ASU so I decided just to roll with it without the sarcasm alert.

Should have known better, I think that @Chickenman Testa and maybe @dunkej01 are the only ones here that my humor aligns with. Probably not a good sign...
This better not be a FUN joke
 

jack66

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To me, that line-up looks to have a lot more upside than downside.

I'm not basing this on what I've seen from them so far, I'm basing this on Cael's record of developing young wrestlers and moving them into the line-up.

133, 174, 184, 197, hwt = 1, 1, 1, 1, 2. Might not reach that level, but they won't miss by much

125, 141, 149, 157, 165 = 18, 17, 28, UR, 24. High school studs at each weight. For them to perform at that level, it just wouldn't fit with anything we've seen from a CS coached team. Maybe 1 or 2 will match those rankings, but collectively there is a LOT of upside.
 
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El-Jefe

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I think it should be pointed out that BB is 12th on Wrestlestat and 17th on Intermat.
Why use bait, it's too much work.

2c1e4d0a-92d2-4259-9abd-32b143bfa8fa.gif
 

El-Jefe

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To me, that line-up looks to have a lot more upside than downside.

I'm not basing this on what I've seen from them so far, I'm basing this on Cael's record of developing young wrestlers and moving them into the line-up.

133, 174, 184, 197, hwt = 1, 1, 1, 1, 2. Might not reach that level, but they won't miss by much

125, 131, 149, 157, 165 = 18, 17, 28, UR, 24. High school studs at each weight. For them to perform at that level, it just wouldn't fit with anything we've seen from a CS coached team. Maybe 1 or 2 will match those rankings, but collectively there is a LOT of upside.
Bingo.

@dicemen99 is right -- these rankings are entirely appropriate based upon what each has accomplished in college folkstyle. (Maybe Howard could be a little higher for beating Heinselman at nationals, but then injuries.)

@jack66 is right too -- this is probably at or very near their floor (if healthy).

Let's see where we stand after the Scuffle or Collegiate Duals or whatever holiday event. (Except not Midlands,no room there.) Rankings will look different, and likely in a good way.
 

Ja1339

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Although it’ll be difficult, I’m trying to temper my expectations for the these guys right out of the gate. I agree with the earlier comments about the current rankings, and about their upside.

I’ll add that these young men certainly have the weight of very high expectations on their shoulders.
 

McScoreley

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Very reasonable take on BB, who is the only one we probably really disagree on. But yes I think he is a top 15 type guy. And its likely he'll be as good as at least a couple of guys who make the podium at 141 next year. We'll see if the weight ends up being as weak as predicted - between newcomers and guys changing weights it doesn't always work out as expected.

To sum up my position, if we are relying on a 5th place or better finish next year at 141 to finish ahead of ASU I'll be really uncomfortable.
For the record, I appreciate everything dicemen brings to this board and really respect and value his opinion. I get his take, I'm just agreeing to disagree (particularly about Bartlett) but he very well could be right. As for nerves of needing young guys to score. It doesn't seem needed right now but when we're relying solely on a big 5 to carry us, all it takes is one major injury to make things scary (though injuries are just scary in general). Something always happens during the season. Don't forget something happened to basically all of our Big 5 last year (RBY, Lee, Carter, Dean, Kerk all got hurt last year, Brooks got injured the year before at Big Tens)

I for one believe all of our young guys are going to be contending for the podium. Howard I pray can just make it through a season unfortunately.
 

dicemen99

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For the record, I appreciate everything dicemen brings to this board and really respect and value his opinion. I get his take, I'm just agreeing to disagree (particularly about Bartlett) but he very well could be right. As for nerves of needing young guys to score. It doesn't seem needed right now but when we're relying solely on a big 5 to carry us, all it takes is one major injury to make things scary (though injuries are just scary in general). Something always happens during the season. Don't forget something happened to basically all of our Big 5 last year (RBY, Lee, Carter, Dean, Kerk all got hurt last year, Brooks got injured the year before at Big Tens)

I for one believe all of our young guys are going to be contending for the podium. Howard I pray can just make it through a season unfortunately.
The appreciation is mutual. I always look forward to your posts and I hope you're right on this one.

Likely my "pessimism" is also is colored by a couple of things that I've posted here about for a while:

1) BB - I don't see the weight change as a cure-all for some of the issues that have seemingly held BB back the last two years. Sasso match aside (and Sasso wrestles EVERBODY that way) I don't really see him remotely competitive with anyone who is a force at 149 even beyond Yianni - guys like Gomez, Lovett, and even Murin totally controlled his matches. And even when he is in a close one with a 2nd tier-type guy, there has often been a "lapse" that results in a loss rather than a win. At this point, I think projecting BB to be a mid-AA (which for me is a top 5 guy at a weight) is like an Iowa fan saying that this is the year Murin is getting his AA, and if Sasso goes 157, he's got a path to the finals. Yeah, it's possible, but past experience just screams not going to happen.
2) Shoulder injuries - we got very lucky with AC and you see how precarious the cliff he was on with the shoulder after. Major shoulder injuries in wrestling are generally a) reoccurring & b) progress impeding. The "good outcomes" after major shoulder injuries are outliers. This is not just an RH take, there are loads of wrestlers whose careers have been stalled from them.
 

McScoreley

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I don't think cutting weight suddenly is suddenly going to change Beau, I believe he will more or less remain the same guy stylistically at 141. But him not getting bullied will allow him to turn some of his close losses to close wins.

In his match against D'Emilio, he seemed to suddenly enjoy his newfound strength advantage so much and started just playing the push out game for whatever reason and before you knew it, he gave up a takedown then 4 and lost. The kid is not short on confidence, which is good. He said in one of his interviews that he's progressing as well as any former PSU hammer in his first so and so matches and that his shot to finish ratio is high. I said before but I think the fact the kid didn't even want to try 149 in the free year when it was clear Nick was taking 141 said something.

To be honest, I think a lot of the frustration with Beau came from the fact that he was publicly instructed by Cael to just open it up and it still never came.

I will say again, 141 is just open. It's a weight we should be picking up points at quite honestly with a former blue chipper who has 2 years of experience now. #3 at that weight per WrestleStat is Jake Bergeland right now who was a career 149 who never was Minnesota's starter before dropping to 141 and placing 7th last year. Do I think Beau would for sure beat Bergeland? No but I refuse to believe he can't. I know it will settle itself over the course of next season but I don't think there is a single guy who is more than a 1x AA in that field right now and the top two guys were 5th and 6th in 2022 (Matthews and Woods)
 
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Ja1339

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I don't think I'm operating from a glass half empty perspective. If Haines comes out of RS I'll be very optimistic about his chances. I know Caels track record in that situation and I've seen him wrestle.

Howard, BB, and Facundo - I ve seen them and I think that past actions predict future behavior. I think that's the deal - even at PSU. Progression is incremental. There's been a ton of evidence collected on Howard and BB, so hoping for a new guy to trot out there next year is not realistic to me. Maybe you can argue Facundo but I've yet to see him beat anyone really good, so I'll reserve judgment.

As far as SVN, not sure how anyone could have any idea how he is going to look this year. I hope he's great, I really do, but who friggin knows?

Dice, can I ask why the discrepancy in your outlook between Haines and Facundo? For Haines you mentioned you’ll be optimistic about his chances. For Alex, you mention you haven’t seen him beat anyone good yet, so you’ll reserve judgment. In your opinion, has Haines faced better competition or has he just looked better than Alex so far? Thanks in advance, and I’ll add I always enjoy reading your posts.
 
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El-Jefe

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I will say again, 141 is just open. (snip) I don't think there is a single guy who is more than a 1x AA in that field right now and the top two guys were 5th and 6th in 2022 (Matthews and Woods)
This is really the best argument for Bartlett placing at this time -- "somebody's gotta."

Putting some numbers against his 2-yr performance:
vs. 1-8 seeds: 1-6
vs. Top 8 placers: 1-7
vs 9-12 seeds: 0-3
vs. R12 finishers: 1-2
vs. all qualifiers: 10-12 (includes the top 12 seeds above)

He did a pretty good job against the guys below top 12. That will likely continue at 141, and sets his floor in the 13-16 range. Which matches his 2022 seed (13th).

To make the podium, he'll have to do better against the top 12 guys. Being at a lighter and much weaker weight will help.

Winning more consistently in the regular season and at B10s, thus getting a better seed and better draw, will help more. Which is to say: it's under his control.
 

El-Jefe

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Dice, can I ask why the discrepancy in your outlook between Haines and Facundo? For Haines you mentioned you’ll be optimistic about his chances. For Alex, you mention you haven’t seen him beat anyone good yet, so you’ll reserve judgment. In your opinion, has Haines faced better competition or has he just looked better than Alex so far? Thanks in advance, and I’ll add I always enjoy reading your posts.
Not Dice but IMO: both.

Haines beat Gallagher and Cerniglia. Both are better wins than Facundo's best win (Barczak) or his best 2 losses (Fish and Bullard). Those 3 guys combined to go 2-6 (including a consi pigtail win) at nationals.

Haines appears to have better offense -- better setups, angles, attack rate, counters, and transition to back points. Facundo has great defense and a great double, but doesn't pull the trigger as often and comes in straight-on a lot.

Facundo is a horse. He'll be a force when he improves angles and attack rate.
 

nitlion6

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Very reasonable take on BB, who is the only one we probably really disagree on. But yes I think he is a top 15 type guy. And its likely he'll be as good as at least a couple of guys who make the podium at 141 next year. We'll see if the weight ends up being as weak as predicted - between newcomers and guys changing weights it doesn't always work out as expected.

To sum up my position, if we are relying on a 5th place or better finish next year at 141 to finish ahead of ASU I'll be really uncomfortable.
I can't imagine we get pressed next March, but sometimes those lower ranked guys make the difference.
I remember talking to Conaway after another championship and I told Jordan good tournament. Jordan just looked at me puzzled and said I was 2-2. I looked him in the eye and said, "dude, we won by 4 and you scored 3.5."
 

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