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Further boiled down:
“At the risk of confusing one person on this board, I like to look at
@BobDole's excellent presentation of the data with another twist.
- PSU win % in the semis when they are the higher seed = 100% (sample size = 38)
- The field win % in the semis when they are the higher seed = 69.23% (sample size = 182)
A difference of 30.77%
- PSU win % in the semis when they are the lower seed = 53.85% (sample size = 13)
- The field win % in the semis when they are the lower seed = 23.67% (sample size = 207)
A difference of 30.17%
Those differences are not random luck.
To come back to the field PSU would need to lose their next 17 semis when higher seeds and when lower seeds. Remarkable.”