ADVERTISEMENT

I enjoyed the Penn State era....Flo picks the bucks

Same group who last season had 7 Penn State wrestless ranked ahead of Okie State wrestlers, yet continued to rank Okie State ahead of the Lions.
Health stays even, and assuming NATO will be healthy, I like the Lions' chances.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ccdiver and Hotshoe
I ain't clickin' on that bait.

You're a smart man..Wow..I couldn't resist and clicked on link. Started reading until I saw every best case scenario for tOSU and worst case for PSU. Then I saw some kind of chart and clicked out and will never return to the scene of that crime.

What the heck is wrong with people..charts, over the top analysis, etc..

Keep it simple...we won by 40 points last year with all points returning except 2 or 3 which will be made up by Lee/Cortez/Keener combo. Good luck for 2nd.

Now I know how a fish feels. I saw the bait..knew it was bait and couldn't help myself and got hooked
 
Unfortunately Flo seems to run everything through a click analysis instead of just giving an honest opinion. Not that I get too bent out of shape over predictions but maintaining OSU over PSU last year was laughable.
 
Last edited:
Unfortunately Flo seems to run everything through a click analysis instead of just giving an honest opinion. Not that I get too bent out of shape over predictions but maintaining OSU over PSU last year was laughable as well.

We've won 6 of 7. How many of those 7 yrs did Flo give us pre season nod?

Last year was the biggest joke..if I'm not mistaken, I think Flo had PSU 7th preseason last year. It could have been another publication, can't remember.
 
  • Like
Reactions: matter7172
All sports media outlets--scratch that, all media outlets do this. Build the drama, etc. It has us clicking, and talking. I don't blame flo specifically. Plus, the outcome is a bit more in question this year than any of us thought it would be. We're one long bus ride away from a less than desirable outcome....
 
You're a smart man..Wow..I couldn't resist and clicked on link. Started reading until I saw every best case scenario for tOSU and worst case for PSU. Then I saw some kind of chart and clicked out and will never return to the scene of that crime.

What the heck is wrong with people..charts, over the top analysis, etc..

Keep it simple...we won by 40 points last year with all points returning except 2 or 3 which will be made up by Lee/Cortez/Keener combo. Good luck for 2nd.

Now I know how a fish feels. I saw the bait..knew it was bait and couldn't help myself and got hooked

that chart was very confusing. the intent was that they took every predicted finish they made above, assumed that was their seed going into the tournament, then used the distribution of finishes based on seed to predict team points. it's a prediction based on predictions. you can't say 'i think all of this is going to happen' then go 'if all of this happens, OSU wins 80% of the time'.
 
All sports media outlets--scratch that, all media outlets do this. Build the drama, etc. It has us clicking, and talking. I don't blame flo specifically. Plus, the outcome is a bit more in question this year than any of us thought it would be. We're one long bus ride away from a less than desirable outcome....

clicks factor in on this site too.
 
  • Like
Reactions: nerfstate
Ixnay on the icklay aitbay alktay.

Willie and CP will be here any minute talking about black helicopters and the like.

Please learn from my example.
 
Plus, the outcome is a bit more in question this year than any of us thought it would be. We're one long bus ride away from a less than desirable outcome....

Not in my mind. I think we win by more than people are predicting. Every offseason..some other teams pump themselves up on social media or become the "darling" team for the year. But then something happens..they actually have to wrestle.

People forget how dominating our guys are for whatever reason. And as time goes by we get worse and worse.

For example..after NCAA..PSU HUGE favorite for 2017-2018 (why? because we just mopped the floor with everyone and it's fresh in everyones mind). April 15th..now we only 10 point favorites..by July 15th..1 point favorte. By October 13..we underdogs!! Why what happened? Did our guys get worse? I could understand if Suriano got us 16-20 last year and we won by 10..this wasn't the case. Is McKenna going to score 41 points at NCAA?

Flo--I give you permission to use my statistical analysis if you'd like and see if you come up with something different. Here it is..we return about 140 points from last year and won by about 40. I don't need a chart for that
 
It was a good read and plausible in every way. I do disagree with some of the assertions.

ON PAPER. yes tOSU is stacked!! BUT there is one X-factor they are getting wrong in a major way IMHO

Nick Lee is legit title contender from the start and the Key to PSU repeating. Barring Injuries that affect NCAA Performance for both teams. We know what we will get out of our studs from 149-Hwt. I do agree with FLo that 125-141 is what may win the Championship for tOSU. I predict if Nick Lee is the Wrestler I think he is, he will be the difference maker. Unfortunately, IMHO, if PSU has to start Cortez at 141 and Keener at 133....I would be lying if I said I was not concerned the flo perspective may be right? I hope I am wrong because I want to believe in Cortez but I have my doubts at 141.
 
Not in my mind. I think we win by more than people are predicting. Every offseason..some other teams pump themselves up on social media or become the "darling" team for the year. But then something happens..they actually have to wrestle.

I totally get your point, have seen it myself. I think Lee, Hayes and McKenna are the major X-factors. I still think it's "closer" after transfer season than it was before. Injuries as always being a major wild card; if one of our top scorers goes down, or if Nato can't recover, the conversation changes pretty quickly. What I do know, is it's going to be f*n to watch, and the team that we send to NCAAs is going to be peaking at the right time.
 
clicks factor in on this site too.
I do not generally post something to poke at Willie, but....

Careful here, Willie will be coming on here to refute that. We all know Flo is above using their position as serious wrestling media to offer something simply to generate "clicks'.
 
I totally get your point, have seen it myself. I think Lee, Hayes and McKenna are the major X-factors. I still think it's "closer" after transfer season than it was before. Injuries as always being a major wild card; if one of our top scorers goes down, or if Nato can't recover, the conversation changes pretty quickly. What I do know, is it's going to be f*n to watch, and the team that we send to NCAAs is going to be peaking at the right time.

Of course injuries are a major factor. I'm not predicting people to be hurt. If I was, PSU would be a 60 point favorite if you consider Jordan is always hurt and Nato is out till January with a lower leg injury
 
I think there are certainly scenarios where Penn State could lose to Ohio State. Almost all of those scenarios involve Bo Jordan beating Mark Hall and Myles Martin beating Bo Nickal. Of course, injuries can change a lot, but I think it's a waste of time trying to predict injuries.
 
  • Like
Reactions: diggerpup
Not in my mind. I think we win by more than people are predicting. Every offseason..some other teams pump themselves up on social media or become the "darling" team for the year. But then something happens..they actually have to wrestle.

People forget how dominating our guys are for whatever reason. And as time goes by we get worse and worse.

For example..after NCAA..PSU HUGE favorite for 2017-2018 (why? because we just mopped the floor with everyone and it's fresh in everyones mind). April 15th..now we only 10 point favorites..by July 15th..1 point favorte. By October 13..we underdogs!! Why what happened? Did our guys get worse? I could understand if Suriano got us 16-20 last year and we won by 10..this wasn't the case. Is McKenna going to score 41 points at NCAA?

Flo--I give you permission to use my statistical analysis if you'd like and see if you come up with something different. Here it is..we return about 140 points from last year and won by about 40. I don't need a chart for that
I agree with you, but PSU had a perfect tourney....and you underestimate our opponent. tOSU is a much better team on paper this year...if you don't think Hayes, Mckenna, Pletcher at 133 with a year of experience in the meatgrinder, Mouse at 125, Who is gonna beat Moore this year? I am all for being excited about what PSU is bringing back but acknowledging the Flo perspective as legitimate does not put down PSU. I actually think it is important for PSU to acknowledge the possibility so they can come up with strategies to make sure it does not go down like that....For example pulling Hall redshirt last season.
 
We will find out soon. I think they only thing I would bet on is that the second place team at this years NCAA tournament will have the highest point total ever for a runner up. This is a 2-horse race unless major injuries derail the season for one/both teams and they come back to the field.

Let's enjoy the ride.
 
I agree with you, but PSU had a perfect tourney....and you underestimate our opponent. tOSU is a much better team on paper this year...if you don't think Hayes, Mckenna, Pletcher at 133 with a year of experience in the meatgrinder, Mouse at 125, Who is gonna beat Moore this year? I am all for being excited about what PSU is bringing back but acknowledging the Flo perspective as legitimate does not put down PSU. I actually think it is important for PSU to acknowledge the possibility so they can come up with strategies to make sure it does not go down like that....For example pulling Hall redshirt last season.
Well, yeah if a perfect tourney includes having the #2 ranked wrestler at 125 not compete, having a DNQ at 133, and having our 141 and 197 not reach the podium.
 
I don't know if it is click bait. Flo provides a great service and I value their opinion. But...it is just that, an opinion just like everyone on this board. OSU looks great on paper. PSU wrestlers are not unblemished - meaning they have lost before and in this sport, it's pretty easy not to have a perfect day. Upsets happen all the time. Additionally, we have 3 unknown holes to fill.
I like sitting back and letting the cards play out and enjoy the entertainment of reading others opinions. I just warn some of making assumptions such as duplicating last years results. Pretty tough to do. Far from a guarantee but wouldn't it be great!
 
I agree with you, but PSU had a perfect tourney....and you underestimate our opponent. tOSU is a much better team on paper this year

PSU did have a nearly perfect tournament last year, but let's not act like this kind of tournament was actually really far off from their expected performance.

141 - Gulibon - R12 - I think if you polled PSU fans after the regular season, they'd all pretty much agree this was a reasonable outcome.
149 - Zain - 1st - yup
157 - Nolf - 1st - yup
165 - Joseph - 1st - This is PSU's biggest upset, is Joseph going from the 3-seed to 1st place. Even still, what is his actual floor? 4th? I can't really see a scenario he drops further than that unless injured. So we're talking about a difference of what...5 or 6 points?
174 - Hall - 1st - I don't think Mark Hall beating Bo Jordan and Zahid Valencia is a surprise to anyone who saw him grow from season's beginning to end.
184 - Nickal - 1st - I don't think Nickal beating Dean is a significant upset, it's a close one.
197 - McCutcheon - R12 - I think this is close to expectation.
285 - Nevills - 5th - He was the 5-seed and ended 5th. I don't see this as over-performance.

So while PSU did perform nearly perfectly, there is room to grow. Nevills can end 3rd this year, Mouse can AA, Lee may be able to AA and we may get team points from 133 this year (not expecting much from 125 tbh, but I hope Schnupp surprises me).

Then we go into the 5 champions, I think easily Joseph is the "most vulnerable" but he's also a RS sophomore and I don't see him ending much worse than 3rd/4th. Hall is a monster, and I'm confident he can beat Bo Jordan again. Nickal has weird matches with Myles Martin, but there's no reason to think Bo can't beat him (he's 4-2 lifetime) and Zahid is great too. I'm not sure he can end much worse than 2nd. Anyone other than Zain and Nolf winning would shock me.

While I agree that Ohio State is a stronger test than Oklahoma State last year, PSU could possibly have 6 guys in the top 3 next year, with at least 2 champions and probably more. That's just such a hard place to overtake someone and Lee may be the real deal too. We'll see, I think PSU is a favorite but if a result or two goes OSU's way it could flip the race.
 
Ive posted it before and probably will again....SLee at 125 and PDIII at 184 could factor bigly in the team race. knocking Nato and MyMar into the consis would be huge.
 
  • Like
Reactions: kevin310
PSU did have a nearly perfect tournament last year, but let's not act like this kind of tournament was actually really far off from their expected performance.

141 - Gulibon - R12 - I think if you polled PSU fans after the regular season, they'd all pretty much agree this was a reasonable outcome.
149 - Zain - 1st - yup
157 - Nolf - 1st - yup
165 - Joseph - 1st - This is PSU's biggest upset, is Joseph going from the 3-seed to 1st place. Even still, what is his actual floor? 4th? I can't really see a scenario he drops further than that unless injured. So we're talking about a difference of what...5 or 6 points?
174 - Hall - 1st - I don't think Mark Hall beating Bo Jordan and Zahid Valencia is a surprise to anyone who saw him grow from season's beginning to end.
184 - Nickal - 1st - I don't think Nickal beating Dean is a significant upset, it's a close one.
197 - McCutcheon - R12 - I think this is close to expectation.
285 - Nevills - 5th - He was the 5-seed and ended 5th. I don't see this as over-performance.

So while PSU did perform nearly perfectly, there is room to grow. Nevills can end 3rd this year, Mouse can AA, Lee may be able to AA and we may get team points from 133 this year (not expecting much from 125 tbh, but I hope Schnupp surprises me).

Then we go into the 5 champions, I think easily Joseph is the "most vulnerable" but he's also a RS sophomore and I don't see him ending much worse than 3rd/4th. Hall is a monster, and I'm confident he can beat Bo Jordan again. Nickal has weird matches with Myles Martin, but there's no reason to think Bo can't beat him (he's 4-2 lifetime) and Zahid is great too. I'm not sure he can end much worse than 2nd. Anyone other than Zain and Nolf winning would shock me.

While I agree that Ohio State is a stronger test than Oklahoma State last year, PSU could possibly have 6 guys in the top 3 next year, with at least 2 champions and probably more. That's just such a hard place to overtake someone and Lee may be the real deal too. We'll see, I think PSU is a favorite but if a result or two goes OSU's way it could flip the race.
a perfect storm would be Hall, Joseph and Nickal all losing in semis (which would be -22.5 or more from their scores last year) - could happen, but all 3?
 
Ive posted it before and probably will again....SLee at 125 and PDIII at 184 could factor bigly in the team race. knocking Nato and MyMar into the consis would be huge.
Somebody's gotta take out Moore. If Renda is going 184 as listed in Flo's NC State preview, I think I'd rather have PD3 at 197.

Not sure if I'd still feel this way if we swerve and go Mouse 184, Bo 197 ... haven't had to think that thru yet.
 
I agree with you, but PSU had a perfect tourney....and you underestimate our opponent. tOSU is a much better team on paper this year....

I do NOT underestimate our opponent. tOSU is a phenominal team at the wrong time.

Basically in every scenario I've seen where tOSU is predicted ahead of us it's always the same. Our guys get worse and others get better and I don't buy that.

Out of our 5 champs, I see 4 of them as favorites so NO I don't see them going down. Joseph will be 1-3. So you have 100+ points from 4 champs and let's say 16 for Joseph. You are now at 120 points or so with nothing from Nevills, Lee, Cutch, Cortez/Keener (whoever mans 133). I don't see tOSU beating that unless you want to predict Snyder, NAto, Jordan and Moore all win NC's which I don't believe. Even if they all did..those 4 aren't scoring more than 100 points (factoring bonus).

So yes..anyone can predict the perfect storm for tOSU..the difference is..we are proven..they aren't. So why would they get the edge?
 
PSU 165 & 174 may drop a few points from the 2017 NCAAs ... but PSU has higher ceilings at 133, 141, 197 and possibly HWT in 2018 compared to 2017.

PSU is a lock for 130+ in 2018, barring injury.

Good luck with that.
 
PSU 165 & 174 may drop a few points from the 2017 NCAAs ... but PSU has higher ceilings at 133, 141, 197 and possibly HWT in 2018 compared to 2017.

PSU is a lock for 130+ in 2018, barring injury.

Good luck with that.
PSU will gain points at 174
Mark left bonus pints on the table in all his wins he will pick some of those up on the way to his second NC or Cael
Isn't Cael and Mark isn't Mark.
 
PSU will gain points at 174
Mark left bonus pints on the table in all his wins he will pick some of those up on the way to his second NC or Cael
Isn't Cael and Mark isn't Mark.
You are probably correct, but if Zahid goes 174, there are at least 2 wrestlers that could bump Hall to 2nd/3rd.
 
Sure stirred interest, and that is always good for any product. The AIDA cycle. Actions still do speed louder than......
 
  • Like
Reactions: nerfstate
I predict if Nick Lee is the Wrestler I think he is, he will be the difference maker. Unfortunately, IMHO, if PSU has to start Cortez at 141 and Keener at 133....I would be lying if I said I was not concerned the flo perspective may be right? I hope I am wrong because I want to believe in Cortez but I have my doubts at 141.

My only question, if PSU does start Cortez and Keener wouldnt that mean they won the wrestle off with Lee, so as good or better? I am not predicting that, I just trust Cael will put the best on the mat.
 
I agree with you, but PSU had a perfect tourney....and you underestimate our opponent. tOSU is a much better team on paper this year...if you don't think Hayes, Mckenna, Pletcher at 133 with a year of experience in the meatgrinder, Mouse at 125, Who is gonna beat Moore this year? I am all for being excited about what PSU is bringing back but acknowledging the Flo perspective as legitimate does not put down PSU. I actually think it is important for PSU to acknowledge the possibility so they can come up with strategies to make sure it does not go down like that....For example pulling Hall redshirt last season.

tOSU does have an extremely strong team that is fully capable of wining it. It just seems that PSU doesn't get the benefit of the doubt much for a team that consistatly peaks at nationals. Throw that on top of keeping OSU ahead last year despite FLO's own individual rankings saying otherwise and you can see how we start to question their reasoning.
 
My only question, if PSU does start Cortez and Keener wouldnt that mean they won the wrestle off with Lee, so as good or better? I am not predicting that, I just trust Cael will put the best on the mat.
Not necessarily. Hall was our best 174 last year but didn't start until he was truly needed.

Unless Lee is clearly superior AND he's needed from the start -- think Nico and Zain -- no need to make that decision before the Scuffle.
 
  • Like
Reactions: diggerpup
At this time of year, nothing wrong with the analysis. My hopes are bigger-picture, that all the wrestlers stay healthy (or get healthy), then the championship gets settled in Cleveland.

Will add this...repeated from another thread...we (PSU) have earned nary-a-point for Cleveland, based on past performance. PSU guys will hit the room, practice hard, improve, and wrestler their best when the lights are brightest. That's all we can ask for. I like our chances.
 
El-Jeffe, I understand your point, I should have been clearer, I meant start for the tourneys, when the points count. Cael would pull the trigger if needed, al a Hall.
 
I agree with you, but PSU had a perfect tourney....and you underestimate our opponent. tOSU is a much better team on paper this year...if you don't think Hayes, Mckenna, Pletcher at 133 with a year of experience in the meatgrinder, Mouse at 125, Who is gonna beat Moore this year? I am all for being excited about what PSU is bringing back but acknowledging the Flo perspective as legitimate does not put down PSU. I actually think it is important for PSU to acknowledge the possibility so they can come up with strategies to make sure it does not go down like that....For example pulling Hall redshirt last season.

I would disagree that we had a "perfect" tourney. It sure felt that way with 5 champs but those champs were seeded 1,1,3,5,2 and we had a 5 seed not place. Using just placement and advancement points we outscored our expected points by 12.5 in 2017. Even though IMHO it is unlikely we have 5 champs again I still think we score more points in 2018 than we did in 2017. More bonus points from Cenzo, Hall, Bo, and Nevills. Nevills places higher and if Cutch stays healthy I expect him to place in the top 5. In 2017 Gulibon scored 4.5 points. I expect we will score at least that in 2018 between 133 and 141 and potentially a lot more. All that said if everyone on tOSU and PSU stays healthy I expect a battle right up to Saturday at NCAAs, and probably Saturday night. Personally I can't wait for BIGs and NCAAs.
 
Looking forward to the tourneys, but right now, to steal a page from Coach Franklin, it is ARMY, ARMY, ARMY!
 
ADVERTISEMENT