Global Domination - Lineup Projections out to 2022-23

[Sean Harp]

A warning from the Surgeon General: If you are a fan of any D1 wrestling program not named Penn State, the link below may cause nausea, depression, fits of rage, or general hopelessness.

One whole can

 

[BruceK-PSU83]

Interesting exercise, but IMO way too many moving parts to try to project that far out.

Some more specific comments:

• Believe Cortez will be at 141 from here on out. Hence the rumors about Keener possibly transferring to PSU, to fill in at 133. Also means that Nick Lee will likely redshirt his first year.
• Since Cortez will be at 141, Teasdale or RBY wrestles as a true frosh at 133.
• Don't see Cortez, Nick Lee, and Verk all in the lineup at the same time, as it's likely three guys battling for two spots (141 and 149).
• Speaking of Nick Lee, he is oddly missing in 2019-20.
• You have Manville (already a gray shirt) taking a standard red shirt followed by an Olympic redshirt. That's three consecutive "shirt" years before ever competing for PSU. Possible, but hard to imagine, and would probably be some sort of record.
• Three other guys (Berge, Wittlake, Joe Lee) taking a gray shirt followed by a redshirt. Seems pretty darn unlikely, especially since none has been rumored to defer enrollment at PSU.
• Prior to landing Verk, I figured Berge would replace Retherford at 149 and then move up to 157 the following year to replace Nolf. Still think that is the most likely scenario, except now Berge and Verk fight it out to replace Retherford in 2018-19.
• Can't ever see Hall at 184. More likely that Wittlake slides into 184 as a RS freshman (no gray shirt).
• Don't see Busiello until 2022-23. Where is he stashed away for 3 years?

These various comments/questions tend to reinforce my opinion that this is a fruitless exercise. Plus, chances are that a couple guys transfer out. Good message board stuff though.

 

[Sean Harp]

These various comments/questions tend to reinforce my opinion that this is a fruitless exercise. Plus, chances are that a couple guys transfer out. Good message board stuff though.[/QUOTE]

Oh yeah. Definitely fruitless yet enjoyable fodder to get through leg-lace season. Thanks for your comments. Feel free to download the spreadsheet and tweak it however you see fit. It's there for all.

• Has anyone heard any updates regarding Keener recently?
• I believe Verkleeren is Zain's likely successor. Having a hard time picturing Berge at 149 despite his spoken desire.

 

[SetonHallPirate]

Time to find a new sport to follow, if I'm rooting for parity, right?

Don't worry, I'm not leaving wrestling, but that spreadsheet is downright scary.

 

[Sean Harp]

The spreadsheet is now open to editing. Good luck fitting ten pounds into a five pound bag. Link: EDIT

 

[PSUAllTheWay]

One paper our future lineups look really exciting. Now the coaches and athletes need to focus on improving to realize this potential. Can't wait to watch!

 

[T J]

Time to find a new sport to follow, if I'm rooting for parity, right?

Don't worry, I'm not leaving wrestling, but that spreadsheet is downright scary.

Open questions also remain, regarding the high school wrestlers who are ranked #1 or #2 at their weights and those who are in the Top Ten P4P in the coming years' recruiting classes.

This looks like a very strong lineup for PSU for years. It helps PSU deliver a strong contender at all ten weights. However, other teams may have access to some very good nationally ranked wrestling talent in some of the spreadsheet's years, because of lower opportunities at PSU.

So while PSU may be stacked, there may well be some other teams that can also load up with some very impressive lineups of talent.

That is likely at other contending schools. If they also get pretty loaded, then future battles on the national scene may be about how much and how quickly the sport changes toward more bonus point scoring.

The potential for much more exciting college wrestling matches may be unfolding, based upon how Cael is changing the sport.

Developing...

 

[jtothemfp]

• I believe Verkleeren is Zain's likely successor. Having a hard time picturing Berge at 149 despite his spoken desire.

Ha, was just about to type this very thing.

 

[tabenn]

I do not ever see Hall at 184--he just dosnt have the frame for it--if anything Hall and Cenzo switch weight--Hall to 165 Cenzo to 174---IMO.. and I dont know if cenzo is big enough for 174...

on another note...what a great problem to have with all this talent!!

 

[Lion-around]

I do not ever see Hall at 184--he just dosnt have the frame for it--if anything Hall and Cenzo switch weight--Hall to 165 Cenzo to 174---IMO.. and I dont know if cenzo is big enough for 174...

on another note...what a great problem to have with all this talent!!

Surprised that Rasheed seems to be MIA in all future projections. Since we have yet to see Cassar wrestle in a PSU singlet, and his recovery from a serious injury is unknown, I don't think it is beyond the realm of possibilities that Shakur follows McCutcheon at 197 in 18/19. We definitely know Rasheed was too big for 165; his large body frame looked more comfortable for 174 or 184. I don't think him making 197 by the 18/19 season is a stretch.

 

[katsujinken]

A warning from the Surgeon General: If you are a fan of any D1 wrestling program not named Penn State, the link below may cause nausea, depression, fits of rage, or general hopelessness.

One whole can

I added up all of the weight classes and came up with 1710 pounds of Whup Ass...

 

[jack66]

Open questions also remain, regarding the high school wrestlers who are ranked #1 or #2 at their weights and those who are in the Top Ten P4P in the coming years' recruiting classes.

This looks like a very strong lineup for PSU for years. It helps PSU deliver a strong contender at all ten weights. However, other teams may have access to some very good nationally ranked wrestling talent in some of the spreadsheet's years, because of lower opportunities at PSU.

So while PSU may be stacked, there may well be some other teams that can also load up with some very impressive lineups of talent.

That is likely at other contending schools. If they also get pretty loaded, then future battles on the national scene may be about how much and how quickly the sport changes toward more bonus point scoring.

The potential for much more exciting college wrestling matches may be unfolding, based upon how Cael is changing the sport.

Developing...

This is true, there will be good wrestlers available for other schools to scoop up. The question is if one team can corner the remaining market enough to mount a serious challenge, year in and year out.

What makes those future line-ups so impressive is that every year boasts at least 8 or 9 top-10 P4P wrestlers.

The gauntlet has been thrown and every coach knows it. It's possible a few other teams can step-up to the challenge, I guess we'll see.

 

[tabenn]

Surprised that Rasheed seems to be MIA in all future projections. Since we have yet to see Cassar wrestle in a PSU singlet, and his recovery from a serious injury is unknown, I don't think it is beyond the realm of possibilities that Shakur follows McCutcheon at 197 in 18/19. We definitely know Rasheed was too big for 165; his large body frame looked more comfortable for 174 or 184. I don't think him making 197 by the 18/19 season is a stretch.

I thought the same about Rasheed....if bo did not make the move up this year-I would have thought Resheed would move to 184---I wonder who wins the battle in the room mouse vs Rasheed..

 

[davidtaylorgangordie]

Mouse does

 

[Real-Lion]

Surprised that Rasheed seems to be MIA in all future projections. Since we have yet to see Cassar wrestle in a PSU singlet, and his recovery from a serious injury is unknown, I don't think it is beyond the realm of possibilities that Shakur follows McCutcheon at 197 in 18/19. We definitely know Rasheed was too big for 165; his large body frame looked more comfortable for 174 or 184. I don't think him making 197 by the 18/19 season is a stretch.

Cassar has been wrestling live since January.

 

[liex26]

I believe PSU is at 31 straight Dual wins, no idea what the NCAA record is but I'm sure it's up there. Wonder if they could squeeze onto this list eventually.

http://www.deseretnews.com/top/1400/0/Longest-winning-streaks-of-all-time.html

The two wrestling entries are 159 and 459 ....

 

[jtothemfp]

I believe PSU is at 31 straight Dual wins, no idea what the NCAA record is but I'm sure it's up there. Wonder if they could squeeze onto this list eventually.

http://www.deseretnews.com/top/1400/0/Longest-winning-streaks-of-all-time.html

The two wrestling entries are 159 and 459 ....

I asked Ross about this in Feb:

 

[liex26]

Wow, 84 straight wins. Very impressive, but not insurmountable.

Goals.

 

[matter7172]

Wow, 84 straight wins. Very impressive, but not insurmountable.

Goals.

69 straight wins; 84 unbeaten. OSU has the win streak record at 76. Very possible both streaks are reachable within, what, less than 4 years.

 

[T J]

69 straight wins; 84 unbeaten. OSU has the win streak record at 76. Very possible both streaks are reachable within, what, less than 4 years.

Seems like teams use to wrestle more duals per year than they do today. We had 14 duals last season, iirc.

Wonder how many years it took for IA and OkSt to get their record wins.

 

[Dogwelder]

Wow, 84 straight wins. Very impressive, but not insurmountable.

Goals.

Hi Spyker, if you're reading, are you willing to be so bold as to say that the PSU wrestling team will NEVER LOSE A DUAL MEET AGAIN?

 

[chalkstream1]

There are kids out there that could hit puberty and bump McHenry and Busiello

 

[Ja1339]

69 straight wins; 84 unbeaten. OSU has the win streak record at 76. Very possible both streaks are reachable within, what, less than 4 years.

Regardless of the length of our streak, Intermat will still be ranking the Pokes #1 in season over PSU

 

[Sullivan]

Wow, 84 straight wins. Very impressive, but not insurmountable.

Goals.

Given that we participate in the Big 10 and are now a part of the NWCA National Dual Championships, we are almost guaranteed to wrestle several of the top teams in the country. Although it isn't insurmountable, it is more difficult than in the past.

 

[Gray52]

• Has anyone heard any updates regarding Keener recently?

 

[Cowbell Man]

Some more specific

• You have Manville (already a gray shirt) taking a standard red shirt followed by an Olympic redshirt. That's three consecutive "shirt" years before ever competing for PSU. Possible, but hard to imagine, and would probably be some sort of record..

Ties Matt Brown. And can't remember if Kade had three.

 

[Sean Harp]

Interesting exercise, but IMO way too many moving parts to try to project that far out.

Some more specific comments:

• Believe Cortez will be at 141 from here on out. Hence the rumors about Keener possibly transferring to PSU, to fill in at 133. Also means that Nick Lee will likely redshirt his first year.
• Since Cortez will be at 141, Teasdale or RBY wrestles as a true frosh at 133.
• Don't see Cortez, Nick Lee, and Verk all in the lineup at the same time, as it's likely three guys battling for two spots (141 and 149).
• Speaking of Nick Lee, he is oddly missing in 2019-20.
• You have Manville (already a gray shirt) taking a standard red shirt followed by an Olympic redshirt. That's three consecutive "shirt" years before ever competing for PSU. Possible, but hard to imagine, and would probably be some sort of record.
• Three other guys (Berge, Wittlake, Joe Lee) taking a gray shirt followed by a redshirt. Seems pretty darn unlikely, especially since none has been rumored to defer enrollment at PSU.
• Prior to landing Verk, I figured Berge would replace Retherford at 149 and then move up to 157 the following year to replace Nolf. Still think that is the most likely scenario, except now Berge and Verk fight it out to replace Retherford in 2018-19.
• Can't ever see Hall at 184. More likely that Wittlake slides into 184 as a RS freshman (no gray shirt).
• Don't see Busiello until 2022-23. Where is he stashed away for 3 years?

These various comments/questions tend to reinforce my opinion that this is a fruitless exercise. Plus, chances are that a couple guys transfer out. Good message board stuff though.

BruceK made some great points here, most of which can be addressed by stepping back and asking:

What did the staff's plan look like before Verk fell in our lap and the Keener rumor began?

This makes more sense: Whup Ass Revisited

 

[Roar More]

BruceK made some great points here, most of which can be addressed by stepping back and asking:

What did the staff's plan look like before Verk fell in our lap and the Keener rumor began?

This makes more sense: Whup Ass Revisited

Joseph will never see 157, especially as a senior.

 

[Sean Harp]

Joseph will never see 157, especially as a senior.

Never, eh? Well, Joseph is not that big for 165, maybe even on the smallish side. I highly doubt that his red-shirt struggles making 157 were akin to Rasheed at 165 (simply too big for the weight) and more of a weight management issue. Unless he has a significant growth spurt, Joseph can make 157.

 

[Pennstate1985]

Never, eh? Well, Joseph is not that big for 165, maybe even on the smallish side. I highly doubt that his red-shirt struggles making 157 were akin to Rasheed at 165 (simply too big for the weight) and more of a weight management issue. Unless he has a significant growth spurt, Joseph can make 157.

no. Give it up already. Cenzo and 157 are the same as Pennstate1985 and 157. I last saw that weight about 35 years ago.

 

[tomsc]

BruceK made some great points here, most of which can be addressed by stepping back and asking:

What did the staff's plan look like before Verk fell in our lap and the Keener rumor began?

This makes more sense: Whup Ass Revisited

A couple of things on your projected future line-ups: You have Manville on a 6-year plan (out the 18-19 season). Also, I believe Busiello would come in 19-20 (unless he grayshirts).

 

[Sean Harp]

A couple of things on your projected future line-ups: You have Manville on a 6-year plan (out the 18-19 season). Also, I believe Busiello would come in 19-20 (unless he grayshirts).

Scroll down below the red shirts Tom. That will show the gray shirt and Olympic red shirt section. Manville was gray last season, and I gave him a RS and ORS.

I gave Busiello a GS, RS, and riding the bench one year. Tim Foley makes a compelling argument that wrestlers may be willing to forgo a year or two as a starter to increase their odds of winning a national championship later in their career.

Not quite certain how Verkleeren fits in the grand scheme. Also don't think we've heard the last of Shakur Rasheed, especially if Nickal decides to go 197 at some point.

 

[tomsc]

Scroll down below the red shirts Tom. That will show the gray shirt and Olympic red shirt section. Manville was gray last season, and I gave him a RS and ORS.

I gave Busiello a GS, RS, and riding the bench one year. Tim Foley makes a compelling argument that wrestlers may be willing to forgo a year or two as a starter to increase their odds of winning a national championship later in their career.

Not quite certain how Verkleeren fits in the grand scheme. Also don't think we've heard the last of Shakur Rasheed, especially if Nickal decides to go 197 at some point.

Didn't see the scroll down GS, Oly shirts. But ,you have Manville for Olympic RS in 18-19. I'm pretty sure that an olympic RS has to be in the year leading up to the Olympics--so Manville couldn't shirt in 18-19. He could in 19-20 (and might very well). And, if Manville does shirt in 19-20, there is no need in your lineup to have Joseph pull down to 157 that year (leaving alone the question whether he can or not).

 

[Sean Harp]

Ha, was just about to type this very thing.

I'm backtracking: Not feeling too certain about this one anymore and here's why: One could reasonably assume that there was a succession plan in place for Zain before the arrival of Verkleeren.

In fact, all the pieces fall into place once your remove Verk and rumored transfers. Berge is indeed the initial successor, later moving up to 157 to be backfilled by Nick Lee.

Additionally, I have watched some of Berge's more recent matches on FLO. The first place to look for weight that can be cut is the inner thigh. Berge is definitely carrying some excess there, as did Jimmy at 141, Cenzo at 165, and Mouse at 197.

Long story short: I can now envision Berge at 149... for whatever the hell that's worth.

 

[Sean Harp]

Didn't see the scroll down GS, Oly shirts. But ,you have Manville for Olympic RS in 18-19. I'm pretty sure that an olympic RS has to be in the year leading up to the Olympics--so Manville couldn't shirt in 18-19. He could in 19-20 (and might very well). And, if Manville does shirt in 19-20, there is no need in your lineup to have Joseph pull down to 157 that year (leaving alone the question whether he can or not).

Now THAT is useful information. Thank you. Back to ze drawing board.

 

[Cali_Nittany]

Never, eh? Well, Joseph is not that big for 165, maybe even on the smallish side. I highly doubt that his red-shirt struggles making 157 were akin to Rasheed at 165 (simply too big for the weight) and more of a weight management issue. Unless he has a significant growth spurt, Joseph can make 157.

It's hard to tell but I would think that Joseph making 157 is much more plausible than switching weights with Hall as some have suggested. Anyway, thanks for posting, I love playing around with spreadsheets. Endless possibilities with all that talent in the room.

Btw, that was quite a cranky response to PennState1985 so here you go:

 

[Pennstate1985]

(Sigh) Civility and logic aren't getting me anywhere here. Okay...

Don't you have to try them first before dispensing with them?

 

[Sean Harp]

Don't you have to try them first before dispensing with them?

Baloney. I am a nice guy, both here and in life. "Cheers, mate." "Enjoy!". "Good point, posterXYZ", "Thanks for the info, poste123", and all that.

When making a point, I attempt to explain my rationale. When I'm wrong, I own it. Self-deprecation and good manners play well in the real world and are generally reciprocated in kind.

Not so in an anonymous virtual space. Those same traits are often mistaken for weakness. I have eaten many a jab and walked away. No mas.

This was a jab and you know it: "no. Give it up already." The fact that you're shocked that I punch back does not give you the moral high ground.

Cheers.

Sean

PS If you care to start over with a logical rebuttal regarding Joseph and 157, I'm your Huckleberry.

 

[Sean Harp]

It's hard to tell but I would think that Joseph making 157 is much more plausible than switching weights with Hall as some have suggested. Anyway, thanks for posting, I love playing around with spreadsheets. Endless possibilities with all that talent in the room.

Btw, that was quite a cranky response to PennState1985 so here you go:

Glad that you enjoy the sheet Cali, and yes...

"That was a bit off sides, wasn't it?"

 

[Cali_Nittany]

Glad that enjoy the sheet Cali, and yes...

"That was a bit off sides, wasn't it?"