First crack at Big Ten Seeds

Fink

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Gold Member
Jul 30, 2001
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Seeding is going to be crazy hard because of so few matches. Below is my guesstimate based primarily on accomplishments this year (weighted to who you beat).

125:
1. Lee
2. Cronin
3. Mckee
4. Heinselman
5. Foley
6. Schroder
7. DeAugustino
8.Ragusin Or Barnett
Howard 10 (if Medley in field) or 11

133:
1. RBY
2. Micic not sure what to do with him but probably should make him go through both RBY and DeSanto)
3. Desanto
4. Alvarez
5. Cannon
6. Byrd
7. Decatur
8. Dryden

141:
1. Eierman
2. Lee
3. Rivera
4. Red Jr
5. Duncan
6. D'Emilio
7. Mattin
8. Polanco

149:
1. Sasso
2. Murin
3. Carr
4. Storr
5. Parriott
6. Blockhus
7. Thomas
8. Lovett

Bartlett 10 (no wins yet over anyone in the field)


157:
1. Deakin
2. Young
3. Berge (could flip with Lee)
4. Lee
5 Coleman
6. Lewan
7. Saldate
8. Model

165:
1. Marinelli
2. Braunagel
3. Smith
4. Sparks
5. Amine
6. Robb
7. J.Lee
8. South

174:
1. Kemerer
2. Labriola
3. Starocci
4. Massa
5. Romero
6. Washington
7. Allar
8. Turley

184:
1. Brooks
2. Weiler
3. Venz
4. Malczewski
5. Webster
6. Braunagel
7. Lyon
8. Brands

197:
1. Schultz
2. Amine
3. Warner
4. Caffey
5. Beard (could flip with Davison)
6. Davison
7. Penola
8. Wroblewski

HWT:
1. Steveson
2. Parris
3. Cassioppi
4. Luffman
5. Lance
6. Hilger
7. S.Nevills (could flip with Hillger)
8. Orndorff
 

Hawkeye4lifee

Well-Known Member
Jan 10, 2019
55
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Seeding is going to be crazy hard because of so few matches. Below is my guesstimate based primarily on accomplishments this year (weighted to who you beat).

125:
1. Lee
2. Cronin
3. Mckee
4. Heinselman
5. Foley
6. Schroder
7. DeAugustino
8.Ragusin Or Barnett
Howard 10 (if Medley in field) or 11

133:
1. RBY
2. Micic not sure what to do with him but probably should make him go through both RBY and DeSanto)
3. Desanto
4. Alvarez
5. Cannon
6. Byrd
7. Decatur
8. Dryden

141:
1. Eierman
2. Lee
3. Rivera
4. Red Jr
5. Duncan
6. D'Emilio
7. Mattin
8. Polanco

149:
1. Sasso
2. Murin
3. Carr
4. Storr
5. Parriott
6. Blockhus
7. Thomas
8. Lovett

Bartlett 10 (no wins yet over anyone in the field)


157:
1. Deakin
2. Young
3. Berge (could flip with Lee)
4. Lee
5 Coleman
6. Lewan
7. Saldate
8. Model

165:
1. Marinelli
2. Braunagel
3. Smith
4. Sparks
5. Amine
6. Robb
7. J.Lee
8. South

174:
1. Kemerer
2. Labriola
3. Starocci
4. Massa
5. Romero
6. Washington
7. Allar
8. Turley

184:
1. Brooks
2. Weiler
3. Venz
4. Malczewski
5. Webster
6. Braunagel
7. Lyon
8. Brands

197:
1. Schultz
2. Amine
3. Warner
4. Caffey
5. Beard (could flip with Davison)
6. Davison
7. Penola
8. Wroblewski

HWT:
1. Steveson
2. Parris
3. Cassioppi
4. Luffman
5. Lance
6. Hilger
7. S.Nevills (could flip with Hillger)
8. Orndorff
I agree with alot of this but Bartlett is going to get the 14 because he has no wins and one loss in the field and berge will max at 5
 

Fink

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Jul 30, 2001
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139
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My rank assumed Bartlett beats Baxter. He would be 2-1 at 149 and 6-1 overall. Rooks would be 2-1 also with wins over Baxter and Verk and loss to Thomas. Could rank them either way. Scharenbrock is 2-5 lost to Gardner. If hardy isn't guy for Nebraska, he has no wins over anyone in the field. So Maybe 11.

Berge is undefeated and beat Lewan. Lee 7-2, best win Coleman losses to Deakin and Young. Coleman 7-1 best win Saldate, lost to Lee.
 

Hawkeye4lifee

Well-Known Member
Jan 10, 2019
55
23
1
Why would Berge max at 5?

And presumably Bartlett will get a win over Hunter Baxter tomorrow. Won’t 2-1 at 149 with a h2h win get him seeded over Baxter? Baxter will be 1-7.
My bad, I forgot there was a dual Monday. So bartlett at 13, will definitely place higher. However berge at 5 because Coleman and Lee have better resumes from the prior season going into this tourney, which is a factor
 

El-Jefe

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Jul 27, 2012
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Why would Berge max at 5?

And presumably Bartlett will get a win over Hunter Baxter tomorrow. Won’t 2-1 at 149 with a h2h win get him seeded over Baxter? Baxter will be 1-7.
The problem is that nobody knows how the seeds will be conducted.

If we go by the 2/11 coaches rankings with current records:
4 Young 3-0
5 Lee 7-2
6 Coleman 7-1
7 Lewan 5-1
9 Berge 5-0
22 Saldate 4-3
23 Model 3-4
27 Kanniard 1-3
28 Cleary 4-6

But that doesn't include:
- Deakin (did not have enough matches to be ranked)
- Berge beating Lewan
- Deakin 12-0 over Lee

Deakin has to be the 1, and Berge has to pass Lewan. So 5 might be about where Berge gets seeded.
 
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lockhavenlion3

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Nov 21, 2014
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The problem is that nobody knows how the seeds will be conducted.

If we go by the 2/11 coaches rankings with current records:
4 Young 3-0
5 Lee 7-2
6 Coleman 7-1
7 Lewan 5-1
9 Berge 5-0
22 Saldate 4-3
23 Model 3-4
27 Kanniard 1-3
28 Cleary 4-6

But that doesn't include:
- Deakin (did not have enough matches to be ranked)
- Berge beating Lewan
- Deakin 12-0 over Lee

Deakin has to be the 1, and Berge has to pass Lewan. So 5 might be about where Berge gets seeded.
while understand all the by play on seeds, etc but, f*%& all of that. just beat the guy in front of you each match and everything else will take care of itself.
 

apoharrow

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May 15, 2006
88
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while understand all the by play on seeds, etc but, f*%& all of that. just beat the guy in front of you each match and everything else will take care of itself.
You do know of any person or team ever to turn down a higher seed? Must mean something then. The ultimate competitors like MJ and Cael never said nah I want the last seed.
 
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lockhavenlion3

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You do know of any person or team ever to turn down a higher seed? Must mean something then. The ultimate competitors like MJ and Cael never said nah I want the last seed.
that's the point. doesn't matter what seed you get, or what seed anyone else gets. if you believe in yourself, you'll beat whoever's in front of you.
 

El-Jefe

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Jul 27, 2012
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that's the point. doesn't matter what seed you get, or what seed anyone else gets. if you believe in yourself, you'll beat whoever's in front of you.
There are limits to that. Positive infinity belief in self wasn't putting Micah Jordan over Zain or Jason.

But point taken. The guys can't control their seed. They can only control their performance. Do their best and let the chips fall where they may.
 

Cowbell Man

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Feb 2, 2002
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There are limits to that. Positive infinity belief in self wasn't putting Micah Jordan over Zain or Jason.

But point taken. The guys can't control their seed. They can only control their performance. Do their best and let the chips fall where they may.
We’ve talked about this before and yes, eventually it all does come down to beating the guy in the other stripe no matter who it is.

However, in a normal year, competitors do earn the right to have a pathway appropriately seeded. If the seeding is really wrong, it could unnaturally (not by upset) drop a high seed into the back side and blister guys fighting back to the podium. That’s where the damage of bad seeding is really felt. It’s also fair to say a guy in a 6th seed has “earned” the right NOT to see the top seed until the finals. You still have to beat him, but who wants to face Spencer Lee before the finals and have a shot at being 2nd place taken away entirely.
This year, there isn’t a ton of really good data so it will just be whatever it is. They may have to look at last year for help which is not terribly desirable.
 

1032004

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Jan 3, 2019
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My rank assumed Bartlett beats Baxter. He would be 2-1 at 149 and 6-1 overall. Rooks would be 2-1 also with wins over Baxter and Verk and loss to Thomas. Could rank them either way. Scharenbrock is 2-5 lost to Gardner. If hardy isn't guy for Nebraska, he has no wins over anyone in the field. So Maybe 11.
I don't see Bartlett being higher than 13, only ahead of Maryland who would be the only wrestler in the field he'd have a win over assuming he wins tonight. Everyone else will have a win over someone in the field, including either Hardy or Lovett for Nebraska.
 

regularfan

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Jan 22, 2019
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I don't see Bartlett being higher than 13, only ahead of Maryland who would be the only wrestler in the field he'd have a win over assuming he wins tonight. Everyone else will have a win over someone in the field, including either Hardy or Lovett for Nebraska.
I kind of feel similar about Bartlett. Maybe 12 ahead of the Wisconsin kid who lost in OT to Gardner. His only conference win was against Hardy I believe who I think has been replaced by Lovett it looks like since Hardy wrestled extra matches yesterday.

Curious what you think Howard's seed will be? Medley's only matches at 125 he lost to Foley and lost to Howard. I just have a feeling Ragusin will be the guy for Michigan at 125 and they were just giving him a break on weight but I could be wrong. So Howard will hopefully win tonight vs. Maryland who doesn't have a win at 125. The PSU naysayers will argue he beat the Michigan backup and lost to Heinselman. The optimists would say he is 2-1 with the Medley win being a probable top 20 kid if he had wrestled the weight all year.
 
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1032004

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Jan 3, 2019
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I kind of feel similar about Bartlett. Maybe 12 ahead of the Wisconsin kid who lost in OT to Gardner. His only conference win was against Hardy I believe who I think has been replaced by Lovett it looks like since Hardy wrestled extra matches yesterday.

Curious what you think Howard's seed will be? Medley's only matches at 125 he lost to Foley and lost to Howard. I just have a feeling Ragusin will be the guy for Michigan at 125 and they were just giving him a break on weight but I could be wrong. So Howard will hopefully win tonight vs. Maryland who doesn't have a win at 125. The PSU naysayers will argue he beat the Michigan backup and lost to Heinselman. The optimists would say he is 2-1 with the Medley win being a probable top 20 kid if he had wrestled the weight all year.
Good point about Scharenbrock of Wisconsin, I think you're right especially if Lovett is the guy for B10's. So that would put Bartlett at 12 and my guess would be likely wrestling Storr first round.

Here's what I wrote about Howard in the earlier PSU vs. Maryland thread. That one's definitely tougher to predict.

Right now I think Howard is pretty much locked at somewhere between 11-13 (14 if he loses to Maryland which I don't expect to happen). Not sure what's up with Indiana's Hudkins as he is 0-2 and missed a bunch of matches but he had some good wins last year (edit: they're supposed to wrestle Purdue today so I wonder if he will wrestle vs. Schroder, or if Schroder will wrestle for that matter). Assuming Howard beats Sandoval he should be seeded higher than him but if for some reason they don't wrestle I think he should still be as Sandoval is winless but I could see some votes for Sandoval since he wrestled 133 (albeit not that well) last year. Coin flip between who is seeded higher between Howard and Aguilar IMO since Aguilar hasn't looked good and is 0-4 but has only lost to good guys and was the 16 seed at NCAA's last year. I do wonder how much the coaches will weigh Howard's win vs Medley if Ragusin goes 125 for B10's. Of course only the 11 would put him opposite Lee. Cael could maybe argue to put him over Cardani but that's a longshot IMO.
 

dmm53

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Feb 4, 2017
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Where does Kerk get seeded? If they seed him too low, he could mess up the bracket early for higher seeded guys. Might be interesting if he gets a 6th seed. He would thennmeet Cassiopi in the quarters and Parris in the semis.
 

El-Jefe

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Jul 27, 2012
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I'd make Kerk the 4 seed, but I don't have a vote. Guessing 7th.

The easiest thing to do would be to use the latest Coaches Poll and sub in Kerk for Nevills' spot.

The 2/11 Coaches Poll:
1 Steveson
2 Parris
3 Cass
8 Luffman
10 Lance
11 Hillger
15 Orndorff
16 Snacks

This was before Snacks beat Orndorff, so swap their order.

Luffman and Lance both have 6 wins, and both beat Hillger. I don't see Kerk getting seeded ahead of them at B10s.

Hillger has not been great this year: 3-2 with no wins over a .500 wrestler. But he's a returning AA, so he might be out of reach seeding-wise for Kerk.

BTW, Kerk destroyed Luffman in 2017 when he was a 195 moving into 220 and visibly undersized. I don't see any reason to believe that outcome would change (except the gap widening).
 
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1032004

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Jan 3, 2019
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Yeah I think 7 seed makes sense for Kerk. I could see Ryan arguing for Orndorff over him since they didn’t actually wrestle, but if it’s just a coaches vote I think it goes to Kerk.

BTW, Hudkins did not wrestle last night so I think Howard gets seeded over him at least. I personally think he should be seeded behind Aguilar due to his results last year but not sure that happens with an 0-4 record vs 2-1. All 4 of Aguilar’s losses are to guys that should be seeded in the top 9, although he did get pinned 3 times which could be a factor. That will be a big decision as mentioned since whoever is 11 is on the opposite side of Lee and 2-13 are all somewhat evenly matched IMO.
 

Sullivan

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Nov 24, 2001
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I'd make Kerk the 4 seed, but I don't have a vote. Guessing 7th.

The easiest thing to do would be to use the latest Coaches Poll and sub in Kerk for Nevills' spot.

The 2/11 Coaches Poll:
1 Steveson
2 Parris
3 Cass
8 Luffman
10 Lance
11 Hillger
15 Orndorff
16 Snacks

This was before Snacks beat Orndorff, so swap their order.

Luffman and Lance both have 6 wins, and both beat Hillger. I don't see Kerk getting seeded ahead of them at B10s.

Hillger has not been great this year: 3-2 with no wins over a .500 wrestler. But he's a returning AA, so he might be out of reach seeding-wise for Kerk.

BTW, Kerk destroyed Luffman in 2017 when he was a 195 moving into 220 and visibly undersized. I don't see any reason to believe that outcome would change (except the gap widening).
If Kerk comes in at #7, he could potentially see Paris (#2) in the quarters, Cass (#3) in the semis, and Steveson (#1) in the finals.
 

Cowbell Man

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The least damaging spot to the field would be the 4. At the 7 you have destined Kerk or Parris to the backside after the quarters. Yikes. At the 4 he wrestles Lance or Luffman while Parris dooms Hilger.
Kerkvliet just doesn’t have history and it’s a bummer to the guys on the fringe of making the NCAA championship.

It’s kinda funny that I care for the guys at the bottom of the field, but double elimination is one of the very special things about wrestling. You can fight your ass off and claw back to the podium. Yes....you have to win your matches so maybe the Champion doesn’t care. But accurate seeding definitely matters to the rest. James Vollrath and James English are reminders of what that means to both our team championships and individual goals.
 

Random4598375

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Jan 10, 2020
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I don't see Bartlett being higher than 13, only ahead of Maryland who would be the only wrestler in the field he'd have a win over assuming he wins tonight. Everyone else will have a win over someone in the field, including either Hardy or Lovett for Nebraska.
I disagree. There has to be some semblance of judgment or wrestling knowledge applied to the seedings as well as hard results. Seeding Bartlett 13th just based on Ws and Ls when there is a general acknowledgement that he should be much higher is not fair, not just to Bartlett, but also the other guys in the draw. Imagine being a 4 seed (e.g. Storr) and having to face 13 Bartlett when you know he should be much higher. Is that fair to the 4 seed? Storr is staring at possibly having to go through every round of wrestlebacks to salvage a national tournament spot because the seeding people refused to recognize a true ability-based seeding.

It's OK to say he should be bumped down a couple spots from where his intuitive seed would be because of a lack of match record because that is legitimately based on uncertainty, but there definitely should be a limit to how far down he should go.
 

El-Jefe

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I disagree. There has to be some semblance of judgment or wrestling knowledge applied to the seedings as well as hard results. Seeding Bartlett 13th just based on Ws and Ls when there is a general acknowledgement that he should be much higher is not fair, not just to Bartlett, but also the other guys in the draw. Imagine being a 4 seed (e.g. Storr) and having to face 13 Bartlett when you know he should be much higher. Is that fair to the 4 seed? Storr is staring at possibly having to go through every round of wrestlebacks to salvage a national tournament spot because the seeding people refused to recognize a true ability-based seeding.

It's OK to say he should be bumped down a couple spots from where his intuitive seed would be because of a lack of match record because that is legitimately based on uncertainty, but there definitely should be a limit to how far down he should go.
Bartlett at 13:

 

1032004

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Jan 3, 2019
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I disagree. There has to be some semblance of judgment or wrestling knowledge applied to the seedings as well as hard results. Seeding Bartlett 13th just based on Ws and Ls when there is a general acknowledgement that he should be much higher is not fair, not just to Bartlett, but also the other guys in the draw. Imagine being a 4 seed (e.g. Storr) and having to face 13 Bartlett when you know he should be much higher. Is that fair to the 4 seed? Storr is staring at possibly having to go through every round of wrestlebacks to salvage a national tournament spot because the seeding people refused to recognize a true ability-based seeding.

It's OK to say he should be bumped down a couple spots from where his intuitive seed would be because of a lack of match record because that is legitimately based on uncertainty, but there definitely should be a limit to how far down he should go.
I was corrected and changed it to that he should be the 12 and I'll stick by that. The guy that will likely be 11 (Omania) will have a win over Storr so yes it's probably fair to Storr. Actually I think Bartlett will face Storr first round anyway since I think Storr will be at 5.

It's not the same situation as HWT where the guys around 9 and below don't have many results, everyone else at 149 has actual results. I think he could've had an argument over Omania until Omania beat Storr. Rooks, VanBrill and Blockhus were all NQ's last year and Rooks beat the guy PSU sent out. I don't know what they'll do but I don't see the coaches putting a guy that has beaten 1 possible starter (that's 0-5 in duals) at the weight ahead of those guys (but yes, he may beat them).
 

1032004

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Jan 3, 2019
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The least damaging spot to the field would be the 4. At the 7 you have destined Kerk or Parris to the backside after the quarters. Yikes. At the 4 he wrestles Lance or Luffman while Parris dooms Hilger.
Kerkvliet just doesn’t have history and it’s a bummer to the guys on the fringe of making the NCAA championship.

It’s kinda funny that I care for the guys at the bottom of the field, but double elimination is one of the very special things about wrestling. You can fight your ass off and claw back to the podium. Yes....you have to win your matches so maybe the Champion doesn’t care. But accurate seeding definitely matters to the rest. James Vollrath and James English are reminders of what that means to both our team championships and individual goals.
Maybe you can put him at 5, but I think Luffman definitely deserves the 4 for beating both Hillger and Orndorff. But with Hillger being a past AA and also losing to Lance, I still think in reality those 2 should probably be seeded ahead of Kerk too. Keep in mind seedings aren't predictions.
 

GogglesPaizano

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Feb 6, 2018
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If Kerk comes in at #7, he could potentially see Paris (#2) in the quarters, Cass (#3) in the semis, and Steveson (#1) in the finals.
Perfect scenario would be for Kerk to face Cassi in the quarters (at Nationals) and knock him out early, then send either of the big two into that bracket to nail him again. It won't happen by then because Kerk's path of destruction through Bigs will boost him too high in the seeding.

As for Big 10s. To be honest, after sitting the whole season I don't see him going through both Paris and Gable. I have no problem with him enjoying some growing pains on the way to Naty's. We need to be realistic.
 
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Random4598375

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Jan 10, 2020
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Maybe you can put him at 5, but I think Luffman definitely deserves the 4 for beating both Hillger and Orndorff. But with Hillger being a past AA and also losing to Lance, I still think in reality those 2 should probably be seeded ahead of Kerk too. Keep in mind seedings aren't predictions.
Mechanically, 6 is probably the best spot for Kerk. 6 would mean seeing Cassi then Parris then Steveson depending on how far he goes (IMO, I don't think he'll beat either Parris or Steveson, although as a wildcard in the draw, he has the ability to do that the others don't), but most importantly not potentially throwing Parris or Steveson into wrestlebacks in the quarters if he does score the upset. Not that I think that's where he'll end up, but I think it creates the best draw.
 

Cowbell Man

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Feb 2, 2002
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Maybe you can put him at 5, but I think Luffman definitely deserves the 4 for beating both Hillger and Orndorff. But with Hillger being a past AA and also losing to Lance, I still think in reality those 2 should probably be seeded ahead of Kerk too. Keep in mind seedings aren't predictions.
Nope. Not predictions. Seeding is to create fairness based on a set of criteria. It works except in the odd case like this and it most always revolves around a wrestler with immense talent that a bad seeding creates disruption. You are right....how COULD you place him higher? There isn’t really any record or anythhbfto refer to except the “everyone knows”.

An injured Jason Nolf. Josh Kindig and Hunter Stieber (and both turned out to be largely unable to be their former self). Heck....even Snyder had to be placed in a odd spot since he didn’t wrestle a full season. We even gripe about the lack of seeding at PIAA creating havoc.

TheBig10 has an out though. They don’t actually have published criteria. They can do what they want. We will see. I think he will be a 7. I just meant there’s less damage to a back bracket if he’s a 4.

Maybe the most interesting question is....where will Covid be seeded? That’s the real bracket buster.

is it Saturday the 7th yet?
 

Dogwelder

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Aug 1, 2013
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“First crack at Big Ten Seeds”

Did anyone else see “crack” and “seeds” and think “What does Zain do to watermelons?” :)
 

1032004

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Jan 3, 2019
420
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Nope. Not predictions. Seeding is to create fairness based on a set of criteria. It works except in the odd case like this and it most always revolves around a wrestler with immense talent that a bad seeding creates disruption. You are right....how COULD you place him higher? There isn’t really any record or anythhbfto refer to except the “everyone knows”.

An injured Jason Nolf. Josh Kindig and Hunter Stieber (and both turned out to be largely unable to be their former self). Heck....even Snyder had to be placed in a odd spot since he didn’t wrestle a full season. We even gripe about the lack of seeding at PIAA creating havoc.

TheBig10 has an out though. They don’t actually have published criteria. They can do what they want. We will see. I think he will be a 7. I just meant there’s less damage to a back bracket if he’s a 4.

Maybe the most interesting question is....where will Covid be seeded? That’s the real bracket buster.

is it Saturday the 7th yet?
Coaches definitely look at historical results and as you called out there is a precedent for seeding guys that had been injured better than their results from that season would indicate, but is there any precedent for seeding a freshman that was injured? I guess they could look to his FS wins, but right now his best folkstyle win is Gavin Hoffman.