Bottom line is probably 40% of the time, a highly rated recruit who verbals before his 'star' takes off and has a chance to take his official visits, earn additional offers, and show off on twitter is going to decommit. If said recruit is out of state and especially in a place where there is tremendous pressure to stay local (such as the SEC, or 'South' in general), bump that up to 75%. So far, 100% of the five star prospects who verballed to Penn State this year, and who made their initial verbals while still Juniors in HS, have bailed. Fields committed in December 2016. CJF was ahead of all the big players - Bama, Oregon, and Texas didn't offer until after the new year, and he received his offer from Florida in February. I don't blame these kids for looking around which is what they should do in the first place, but don't commit if you're not certain.