fair Cael vs Gable assessment?

[PSUbluTX]

I came across this article over on TOM: "Gable Versus Cael: How Their Coaching Careers Stack Up So Far" (https://news.theopenmat.com/blog/2018/04/19/gable-versus-cael-coaching-careers-stack-far-apr-19-2018).

Seems like a worthy effort to compare coaching performance from different eras, which is inherently problematic. So many variables and unknowns. I'm curious if others here find this to be a fair comparison. Something seems a little off to me, though I can't put my finger on it. There's no denying that Gable is a legend, but the article feels unfairly skewed in his favor. For example, it says: "Gable owned the sport in a way that has not yet been approached by anyone." It's still relatively early in Cael's coaching career (about half as long as Gable's), but it feels like he's at least "approaching" Gable's dominance.

 

[Dogwelder]

Wow. Gable was dominant! I did not know just how dominant.

Gable, in his first 9 years at Iowa, it seems, exceeded PSU Cael in every way, except one big one: Cael at PSU has averaged 2.444 national champs per year versus Gable's 1.889 national champs per year (first 9 years).

I wonder just how much Cael's first year brought down his averages. (Worst case, multiply ~each of Cael's averages by 9/8 to obtain the upper limits on Cael's recent-8-years averages.)

Can anyone comment on how good was Iowa before Gable joined, versus how good was PSU before Cael joined?

 

[NoVa Lion]

Wow. Gable was dominant! I did not know just how dominant.

Gable, in his first 9 years at Iowa, it seems, exceeded PSU Cael in every way, except one big one: Cael at PSU has averaged 2.444 national champs per year versus Gable's 1.889 national champs per year (first 9 years).

I wonder just how much Cael's first year brought down his averages. (Worst case, multiply ~each of Cael's averages by 9/8 to obtain the upper limits on Cael's recent-8-years averages.)

Can anyone comment on how good was Iowa before Gable joined, versus how good was PSU before Cael joined?

Iowa was the NCAA champ Gable's last year as an assistant so they were pretty good. I think that was their first ever team title.

 

[nitlion6]

Wow. Gable was dominant! I did not know just how dominant.

Gable, in his first 9 years at Iowa, it seems, exceeded PSU Cael in every way, except one big one: Cael at PSU has averaged 2.444 national champs per year versus Gable's 1.889 national champs per year (first 9 years).

I wonder just how much Cael's first year brought down his averages. (Worst case, multiply ~each of Cael's averages by 9/8 to obtain the upper limits on Cael's recent-8-years averages.)

Can anyone comment on how good was Iowa before Gable joined, versus how good was PSU before Cael joined?

Iowa won their first 2 championships 75 and 76 with Gable an assistant for Gary Kurdelmeier.
Cael took over a program Troy had pretty much sucked the life out of, but did leave a few solid pieces to work with. Q, Frank, Vallimont and an incoming recruit named Ruuuuuth.

 

[purescurve]

You might want to throw out the 1984 data. He was coaching the Olympic team. Guess who was the asst. coach?

 

[CJF_Said_The_Great_Joe_Paterno]

Iowa won their first 2 championships 75 and 76 with Gable an assistant for Gary Kurdelmeier.
Cael took over a program Troy had pretty much sucked the life out of, but did leave a few solid pieces to work with. Q, Frank, Vallimont and an incoming recruit named Ruuuuuth.

Additionally, Iowa did not win Championship in Gable's first year as HC, Iowa State won Championship that year (Okie State finished 2nd that year I believe). Gable would go on to win 9 consecutive titles his 2nd through 10th year. Gable won 8 titles in his first 9 years - Cael has won 7 in his first 9 years at PSU and has significantly outperformed Gable in terms of NCAA Champs produced in first 9 years at PSU....so relative to Cael's tenure at PSU (i.e., his first 9 years) versus Gable's first 9 at Iowa, they are in a virtual dead heat in terms of how dominating they were over that span (i.e., Gable's first 9 years at Iowa versus Cael's first 9 at PSU).

 

[androcles]

...Gable also had about twice as many scholarships then ... compared to Cael now ...
...there was a time back then when wrestling was able to have 21 total aides, vs 9.9 currently...
... how do you think Cael would do with 5 FULL rides to give each year?...

 

[dicemen99]

I think it is very fair. Gable is the greatest NCAA wrestling coach of all time. Cael is off to a start which approaches Gable's but doesn't surpass him. Still slight edge to Gable. Gable had some years coming up (past first 10) which will bring his averages down, so he will have a chance to draw even with Gable or even surpass him (that would be a Wooden-esque achievement), but it is going to take another run like we are on. I'm not sure it's very likely, but then I didn't see 7 out of 8 coming either. We could have easily lost in more than a few of those years as well, whether our compadres to the west will admit it or not, PSU certainly comes up big at nationals. Nobody really close in that category for the last 10 years. So stuff like that makes me think it's possible.

Let's see where it stands in another 5 years. Then another 5 after that.

 

[nitlion6]

I think it is very fair. Gable is the greatest NCAA wrestling coach of all time. Cael is off to a start which approaches Gable's but doesn't surpass him. Still slight edge to Gable. Gable had some years coming up (past first 10) which will bring his averages down, so he will have a chance to draw even with Gable or even surpass him (that would be a Wooden-esque achievement), but it is going to take another run like we are on. I'm not sure it's very likely, but then I didn't see 7 out of 8 coming either. We could have easily lost in more than a few of those years as well, whether our compadres to the west will admit it or not, PSU certainly comes up big at nationals. Nobody really close in that category for the last 10 years. So stuff like that makes me think it's possible.

Let's see where it stands in another 5 years. Then another 5 after that.

16 - 0 in past 16 NCAA semi-finals matches is definitely coming up big.

 

[Ian]

Only true comparison is Cael’s Time at PSU and Gables first nine years. Cael is getting close and will be neck and neck or ahead over the next nine. It’s really hard to line it up one on one simply because of the difference in periods. Cael is dealing with 9.9 scholarships and not sure Gable had to back then. The field is much deeper and more competitive today, too. Gable is still king but Cael is coming fast.

 

[Brian LB-U]

...Gable also had about twice as many scholarships then ... compared to Cael now ...
...there was a time back then when wrestling was able to have 21 total aides, vs 9.9 currently...
... how do you think Cael would do with 5 FULL rides to give each year?...

Gable also got sanctioned by the NCAA for giving out an extra 7.39 scholarships between 1987 and 1990 - a huge competitive advantage! Four other BIG wrestling programs were punished for the same "creative accounting", but their numbers were a fraction of Gable's (Minn: 1.73, UofM: .60, Ind: 1.74, Wisc: .865).

The NCAA rule that was broken went into effect in 1979, but for some reason they only investigated the years 87-90 (the report mentions how some member schools admitted doing same from 79-90). Given all this, I personally believe there's a decent chance Gable's empire was built from day 1 on giving out a significant number extra scholarships relative to the competition. That isn't to say he wasn't a great coach because clearly he was. At the same time these violations can't be overlooked.

 

[CJF_Said_The_Great_Joe_Paterno]

Only true comparison is Cael’s Time at PSU and Gables first nine years. Cael is getting close and will be neck and neck or ahead over the next nine. It’s really hard to line it up one on one simply because of the difference in periods. Cael is dealing with 9.9 scholarships and not sure Gable had to back then. The field is much deeper and more competitive today, too. Gable is still king but Cael is coming fast.

Yes, and you can't overlook the fact that Cael has produced significantly more Champions over the span. Yes, Gable had 8 Team Championships in his first 9 years versus Cael's 7, but that also is a factor of competition....Cael producing significantly more Champions is a metric that can't be ignored in this comparison.

 

[CJF_Said_The_Great_Joe_Paterno]

Gable also got sanctioned by the NCAA for giving out an extra 7.39 scholarships between 1987 and 1990 - a huge competitive advantage! Four other BIG wrestling programs were punished for the same "creative accounting", but their numbers were a fraction of Gable's (Minn: 1.73, UofM: .60, Ind: 1.74, Wisc: .865).

The NCAA rule that was broken went into effect in 1979, but they only investigated 87-90. I personally believe there's a decent chance Gable's empire was built on giving out a significant number extra scholarships relative to the competition. That isn't to say he wasn't a great coach because clearly he was. At the same time this can't be overlooked.

No doubt. A fact that makes Cael's accomplishment of producing more Individual Champions than Gable in his first 9 at PSU (versus Gable's first 9 at Iowa) all the more impressive. Taking all the metrics into consideration - team titles, AAs produced, Individual Champions produced, etc...., it is a virtual dead heat in terms of who was more dominating during their first 9 years at the respective programs imho.

 

[androcles]

...why not jes let them wrestle off?...

 

[NoVa Lion]

Gable also got sanctioned by the NCAA for giving out an extra 7.39 scholarships between 1987 and 1990 - a huge competitive advantage! Four other BIG wrestling programs were punished for the same "creative accounting", but their numbers were a fraction of Gable's (Minn: 1.73, UofM: .60, Ind: 1.74, Wisc: .865).

The NCAA rule that was broken went into effect in 1979, but they only investigated 87-90. I personally believe there's a decent chance Gable's empire was built on giving out a significant number extra scholarships relative to the competition. That isn't to say he wasn't a great coach because clearly he was. At the same time this can't be overlooked.

I didn't know that. Do you have a link to an article re that? Thanks.

 

[Ian]

It’s like comparing today’s college BB coaches to John Wooden...

 

[Brian LB-U]

I didn't know that. Do you have a link to an article re that? Thanks.

Yes, here's a link to the official report: https://web3.ncaa.org/lsdbi/search/miCaseView/report?id=101820

 

[NoVa Lion]

Yes, here's a link to the official report: https://web3.ncaa.org/lsdbi/search/miCaseView/report?id=101820

Thanks, you found a lot more than I did. Nice to have confirmation that Iowa (and other BIG schools) actually did this. However, the advantage wasn't quite as bad as it's been made out to be. Per this for the 4 years covered Iowa gave an extra 2 or so ships per year for wrestling. Still quite an advantage.

 

[lions#1]

I'm curious how a Cael PSU lineup would do versus a Dan Gable Iowa squad during each's first 9 years:

125 - Nico 1 NCAA championship
133 - Conway?
141 - Alton, Frank or Lee?
149 - 4 NCAA championships (Zain, Frank)
157 - 3 NCAA championships (Taylor, Nolf)
165 - 3 NCAA championships (Taylor, Joseph)
174 - 3 NCAA championships (Ruth, Brown, Hall)
184 - 5 NCAA championships (Wright, Ruth, Bo)
197 - Wright 1 NCAA championship
HWT - Nick

Jason, Vin, and Bo could all join Ed and Zain as 3x NCAA champions next season - all in Cael's first 10 seasons at PSU

Thoughts?

 

[CJF_Said_The_Great_Joe_Paterno]

I'm curious how a Cael PSU lineup would do versus a Dan Gable Iowa squad during each's first 9 years:

125 - Nico 1 NCAA championship
133 - Conway?
141 - Alton, Frank or Lee?
149 - 4 NCAA championships (Zain, Frank)
157 - 3 NCAA championships (Taylor, Nolf)
165 - 3 NCAA championships (Taylor, Joseph)
174 - 3 NCAA championships (Ruth, Brown, Hall)
184 - 5 NCAA championships (Wright, Ruth, Bo)
197 - Wright 1 NCAA championship
HWT - Nick

Jason, Vin, and Bo could all join Ed and Zain as 3x NCAA champions next season - all in Cael's first 10 seasons at PSU

Thoughts?

Not to nitpick, but Cael has only been at PSU 9 years, not 10 (his 10th year may well bring more Champions and another Championship...).

 

[androcles]

...2 ships per year for 4 years is about the number that a team gets now ...
... 9.9 / 5 years = < 2 per year, figuring that most RS a year....

 

[GogglesPaizano]

Historical compares are always intense and remain debatable once the dust settles. Were the Steelers of the 70s the best ever or are Bellicheat's Pats, or the Cowboys...? I think you can tell which direction I lean.

What I know for certain is what Cael has done here is nothing short of remarkable. He has surpassed any expectation from PSU fans, administrators, as well as HR pundits I wouldn't trade Cael for a dozen Gables for our program. tOSU and OSU have fielded some remarkably deep teams, with last year's Buckeye squad arguably the strongest 2nd place team ever, and Cael delivered without a #2 Suriano and lacking both Nolf and a 125 in the dual.

Dan Gable commands nothing but awe for what he accomplished as a wrestler and a coach. Despite human nature's desire to do comparisons, Gable was in a league by himself for a long time with noone then posting a threat. Cael has now established himself in that same category.

The Cael 'March peak' in time will become legendary. It is an awesome time to be a fan.

Years from now when Cael has finished what he has set or to do at Penn State, I think their coaching records will compare similarly to their NCAA career records as wrestlers. There is only 1 Cael Sanderson.

 

[Ja1339]

Gable also got sanctioned by the NCAA for giving out an extra 7.39 scholarships between 1987 and 1990 - a huge competitive advantage! Four other BIG wrestling programs were punished for the same "creative accounting", but their numbers were a fraction of Gable's (Minn: 1.73, UofM: .60, Ind: 1.74, Wisc: .865).

The NCAA rule that was broken went into effect in 1979, but for some reason they only investigated the years 87-90 (the report mentions how some member schools admitted doing same from 79-90). Given all this, I personally believe there's a decent chance Gable's empire was built from day 1 on giving out a significant number extra scholarships relative to the competition. That isn't to say he wasn't a great coach because clearly he was. At the same time these violations can't be overlooked.

Wait, what? Does Vodka know about this?

 

[Pennstate1985]

Historical compares are always intense and remain debatable once the dust settles. Were the Steelers of the 70s the best ever or are Bellicheat's Pats, or the Cowboys...? I think you can tell which direction I lean.

What I know for certain is what Cael has done here is nothing short of remarkable. He has surpassed any expectation from PSU fans, administrators, as well as HR pundits I wouldn't trade Cael for a dozen Gables for our program. tOSU and OSU have fielded some remarkably deep teams, with last year's Buckeye squad arguably the strongest 2nd place team ever, and Cael delivered without a #2 Suriano and lacking both Nolf and a 125 in the dual.

Dan Gable commands nothing but awe for what he accomplished as a wrestler and a coach. Despite human nature's desire to do comparisons, Gable was in a league by himself for a long time with noone then posting a threat. Cael has now established himself in that same category.

The Cael 'March peak' in time will become legendary. It is an awesome time to be a fan.

Years from now when Cael has finished what he has set or to do at Penn State, I think their coaching records will compare similarly to their NCAA career records as wrestlers. There is only 1 Cael Sanderson.

Great post. Just two comments.

Have no idea who Bellicheat and Pats are. Is it an Irish band? I know what a Cowboy is, but not sure what a rodeo has to do with football. Can you see my lean?

Your comment about the team peaking in mid March is spot on, and doesn’t get mentioned enough. Even opposing fans know PSU will bring it at nationals, and the further into it, the better they perform. Very similar to Gable’s teams.

 

[Brian LB-U]

Wait, what? Does Vodka know about this?

 

[WildTurk]

Gable>Cael and it isn't close right now. Let's give it another decade. Both amazing men

 

[Dogwelder]

...2 ships per year for 4 years is about the number that a team gets now ...
... 9.9 / 5 years = < 2 per year, figuring that most RS a year....

[my original post edited out]

Hi Androcles,

Since you divide the annual payout of 9.9 tuitions by 5, you must be saying that a fully-funded team gives the equivalent of about two new full 5-year scholarship offers per year, nowadays. That I understand.

However, I can’t figure out how to figure out whether the extra 7.39 “grants in aid” that the Iowa team gave out were (A) 7.39 full 5-year scholarships or (B) 7.39 full 4-year scholarships or (C) 7.39 full 1-year scholarships.

How did you decide the answer was (A)?

(Assuming that I interpreted you correctly.)

 

[lookleft goright]

It is fun to start the comparisons, but until Cael is finished, it will be hard to make a strong case either way.
One of the keys is consistency. Gable was consistently winning over a 20 year span. Cael certainly seems to be showing that.
Gable was able to get a lot out of his wrestlers and they performed amazingly. Cael is certainly showing that he can do the same.
Gable changed the sport and the way people trained. Cael is doing that now and he is leading the way for guys to wrestle a wide open style. You watched the Hawks and talked about them in the Gable era and you watch the Nittany Lions and talk about them during the Cael era.
I guess it is human nature to want to know who is the best and to debate it, but I , as a wrestling fan, just enjoy watching the PSU guys wrestle. Comparing Cael to a past great is just a distraction. Both are/were great for the sport. Both have moved the sport forward. Both are the benchmark of a great coach during their tenure.
As a side note. Both of them are relatively quiet. It gives me the impression that they were/are both deep thinkers.

 

[Dogwelder]

It is fun ..., but ... Comparing Cael to a past great is just a distraction ...

Not a distraction! It is possible to compare and have a bowel movement at the same time. ... So I’ve heard.

 

[CJF_Said_The_Great_Joe_Paterno]

It is fun to start the comparisons, but until Cael is finished, it will be hard to make a strong case either way.
One of the keys is consistency. Gable was consistently winning over a 20 year span. Cael certainly seems to be showing that.
Gable was able to get a lot out of his wrestlers and they performed amazingly. Cael is certainly showing that he can do the same.
Gable changed the sport and the way people trained. Cael is doing that now and he is leading the way for guys to wrestle a wide open style. You watched the Hawks and talked about them in the Gable era and you watch the Nittany Lions and talk about them during the Cael era.
I guess it is human nature to want to know who is the best and to debate it, but I , as a wrestling fan, just enjoy watching the PSU guys wrestle. Comparing Cael to a past great is just a distraction. Both are/were great for the sport. Both have moved the sport forward. Both are the benchmark of a great coach during their tenure.
As a side note. Both of them are relatively quiet. It gives me the impression that they were/are both deep thinkers.

Not hard to compare the actual numbers of Cael's first 9 years at PSU to Gable's first 9 at Iowa. It's quite easy in fact and reality...read the posts above.

 

[CJF_Said_The_Great_Joe_Paterno]

Gable>Cael and it isn't close right now. Let's give it another decade. Both amazing men

Too funny, nobody made or argued the claim you posted...the only comparison being made is Cael's first 9 years at PSU being as dominant a stretch as Gable's first 9 years at Iowa. And it is a virtual dead-heat between the two in their first 9 years when you consider all of the numbers (and Cael arguably did it with a significant scholarship-funded wrestler disadvantage to Gable). Yes, Gable won 8 out of 9 Team Championships vs. Cael's 7 Team Championships in first 9 years at PSU, but Cael produced 22 Individual Champions over his first 9 years at PSU far exceeding Gable's 16 Individual Champions in his first 9 years at Iowa (a remarkable feat considering that Gable had far more scholarship-funded wrestlers on his teams during his first 9 years at Iowa than Cael had on his teams' during his first 9 years at PSU).

 

[cidhawkeye]

Caels ability to peak in March is the hallmark of the program. It's amazing. Gable was similar. You will hear about the 'wow, he got the top 5 pfp wrestler to peak' sarcasm but that isn't always easy to do as well. Putting the comparable lineups would be interesting.

 

[lookleft goright]

Not hard to compare the actual numbers of Cael's first 9 years at PSU to Gable's first 9 at Iowa. It's quite easy in fact and reality...read the posts above.

Comparing the numbers is easy. Deciding who was better, if either, is more difficult. There are a lot of intangibles along with different eras and landscapes of college athletics. That is what I was trying to say. Thanks for reading my post and taking the time to reply.

 

[IaGodsCountry]

Huge Hawkeye fan here and look through black and gold glasses often. Obviously Gable is like a god to us.... but Cael is it now. What he has done is amazing. As lookleft said, hard to say which is better the 1st 9 years as the landscape is different. Iowa during the Gable years always peaked during NCAAs, PSU definitely like that now, especially in 2017.

 

[nitlion6]

Caels ability to peak in March is the hallmark of the program. It's amazing. Gable was similar. You will hear about the 'wow, he got the top 5 pfp wrestler to peak' sarcasm but that isn't always easy to do as well. Putting the comparable lineups would be interesting.

Everybody can win with the Yankees' lineup, except Cashman might find out Girardi was a pretty good manager.

 

[cidhawkeye]

Everybody can win with the Yankees' lineup, except Cashman might find out Girardi was a pretty good manager.

It's never as easy as people say it is.

 

[PSUbluTX]

Huge Hawkeye fan here and look through black and gold glasses often. Obviously Gable is like a god to us.... but Cael is it now. What he has done is amazing. As lookleft said, hard to say which is better the 1st 9 years as the landscape is different. Iowa during the Gable years always peaked during NCAAs, PSU definitely like that now, especially in 2017.

Welcome IaGodsCountry. Agree with all you said. While true that Cael is great at having his guys ready for NCAAs, the same can be said for the regular season. You have to go back to the 2014-15 season to find the last dual loss.

 

[IaGodsCountry]

Thanks TX. Too true, you took down fOSU w/o Nolf, impressive, we lost to Michigan w/o Kemmerer. I can't stand it, but Cael is getting it done and we're playing catchup. We got people complaining...oh the slush fund.. rumors..don't know if it's true or not..don't care... don't leave it up to the ref..

 

[Ranger Dan]

Gable also got sanctioned by the NCAA for giving out an extra 7.39 scholarships between 1987 and 1990 - a huge competitive advantage! Four other BIG wrestling programs were punished for the same "creative accounting", but their numbers were a fraction of Gable's (Minn: 1.73, UofM: .60, Ind: 1.74, Wisc: .865).

The NCAA rule that was broken went into effect in 1979, but for some reason they only investigated the years 87-90 (the report mentions how some member schools admitted doing same from 79-90). Given all this, I personally believe there's a decent chance Gable's empire was built from day 1 on giving out a significant number extra scholarships relative to the competition. That isn't to say he wasn't a great coach because clearly he was. At the same time these violations can't be overlooked.

If true, then why weren’t the wins and championships taken away?

 

[nitlion6]

If true, then why weren’t the wins and championships taken away?

There isn't any if true about it.
What was done was Iowa calculated scholarship funding by number of ships (11 then 9.9) times cost of out-of-state full ride. Then used that amount to divvy up amongst their ship wrestlers.
Whatever reasoning was used to determine appropriate sanctions is a question for the NCAA.