Expectations for this PSU team getting out of hand

[tboyer]

There's been a lot of good pub around recruiting, NFL combine, but this is getting out of hand IMHO.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-f...e-should-be-the-big-ten-front-runner-in-2018/

Don't get me wrong, PSU will be good and if things break right could be very good. But there are some potential big issues and I could easily see 3-5 losses this year if things break badly.

1) Height-challenged at wideout (except for JJ who is hurt), and an offense that depends on tall, muscular receivers. We are counting on true freshmen to come in and make a difference. To me this is the biggest potential problem on the team. Wideout has been a killer strength for PSU but it might not be this year.

2) Thin, undersized, inexperienced at DT. Again there is nice potential but there is also the potential that the single player we will miss the most from 2017 is Curtis Cothran.

3) Largely inexperienced at LB, and the experienced guys aren't exactly all-B1G caliber players. Again, counting on big contributions from freshmen and redshirt freshmen. Franklin yesterday went on at length about how they have no idea who is going to play in the middle and won't know until late in preseason practice. I don't consider that good news because that position leads the defense.

4) Inexperienced and thin at running back. Miles didn't get the carries he would have normally gotten as backup last year because Franklin was trying to maximize Barkley's Heisman chances. I'm REALLY glad they have Mark Allen.

The problem isn't that they don't have athletes. The problem is that it will be a ton of young players suddenly inheriting a lot of responsibility and pressure, and when the chips are down, you don't know how they'll react. You don't know who the playmakers are going to be.

Obviously there are plenty of reasons for optimism too. McSorley is McSorley and if he's healthy, by the time he's done everybody will agree he's the best ever to play the position at PSU. If the OL makes their big leap and actually becomes one of the best units in the B10 -- with McSorley and Miles that offense could be unstoppable and could cover the D while the D is getting settled in.

Anyway I couldn't be more excited about the team and the program, everything. But they don't deserve anybody's prediction that they're ready to win the B10, not with Ohio State and Wisconsin out there, Iowa and MSU probably improved, and Michigan due for a big bounceback this year.

 

[BiochemPSU]

Personally, I am just "meh" about this year. Maybe as we get closer to August that will change. Might just be post- Barkley hangover.

 

[michnittlion]

This year's team is "more high variance" than last year.

I EXPECTED us to go at least 10-2 last year. I didn't really see any scenarios for worse.

This year - I can see anything from 7-5 (the D isn't good and McSorley struggles with the new OC and the loss of 2017's weapons, particularly Barkley) to 11-1 or even 12-0 (the offense just keeps on ticking, McSorley makes a Heisman run and the D holds their own early and really gels as the season moves on).

I think there is more upside potential. But I'm definitely not as confident as last spring.

We'll find out come September, of course.

 

[Howie'81]

There's been a lot of good pub around recruiting, NFL combine, but this is getting out of hand IMHO.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-f...e-should-be-the-big-ten-front-runner-in-2018/

Don't get me wrong, PSU will be good and if things break right could be very good. But there are some potential big issues and I could easily see 3-5 losses this year if things break badly.

1) Height-challenged at wideout (except for JJ who is hurt), and an offense that depends on tall, muscular receivers. We are counting on true freshmen to come in and make a difference. To me this is the biggest potential problem on the team. Wideout has been a killer strength for PSU but it might not be this year.

2) Thin, undersized, inexperienced at DT. Again there is nice potential but there is also the potential that the single player we will miss the most from 2017 is Curtis Cothran.

3) Largely inexperienced at LB, and the experienced guys aren't exactly all-B1G caliber players. Again, counting on big contributions from freshmen and redshirt freshmen. Franklin yesterday went on at length about how they have no idea who is going to play in the middle and won't know until late in preseason practice. I don't consider that good news because that position leads the defense.

4) Inexperienced and thin at running back. Miles didn't get the carries he would have normally gotten as backup last year because Franklin was trying to maximize Barkley's Heisman chances. I'm REALLY glad they have Mark Allen.

The problem isn't that they don't have athletes. The problem is that it will be a ton of young players suddenly inheriting a lot of responsibility and pressure, and when the chips are down, you don't know how they'll react. You don't know who the playmakers are going to be.

Obviously there are plenty of reasons for optimism too. McSorley is McSorley and if he's healthy, by the time he's done everybody will agree he's the best ever to play the position at PSU. If the OL makes their big leap and actually becomes one of the best units in the B10 -- with McSorley and Miles that offense could be unstoppable and could cover the D while the D is getting settled in.

Anyway I couldn't be more excited about the team and the program, everything. But they don't deserve anybody's prediction that they're ready to win the B10, not with Ohio State and Wisconsin out there, Iowa and MSU probably improved, and Michigan due for a big bounceback this year.

It's college football. Guys need to be replaced every year. The good teams do it all the time and we will do it too....and with really good players because of really good recruiting. I agree with the article. Penn State is in reload mode now. And what makes you think we're the only team replacing players? We are not. Would you rather have a raw QB like OSU is going to have this year or Trace? Every team has holes. To worry about this is fruitless, especially when you know we've recruited very well.

 

[Howie'81]

This year's team is "more high variance" than last year.

I EXPECTED us to go at least 10-2 last year. I didn't really see any scenarios for worse.

This year - I can see anything from 7-5 (the D isn't good and McSorley struggles with the new OC and the loss of 2017's weapons, particularly Barkley) to 11-1 or even 12-0 (the offense just keeps on ticking, McSorley makes a Heisman run and the D holds their own early and really gels as the season moves on).

I think there is more upside potential. But I'm definitely not as confident as last spring.

We'll find out come September, of course.

7 - 5 is very unlikely. Very unlikely.

 

[PeetzPoolBoy]

There's been a lot of good pub around recruiting, NFL combine, but this is getting out of hand IMHO.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-f...e-should-be-the-big-ten-front-runner-in-2018/

Don't get me wrong, PSU will be good and if things break right could be very good. But there are some potential big issues and I could easily see 3-5 losses this year if things break badly.

1) Height-challenged at wideout (except for JJ who is hurt), and an offense that depends on tall, muscular receivers. We are counting on true freshmen to come in and make a difference. To me this is the biggest potential problem on the team. Wideout has been a killer strength for PSU but it might not be this year.

2) Thin, undersized, inexperienced at DT. Again there is nice potential but there is also the potential that the single player we will miss the most from 2017 is Curtis Cothran.

3) Largely inexperienced at LB, and the experienced guys aren't exactly all-B1G caliber players. Again, counting on big contributions from freshmen and redshirt freshmen. Franklin yesterday went on at length about how they have no idea who is going to play in the middle and won't know until late in preseason practice. I don't consider that good news because that position leads the defense.

4) Inexperienced and thin at running back. Miles didn't get the carries he would have normally gotten as backup last year because Franklin was trying to maximize Barkley's Heisman chances. I'm REALLY glad they have Mark Allen.

The problem isn't that they don't have athletes. The problem is that it will be a ton of young players suddenly inheriting a lot of responsibility and pressure, and when the chips are down, you don't know how they'll react. You don't know who the playmakers are going to be.

Obviously there are plenty of reasons for optimism too. McSorley is McSorley and if he's healthy, by the time he's done everybody will agree he's the best ever to play the position at PSU. If the OL makes their big leap and actually becomes one of the best units in the B10 -- with McSorley and Miles that offense could be unstoppable and could cover the D while the D is getting settled in.

Anyway I couldn't be more excited about the team and the program, everything. But they don't deserve anybody's prediction that they're ready to win the B10, not with Ohio State and Wisconsin out there, Iowa and MSU probably improved, and Michigan due for a big bounceback this year.

 

[michnittlion]

7 - 5 is very unlikely. Very unlikely.

Sure, it's unlikely. But if we go 3-2 in September (lose to OSU and gag one of our road games), 7-5 is on the table.

And a 3-2 start isn't impossible if McSorley struggles early combined with a D that's short on age and experience.

Call that pessimism if you will. It's just a scenario that I see possible, whereas I didn't see ANY chance of any sort of similar scenario in 2017.

 

[Howie'81]

Sure, it's unlikely. But if we go 3-2 in September (lose to OSU and gag one of our road games), 7-5 is on the table.

And a 3-2 start isn't impossible if McSorley struggles early combined with a D that's short on age and experience.

Call that pessimism if you will. It's just a scenario that I see possible, whereas I didn't see ANY chance of any sort of similar scenario in 2017.

This team WILL NOT be 7 - 5 unless an earthquake swallows the team bus. 'nuff said.

 

[psuro]

We. Are. Doomed.

 

[Grant Green]

There's been a lot of good pub around recruiting, NFL combine, but this is getting out of hand IMHO.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-f...e-should-be-the-big-ten-front-runner-in-2018/

Don't get me wrong, PSU will be good and if things break right could be very good. But there are some potential big issues and I could easily see 3-5 losses this year if things break badly.

1) Height-challenged at wideout (except for JJ who is hurt), and an offense that depends on tall, muscular receivers. We are counting on true freshmen to come in and make a difference. To me this is the biggest potential problem on the team. Wideout has been a killer strength for PSU but it might not be this year.

2) Thin, undersized, inexperienced at DT. Again there is nice potential but there is also the potential that the single player we will miss the most from 2017 is Curtis Cothran.

3) Largely inexperienced at LB, and the experienced guys aren't exactly all-B1G caliber players. Again, counting on big contributions from freshmen and redshirt freshmen. Franklin yesterday went on at length about how they have no idea who is going to play in the middle and won't know until late in preseason practice. I don't consider that good news because that position leads the defense.

4) Inexperienced and thin at running back. Miles didn't get the carries he would have normally gotten as backup last year because Franklin was trying to maximize Barkley's Heisman chances. I'm REALLY glad they have Mark Allen.

The problem isn't that they don't have athletes. The problem is that it will be a ton of young players suddenly inheriting a lot of responsibility and pressure, and when the chips are down, you don't know how they'll react. You don't know who the playmakers are going to be.

Obviously there are plenty of reasons for optimism too. McSorley is McSorley and if he's healthy, by the time he's done everybody will agree he's the best ever to play the position at PSU. If the OL makes their big leap and actually becomes one of the best units in the B10 -- with McSorley and Miles that offense could be unstoppable and could cover the D while the D is getting settled in.

Anyway I couldn't be more excited about the team and the program, everything. But they don't deserve anybody's prediction that they're ready to win the B10, not with Ohio State and Wisconsin out there, Iowa and MSU probably improved, and Michigan due for a big bounceback this year.

3-5 losses? Wow. I have to disagree there. We get OSU, MSU, Iowa, and UW all at home with a bye between OSU and MSU. Getting UM on the road the week after Iowa is tough. 3 losses is the max.

Rahne is my big question mark. Can he follow up a very nice bowl performance, or will there be a drop off from JoMo?

I think the OL will be improved and the running game won't drop off much. Teams won't be coming in and selling out to stop Barkely.

Not too worried about defense. Seems like there are always a few guys who unexpectedly step it up.

 

[michnittlion]

This team WILL NOT be 7 - 5 unless an earthquake swallows the team bus. 'nuff said.

You're a fan of a Top 10 ranked team who sees a 5+ loss team as ABSOLUTELY impossible.

OK, fair enough.

There were probably some Florida State fans who said the same thing 365 days ago about their team.

There were probably some Notre Dame fans who said the same thing 730 days ago about their team.

There were probably some Auburn fans who said the same thing 1095 days ago about their team.

There were probably some South Carolina fans who said the same thing 1460 days ago about their team.

 

[joeparules]

There's been a lot of good pub around recruiting, NFL combine, but this is getting out of hand IMHO.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-f...e-should-be-the-big-ten-front-runner-in-2018/

Don't get me wrong, PSU will be good and if things break right could be very good. But there are some potential big issues and I could easily see 3-5 losses this year if things break badly.

1) Height-challenged at wideout (except for JJ who is hurt), and an offense that depends on tall, muscular receivers. We are counting on true freshmen to come in and make a difference. To me this is the biggest potential problem on the team. Wideout has been a killer strength for PSU but it might not be this year.

2) Thin, undersized, inexperienced at DT. Again there is nice potential but there is also the potential that the single player we will miss the most from 2017 is Curtis Cothran.

3) Largely inexperienced at LB, and the experienced guys aren't exactly all-B1G caliber players. Again, counting on big contributions from freshmen and redshirt freshmen. Franklin yesterday went on at length about how they have no idea who is going to play in the middle and won't know until late in preseason practice. I don't consider that good news because that position leads the defense.

4) Inexperienced and thin at running back. Miles didn't get the carries he would have normally gotten as backup last year because Franklin was trying to maximize Barkley's Heisman chances. I'm REALLY glad they have Mark Allen.

The problem isn't that they don't have athletes. The problem is that it will be a ton of young players suddenly inheriting a lot of responsibility and pressure, and when the chips are down, you don't know how they'll react. You don't know who the playmakers are going to be.

Obviously there are plenty of reasons for optimism too. McSorley is McSorley and if he's healthy, by the time he's done everybody will agree he's the best ever to play the position at PSU. If the OL makes their big leap and actually becomes one of the best units in the B10 -- with McSorley and Miles that offense could be unstoppable and could cover the D while the D is getting settled in.

Anyway I couldn't be more excited about the team and the program, everything. But they don't deserve anybody's prediction that they're ready to win the B10, not with Ohio State and Wisconsin out there, Iowa and MSU probably improved, and Michigan due for a big bounceback this year.

 

[NedFromYork]

Trace + A Lot of Talent = 1-2 losses tops.

 

[SR108]

There's been a lot of good pub around recruiting, NFL combine, but this is getting out of hand IMHO.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-f...e-should-be-the-big-ten-front-runner-in-2018/

Don't get me wrong, PSU will be good and if things break right could be very good. But there are some potential big issues and I could easily see 3-5 losses this year if things break badly.

1) Height-challenged at wideout (except for JJ who is hurt), and an offense that depends on tall, muscular receivers. We are counting on true freshmen to come in and make a difference. To me this is the biggest potential problem on the team. Wideout has been a killer strength for PSU but it might not be this year.

2) Thin, undersized, inexperienced at DT. Again there is nice potential but there is also the potential that the single player we will miss the most from 2017 is Curtis Cothran.

3) Largely inexperienced at LB, and the experienced guys aren't exactly all-B1G caliber players. Again, counting on big contributions from freshmen and redshirt freshmen. Franklin yesterday went on at length about how they have no idea who is going to play in the middle and won't know until late in preseason practice. I don't consider that good news because that position leads the defense.

4) Inexperienced and thin at running back. Miles didn't get the carries he would have normally gotten as backup last year because Franklin was trying to maximize Barkley's Heisman chances. I'm REALLY glad they have Mark Allen.

The problem isn't that they don't have athletes. The problem is that it will be a ton of young players suddenly inheriting a lot of responsibility and pressure, and when the chips are down, you don't know how they'll react. You don't know who the playmakers are going to be.

Obviously there are plenty of reasons for optimism too. McSorley is McSorley and if he's healthy, by the time he's done everybody will agree he's the best ever to play the position at PSU. If the OL makes their big leap and actually becomes one of the best units in the B10 -- with McSorley and Miles that offense could be unstoppable and could cover the D while the D is getting settled in.

Anyway I couldn't be more excited about the team and the program, everything. But they don't deserve anybody's prediction that they're ready to win the B10, not with Ohio State and Wisconsin out there, Iowa and MSU probably improved, and Michigan due for a big bounceback this year.

Biggest reason for optimism is the potential of a dominating offensive line with quality playmakers on offense.

Biggest reason for pessimism is defensive tackle and linebacker questions.

 

[demlion]

There's been a lot of good pub around recruiting, NFL combine, but this is getting out of hand IMHO.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-f...e-should-be-the-big-ten-front-runner-in-2018/

Don't get me wrong, PSU will be good and if things break right could be very good. But there are some potential big issues and I could easily see 3-5 losses this year if things break badly.

1) Height-challenged at wideout (except for JJ who is hurt), and an offense that depends on tall, muscular receivers. We are counting on true freshmen to come in and make a difference. To me this is the biggest potential problem on the team. Wideout has been a killer strength for PSU but it might not be this year.

2) Thin, undersized, inexperienced at DT. Again there is nice potential but there is also the potential that the single player we will miss the most from 2017 is Curtis Cothran.

3) Largely inexperienced at LB, and the experienced guys aren't exactly all-B1G caliber players. Again, counting on big contributions from freshmen and redshirt freshmen. Franklin yesterday went on at length about how they have no idea who is going to play in the middle and won't know until late in preseason practice. I don't consider that good news because that position leads the defense.

4) Inexperienced and thin at running back. Miles didn't get the carries he would have normally gotten as backup last year because Franklin was trying to maximize Barkley's Heisman chances. I'm REALLY glad they have Mark Allen.

The problem isn't that they don't have athletes. The problem is that it will be a ton of young players suddenly inheriting a lot of responsibility and pressure, and when the chips are down, you don't know how they'll react. You don't know who the playmakers are going to be.

Obviously there are plenty of reasons for optimism too. McSorley is McSorley and if he's healthy, by the time he's done everybody will agree he's the best ever to play the position at PSU. If the OL makes their big leap and actually becomes one of the best units in the B10 -- with McSorley and Miles that offense could be unstoppable and could cover the D while the D is getting settled in.

Anyway I couldn't be more excited about the team and the program, everything. But they don't deserve anybody's prediction that they're ready to win the B10, not with Ohio State and Wisconsin out there, Iowa and MSU probably improved, and Michigan due for a big bounceback this year.

We just went through the same article from the opposite side of the optimism divide. LOL.

https://bwi.forums.rivals.com/threa...d-be-the-big-ten-front-runner-in-2018.206038/

 

[NittPicker]

Back-to-back 11 win seasons with good national publicity heading into the season is good. There's nothing wrong with optimism. As others have noted, every college team deals with players leaving yet it seems some here think inexperience at Penn State is somehow worse than inexperience at another school. I'm sure the coaching staff can handle it. Relax and enjoy the ride. Life's too short to obsess about whether or not some of our WRs are tall or muscular enough.

 

[The Spin Meister]

Schedule is really tough and gets so early. Only three OOC games, then Illinois followed by buckeyes. Thats really early to play a top team with our inexperienced team. And we have Iowa and Wisky along with the buckeyes, sparty, and mich u

And don't forget that perennial power, Spitt.

 

[bdgan]

App State 90%
@ Pitt 70%
Kent 99%
@ Ill 80%
OSU 40%
MSU 70%
@ Indy 80%
Iowa 70%
@ Mich 40%
Wisc 70%
@Rut 80%
MD 70%

That's 8-4 but I'm going with 9-3.

 

[Lion8286]

There's been a lot of good pub around recruiting, NFL combine, but this is getting out of hand IMHO.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-f...e-should-be-the-big-ten-front-runner-in-2018/

Don't get me wrong, PSU will be good and if things break right could be very good. But there are some potential big issues and I could easily see 3-5 losses this year if things break badly.

1) Height-challenged at wideout (except for JJ who is hurt), and an offense that depends on tall, muscular receivers. We are counting on true freshmen to come in and make a difference. To me this is the biggest potential problem on the team. Wideout has been a killer strength for PSU but it might not be this year.

2) Thin, undersized, inexperienced at DT. Again there is nice potential but there is also the potential that the single player we will miss the most from 2017 is Curtis Cothran.

3) Largely inexperienced at LB, and the experienced guys aren't exactly all-B1G caliber players. Again, counting on big contributions from freshmen and redshirt freshmen. Franklin yesterday went on at length about how they have no idea who is going to play in the middle and won't know until late in preseason practice. I don't consider that good news because that position leads the defense.

4) Inexperienced and thin at running back. Miles didn't get the carries he would have normally gotten as backup last year because Franklin was trying to maximize Barkley's Heisman chances. I'm REALLY glad they have Mark Allen.

The problem isn't that they don't have athletes. The problem is that it will be a ton of young players suddenly inheriting a lot of responsibility and pressure, and when the chips are down, you don't know how they'll react. You don't know who the playmakers are going to be.

Obviously there are plenty of reasons for optimism too. McSorley is McSorley and if he's healthy, by the time he's done everybody will agree he's the best ever to play the position at PSU. If the OL makes their big leap and actually becomes one of the best units in the B10 -- with McSorley and Miles that offense could be unstoppable and could cover the D while the D is getting settled in.

Anyway I couldn't be more excited about the team and the program, everything. But they don't deserve anybody's prediction that they're ready to win the B10, not with Ohio State and Wisconsin out there, Iowa and MSU probably improved, and Michigan due for a big bounceback this year.

I hate the off-season. Too much of this kind of stuff.

 

[SR108]

You're a fan of a Top 10 ranked team who sees a 5+ loss team as ABSOLUTELY impossible.

OK, fair enough.

There were probably some Florida State fans who said the same thing 365 days ago about their team.

There were probably some Notre Dame fans who said the same thing 730 days ago about their team.

There were probably some Auburn fans who said the same thing 1095 days ago about their team.

There were probably some South Carolina fans who said the same thing 1460 days ago about their team.

Bottom line question:

Are we to the point where we can reload like the big boys do?

We will find out in about five months.

 

[Woodpecker]

App State 90%
@ Pitt 70%
Kent 99%
@ Ill 80%
OSU 40%
MSU 70%
@ Indy 80%
Iowa 70%
@ Mich 40%
Wisc 70%
@Rut 80%
MD 70%

That's 8-4 but I'm going with 9-3.

What is your methodology to derive 8-4 from those probabilities?

 

[Lion8286]

What is your methodology to derive 8-4 from those probabilities?

bdgan math. Translation -> nonsense.

 

[Gitzit]

Here are my thoughts.
I agree the WR position could be the biggest worry. Johnson and Thompkins are good, but after that there are question marks. On the bright side we have a GREAT QB and an improved OL.
As far as the DT situation goes. The what seems to be a permanent move of buchholz to DE, and feeling he is not needed on the interior say's the staff feels good about the DT position in my mind. I have thought Shelton looks like a big time player, and I think the Buchholz move means the DT's are looking good.
I think this years team won't be as good as last years until the end of the season.

 

[Notsofastmyfriend21]

The expectations for this Blue vs White game are way out of hand...my hands, that is: Thank the Good Lord that good friends will be operating the tailgate grill and the menu! I'm a horrible cook.

 

[psualum10]

This thread is comical. Floor is 9-3. And I only give us about a 10-15% chance of that happening. 10-2 or 11-1 is extremely likely. Folks we lost Saquon Barkley. And we're replacing him with a 5-star who's averaged almost 7 ypc when he's touched the ball. We lost Daesean Hamilton. Except last I checked we lost Chris Godwin and everyone panicked ... and then Hamilton picked up the slack. We'll be fine. We're not relying on freshman starters at WR (not sure what OP is talking about). TE is the only drop off on offense we'll have and if Dalton/Friermuth/Bowers etc can't pick up the slack we'll just not be as reliant on TE as much this year which is fine since we have enough talent to play 2 RB or 4 WR sets.

Defense will take a step back but the funny thing was ... wasn't that the EXACT same line we came into last year saying? Everyone said the defense was going to be atrocious last year and every game would be 42-39. And then we had 2 shutouts in the first 3 games. We allowed over 21 ppg 3 times last year (and 3 of the 4 were to ranked teams). The front four will be fine. They're full of players who rotated in constantly last year. The secondary honestly will be fine. Yea we lose all 4 ... and we return two who could be All-Big Ten by end of year (Reid & Owuraiye). LBs will be the weak link of course but it's not like they literally have no one. Farmer has improved and Brooks will probably start up the middle at least beginning of year.

This team has not lost a home game in two years. Since November 21, 2015. ALL (except Michigan) of our hardest games are at home. Yet people think 7-5 will be possible? You all wanted to get to the point where PSU will reload instead of rebuild and guess what we're there. Stop acting like eeyore's now that we're where we wanted to be.

 

[ga.lion]

There's been a lot of good pub around recruiting, NFL combine, but this is getting out of hand IMHO.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-f...e-should-be-the-big-ten-front-runner-in-2018/

Don't get me wrong, PSU will be good and if things break right could be very good. But there are some potential big issues and I could easily see 3-5 losses this year if things break badly.

1) Height-challenged at wideout (except for JJ who is hurt), and an offense that depends on tall, muscular receivers. We are counting on true freshmen to come in and make a difference. To me this is the biggest potential problem on the team. Wideout has been a killer strength for PSU but it might not be this year.

2) Thin, undersized, inexperienced at DT. Again there is nice potential but there is also the potential that the single player we will miss the most from 2017 is Curtis Cothran.

3) Largely inexperienced at LB, and the experienced guys aren't exactly all-B1G caliber players. Again, counting on big contributions from freshmen and redshirt freshmen. Franklin yesterday went on at length about how they have no idea who is going to play in the middle and won't know until late in preseason practice. I don't consider that good news because that position leads the defense.

4) Inexperienced and thin at running back. Miles didn't get the carries he would have normally gotten as backup last year because Franklin was trying to maximize Barkley's Heisman chances. I'm REALLY glad they have Mark Allen.

The problem isn't that they don't have athletes. The problem is that it will be a ton of young players suddenly inheriting a lot of responsibility and pressure, and when the chips are down, you don't know how they'll react. You don't know who the playmakers are going to be.

Obviously there are plenty of reasons for optimism too. McSorley is McSorley and if he's healthy, by the time he's done everybody will agree he's the best ever to play the position at PSU. If the OL makes their big leap and actually becomes one of the best units in the B10 -- with McSorley and Miles that offense could be unstoppable and could cover the D while the D is getting settled in.

Anyway I couldn't be more excited about the team and the program, everything. But they don't deserve anybody's prediction that they're ready to win the B10, not with Ohio State and Wisconsin out there, Iowa and MSU probably improved, and Michigan due for a big bounceback this year.

I’m not worried about this team’s offense except replacing a quality receiving tightend. Sanders is a stud, healthy, and ready to rock and roll. The WR Corp including Shorter will be the best 3 man Corp ever at Penn State before season end. OL gets bigger and deeper. QB is special. Plenty of points. Defensive line will be better than most realize with lots of depth on the end. Defensive backfield will be solid despite losing 4 starters. LB play is the key to a winning defense and despite some early mistakes they will be fine. And then my guess is our punter ends up being our reliable field goal kicker as well. If so this is a 9 win team without many key injuries.

 

[demlion]

This thread is comical. Floor is 9-3. And I only give us about a 10-15% chance of that happening. 10-2 or 11-1 is extremely likely. Folks we lost Saquon Barkley. And we're replacing him with a 5-star who's averaged almost 7 ypc when he's touched the ball. We lost Daesean Hamilton. Except last I checked we lost Chris Godwin and everyone panicked ... and then Hamilton picked up the slack. We'll be fine. We're not relying on freshman starters at WR (not sure what OP is talking about). TE is the only drop off on offense we'll have and if Dalton/Friermuth/Bowers etc can't pick up the slack we'll just not be as reliant on TE as much this year which is fine since we have enough talent to play 2 RB or 4 WR sets.

Defense will take a step back but the funny thing was ... wasn't that the EXACT same line we came into last year saying? Everyone said the defense was going to be atrocious last year and every game would be 42-39. And then we had 2 shutouts in the first 3 games. We allowed over 21 ppg 3 times last year (and 3 of the 4 were to ranked teams). The front four will be fine. They're full of players who rotated in constantly last year. The secondary honestly will be fine. Yea we lose all 4 ... and we return two who could be All-Big Ten by end of year (Reid & Owuraiye). LBs will be the weak link of course but it's not like they literally have no one. Farmer has improved and Brooks will probably start up the middle at least beginning of year.

This team has not lost a home game in two years. Since November 21, 2015. ALL (except Michigan) of our hardest games are at home. Yet people think 7-5 will be possible? You all wanted to get to the point where PSU will reload instead of rebuild and guess what we're there. Stop acting like eeyore's now that we're where we wanted to be.

I'm as big a fan as anybody, but I evaluate whether we are "where we wanted to be" in the middle of the season or when it is over, not 4 days before the spring game.

I am not Eeyore. Be careful you do not become RutgersAl.

 

[bdgan]

What is your methodology to derive 8-4 from those probabilities?

Simple expected value calculation. If we win all the games we are favored we would finish 10-2 but that means we would have to win 3 out of 4 road games and beat everybody but OSU at home. No slip ups against Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan State, etc.. 9-3 makes sense to me. Better if Farmer, Parsons, Brooks, etc. exceed expectations at LB.

 

[tboyer]

When Paterno graduated this many really good players, you remember his schtick -- the following September he would moan and groan and make it sound like the team was a big underdog against Temple.

Well Franklin is not like that, he's almost always positive in his external communication (which I think is great, and the right way to coach). However, that means Franklin isn't going to give a lot of info out about his concerns. You have to read between the lines. That can lead fans (and less informed sportswriters) to draw the wrong conclusions.

 

[demlion]

Simple expected value calculation. If we win all the games we are favored we would finish 10-2 but that means we would have to win 3 out of 4 road games and beat everybody but OSU at home. No slip ups against Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan State, etc.. 9-3 makes sense to me. Better if Farmer, Parsons, Brooks, etc. exceed expectations at LB.

How do those expected values change if we lose to App State or blow out OSU?

 

[bdgan]

I agree the WR position could be the biggest worry.

Stevens should help. A lot of freshmen WRs make an impact with their athleticism. Blocking and winning the 50/50 balls is where the struggle. That's what I expect from Shorter.

We should be OK with Johnson, Thompkins, Hamler, Shorter, and Stevens. LB is the biggest worry. Not as many freshmen excel at that position.

 

[Bobpsu]

There's been a lot of good pub around recruiting, NFL combine, but this is getting out of hand IMHO.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-f...e-should-be-the-big-ten-front-runner-in-2018/

Don't get me wrong, PSU will be good and if things break right could be very good. But there are some potential big issues and I could easily see 3-5 losses this year if things break badly.

1) Height-challenged at wideout (except for JJ who is hurt), and an offense that depends on tall, muscular receivers. We are counting on true freshmen to come in and make a difference. To me this is the biggest potential problem on the team. Wideout has been a killer strength for PSU but it might not be this year.

2) Thin, undersized, inexperienced at DT. Again there is nice potential but there is also the potential that the single player we will miss the most from 2017 is Curtis Cothran.

3) Largely inexperienced at LB, and the experienced guys aren't exactly all-B1G caliber players. Again, counting on big contributions from freshmen and redshirt freshmen. Franklin yesterday went on at length about how they have no idea who is going to play in the middle and won't know until late in preseason practice. I don't consider that good news because that position leads the defense.

4) Inexperienced and thin at running back. Miles didn't get the carries he would have normally gotten as backup last year because Franklin was trying to maximize Barkley's Heisman chances. I'm REALLY glad they have Mark Allen.

The problem isn't that they don't have athletes. The problem is that it will be a ton of young players suddenly inheriting a lot of responsibility and pressure, and when the chips are down, you don't know how they'll react. You don't know who the playmakers are going to be.

Obviously there are plenty of reasons for optimism too. McSorley is McSorley and if he's healthy, by the time he's done everybody will agree he's the best ever to play the position at PSU. If the OL makes their big leap and actually becomes one of the best units in the B10 -- with McSorley and Miles that offense could be unstoppable and could cover the D while the D is getting settled in.

Anyway I couldn't be more excited about the team and the program, everything. But they don't deserve anybody's prediction that they're ready to win the B10, not with Ohio State and Wisconsin out there, Iowa and MSU probably improved, and Michigan due for a big bounceback this year.

Woe is me! It's all over!

 

[bdgan]

How do those expected values change if we lose to App State or blow out OSU?

scUM fans will abuse the crap out of us if we lose to App State. Our own fans will think the sky is falling and predict 7-5 best case.

I wouldn't be surprised if we beat O$U in a whiteout game. PSU is really tough in that environment so there's a chance. I'd be amazed if we blow them out. Fans will be talking B10 title if we win that game by 1 pt.

 

[ILLINOISLION]

Unless McSorely and Stevens collide in the backfield and give each other multi-game concussions, there is no way in hell this team loses 5 games.

Even if Witvoet came out of retirement and O’Neill pulled his usual anti-PSU stunts, there is no way in hell this team loses 5 games.

If this team goes 7-5, the entire coaching staff should be fired.....before the bowl game.

 

[LaJolla Lion]

DE's will be better IMO and will be a strength if all are healthy. Secondary recruiting has been very very good and while it sucks losing those guys, the DB's will be ok. LB's will be athletic, but can they play fast? Brown and Farmer have plenty of PT, but neither one was a natural LB so maybe they step up their game this year. PSU will still put up a ton of points that will allow the green LB's to grow up on the fly. You never know how the new guys will do until they strap on the pads and play, but I see a great QB, with a veteran OL group, and veteran WR group minus the TE. Outside of UM, every tough game is at home....so there is that as well. 9 wins is pretty realistic to me, possibly 8 or 10+ as well.

 

[Howie'81]

You're a fan of a Top 10 ranked team who sees a 5+ loss team as ABSOLUTELY impossible.

OK, fair enough.

There were probably some Florida State fans who said the same thing 365 days ago about their team.

There were probably some Notre Dame fans who said the same thing 730 days ago about their team.

There were probably some Auburn fans who said the same thing 1095 days ago about their team.

There were probably some South Carolina fans who said the same thing 1460 days ago about their team.

Won't happen. Highly unlikely.

 

[tboyer]

My only real quarrel was picking PSU to win the B1G. The favorite has got to be Ohio State, and the 2nd most likely is Wisconsin largely on the strength of being in the B1G West.

Obviously PSU is a top 10 program again, so we are discussing RELATIVE weaknesses in a program that overall is going to be physically too much for most of the teams on the schedule.

But at the top -- Ohio State, Michigan, MSU, Wisky and on a good day Iowa can be extremely physical, and if PSU has too much youth in the wrong spot ... what's the Paternoism, they're going to get punched in the nose.

You want to win the B10, you have to not get blown off the ball in the 3rd quarter at the Shoe after you've lost your best D-linemen. You have to be able to pass protect and run your offense against a top tier B10 defense after you've lost your left tackle.

That is the step that the PSU program still has to take, and it's gonna be a couple more years at least. I think fans would be well advised to keep their expectations from getting out of hand.

 

[bdgan]

DE's will be better IMO and will be a strength if all are healthy. Secondary recruiting has been very very good and while it sucks losing those guys, the DB's will be ok. LB's will be athletic, but can they play fast? Brown and Farmer have plenty of PT, but neither one was a natural LB so maybe they step up their game this year. PSU will still put up a ton of points that will allow the green LB's to grow up on the fly. You never know how the new guys will do until they strap on the pads and play, but I see a great QB, with a veteran OL group, and veteran WR group minus the TE. Outside of UM, every tough game is at home....so there is that as well. 9 wins is pretty realistic to me, possibly 8 or 10+ as well.

DE's will be better IMO and will be a strength if all are healthy. YES

Secondary recruiting has been very very good and while it sucks losing those guys, the DB's will be ok. AGREE

LB's will be athletic, but can they play fast? Brown and Farmer have plenty of PT, but neither one was a natural LB so maybe they step up their game this year. HOPE SO, BUT THEIR CONTRIBUTIONS HAVE BEEN MODEST SO FAR.

PSU will still put up a ton of points that will allow the green LB's to grow up on the fly. O$U COMES TO TOWN IN SEPTEMBER SO IT BETTER HAPPEN FAST.

9 wins is pretty realistic to me, possibly 8 or 10+ as well. AGREE WITH 9. 10 WOULD BE SPECIAL GIVEN THE LB SITUATION. ALSO UNKNOWN AT PK.

 

[Howie'81]

My only real quarrel was picking PSU to win the B1G. The favorite has got to be Ohio State, and the 2nd most likely is Wisconsin largely on the strength of being in the B1G West.

Obviously PSU is a top 10 program again, so we are discussing RELATIVE weaknesses in a program that overall is going to be physically too much for most of the teams on the schedule.

But at the top -- Ohio State, Michigan, MSU, Wisky and on a good day Iowa can be extremely physical, and if PSU has too much youth in the wrong spot ... what's the Paternoism, they're going to get punched in the nose.

You want to win the B10, you have to not get blown off the ball in the 3rd quarter at the Shoe after you've lost your best D-linemen. You have to be able to pass protect and run your offense against a top tier B10 defense after you've lost your left tackle.

That is the step that the PSU program still has to take, and it's gonna be a couple more years at least. I think fans would be well advised to keep their expectations from getting out of hand.

I think fans would be well advised to be very excited about this team. Every reason to be.

 

[Howie'81]

App State 90%
@ Pitt 70%
Kent 99%
@ Ill 80%
OSU 40%
MSU 70%
@ Indy 80%
Iowa 70%
@ Mich 40%
Wisc 70%
@Rut 80%
MD 70%

That's 8-4 but I'm going with 9-3.

I can't believe the Michigan idolatry that exists here. We clearly have a better thing going on right now and people still fear Michigan. I give PSU a 60 to 70 percent chance at least in that game.