Sun 3/15 is going to have a VERY interesting NCAA Selection Show!
Down Go #1 Baylor #2 Gonzaga #4 San Diego St!
- Thread starter ILLINOISLION
- Start date
I'm sure coach K and the dookies won't have to travel WEST of the Mississippi!
You can count on it.
Yup. Goes back to the thread this past week after we lost to Illinois. Kansas looks to be the best team and "maybe" a true elite team. Giving Kansas credit for being an "elite" team, that means there is just 1 "elite" team in college basketball this year. There are about 20 other teams who are "good" teams... not dominate... not elite.... but they are good teams. And unless we have a total collapse to the finish line, Penn State is one of those "good" teams. Depending on how the bracket falls. Placement in the bracket and potential match-ups is huge, I could definitely see us getting to the Sweet 16.
well Jesus I’d put sweet 16 as the floor. Anything less is a disappointment after seeing these guys this year. Even as a 4 seed we’d be the higher seeded team in the first 2 rounds.
Got to get MJones back at full health. Only then is a Sweet 16 or more is possible.
It's bracket & match-ups. I saw one bracket a few weeks ago that would have had Penn State playing Villanova in the 2nd round. I know at this point brackets are all hypothetical and are as useless as the NFL Mock Drafts before the Indy combine.... but point is that what if based on seeding & placements the 2nd round game is against a team like Villanova.... Making the Sweet 16 in that scenario would be tough.
Agree there don't seem to be many elite teams this year but I certainly don't see sweet 16 as a floor. There's a good chance we aren't even ranked in the top 16 if we lose to Indiana today.
KU is good, often very good, but they are NOT elite. There are no elite teams in the 2019-2020 season.
I'll agree that there are no dominate teams. Hard to tell how good they are. More parity in college basket than i can remember.
Adding De Sousa back will make them pretty darn good. They currently have the best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of the Kenpom era (last 19 seasons). Anyone is obviously beatable, but I feel like people are missing how good they are right now.
Could my youngest son's undergrad school, U of Dayton, be headed for a #1 seed???
UD is the only team that has not lost in regulation, with 2 losses both in OT to Kansas and Colorado. And UD is now on a 16 game win streak. That looks like a better resume than Gonzaga losing by 18 to UM and by 13 to BYU.
UD is the only team that has not lost in regulation, with 2 losses both in OT to Kansas and Colorado. And UD is now on a 16 game win streak. That looks like a better resume than Gonzaga losing by 18 to UM and by 13 to BYU.
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Gonzaga’s resume is much stronger than Dayton’s...Dayton’s ceiling is a 2 unless things really fall apart elsewhere.
it's not a clear win comparing body of work for Gonzaga at this point. Pomeroy actually has UD with a tougher strength of schedule than Gonzaga and I don't see big wins OOC on Gonzaga's resume. They have a decisive loss to Michigan. And if you are on a 20 game win streak to end the season, assuming UD wins out and wins their tournament (a big IF), that will count in UD's favor as well.
A #1 seed for UD could depend on whether or not the committee gives two #1 seeds to the B12, with Baylor and Kansas. I guess I'm rooting for UK to win their tournament as UD lost in OT to UK in an early season tournament.
GONZAGA REGULAR SEASON
vs ALST W 95-64
vs UAPB W 110-60
vs UND W 97-66
@ TA&M W 79-49
vs UTA W 72-66
vs CSB W 77-49
vs USM W 94-69
vs 11 ORE W 73-72
vs MICH L 82-64
vs TXSO W 101-62
@ 22 WASH W 83-76
@ 15 ARIZ W 84-80
vs UNC W 94-81
vs EWU W 112-77
vs DET W 93-72
@ PORT W 85-72
vs PEPP W 75-70
@ USD W 94-50
@ LMU W 87-62
vs SCU W 104-54
vs BYU W 92-69
vs PAC W 92-59
@ SCU W 87-72
@ SF W 83-79
vs LMU W 85-67
@ SMC W 90-60
@ PEPP W 89-77
vs SF W 71-54
@ 23 BYU L 91-78
DAYTON FLYERS REGULAR SEASON
vs INST W 86-81
vs CHSO W 90-61
vs OMA W 93-68
vs UG W 80-61
vs VT W 89-62
vs 4 KU L 90-84 (OT)
vs HB W 99-68
vs SMC W 78-68
vs DRKE W 78-47
vs UNT W 71-58
vs COLO L 78-76 (OT)
vs GRAM W 81-53
vs UNF W 77-59
@ LAS W 84-58
@ JOES W 80-67
vs MASS W 88-60
vs VCU W 79-65
@ SLU W 78-76
vs SBU W 86-60
@ RICH W 87-79
@ DUQ W 73-69
vs FORW 70-56
vs SLU W 71-65
vs URI W 81-67
@Mass Lion W 71-63
@ VCU W 66-61
vs DUQ W 80-70
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Keep in mind that how you finish isn't a selection criteria used by the committee, so the winning streak won't help them.
Gonzaga is 5-2 against Quad 1, with 6 of those 7 games being "high" quad 1 games...win at home over BYU (14), a win on a neutral over Oregon (19), and road wins over Arizona (9), St Mary's (31), and Washington (64). With Arizona sitting in the top 10 in the NET, a road win over them should be a huge win in the committee's eyes.
Dayton is 4-2 in Quad 1 games, however they lost both of their "high" quad 1 games, those Kansas and Colorado losses.
So, while both teams have comparable losses, Gonzaga has 4 wins that are better than Dayton's best win, and they won't play another game this season as tough as those 4 wins that Gonzaga already banked (though they can pick up 2-3 more quad 1 wins with the road game at Rhode Island, and potential A10 games with Rhode Island/Richmond). I guess it's possible for Dayton to pass them if Gonzaga lost their home game against San Diego, or took a bad loss in the WCC semi, but it would be tough unless Gonzaga really limps home.
I'm with you on the quad 1 wins, but Gonzaga's losses are not comparable to UD' losses. Gonzaga got basically blown out by Michigan. Whereas UD only has lost to 2 high quad 1 teams, and in OT both times. And UD was leading Kansas a good part of the game, only getting tied at the end of the game. And most now believe Kansas to be the overall #1 seed of the NCAA tournament.
The loss to UNLV by San Diego St. may put them out of the running for a #1 seed. So at this point it may be just Kansas, Baylor, Gonzaga, Dayton and Duke as possible #1's.
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Maybe I stated it incorrectly with calling Kansas "elite". IMO, they are the "closest to elite". If the Tourny started tomorrow, I believe Kansas would be the #1 overall seed and IMO, more imortantly the odds on money favorite by Vegas to win the whole thing. I think Vegas will have Kansas as the solid favorite with a pretty good drop off to the #2 team with best odds on the Vegas books.
The projected top 8 picks in the draft aren’t playing college ball. Put 2 of them on any of these teams and you’d have no parity again.
Based on what projection? Guys like Edwards and Obi should certainly be top 5 picks.
I agree if tomorrow. But I think Baylor-KU will probably meet again in the Big 12 Tournament and they’ll go 1-2 based on that game.
Gonzaga should stay a 1 in the west even with a loss.. They lost on the road to a ranked team without their best player and another starter.
SDSU lost at home to a average team, they will probably drop to the 2 line, but IMO that would be good for them. They could be the 2 in the West and play in LA compared to 1 in the East and have to possibly play Duke at MSG.
SDSU lost at home to a average team, they will probably drop to the 2 line, but IMO that would be good for them. They could be the 2 in the West and play in LA compared to 1 in the East and have to possibly play Duke at MSG.
Gonzaga has wins over Oregon, Arizona, and BYU, all were ranked and should be ranked at years end.
Dayton has played 2 ranked teams and lost both.
Dayton and SDSU are products of their conferences. SDSU should easily have had 3-4 losses by now including San Jose State, who they beat by 2.
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