Dow up over 1100 points in last two sessions!

NJPSU

Well-Known Member
May 29, 2001
43,409
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1
Up nearly 500 points again today!

Let’s Go Brandon!
 

KnightWhoSaysNit

Well-Known Member
Jul 19, 2010
8,343
8,145
1
Up nearly 500 points again today!

Let’s Go Brandon!

The stock market highs are only good if it is real growth. In other words, the valuations need to be adjusted for inflation. It is way, way too early for this, as I have noted many times here. Inflation has not worked its way through the economy yet.

The real issue isn't the market highs. It's the negative return on bonds. That says things are not as good as you think, as all we are doing is robbing one asset class to prop up another asset class.

And "propping" is exactly what is happening here. Many businesses should fail but are floating on easy money, i.e., negative real interest rates. They are going to get squeezed by inflation. Once the easy money ends then it will be a matter of choosing winners over losers. That's when investment gets difficult.

This Fed has decided to ignore controlling inflation, probably for political reasons. The market would not be anywhere near where it is if we had normalized interest rates. It's a house of cards being propped up through printed money. Real productivity is not in line with valuations.
 

franklinman

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Apr 5, 2011
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The stock market highs are only good if it is real growth. In other words, the valuations need to be adjusted for inflation. It is way, way too early for this, as I have noted many times here. Inflation has not worked its way through the economy yet.

The real issue isn't the market highs. It's the negative return on bonds. That says things are not as good as you think, as all we are doing is robbing one asset class to prop up another asset class.

And "propping" is exactly what is happening here. Many businesses should fail but are floating on easy money, i.e., negative real interest rates. They are going to get squeezed by inflation. Once the easy money ends then it will be a matter of choosing winners over losers. That's when investment gets difficult.

This Fed has decided to ignore controlling inflation, probably for political reasons. The market would not be anywhere near where it is if we had normalized interest rates. It's a house of cards being propped up through printed money. Real productivity is not in line with valuations.
There are always been stock winners and losers, nothing different today. Just let it play out.
 

NJPSU

Well-Known Member
May 29, 2001
43,409
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And we're still below where we were on Nov 24th. It took 1100 pts to recover just part of what we lost over the prior week.

Let's Go Brandon!
We are only 1% off all time highs. Market is up almost 35% since the election.
 
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HartfordLlion

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Sep 28, 2001
21,858
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Up nearly 500 points again today!

Let’s Go Brandon!
'
LOL. if you idiot Dems wouldn't be running around with your hair on fire with every Covid variant the market would have never sold off like it did.

It's just a matter of time before the markets really dive when the Fed starts talking away the punch bowl next year. It's already happening in the casino called crypto.
 

NJPSU

Well-Known Member
May 29, 2001
43,409
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I hope you are taking advantage of this Year End Rally that going on.
They would rather complain about spending an extra $3 to fill up their tank. Meanwhile guys like us are getting rich in this market.
 

bdgan

Well-Known Member
May 29, 2008
60,328
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Yep unemployment down, GDP soaring, stock market near all time highs. Joe is doing a hell of job with the economy.
As long as he keeps throwing a few extra trillion at it each year and he gets the fed to buy bonds and keep interest rates near 0.
 

bdgan

Well-Known Member
May 29, 2008
60,328
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'
LOL. if you idiot Dems wouldn't be running around with your hair on fire with every Covid variant the market would have never sold off like it did.
The economy would never have tanked like it did if the government hadn't shut much of it down.
 

KnightWhoSaysNit

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Jul 19, 2010
8,343
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The real issue is this: What would valuations be with inflation controlled at 2%.

That would have taken positive real rates, and this market would be no where near where it is.

The market was propped up by the corrupt use of the word "transitory."
 

NJPSU

Well-Known Member
May 29, 2001
43,409
15,092
1
The real issue is this: What would valuations be with inflation controlled at 2%.

That would have taken positive real rates, and this market would be no where near where it is.

The market was propped up by the corrupt use of the word "transitory."
We are 10 - 12 years into a bull market and the “transitory” debate didn’t exist for 99% of it.
 

NJPSU

Well-Known Member
May 29, 2001
43,409
15,092
1
The stock market highs are only good if it is real growth. In other words, the valuations need to be adjusted for inflation. It is way, way too early for this, as I have noted many times here. Inflation has not worked its way through the economy yet.

The real issue isn't the market highs. It's the negative return on bonds. That says things are not as good as you think, as all we are doing is robbing one asset class to prop up another asset class.

And "propping" is exactly what is happening here. Many businesses should fail but are floating on easy money, i.e., negative real interest rates. They are going to get squeezed by inflation. Once the easy money ends then it will be a matter of choosing winners over losers. That's when investment gets difficult.

This Fed has decided to ignore controlling inflation, probably for political reasons. The market would not be anywhere near where it is if we had normalized interest rates. It's a house of cards being propped up through printed money. Real productivity is not in line with valuations.
 

KnightWhoSaysNit

Well-Known Member
Jul 19, 2010
8,343
8,145
1

I wouldn't disagree with anything he says, but the topic is about valuations. In my view, without the "benefit" of inflation, the market is at least 50% overvalued. I would expect prices to rise to match asset valuations as the most politically expedient way to deal with rising debt. Write if off through the inflation tax.

We don't even have a leveling of debt/GDP, so all of the nonsense you post thanking Brandon when markets inflate is just unsubstantiated fluff. Fact is, they've printed and distributed so much cash that it has had no place to go. When real yields on long bonds are grossly negative, and not much above cash, we are in very dangerous territory.

Again, print enough cash and there is no place for it to go. The world is unstable now with Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea flexing their muscles. Emerging markets would otherwise be attracting that capital. That's what I would do if it were not for the risk.
 

NJPSU

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May 29, 2001
43,409
15,092
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I wouldn't disagree with anything he says, but the topic is about valuations. In my view, without the "benefit" of inflation, the market is at least 50% overvalued. I would expect prices to rise to match asset valuations as the most politically expedient way to deal with rising debt. Write if off through the inflation tax.

We don't even have a leveling of debt/GDP, so all of the nonsense you post thanking Brandon when markets inflate is just unsubstantiated fluff. Fact is, they've printed and distributed so much cash that it has had no place to go. When real yields on long bonds are grossly negative, and not much above cash, we are in very dangerous territory.

Again, print enough cash and there is no place for it to go. The world is unstable now with Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea flexing their muscles. Emerging markets would otherwise be attracting that capital. That's what I would do if it were not for the risk.
The world isn’t any more unstable now than it was when Trump was threatening foreign nations over Twitter while taking a dump. Trump’s own Generals thought Trump had made the world so unstable they had to call our enemies to assure them he wouldn’t blow up the world.
 

KnightWhoSaysNit

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Jul 19, 2010
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The world isn’t any more unstable now than it was when Trump was threatening foreign nations over Twitter while taking a dump. Trump’s own Generals thought Trump had made the world so unstable they had to call our enemies to assure them he wouldn’t blow up the world.

China wasn't threatening Taiwan. And Russia wasn't amassing troops on the Ukrainian border.

They would fear Trump, whether he is mentally stable or not. What we have now is incompetent weakness. Even Biden's own party want to take the nuclear football away from him. They know he has dementia.

Conflict will ignite during the Biden Administration, because this group doesn't have any guts. And it just might be WW3. The Dems think they can get the Taliban to change by emboldening them. Same with Iran.

Every policy so far has been wrong. We have growing inflation, crime, trade deficits, budget deficits, spiraling debt/GDP, lost international respect, and now international threats of war as a result of installing a man that cannot complete a thought long enough to complete a sentence. The world is watching this. They are laughing at a country that hampers its own clean natural gas production while begging for more dirty oil out of OPEC.

Your defense of this guy indicates that you are more of an ideologue than an American. Your party is not going to create Utopia by dreaming about it. We can edge closer through sound policies, but this group has none. Not one. And that in and of itself is unprecedented. Very scary. There isn't a single thing they have done right, other than appease a bunch of special interest groups through Affirmative Action hires at the highest positions. Again, another idiotic, political move that creates damage.

Huge negative real interest rates. That is a sign of extreme economic weakness, not strength. That should have been very brief. (Remember "flatten the curve" before Dem governors started shutting things down.)

This administration has prolonged bad economic policies. The longer we stay this way the worse it gets.
 
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franklinman

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The economy would never have tanked like it did if the government hadn't shut much of it down.
And pray tell, how were you going to force people to go to work, at that time NOBODY had any information on this virus, the govt didn't shut it down, the worker did ?
 
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Sullivan

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Nov 24, 2001
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We are only 1% off all time highs. Market is up almost 35% since the election.

Yet, we are only up 10% since Biden took office. Given the Trump vaccine, and businesses were allowed to reopen in 2021, most people would expect the market to increase.

The market increased despite Biden, not because of him.
 
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bdgan

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May 29, 2008
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And pray tell, how were you going to force people to go to work, at that time NOBODY had any information on this virus, the govt didn't shut it down, the worker did ?
Workers shut down the economy? Really? Filthy Frank, you should really try to get out of your basement once in a while.
 
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NJPSU

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May 29, 2001
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China wasn't threatening Taiwan. And Russia wasn't amassing troops on the Ukrainian border.

They would fear Trump, whether he is mentally stable or not. What we have now is incompetent weakness. Even Biden's own party want to take the nuclear football away from him. They know he has dementia.

Conflict will ignite during the Biden Administration, because this group doesn't have any guts. And it just might be WW3. The Dems think they can get the Taliban to change by emboldening them. Same with Iran.

Every policy so far has been wrong. We have growing inflation, crime, trade deficits, budget deficits, spiraling debt/GDP, lost international respect, and now international threats of war as a result of installing a man that cannot complete a thought long enough to complete a sentence. The world is watching this. They are laughing at a country that hampers its own clean natural gas production while begging for more dirty oil out of OPEC.

Your defense of this guy indicates that you are more of an ideologue than an American. Your party is not going to create Utopia by dreaming about it. We can edge closer through sound policies, but this group has none. Not one. And that in and of itself is unprecedented. Very scary. There isn't a single thing they have done right, other than appease a bunch of special interest groups through Affirmative Action hires at the highest positions. Again, another idiotic, political move that creates damage.

Huge negative real interest rates. That is a sign of extreme economic weakness, not strength. That should have been very brief. (Remember "flatten the curve" before Dem governors started shutting things down.)

This administration has prolonged bad economic policies. The longer we stay this way the worse it gets.
That’s total right wing propaganda. The fact of the matter was the world was a much more dangerous unstable place when the Orange turd was in power and running foreign policy based on his mood swings.
 

Sullivan

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Nov 24, 2001
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That’s total right wing propaganda. The fact of the matter was the world was a much more dangerous unstable place when the Orange turd was in power and running foreign policy based on his mood swings.

You're now calling Biden an orange turd?

And why did you capitalize orange?
 
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bdgan

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That’s total right wing propaganda. The fact of the matter was the world was a much more dangerous unstable place when the Orange turd was in power and running foreign policy based on his mood swings.
Propaganda? It's just a coincidence the Russia has now moved toward Ukraine? That China is testing hypersonic missiles? That North Korea is also testing weapons?
 

NJPSU

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May 29, 2001
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Propaganda? It's just a coincidence the Russia has now moved toward Ukraine? That China is testing hypersonic missiles? That North Korea is also testing weapons?
North Korea was testing weapons under Trump. Trump was doing Putin’s bidding for 4 years. Trump was terrified of the man. China testing missiles is a ridiculous nothing burger. China already has the capability to blow up the Earth.
 

NJPSU

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May 29, 2001
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Just reverse what he says and it suddenly becomes not only logical, but closer to the truth.

It's pure TDS when someone cannot talk about current events without fixating the whole response on Trump.
You guys have zero credibility on the topic because you use the same talking points everytime a Democrat is in the White House while completely ignoring the fact that Trump was Putin’s puppy for four years.
 

JR4PSU

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We are only 1% off all time highs. Market is up almost 35% since the election.
Not hard to do after the country had been shut down for so long. A monkey in office would have done just as well. Oh, wait, a monkey is what we have in office. My bad.
 

bdgan

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May 29, 2008
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You guys have zero credibility on the topic because you use the same talking points everytime a Democrat is in the White House while completely ignoring the fact that Trump was Putin’s puppy for four years.
Trump increased sanctions against Russia and armed Ukraine.

Obama told Russia he would have more flexibility after the election, allowed Russia to take Crimea, and sent blankets to Ukraine.

Now Biden is president and Russia has moved troops toward Ukraine.

Your analysis: Trump was Putin's puppy.

My analysis: You're a clueless lemming.
 
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LafayetteBear

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Dec 1, 2009
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Hey NJ: Get with it, man! The DJIA is up another 500 this morning!

Thank you, President Biden.