Lost in all the hubbub about the new scheduling format and our "rival" is the decision to go divisionless in 2024. Here's what that would have looked like over the past 9 years.
2014: No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 13 Wisconsin (unchanged)
2015: No. 5 Michigan State vs. No. 4 Iowa (unchanged)
2016: No. 7 Penn State vs. No. 6 Wisconsin -> No. 2 Ohio State replaces Wisconsin*
2017: No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Wisconsin (unchanged)
2018: No. 6 Ohio State vs. No. 21 Northwestern -> No. 7 Michigan replaces Northwestern*
2019: No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 8 Wisconsin (unchanged)*
2020: No. 4 Ohio State vs. No. 14 Northwestern (unchanged)
2021: No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 13 Iowa -> No. 7 Ohio State replaces Iowa*
2022: No. 2 Michigan vs. UR Purdue -> No. 4 Ohio State replaces Purdue*
*a rematch of regular season game in the CCG
Observations:
1. OSU and UM would have been a rematch 3 times. But if you go back to the previous 10 years, it would have hardly happened once (RichRod and Brady Hoke years when UM was down)
2. 5 of the 9 years features rematches (as just stated, 3 were OSU/UM). This is interesting because it means that half the time, when two teams play during the regular season, one knocks the other out of a top ranking. When they don't play, both teams can elevate higher in the rankings.
3. By adding USC, you've upped your perennially elite teams and put another key team in the mix. In a divisionless Big Ten, OSU would have been to 8 of 9 CCGs, Wisconsin 3, Michigan 3, and PSU/NW/MSU/Iowa one each. In a divisionless Big Ten though, those western participants aren't likely to have such unscathed records heading into the final weekend. NW and Iowa and Wisconsin playing the same strength of schedule as OSU/UM/PSU/USC means that those west frontrunners are likely to have lower records.
From a PSU lens, we are glad to have more equal strength of schedule as the rest of the Big Ten. The Big Ten East logjam has hurt us as much as anyone else. But we still have to beat a few top 15 teams to have a special season; that doesn't change.
The playoff starting in 2024 also makes this less relevant. All of these re-imagined games would have had seeding impact for the first round bye. And for first round home games. However, most losers would have made it into the 12-team playoff no matter what (2014, 2020 perhaps could have seen someone bounced from a first round road game and out of the playoff...)
2014: No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 13 Wisconsin (unchanged)
2015: No. 5 Michigan State vs. No. 4 Iowa (unchanged)
2016: No. 7 Penn State vs. No. 6 Wisconsin -> No. 2 Ohio State replaces Wisconsin*
2017: No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Wisconsin (unchanged)
2018: No. 6 Ohio State vs. No. 21 Northwestern -> No. 7 Michigan replaces Northwestern*
2019: No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 8 Wisconsin (unchanged)*
2020: No. 4 Ohio State vs. No. 14 Northwestern (unchanged)
2021: No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 13 Iowa -> No. 7 Ohio State replaces Iowa*
2022: No. 2 Michigan vs. UR Purdue -> No. 4 Ohio State replaces Purdue*
*a rematch of regular season game in the CCG
Observations:
1. OSU and UM would have been a rematch 3 times. But if you go back to the previous 10 years, it would have hardly happened once (RichRod and Brady Hoke years when UM was down)
2. 5 of the 9 years features rematches (as just stated, 3 were OSU/UM). This is interesting because it means that half the time, when two teams play during the regular season, one knocks the other out of a top ranking. When they don't play, both teams can elevate higher in the rankings.
3. By adding USC, you've upped your perennially elite teams and put another key team in the mix. In a divisionless Big Ten, OSU would have been to 8 of 9 CCGs, Wisconsin 3, Michigan 3, and PSU/NW/MSU/Iowa one each. In a divisionless Big Ten though, those western participants aren't likely to have such unscathed records heading into the final weekend. NW and Iowa and Wisconsin playing the same strength of schedule as OSU/UM/PSU/USC means that those west frontrunners are likely to have lower records.
From a PSU lens, we are glad to have more equal strength of schedule as the rest of the Big Ten. The Big Ten East logjam has hurt us as much as anyone else. But we still have to beat a few top 15 teams to have a special season; that doesn't change.
The playoff starting in 2024 also makes this less relevant. All of these re-imagined games would have had seeding impact for the first round bye. And for first round home games. However, most losers would have made it into the 12-team playoff no matter what (2014, 2020 perhaps could have seen someone bounced from a first round road game and out of the playoff...)