Sports aren't like Petri Dish experiments - - - - where one can isolate a single variable and "see what happens".
But, that doesn't mean one can't either do a detailed examination, or limit things to a cursory examination..... and the more detailed the examination - the more predictive and causative the results will be.
(And, FWIW, when I "say shit", it is generally done only after taking on as extensive and as detailed an analysis as possible)
For two years, PSU's pass game generated most of their explosive plays from situations where they created "conflict" in the opposing defenses.
I have no idea what proprietary labels PSU uses to denote their schemes.... but the most effective schemes, that PSU employed frequently under Moorhead (using generic terms of my own derivation) were:
1) Levels - - - - Multiple (usually three, sometimes two) level routes to the same side of the field: Creating assignment conflict against either two and three deep zones, or a series of match-ups for the QB against man defenses - which allowed the QB to pick the most favorable matchup.
2) Outside switch - - - - Generally run from the "2 wide" side of the formation (often a TE and a Flanker), that is schematically a version of a "rub route" - but run vertically instead of horizontally. A very favorable scheme against man-under defenses with either two-deep or ace coverage.
3) Slot fade - - - - one of their most often utilized schemes against man-under defenses, designed to match up a top-tier receiver against the opponents 3rd or 4th cover DB.
These were, for two years, the most often-employed (and most successful), downfield pass schemes for PSU.
In any event, and whatever Moorhead called them, they were all schemes with a similar goal - - - - - create conflict.
Now... 2018:
Just one set of data - from THE VERY FIRST GAME of the year (ASU):
Penn State (McSorley) threw 13 passes that traveled 10+ yards downfield.
What schemes did they employ?
I'll list them from "longest" to "shortest" throws (underlining those that were completed passes):
46 yards downfield: End-of-half Hail Mary
46 yards: Deep post to Slot Receiver
40 yards: Go route to single side receiver (where single-side receiver = guy lined up alone on one side of a 3X1 or 2X1 formation)
35 yards: Go route to single side receiver
35 yards: Go route to outside receiver in 2 by 2 set
29 yards: Go route to single side receiver
29 yards: Deep out …. this was a school yard play off of a McSorley scramble where he found the TE (Holland) lost in coverage and wide open
21 yards: Go route to single side receiver
17 yards: Deep out to slot receiver.
This was the "levels" scheme outlined above.
15 yard: Slot post in red zone for TD
13 yard: Short post off of the RPO
12 yard: Out to single side receiver
10 yard: Crossing route
So... of those 13 10+ yard downfield throws.....
There was ONE Levels scheme.... and zero outside switch routes, and zero slot fades.
Instead, there were a boatload of Go Routes (almost all to the single-side receiver in 3X1 or 2X1 formations)
From Day 1, Rahne dramatically changed the PSU downfield pass game - that had been so effective for two years.
Why? IDK?
But it was not a one-game anomaly.... This continued throughout the year (along with the near removal of RPO passes.... until the last several games).
I could go through this shit for every game this year (breaking these things down is just something I've always done.. other folks collect stamps.
IDK)…. and the plot of the story remains the same.
Why did he do that? IDK?
But it surely would seem to be more than coincident with a significant decline in the productivity of the pass game.
Was there any congruent benefit gained? To offset the dropoff in the downfield pass game?
There surely would not appear to be (aside from perhaps a lessening of TFLs in the run game - which MIGHT be attributable to speeding up the RPO decision process. IDK, but I think those two are likely related).
In composite - IMO (backed by extensive and detailed analysis of each game) - Rahne took away from the PSU offense exactly what Moorhead had installed - - - - - - the ability to consistently put the opposing defense in conflict, thereby generating explosive plays.
In the terms I used at the time, he made the offense "less scary"... which, IMO , was a very bad thing
Whatever else transpired, under Rahne the PSU offense (especially the downfield pass offense) changed dramatically. From Day 1. Without question.
Without the ability to "petri-dish" the thing, no one could say with scientific certainty what the impact of those changes were - but I think reasonable intelligent observation would indicate a strong likelihood that the net impact was not positive.
I hope that Rahne leads a wonderfully effective offense next year (since I can't see anyone else running the 2019 PSU offense), and he will have to - if Penn State is going to reach the levels of success it is capable of.
But I also can't un-see what he has done this far.