Could someone please explain the Win Probability % on espn?

[BobPSU92]

Is it online voting reported in real time?

 

[katchthis]

It's reported in surreal time......
If you played a game 100 times , what percentage of the time you would win, if Salvador Dali was your QB

 

[BobPSU92]

It's reported in surreal time......
If you played a gam 100 times , what percentage of the time you would win, if Salvador Dali was your QB

Interesting. Here I had assumed that espn had taken inanity to a new level. My apologies for not appreciating their groundbreaking sophistication.

 

[anon_xdc8rmuek44eq]

It's reported in surreal time......
If you played a gam 100 times , what percentage of the time you would win, if Salvador Dali was your QB

 

[NittanyLionFan]

I assume that it is a conditional probability based on score/possession/position and the ESPN FPI.

 

[NittanyLionFan]

...and, what is up with the FPI? It currently has Ohio State at #2, above Oklahoma. I know that it is relatively early in the season and there are only so many data points, but that seems flipped at best. Seems crazy.

 

[ILLINOISLION]

It's 100% minus the loss probability percentage!

 

[BobPSU92]

It's 100% minus the loss probability!

 

[SmithtonLion]

I assume that it is a conditional probability based on score/possession/position and the ESPN FPI.

I hate to say it, but......obviously! That's exactly right.

 

[fairfaxlion2]

Its interesting but useless

 

[UncleLar]

Is it online voting reported in real time?

They likely use a methodology similar to what sabermetrics does for win expectancy in baseball. If so, it would be based on score, possession, field position, down and probably distance, and time remaining. But without a link to the specific metric that you are referencing, it's not possible to confirm one way or the other.

 

[91Joe95]

It's 100% minus the loss probability percentage!

As long as you can still get more than 100% it's good.

 

[91Joe95]

They likely use a methodology similar to what sabermetrics does for win expectancy in baseball. If so, it would be based on score, possession, field position, down and probably distance, and time remaining. But without a link to the specific metric that you are referencing, it's not possible to confirm one way or the other.

You just made that up.

 

[ILLINOISLION]

As long as you can still get more than 100% it's good.

I learned all this probability / percentage stuff while figuring out my future (or lack thereof) as a McAndrew Board Moderator!

 

[TenerHallTerror]

it has to do with the Pythagorean Theorem . . .

 

[BobPSU92]

it has to do with the Pythagorean Theorem . . .

Big words. You must have made that up.

 

[TenerHallTerror]

Big words. You must have made that up.

I divided my eigenvalues by my Fourier transforms

yes, that is a sex joke