CBS Sports Projects Penn State to make the biggest jump tonight - up to #6

[NittanyLion15]

College Football Playoff Rankings prediction: Penn State, Oklahoma make significant jumps

#6 - Penn State
Now that Minnesota has a loss, the committee can go back to ranking Penn State where it belongs based on its entire season and not one game. The committee overreacted last week by dropping the Nittany Lions behind the Pac-12 teams, even though their resume is clearly better. The problem was that Minnesota's resume was not better than the Pac-12 teams and the committee was too eager to honor a less than decisive head-to-head result. Of course, after this week's game with Ohio State, Penn State will either be the top-ranked one-loss team or no longer part of the playoff discussion. Last week: 9

Although I don't think we're playing our best football right now, and the game this weekend has the potential to get ugly.... The rankings are supposed to be about the entirety of what you've accomplished.

I think CBS is spot on with their prediction, however i'll be shocked if its where we end up later tonight. If we're only talking about getting into the four team playoff it's all irrelevant. If we're talking about the potential for Penn State to get into a new year's six, jumping 3 spots after a shaky win over Indiana would be clutch for our chances at the Rose.

We shall see

 

[cjrugger]

I don't understand why we would jump the Pac 12 teams. Of course, I don't understand why we fell below them to begin with

 

[HunterPSU96]

Ridiculous for us to drop below the pac 12 teams in the first place based on resume. Regardless of where PSU is ranked tonight if they beat Ohio State and win out, they are in. Dont see it happening though considering how bad our defense has been on top of lack of consistent WR play on O.

 

[odshowtime]

This is all for osu's benefit.

 

[cramx3]

I don't understand why we would jump the Pac 12 teams. Of course, I don't understand why we fell below them to begin with

Winning over 7-3 Indiana has to be more impressive than wins over 4-6 Arizona/UCLA last week. Granted, i don't understand why we dropped behind them in the first place either.

 

[NittanyLion15]

Winning over 7-3 Indiana has to be more impressive than wins over 4-6 Arizona/UCLA last week. Granted, i don't understand why we dropped behind them in the first place either.

Because 8-0 Minnesota defeated 8-0 Penn State, and ranking the Gophers behind us after they just won the head to head would have been ridiculous.

So instead of jumping the Goophs all the way up to #4 or #5, they dropped Penn State further than they should have

 

[MohawkLion]

Only real reason is timing of losses. PSU’s loss was recent. Utah’s was 7 weeks ago. Oregon was week 1.

But if the selection committee is doing their job, they should take into factor the ridiculous barrage of teams PSU has had to deal with in the last 6 weeks or so. I’d like to give them more credit for the trap game potential of playing MSU on the road, but my god the Spartans are absolutely dreadful this year.

 

[Texas Lion]

actually makes a ton of sense. the committee had no choice but to have Penn State below Minnesota.

I also believe they have workings of another in that room as well. ie....moving PSU up to 6 helps psu in case they beat OSU and if osu beats psu then it makes them look stronger as well.

this whole thing is still a mess, but now because it is people we can have conspiracy theories.

 

[AWS1022]

Only real reason is timing of losses. PSU’s loss was recent. Utah’s was 7 weeks ago. Oregon was week 1.

But if the selection committee is doing their job, they should take into factor the ridiculous barrage of teams PSU has had to deal with in the last 6 weeks or so. I’d like to give them more credit for the trap game potential of playing MSU on the road, but my god the Spartans are absolutely dreadful this year.

It’s kind of amazing that with this great committee solution for college football, they still follow so many of the old “rules” of voting. Early losses are better should not be a thing...sometimes early losses are worse because even though your team isn’t in mid season form yet, neither is the team you lost to. A loss to Minny early in the season would have been much worse than when we lost to them...they played like crap early on.

 

[mrmk5110]

Oregon and Utah have combined to play 1 currently ranked team this season, and that was an L. PSU has played 3, with 2 wins.

PSU's resume is far better than both. Will be interested to see what they do with them. At the very least PSU should be ahead of Utah with Utah's bad loss to USC.

 

[Texas Lion]

Oregon and Utah have combined to play 1 currently ranked team this season, and that was an L. PSU has played 3, with 2 wins.

PSU's resume is far better than both. Will be interested to see what they do with them. At the very least PSU should be ahead of Utah with Utah's bad loss to USC.

Pitt has a beef for top 25.
Maryland didnt look dreadful in the early going.
Idiana loses to #9 and drops out.....

 

[heckmans]

I'm not knocking you for posting this, but frankly, none of this matters.

If the B1G east champ wins the B1G championship, they go to the CFP. If the west champ wins, the B1G won't be represented.

 

[Sooner Lion]

Ridiculous for us to drop below the pac 12 teams in the first place based on resume. Regardless of where PSU is ranked tonight if they beat Ohio State and win out, they are in. Dont see it happening though considering how bad our defense has been on top of lack of consistent WR play on O.

Because we lost to minne-freaking-sota.

 

[psu00]

I think the committee just tinkers around now and they tend to put a few different schools near the top 4 to spread the love (but always keep the perceived top 4 in striking range knowing teams will fall out (PSU vs OSU, Oregon vs Utah etc).

When we get to conference championship week the committee appears to refocus the rankings to the general consensus and they often change the decision criteria to get what they want.

 

[bdgan]

College Football Playoff Rankings prediction: Penn State, Oklahoma make significant jumps

#6 - Penn State
Now that Minnesota has a loss, the committee can go back to ranking Penn State where it belongs based on its entire season and not one game. The committee overreacted last week by dropping the Nittany Lions behind the Pac-12 teams, even though their resume is clearly better. The problem was that Minnesota's resume was not better than the Pac-12 teams and the committee was too eager to honor a less than decisive head-to-head result. Of course, after this week's game with Ohio State, Penn State will either be the top-ranked one-loss team or no longer part of the playoff discussion. Last week: 9

Although I don't think we're playing our best football right now, and the game this weekend has the potential to get ugly.... The rankings are supposed to be about the entirety of what you've accomplished.

I think CBS is spot on with their prediction, however i'll be shocked if its where we end up later tonight. If we're only talking about getting into the four team playoff it's all irrelevant. If we're talking about the potential for Penn State to get into a new year's six, jumping 3 spots after a shaky win over Indiana would be clutch for our chances at the Rose.

We shall see

It makes no difference where we're ranked at this point. We're not getting into the playoffs with 2 losses and we're definitely in the playoffs if we win out.

 

[bdgan]

I'm not knocking you for posting this, but frankly, none of this matters.

If the B1G east champ wins the B1G championship, they go to the CFP. If the west champ wins, the B1G won't be represented.

I think a 12-1 OSU would have a good chance.

 

[Thomas1945]

I think the committee just tinkers around now and they tend to put a few different schools near the top 4 to spread the love (but always keep the perceived top 4 in striking range knowing teams will fall out (PSU vs OSU, Oregon vs Utah etc).

When we get to conference championship week the committee appears to refocus the rankings to the general consensus and they often change the decision criteria to get what they want.

Are you suggesting that favoritism, cronyism or other unnamed isms in any way effect the fair and unbiased judgment of the committee?

 

[KnightSlayer]

Ridiculous for us to drop below the pac 12 teams in the first place based on resume. Regardless of where PSU is ranked tonight if they beat Ohio State and win out, they are in. Dont see it happening though considering how bad our defense has been on top of lack of consistent WR play on O.

Yeah, because one thing is for sure in college football; you always play exactly the way you've played the last two games. There is no chance our D rises to the occasion and, our O will be lucky to get into fg range.

Ahia State walks on water, don't ya know.

 

[heckmans]

I think a 12-1 OSU would have a good chance.

Maybe, but I think the committee would be hesitant. The last time they put OSU in over the B1G champ, they were embarrassed.

 

[psugisher]

I can see us staying at 9 this week. We weren't impressive so moving past Oregon or Utah seems to be a bit of a stretch. Oklahoma won on the road against an undefeated team so I think they'll pass us. Minnesota shouldn't drop that far. I do like that we don't really have to worry about it. Win Saturday and we control our own destiny. Lose and we're done.

 

[Relayer]

Maybe, but I think the committee would be hesitant. The last time they put OSU in over the B1G champ, they were embarrassed.

At 12-1 he must be saying OSU will lose to Michigan and still make the playoff winning the BIG championship. It's the only scenario where OSU would finish 12-1.

 

[JWB389]

Maybe, but I think the committee would be hesitant. The last time they put OSU in over the B1G champ, they were embarrassed.

Which is why a bunch of insiders voting for the top 4 is just as stupid as a thousand journalists or 100 coaches voting for the top teams. This system isn't a solution, it's a band aid. If their voting system was at all accurate, you'd think they could have picked at least one eventual winner as a 1 seed by now.

Not directed at you...just ranting today.

 

[Shadow99]

Indiana loses to #9 and drops out.....

Yeah, isn't that what #23 is supposed to do when playing #9 on the road, especially considering the fact that IN played respectably in the game? lol

 

[interrobang]

Well, Palm was the first "expert" to project PSU to be #4 in the initial rankings, 2 weeks before they came out.

 

[NittanyLion15]

It makes no difference where we're ranked at this point. We're not getting into the playoffs with 2 losses and we're definitely in the playoffs if we win out.

I'm not knocking you for posting this, but frankly, none of this matters.

If the B1G east champ wins the B1G championship, they go to the CFP. If the west champ wins, the B1G won't be represented.

You don't think climbing 3 spots to #6 from #9 could have an impact on where we end up after we likely lose on Saturday at Ohio State? If we're #9 going into the game, we likely drop well below 12th. If we're 6th headed into the matchup, and it's close we could stay in the top 10.

The six games focus on the top 12 teams in the rankings; to date during the College Football Playoff era (2014 through 2018 seasons), of the 60 teams to play in a New Year's Six game, only six have been ranked lower than 12th.

Last year the Outback & Citrus Bowls paid out 4.25 & 3.5 million respectively to the participating schools. The Rose Bowl paid out 18 million.

It absolutely matters.

 

[interrobang]

Actually the financials don't matter since B1G teams pool bowl money.

 

[Jerry]

On the one hand, right, if we somehow beat the Bucks and win out, we're in, so from that standpoint the ranking debate is meaningless.

On the other hand, it's galling to listen to the hypocrisy, the shifting standards from year to year and week to week...and most of all, the BS sermonizing from the media talking heads about "resume." Every year "resume" is a buzzword they throw out there.

Penn State's 2019 "resume" is the best of any 1-loss team. It's not close, except maybe for Georgia. Not just because of the October games, which everyone knew would be tough. But also because of teams like Minnesota, Pittsburgh, and Indiana -- thought to be fairly easy wins going in to the year...and they're now 23-7 combined.

If "resume" actually meant something, we'd be ranked #5 in the country tonight. But figure the odds. Because the ranking has a lot more to do with politics than resume...and the media is first and foremost about politics, while at the end of the day, the CFP committee is also swayed by it.

 

[djm_psu_alum]

First off, I don't believe the jump will be that significant if at all. Yes, we should have been above Utah and Oregon after last week but I think it will be harder make that argument since the reasons were the same then as they are now. A win over Indiana hardly pushes that idea further.

Just IMHO, but this might be the most important rankings for us since it will establish our cushion (if there is any) between us and several teams--assuming* we lose to OSU.

• For us to make the Rose Bowl (if OSU wins the B10 and gets to the playoffs), we need to be the highest ranked B10 team by far or at least considered the 2nd best B10 team. If we can have a solid cushion ahead of Minnesota, Michigan, and Wisconsin, that will help us even if we lose vs OSU. Yes, we would fall and potential below one or more of those three but all three could/should have their own loss coming up in the next 3 weeks.
  • Minn vs Wisc in last week of regular season
  • Mich vs OSU in last week of regular season
  • Wisc vs OSU in B10 champ game
• If we want a shot at another NY6 bowl, the same logic applies but for different teams. For an at-large bid, we need to stay above the 2nd best Pac12 team, 2nd best B12 team, and 4th best SEC team.
  • If we are ahead of Oregon/Utah, that helps a great deal as the loser of that pair will be 11-2 with a division crown and second loss in a champ game.
  • We should be ahead of Baylor and Oklahoma (we already were) but we need to be a few more spots above to provide the cushion if/when we lose to OSU. It will also help if Baylor can lose vs Texas this weekend and then vs Oklahoma in the Big12 champ game.
  • I think the biggest threat will be Florida. They are already considered the best 2-loss team by the CFP. They have the two best losses and a win over Auburn and that's it. If we are right above them, we will undoubtedly drop below them if/when we lose to OSU.

*Before some of you jump in, yes--"assuming we lose"--when you're a 19-point underdog, it is fair to use the term. If anyone can provide any statistical analysis where 19 point underdogs win straight up at least 33% of the time, I'll gladly change it.

 

[psu00]

Are you suggesting that favoritism, cronyism or other unnamed isms in any way effect the fair and unbiased judgment of the committee?

Not in a nefarious way but more in a ‘keep the interest and please the masses’ way.

The general consensus this year has been Bama, Clemson, LSU, OSU (no particular order). They aren’t going to rank the same 4 in every poll. They suddenly drop Clemson and insert PSU......knowing PSU will likely lose to Minny and/or OSU aaaaand...... Clemson is back in the top 4. They’ve done similar things over the past few years. Bama loses to LSU and drops all the way to 5 with Georgia at 4. Georgia will play LSU in the SEC championship game, 1 will lose and drop, and look- Bama’s back in the top 4! .

 

[LionRange]

First off, I don't believe the jump will be that significant if at all. Yes, we should have been above Utah and Oregon after last week but I think it will be harder make that argument since the reasons were the same then as they are now. A win over Indiana hardly pushes that idea further.

Just IMHO, but this might be the most important rankings for us since it will establish our cushion (if there is any) between us and several teams--assuming* we lose to OSU.

• For us to make the Rose Bowl (if OSU wins the B10 and gets to the playoffs), we need to be the highest ranked B10 team by far or at least considered the 2nd best B10 team. If we can have a solid cushion ahead of Minnesota, Michigan, and Wisconsin, that will help us even if we lose vs OSU. Yes, we would fall and potential below one or more of those three but all three could/should have their own loss coming up in the next 3 weeks.
  • Minn vs Wisc in last week of regular season
  • Mich vs OSU in last week of regular season
  • Wisc vs OSU in B10 champ game
• If we want a shot at another NY6 bowl, the same logic applies but for different teams. For an at-large bid, we need to stay above the 2nd best Pac12 team, 2nd best B12 team, and 4th best SEC team.
  • If we are ahead of Oregon/Utah, that helps a great deal as the loser of that pair will be 11-2 with a division crown and second loss in a champ game.
  • We should be ahead of Baylor and Oklahoma (we already were) but we need to be a few more spots above to provide the cushion if/when we lose to OSU. It will also help if Baylor can lose vs Texas this weekend and then vs Oklahoma in the Big12 champ game.
  • I think the biggest threat will be Florida. They are already considered the best 2-loss team by the CFP. They have the two best losses and a win over Auburn and that's it. If we are right above them, we will undoubtedly drop below them if/when we lose to OSU.

*Before some of you jump in, yes--"assuming we lose"--when you're a 19-point underdog, it is fair to use the term. If anyone can provide any statistical analysis where 19 point underdogs win straight up at least 33% of the time, I'll gladly change it.

I think what can help us is Indiana and or Pittsburgh becoming ranked by seasons end and of course Iowa taking care of business and going 9-3.

If we have 3 ranked wins to Florida’s 1 it will be borderline fishy to put Florida in over us

 

[djm_psu_alum]

Not in a nefarious way but more in a ‘keep the interest and please the masses’ way.

The general consensus this year has been Bama, Clemson, LSU, OSU (no particular order). They aren’t going to rank the same 4 in every poll. They suddenly drop Clemson and insert PSU......knowing PSU will likely lose to Minny and/or OSU aaaaand...... Clemson is back in the top 4. They’ve done similar things over the past few years. Bama loses to LSU and drops all the way to 5 with Georgia at 4. Georgia will play LSU in the SEC championship game, 1 will lose and drop, and look- Bama’s back in the top 4! .

I actually think they if Bama wins out and Oregon or Utah wins out, they will put the Pac12 champ into the playoffs over Bama because I think they understand they will hear the rest of the country crying foul of making that move and placating to the SEC yet again. Also, I think this is different than 2017 because Alabama does not have any quality wins (A&M?) and Tua is out. If Oregon wins the Pac12 and Bama beats Auburn handedly, I could see them making the argument but because that was the game 1 and it was close, I think they give Oregon the nod.

Now, if Georgia beats LSU, I think both get into the playoffs regardless of all of crying about SEC favoritism. If that happens, it would/should open a slot up in the Orange or Cotton for PSU.

 

[djm_psu_alum]

I think what can help us is Indiana and or Pittsburgh becoming ranked by seasons end and of course Iowa taking care of business and going 9-3.

If we have 3 ranked wins to Florida’s 1 it will be borderline fishy to put Florida in over us

I agree but when it's the SEC, I throw out common sense. Also, I've learned not to depend on Pitt for anything.

 

[psu00]

I actually think they if Bama wins out and Oregon or Utah wins out, they will put the Pac12 champ into the playoffs over Bama because I think they understand they will hear the rest of the country crying foul of making that move and placating to the SEC yet again. Also, I think this is different than 2017 because Alabama does not have any quality wins (A&M?) and Tua is out. If Oregon wins the Pac12 and Bama beats Auburn handedly, I could see them making the argument but because that was the game 1 and it was close, I think they give Oregon the nod.

Now, if Georgia beats LSU, I think both get into the playoffs regardless of all of crying about SEC favoritism. If that happens, it would/should open a slot up in the Orange or Cotton for PSU.

It will be interesting. I think the Tua situation could come into play if there’s a close debate over the final spot.

I’m not sure how much love they’ll give the PAC 12 champ, especially if it’s Utah. The PAC 12 was a horrible conference this year and you’ll definitely hear the SEC homers pushing for 2 SEC teams (to go with Clemson and OSU). The questions about Oklahoma’s defense will likely keep them out.

 

[WestSideLion]

I don't understand why we would jump the Pac 12 teams. Of course, I don't understand why we fell below them to begin with

It doesn’t matter in the end. The Ohio State game is the season. Lose and it’s all moot. Win and it’s all moot.

 

[bdgan]

You don't think climbing 3 spots to #6 from #9 could have an impact on where we end up after we likely lose on Saturday at Ohio State? If we're #9 going into the game, we likely drop well below 12th. If we're 6th headed into the matchup, and it's close we could stay in the top 10.

The six games focus on the top 12 teams in the rankings; to date during the College Football Playoff era (2014 through 2018 seasons), of the 60 teams to play in a New Year's Six game, only six have been ranked lower than 12th.

Last year the Outback & Citrus Bowls paid out 4.25 & 3.5 million respectively to the participating schools. The Rose Bowl paid out 18 million.

It absolutely matters.

Don't the conference teams split the bowl money?

I think there's a good chance we'll be in the top 12 even with a competitive loss to OSU. Probably not if we get blown out. A lot of that depends on what happens in other games. Minnesota, Michigan, and Wisconsin could all technically win out and move ahead of PSU. Auburn vs Alabama and conference title games will have a big impact too.

Sure, I assume it's better to be 6th than 8th at this point but I think the outcome of these games have a much bigger impact.

 

[Texas Lion]

We will be at 8....ESPN just posted who has the best chance to be the #4...listed Georgia, Alabama, Oklahoma, or Oregon. No PSU, No Utah, No Minnesota, No Baylor......

Say what you want but it is very much in play that ESPN has a say in who goes to the playoffs.

 

[fastlax16]

the pac 12 team rankings prove resume doesn't mean anything.

 

[NittanyIllinois]

Nope. Only moved up one spot to #8.

 

[PennStateNate]

We will be at 8....ESPN just posted who has the best chance to be the #4...listed Georgia, Alabama, Oklahoma, or Oregon. No PSU, No Utah, No Minnesota, No Baylor......

Say what you want but it is very much in play that ESPN has a say in who goes to the playoffs.

Don’t ESPN broadcast all the games?? Of course they have a say.

 

[Beachwineguy]

I can’t see the committee taking a Tua-less Alabama over a one loss PAC 12 champion and a one loss Big 12 champion. If so, then I’ll have lost all faith in college football.