BYE Week ... and a few thoughts!

Just another PSU Fan

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Jan 25, 2013
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the grind of the B1G dual season has come to a close --- a much needed BYE weekend is coming up!

The weather forecast was close to predicted except for the light snow after the match Friday night ... a bit of white knuckle gripping on the wheel going down the mountain on 322 E ...

Had a few pints with friends at Duffy's in Boalsburg prior to the match - glad to see them after the pandemic hiatus!

What was awesome
* Best match of the weekend, Vito v Glory! More More More!!!
* Purdue with the W over Minneysota -- well done Boilers!
* Levi Haines get'n it done!
* Army with W over Lehigh

Loser of the weekend: Iowa fan(s) for the racist comments - not cool! Will take a lot of great to get me to be a fan of Carver crowds again!

165lb landscape -- this is wide open and my pick for deepest weight class!
O'Toole beat Witlake
Griffin over Valencia
Bull over Hamiti
Wick
Kharchla


My Pound for Pound top 3
1. Gable
2. Brooks
3. Yianni

Just 4 weeks until B1G Championships!
 

nerfstate

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Oct 10, 2017
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Fixed it for ya.

Nick is underrated by too many. His NC, followed by a demoralizing win over Yianni at the trials (freestyle or not) puts Nick ahead of anyone not named Gable or AB.
I love Nick as much as anyone here--but his bonus rate this year is down a smidge. I think Carr is in the conversation too. That's my top 5 though--w/ O'Toole able to sneak in if he manages to win out.
 

WEAREPSU_LI

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Feb 15, 2019
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I think Carr doesn't get enough praise. He's head and shoulders better than everyone in his weight, I think.
 

okinburg1

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Loser of the weekend: Iowa fan(s) for the racist comments - not cool! Will take a lot of great to get me to be a fan of Carver crowds again!
Several HR posters have guaranteed that in the liberal beacon of light that is Iowa City no such comment would ever be made. Therefore, I must conclude that the Gomez situation has been fabricated.
 

McScoreley

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I think the coaches have some leeway to do Big Ten seeding, they gave Kerk the 7 last year.
 

McScoreley

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I imagine this is something Cael thought about and Brady is still rolling the dice:


A pigtail might not be a terrible thing (should be a lower opponent that maybe come with bonus opportunity even) ... but then he has David Carr immediately. As long as he doesn't get too beat up in that match, it comes down to how the bracket plays out (and if Brady handles the cut well)
 

johnstownsteel

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I imagine this is something Cael thought about and Brady is still rolling the dice:



A pigtail might not be a terrible thing (should be a lower opponent that maybe come with bonus opportunity even) ... but then he has David Carr immediately. As long as he doesn't get too beat up in that match, it comes down to how the bracket plays out (and if Brady handles the cut well)
Something doesn’t seem right with that Twitter post. So Brady goes to 157, wins Big10 tourney and he’s a 33 seed at Nationals? I doubt that.
 

johnstownsteel

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Yeah I don’t think he’d be the 33 in that case. Feels like the precedent could definitely change there.
I dont think he’d be a 33 seed even if he finished 3rd. I know he might not have enough matches at the weight for RPI. but don’t they also go by coaches ranking as well? I’d think if he finished top 3 at Big 10s he’d be ranked high enough to keep him from being a 33 seed.
 
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jmadden1998

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Joe Smith finished 5th at the Big XII tourney in 2019. Big XII had 6 qualifiers at the weight. His only matches at 165 were during the conference tourney.
 

apoharrow

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Joe Smith finished 5th at the Big XII tourney in 2019. Big XII had 6 qualifiers at the weight. His only matches at 165 were during the conference tourney.
I wonder how much a 3rd place finish in the much better conference the big ten would change that? Hope we find out.
 

jmadden1998

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Seeding formula:

Head-to-head competition — 25 percent
Quality wins — 20 percent
Coaches Ranking — 15 percent
Results against common opponents — 10 percent
RPI — 10 percent
Qualifying event placement — 10 percent
Win % — 10 percent

There are seven categories used to weigh all 33 qualifiers against each other. Essentially, these numbers are run head-to-head against the entirety of the field 32 times over, which means that every qualifier is assigned a rank within the seeding matrix.

So this sets a baseline for the seeding committee but is not always final. A wrestler can only be argued up or down if he is within three points of the other wrestler. This allows some level of subjectivity and might catch things the formula could miss.

Berge wouldn’t have a coaches ranking or RPI so he gets 0 points for 25% of the criteria.
 

McScoreley

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Idk - historically, Nomad has been on the money with stuff like seeding, it's just a formula. He was wrong last year but there was clearly human manipulation involved when they realized the Big Ten runner ups at 141 and 285 were looking at 4/5 seeds.
 

johnstownsteel

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Those are the criteria for earning an at large bid not for seeding. Nomad is FOS on this topic.
Exactly. There’s 7 or 8 different things used to seed the tournament. I think head to head competition is one of the major ones. Then there’s coaches rankings, quality wins, results against quality opponents and then I believe they take into account where you place at your qualifying tournament. So yeah, pretty sure Nomad is indeed FOS.
 

RoarLions1

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Something doesn’t seem right with that Twitter post. So Brady goes to 157, wins Big10 tourney and he’s a 33 seed at Nationals? I doubt that.

That's a good point ...

Yeah I don’t think he’d be the 33 in that case. Feels like the precedent could definitely change there.

I dont think he’d be a 33 seed even if he finished 3rd. I know he might not have enough matches at the weight for RPI. but don’t they also go by coaches ranking as well? I’d think if he finished top 3 at Big 10s he’d be ranked high enough to keep him from being a 33 seed.

Maybe Roar will chime in. Still think Nomad is wrong. No way in hell if Berge wins Big 10s he’sa 33 seed. If I’m wrong I’ll say I’m wrong but don’t think I am.
The NCAA Wrestling Committee uses the same criteria to determine seeds as they use for at-large determination. So yes, Coaches Ranking, Win %, and RPI are part of the "comparison" between wrestlers when determining seeds. Without 5 bouts at 157 (Coaches Ranking only), Berge will not "win" any of the comparisons. He very easily could be the 33 seed if he goes 157 and "steals" a spot.

It's not the end of the world however. The 33 seed gets the 32 seed in a pigtail bout, then gets #1. Assuming a loss to #1, he'll have to make hay in consolations, which is what he'd have to do anyway at some point.
 

johnstownsteel

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The NCAA Wrestling Committee uses the same criteria to determine seeds as they use for at-large determination. So yes, Coaches Ranking, Win %, and RPI are part of the "comparison" between wrestlers when determining seeds. Without 5 bouts at 157 (Coaches Ranking only), Berge will not "win" any of the comparisons. He very easily could be the 33 seed if he steals a spot.

It's not the end of the world however. The 33 seed gets the 32 seed in a pigtail bout, then gets #1. After that it's all consolations anyway, which is where he's have to make hay at some point.
I’ll take your word for it and admit I was wrong. Just have a hard time accepting that a big ten champion would be seeded 33rd.
 
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RoarLions1

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I’ll take your word for it and admit I was wrong. Just have a hard time accepting that a big ten champion would be seeded 33rd.
What the NCAA Wrestling Committee has tried to do ever since the days of fixed qualifying numbers and set wild-card voting by conference is systematize the process. Now we have;
-- Criteria for Gold & Silver Standards that set the qualifier allocations
-- Criteria for Bronze Standard for at-large selections
-- The three criteria have a set # of bouts in a weight class to be considered
-- and more.

I must admit, from someone that's been following since the early 1970's, today's process is a lot more fair. AND it is explainable, though at times the NCAA lacks transparency and does not take the time to explain things.

I'm sure not every situation fits nicely into the model that is used, even though I'm convinced outliers are rare. So I'm going to hang loose until everything plays out. There may be ways to "adjust" a seed, we'll just have to wait to see. Again, I'm not sure it matters. A #33 seed, if all goes chalk, gets #32, 1, 17, 15, and so on. Lot's of AA wrestlers do so through the consi route.
 

District four

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Seeding formula:

Head-to-head competition — 25 percent
Quality wins — 20 percent
Coaches Ranking — 15 percent
Results against common opponents — 10 percent
RPI — 10 percent
Qualifying event placement — 10 percent
Win % — 10 percent

There are seven categories used to weigh all 33 qualifiers against each other. Essentially, these numbers are run head-to-head against the entirety of the field 32 times over, which means that every qualifier is assigned a rank within the seeding matrix.

So this sets a baseline for the seeding committee but is not always final. A wrestler can only be argued up or down if he is within three points of the other wrestler. This allows some level of subjectivity and might catch things the formula could miss.

Berge wouldn’t have a coaches ranking or RPI so he gets 0 points for 25% of the criteria.
Im impressed that you know all that I really am. Makes more sense than all the other explanations.
 

RoarLions1

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May 11, 2012
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Seeding formula:

Head-to-head competition — 25 percent
Quality wins — 20 percent
Coaches Ranking — 15 percent
Results against common opponents — 10 percent
RPI — 10 percent
Qualifying event placement — 10 percent
Win % — 10 percent

There are seven categories used to weigh all 33 qualifiers against each other. Essentially, these numbers are run head-to-head against the entirety of the field 32 times over, which means that every qualifier is assigned a rank within the seeding matrix.

So this sets a baseline for the seeding committee but is not always final. A wrestler can only be argued up or down if he is within three points of the other wrestler. This allows some level of subjectivity and might catch things the formula could miss.

Berge wouldn’t have a coaches ranking or RPI so he gets 0 points for 25% of the criteria.
Assuming Berge goes 157, he also will not have Win %, and unless he's competing for a seed vs another Big Ten wrestler, the HTH piece will be a wash. It's far worse than getting "0" points for 25% of the criteria.
 

jmadden1998

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Assuming Berge goes 157, he also will not have Win %, and unless he's competing for a seed vs another Big Ten wrestler, the HTH piece will be a wash. It's far worse than getting "0" points for 25% of the criteria.
True. I wasn’t 100% sure on the other criteria. As you said it is very likely he gets the 33 seed even if he wins Big 10’s. Assuming he can complete the descent soon enough could he find an open tourney to compete before Big 10’s?
 

McScoreley

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True. I was 100% sure on the other criteria. As you said it is very likely he gets the 33 seed even if he wins Big 10’s. Assuming he can complete the descent soon enough could he find an open tourney to compete before Big 10’s?
That's another scenario discussed for sure. Ideally he can do an open tournament but descent rules might prevent it.
 

El-Jefe

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To win B10s at 157, Berge would have to beat Deakin, Lee and/or Robb, and one of Coleman, Young, and Lewan. Possibly 4 out of that group.

There are not 32 wrestlers capable of beating Deakin or Lee/Robb, let alone both of them. Sticking to the formula would be like putting the DMV in charge of seeding.
 

GogglesPaizano

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Feb 6, 2018
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To win B10s at 157, Berge would have to beat Deakin, Lee and/or Robb, and one of Coleman, Young, and Lewan. Possibly 4 out of that group.

There are not 32 wrestlers capable of beating Deakin or Lee/Robb, let alone both of them. Sticking to the formula would be like putting the DMV in charge of seeding.

Sorry gang, but Berge ain't winning Bigs at 157. I didn't like his tank against Marinelli one bit up at 165, we don't know what we will get after a late drop to 157.

He has the talent to beat any of the top 8 for sure but 3-4 of those guys in a row, my glasses aren't that rosy.

At this late stage he could end up a NQ if he were to hit the wrong two hammers back to back and things don't go his way.

There is a better than even chance both 157 and 165 are NQs, and my confidence in Beau is still there, but strained a bit. We are still the favorites in my eyes but all of our studs have to perform to seed which leaves very little room for error. Even Hildybeast could have an early hiccup, he is realistically anywhere from #4-#12. I think Max had more heart than any 197 out there but he is undoubtedly undersized and has some trouble with the bigger kids. He too could be #2-#8.

What we do have that no one else has, is the x factor. The x factor being how Cael preps guys for March. Noone is anywhere near Cael's league, the secret formula proves out every year. A couple of guys will need to be in nationals shape for Bigs this year which definitely is a bit different.

On short we have about 4 weights that could be boom or bust, but this is why it is so great to have Cael Manning the ship. He gets it done!
 
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Cowbell Man

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That's another scenario discussed for sure. Ideally he can do an open tournament but descent rules might prevent it.
This weekend depends on his official weight at Iowa. After this weekend he has room to be 157 regardless.
 

Cowbell Man

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What the NCAA Wrestling Committee has tried to do ever since the days of fixed qualifying numbers and set wild-card voting by conference is systematize the process. Now we have;
-- Criteria for Gold & Silver Standards that set the qualifier allocations
-- Criteria for Bronze Standard for at-large selections
-- The three criteria have a set # of bouts in a weight class to be considered
-- and more.

I must admit, from someone that's been following since the early 1970's, today's process is a lot more fair. AND it is explainable, though at times the NCAA lacks transparency and does not take the time to explain things.

I'm sure not every situation fits nicely into the model that is used, even though I'm convinced outliers are rare. So I'm going to hang loose until everything plays out. There may be ways to "adjust" a seed, we'll just have to wait to see. Again, I'm not sure it matters. A #33 seed, if all goes chalk, gets #32, 1, 17, 15, and so on. Lot's of AA wrestlers do so through the consi route.
You know my position for years. You have to wrestle the guy in front of you. However, Improper seeding affects the front side less than it punishes the backside. Those guys are fighting back thru with no room to spare when “wtf is this guy doing here?” A big upset in a tourney does this too, of course, but that is expected.
 

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