Boom !!!

NJPSU

Well-Known Member
May 29, 2001
44,098
15,470
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Here is a better reference to the Trinity Study.

The problem with this study is that it dilutes the really bad periods by using an extremely broad period and then assuming that the probability [today] is the same as a random sample for the entire study period.

I don't think there is any period in that study where there was simultaneous debt and inflation to the degree that we have today. In fact we could take 130% debt/GDP and say that is optimistic because it does not include unfunded liabilities. We did not have inflation like this after WW2, and we certainly did not have massive liabilities associated with socialized retirement and healthcare for the old and poor. Further, we were not at a competitive disadvantage in manufacturing. We were in fact world leaders. Not at all true today. Our workforce today is lacking pertinent skills. Data released today is showing a significant decline in productivity, i.e., we are getting less work at a higher cost.
Maybe, that’s why I’ve heard many people recommend using 3.5% instead of 4% for the withdrawal rate.
 

Lion8286

Well-Known Member
Sep 1, 2008
15,714
22,914
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I think the Fed needs to consult Cheeto Hitler on what it should do to address inflation. And any other problem the Fed must deal with. After all, only Cheeto can solve it. He's the smartest guy walking the face of the planet. And the most humble. Perfect for the role of Mar a Lago's unofficial poolside greeter. :cool:

Hey LB: Boom!!
 
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KnightWhoSaysNit

Well-Known Member
Jul 19, 2010
8,706
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I should correct/amend my post above.

We did in fact have high inflation just after WW2 in 1946/7. But the differences that I outlined are significant. Further, that situation was associated with high unemployment. To correct inflation it was just a matter of turning the soldiers into factory workers. We did that.

But today, if we are to believe the employment numbers, we do not have people waiting to go to work. The people we are importing to make up for the shortfall are not a good match for the needs. They don't even speak English. Modern factories use robots. My home has no lawn.

Will skilled baby boomer retirees return to the workforce? That is probably what is needed.
 

Darth_VadEER

Well-Known Member
Dec 14, 2010
916
1,371
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I think the Fed needs to consult Cheeto Hitler on what it should do to address inflation. And any other problem the Fed must deal with. After all, only Cheeto can solve it. He's the smartest guy walking the face of the planet. And the most humble. Perfect for the role of Mar a Lago's unofficial poolside greeter. :cool:

Wouldn't be a bad idea. America was better when Trump was President. Joe Biden and the Democrats have been a disaster..