Biden's America: New Analysis Says We're Entering a Recession

m.knox

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#BIDENCOOLEREFFECT

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattv...ably-already-heading-into-a-recessio-n2597274

David Blanchflower of Dartmouth College and Alex Bryson of University College London have kicked off such a debate.

In a new research paper released last week, they used history to wonder if a recent decline in consumer expectations suggests the world's biggest economy is already in recession again.

Every slump since the 1980s has been foreshadowed 18 months ahead of time by drops of at least 10 points in gauges of consumer expectations from the Conference Board and University of Michigan, according to the authors.

The Conference Board’s index dropped in September to the lowest since November last year, although the University of Michigan’s gained.

“Downward movements in consumer expectations in the last six months suggest the economy in the United States is entering recession now,” wrote Blanchflower and Bryson.
 

KnightWhoSaysNit

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Real inflation has to be in the neighborhood of 20-30%. Something like that gets followed by stagflation or a deep recession.

Productivity is not increasing from what it was just before the pandemic. That much is obvious to anyone that simply looks at what is going on around themselves.

So .... relative to pre-pandemic, we have a stock market that increased by way more than the reported CPI. With lower productivity, the price of goods and services must increase or the price of assets like stock and real estate must come down.

Asset prices can be inflated with declining interest rates, as occurred over the last 4 decades, but there is no room to go appreciably down from here. In fact the recent bond selloff is a reflection of sustained inflation expectations.

The increase in (even the reported) GDP is clearly lagging far behind inflation, and debt/GDP is soaring while government plans to double down on policies that initiated the problem. This means we have started a death-spiral where the value of stocks and bonds will not cover the increase in the price of goods and services.

It's a terrible situation for those in retirement, especially those that are younger retirees who expected to live on earnings. That just doesn't happen with a pandemic and a system headed for socialism. There are no examples that show something like this doesn't end badly. The 1970s will comparatively seem like the good-old-days.

Bottom line: There is a reason for awful consumer sentiment. They see the truth. Doesn't matter what the government or media claim. Doesn't matter how The Left, or even The Fed, distorts the presentation of data. We will have stagflation or even possibly a depression. I look for a lot of old people trying to reenter the workforce. It will become ugly.
 

m.knox

Well-Known Member
Gold Member
Aug 20, 2003
102,006
54,602
1
Real inflation has to be in the neighborhood of 20-30%. Something like that gets followed by stagflation or a deep recession.

Productivity is not increasing from what it was just before the pandemic. That much is obvious to anyone that simply looks at what is going on around themselves.

So .... relative to pre-pandemic, we have a stock market that increased by way more than the reported CPI. With lower productivity, the price of goods and services must increase or the price of assets like stock and real estate must come down.

Asset prices can be inflated with declining interest rates, as occurred over the last 4 decades, but there is no room to go appreciably down from here. In fact the recent bond selloff is a reflection of sustained inflation expectations.

The increase in (even the reported) GDP is clearly lagging far behind inflation, and debt/GDP is soaring while government plans to double down on policies that initiated the problem. This means we have started a death-spiral where the value of stocks and bonds will not cover the increase in the price of goods and services.

It's a terrible situation for those in retirement, especially those that are younger retirees who expected to live on earnings. That just doesn't happen with a pandemic and a system headed for socialism. There are no examples that show something like this doesn't end badly. The 1970s will comparatively seem like the good-old-days.

Bottom line: There is a reason for awful consumer sentiment. They see the truth. Doesn't matter what the government or media claim. Doesn't matter how The Left, or even The Fed, distorts the presentation of data. We will have stagflation or even possibly a depression. I look for a lot of old people trying to reenter the workforce. It will become ugly.

It's only just beginning. Joey Asthma only realized yesterday that our ports are a mess. He was too busy trying to figure out how to solve inflation by spending 3.5 trillion dollars.
 
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