I have to agree with you Mike, but if Nick was at 149, I really think he makes the final.
Berge was at 165 and now 157!
- Thread starter crockster
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Doubtwelder
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With Brayton Lee out, if Brady is not struggling with the cut, there’s no one, apart from Deakin, at Big 10s I'd take over him.
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The big if here .... I'm slightly worried about that.
the other thing to think about is there is now one less spot for him to steal. will probably need to beat someone like coleman or saldate. certainly capable, but that's not easy either. he'll have no shot at a wildcard.
I'm actually confused about this, was PSU going to allocate a spot when our 157 has basically no wins in conference?
Either way, I'm down for this. It's worth the risk. Barraclough would be a long shot to even qualify for 157. He's improving but wrestling close matches doesn't get you points at nationals. What are we sacrificing at 165? 2 points? If Brady qualifies at 165, he's looking at something like that. Even with a low teens seed, he's looking at a National Champion caliber guy round 2 and again in the blood round. I think Edsell can get us 2 points possibly on the backside (165 isn't deep but it's top heavy and I think the Top 8 are pretty obvious)
There's a low chance Brady can sneak on the podium from the backside from 157 but it's close to 0 at 165 probably.
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Don’t forget this is the same guy who made a ridiculous cut to 149 one season and seems to handle it very well. I have faith in both him and the coaches.
Did Brady handle it well? He placed 6th at Big Tens, went 2-2 at Nationals scoring 1.5 points and missed multiple duals because he couldn't handle the cut lol.
Thankfully, he'll only have to do it for 2-3 weekends this time, and at 157. I think there is risk with either weight--but I bet Brady, with support from his coaches, probably have the most, best information by which to make the decision.
Random other thought: I love how all this intrigue is capturing everyone so much. It's keeping the attention/pressure off of all the other guys, and putting a seasoned guy with his own D1 coaching experience in the spotlight.
This I agree with! I just don't think he handled the 149 cut well and I don't think he should have been expected to lol. That experiment was bound to fail from Day 1 and is not typical for a Cael team (cue Shak at 165 jokes)
He still was probably our best option there.
Again, I’ll use that age old “trust in Cael” adage and feel quite good about it. Guy knows a thing or two about wrestling.
Brayton Lee officially out for the season. B1G is looking at 6 allocations?
Deakin
Young
Coleman
Saldate
Lewan
Robb
This won't be easy.
Deakin
Young
Coleman
Saldate
Lewan
Robb
This won't be easy.
Does Model qualify a spot? Not sure his win over Lee has much/ any impact now. Model is 12-9 with only one bad loss.
Edit: Model is 26th in coaches ranking and 15th in RPI adjusting for Lee’s absence. I think he probably qualifies a spot. There are 2 B1G wrestles behind Model in RPI top 33 but I don’t think they’ll qualify.
Also, sorry to see Lee out. He’s one tough dude
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Agreed but he needs to at least split his 2 remaining matches vs Holschlag (UNI) and Richard (Cornell). Maybe win both. If he loses both, he'll probably drop outside Coaches Poll top 30.
Model's issue is that he has only 1 good win (Lee). Lee's absence won't be held against him, but his lack of other good wins hurts his win % and coaches' ranking.
For everyone's reference, the auto-qualifier and at-large criteria are here:
I checked out Model’s remaining schedule after posting. Probably a make or break weekend for Model as far as qualifying a spot. He’s probably a slight dog in both matchups
For Model (or any wrestler), good wins don't matter until after the conference tourney when the at-large are determined.
All that matters now are CR, Win % and RPI. It's his Win % that's hurting him as it's one criteria and a major part of a second (RPI). He can't afford to drop any lower to get an AQ spot. I'm thinking he needs to win both this weekend to earn a spot for the conference.
All that matters now are CR, Win % and RPI. It's his Win % that's hurting him as it's one criteria and a major part of a second (RPI). He can't afford to drop any lower to get an AQ spot. I'm thinking he needs to win both this weekend to earn a spot for the conference.
Model gets a big W over Hoschlag.
Re. qualifying a spot, I think it’s helpful for Model’s case that he need only meet 2/3 criteria so his winning percentage (although part of the RPI calculation) is irrelevant if he hits the RPI and coaches ranking standards
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Jon Kozak' take on Berge at 157:
"Brady Berge’s weight class was one of the biggest areas of speculation since he announced his move back to State College. While he wrestled 4 matches at 165, he hasn’t wrestled since January 28th against Alex Marinelli. On top of that, Creighton Edsell was included in the latest coaches' rankings. That means Penn State submitted Edsell to be ranked at 165 rather than Berge. The natural conclusion - Brady Berge is dropping to 157 for the postseason.
If Berge does go 157, he’ll have to “steal” a spot at the Big 10 tournament. With only 4 matches on the year (and none at 157), Berge won’t earn an allocation for the NCAA tournament for the Big 10 conference at 157. On top of that, Berge doesn’t currently meet the other criteria for earning an “At-Large” bid at 157. The Big 10 will likely earn between 6-8 automatic qualifying spots at 157. While it’s likely Berge places in the top 6, there’s little margin for error for Berge at the Big 10 Tournament."
"Brady Berge’s weight class was one of the biggest areas of speculation since he announced his move back to State College. While he wrestled 4 matches at 165, he hasn’t wrestled since January 28th against Alex Marinelli. On top of that, Creighton Edsell was included in the latest coaches' rankings. That means Penn State submitted Edsell to be ranked at 165 rather than Berge. The natural conclusion - Brady Berge is dropping to 157 for the postseason.
If Berge does go 157, he’ll have to “steal” a spot at the Big 10 tournament. With only 4 matches on the year (and none at 157), Berge won’t earn an allocation for the NCAA tournament for the Big 10 conference at 157. On top of that, Berge doesn’t currently meet the other criteria for earning an “At-Large” bid at 157. The Big 10 will likely earn between 6-8 automatic qualifying spots at 157. While it’s likely Berge places in the top 6, there’s little margin for error for Berge at the Big 10 Tournament."
I thought I should update the name of the thread.
But, but, but, Brady was adamant he would not move down!
He is wrestling twice today. Dual starts at 157. Then Berge will wrestle the one extra match.
He wasn’t the only adamant one. And yet those who said he was staying at 165 had no plausible explanation for why he didn’t wrestle 2 weeks ago.
Excited for Berge. He's overcame alot to get to this point. Keep it going
But you cared enough to start an OP post to scold those who said Brady was needed more at 57 than at 65 on January 22. But that was pre-Marinelli, right?
So if he gets 3 matches at Big 10’s he can get a coaches ranking and help for seeding at NCAA’s
Hard to imagine he doesn't get 4 though unless he bounces early which would then make it irrelevant.
But I imagine that was the logic indeed. Thank you for your contributions always to questions like this.
He stands a better chance to hit 8 matches at 57 now, despite what the Wrestling Nomad says. For example, Brady had 6 matches last year at B1Gs placing 6th. Losing in the 1st round and then wrestling back to 3rd isn't the only path to 8 matches as the Nomad proclaims.
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www.pennstatewrestlingclub.org
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It might be a possibility to get to 8 matches, but what he definitely gained today is confidence he can handle two matches in a short time at 157.
It was probably about simulating the tournament experience, with two matches in short order in the arena (as opposed to in the room).
As far as at-large eligibility goes: Berge now only needs to finish 1 spot below AQ. Beating Amine satisfies one criterion, because the rule does not specify that a win over a qualifier must occur at the same weight.
Satisfying more criteria would be better. (Captain Obvious says winning a spot outright would be best.)
See criteria -- bottom of the last page here:
That said, Berge would not be in a very good position to actually receive an at-large. At-large selection criteria are on p. 7 here:
There's definitely ambiguity in the Selection Criteria regarding current weight. PSU would argue that his 165 results should count; who knows if that would be accepted. Best to take it out of their hands altogether.
Lobdell didn't read the rules, or misrepresented them. Go figure, red hot bad takes are his MO. (At least his 2nd MO, after DMs with female wrestlers.)
The very first criterion says .700 overall win % -- which would include Berge's 165 matches. He only needs to go 2-2 at B10s to satisfy this.
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Dude is a know it all (even when wrong) who didn't remotely get humbled by his situation lol.
I think you’re correct. Getting those two matches was a good simulation of opening of the tourneys. Completion not very good but he looked fresh both matches and a good sign he may be getting his lungs back a bit.
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