Beau Bartlett at 133, RBY at 141, Lee at 149.

[Dogwelder]

... It's really time to stop whipping this up in to the plague-it's not, and we need to start living normally again.

Look, *everybody* wants to open up all the way back to normal, *if* there were no cost.

But there is a cost to opening up further. So, it is not helpful for us to loudly proclaim we should buy more opening up, if we don’t know the price and we don’t know our budget.

We should actually just say how many excess deaths would make us comfortable (our budget), and then we can open up to the extent and duration that would kill the right number of people. But how much opening up would we actually receive at the expense of 100,000 (or 200,000 or 1,000,000 or whatever) additional excess deaths above what our current level of opening up would produce by a target date? Nobody has said, in this thread.

If we don’t say our budget, and we don’t say how much we would get for paying our budget, then how would we know whether we are advocating buying a pig in a poke?

Actually, there was an upper limit mentioned in this forum on the price. The upper limit was mentioned to be below that of “the plague,” which must mean the Black Death’s killing of 30 to 50 percent of the population of Europe over four years. With only that upper limit mentioned, our rallying cry so far is that we should open up more because merely less than 30 percent of us all would additionally die within four years. Hmm. That would help only if we are a country of extravagant spenders of lives!

In short, we all want to open up, and all the governors are taking tentative steps, with mistakes and inconsistencies, but it’s not as if we can realistically just start to “live normally”. We have to find and keep some sort of tolerable trade-off between cost and benefit.

It’s just too bad that we are now starting from such a bungled initial response and high current baseline and that we have so divided our population away from teamwork that we can’t even all wear the simple mask.

 

[82bordeaux]

Not to mention the real risk that we may run out of golf course starters and rangers.
Then what do we do?

 

[STAND with PRIDE]

I suspect Seth will wrestle this year, but he did NOT use his redshirt last year. He wrestled. Or was that some other HWT that got us all twisted up for losing to Traub?


Manville has a legit shot at an Olympic medal in Greco. If I'm him, that's my only athletic priority this year. Especially since any time in folk detracts from Greco training thanks to that pesky no legs rule.

Right you are, sorry,mask too tight on head.

 

[STAND with PRIDE]

Not to mention the real risk that we may run out of golf course starters and rangers.
Then what do we do?

From sailboat, to Skellars, now you are driving golf cart ??

 

[STAND with PRIDE]

I suspect Seth will wrestle this year, but he did NOT use his redshirt last year. He wrestled. Or was that some other HWT that got us all twisted up for losing to Traub?


Manville has a legit shot at an Olympic medal in Greco. If I'm him, that's my only athletic priority this year. Especially since any time in folk detracts from Greco training thanks to that pesky no legs rule.

So true bout MM, geez that kid cant catch a break, sure hope he can qualify and bring home some bling.

Speaking of qualifying... has his weight even been qualified for the USA?

 

[NothingMeaningful]

@dbldoofus

People have died. In Pennsylvania, about 7,000 have died and over 5,000 were in nursing homes (who were forced to take them, despite being the last place you want ANY communicable disease). That's in a state of 13M. If you are over 60, and or have multiple comorbidities, you need to be careful-but for the young and healthy, this is a chance to acquire a new immunity-and when 30% or so have it-we have herd immunity.

It's really time to stop whipping this up in to the plague-it's not, and we need to start living normally again. We take chances with all kinds of perils, driving a car, working around HAZ-MAT, eating a nice juicy hamburger and oh yes picking up some woman in bar.

Enough with the sanitary panic.

(8,000 and not 7,000)

When hospitals were threatened with being overrun, where else would you put COVID-19 patients? The fault was not in sending them to LTCFs, but that the LTCFs failed to adequately put into place the requisite precautions (given that most LTCFs are for-profit, that stands to reason). This is what happened in NY and NJ.

For the record, herd immunity has never been reached for any disease without an effective vaccine. We would only get to herd immunity with a massive death toll. Even if COVID-19 had an IFR of .5%, that'd mean 650,000 deaths in Pennsylvania alone. It is true that younger people have much lower death rates, but they are just as infectious as others, and you cannot isolate everyone with co-morbidities.

Last I checked, nobody else dies if I eat a hamburger. Dying in a car accident doesn't cause first responders to die, either.

You are repeating talking points that have been refuted for many months.

 

[dicemen99]

(8,000 and not 7,000)

When hospitals were threatened with being overrun, where else would you put COVID-19 patients? The fault was not in sending them to LTCFs, but that the LTCFs failed to adequately put into place the requisite precautions (given that most LTCFs are for-profit, that stands to reason). This is what happened in NY and NJ.

For the record, herd immunity has never been reached for any disease without an effective vaccine. We would only get to herd immunity with a massive death toll. Even if COVID-19 had an IFR of .5%, that'd mean 650,000 deaths in Pennsylvania alone. It is true that younger people have much lower death rates, but they are just as infectious as others, and you cannot isolate everyone with co-morbidities.

Last I checked, nobody else dies if I eat a hamburger. Dying in a car accident doesn't cause first responders to die, either.

You are repeating talking points that have been refuted for many months.

Additionally, every time I hear his argument the tone is just "a bunch of old people died - they are going to die anyway."

It's just incredible callous and egocentric. Of course, being callous and egocentric is admirable to 40% of the country - they call it "winning."

Every time I get shocked about this stuff, I just think back to the Lt. Governor of Texas stating that these "old people" would be ok with dying because they don't want to compromise the economy. The mental gymnastics going on because of the upcoming election put the HR to shame. Orwell's "doublethink" might have been undersold in his look at a dystopian future.

 

[IAChief32]

I know everyone has an opinion on this stuff but let me say that after seeing what has happened to my board because of the political crap, I would urge youse to take it over to an off topic board

 

[82bordeaux]

I know everyone has an opinion on this stuff but let me say that after seeing what has happened to my board because of the political crap, I would urge youse to take it over to an off topic board

Can I like this more than once?

 

[82bordeaux]

From sailboat, to Skellars, now you are driving golf cart ??

I'm a man of many talents bruh!

 

[Petch]

Additionally, every time I hear his argument the tone is just "a bunch of old people died - they are going to die anyway."

It's just incredible callous and egocentric. Of course, being callous and egocentric is admirable to 40% of the country - they call it "winning."

Every time I get shocked about this stuff, I just think back to the Lt. Governor of Texas stating that these "old people" would be ok with dying because they don't want to compromise the economy. The mental gymnastics going on because of the upcoming election put the HR to shame. Orwell's "doublethink" might have been undersold in his look at a dystopian future.

I propose we make all Interstates and highways 25mph....save lots of lives. You in?

 

[82bordeaux]

I propose we make all Interstates and highways 25mph....save lots of lives. You in?

We'd lose many more than 200,000 from strokes and aneurysms. You need another argument.

 

[jtothemfp]

I know everyone has an opinion on this stuff but let me say that after seeing what has happened to my board because of the political crap, I would urge youse to take it over to an off topic board

And with an excellent Central Pennsylvanian 'youse' drop to boot!

Thanks, Chief!

 

[86PSUPaul]

Can I like this more than once?

No, but now you can LOVE it... thanks to the new "reactions"

Admins, please clean this up.....

 

[Petch]

We'd lose many more than 200,000 from strokes and aneurysms. You need another argument.

Good point...didn’t think about that...nor the potential depression/suicide spike.

 

[dbldoofus]

I like the scientific approach here, but the proposed formula is wrong. It’s wrong because (1) we should not apply a population death rate to a grossly non-random (skewing old or sickly) subpopulation, and (2) our non-random subpopulation is an undercount because many surely died of COVID without ever getting a COVID test.

Flaw-(1) would overcount COVID deaths, and Flaw-(2) would undercount COVID deaths.

The better formula is simply overall excess deaths, i.e., deaths above what would be expected based on recent (Pre-COVID) per-month death counts. Essentially, what KBay asked for.

(I imagine the excess deaths would be much higher than any edge fuzziness due to fewer car-accident deaths or more suicide deaths, etc. than usual. Much edge fuzziness can probably be estimated away if necessary.)

Your points are 100% valid and a much more accurate approach than the oversimplified approach I mentioned.
I am sure it can still be estimated, but it's a lot of work to get rid of the skew you mention.

I think it is obvious that barring the pandemic or other such mortality disruption, the number would be way way way less (that is a scientific term 😁 ) than 201,120.

 

[dbldoofus]

Look, *everybody* wants to open up all the way back to normal, *if* there were no cost.

But there is a cost to opening up further. So, it is not helpful for us to loudly proclaim we should buy more opening up, if we don’t know the price and we don’t know our budget.

We should actually just say how many excess deaths would make us comfortable (our budget), and then we can open up to the extent and duration that would kill the right number of people. But how much opening up would we actually receive at the expense of 100,000 (or 200,000 or 1,000,000 or whatever) additional excess deaths above what our current level of opening up would produce by a target date? Nobody has said, in this thread.

If we don’t say our budget, and we don’t say how much we would get for paying our budget, then how would we know whether we are advocating buying a pig in a poke?

Actually, there was an upper limit mentioned in this forum on the price. The upper limit was mentioned to be below that of “the plague,” which must mean the Black Death’s killing of 30 to 50 percent of the population of Europe over four years. With only that upper limit mentioned, our rallying cry so far is that we should open up more because merely less than 30 percent of us all would additionally die within four years. Hmm. That would help only if we are a country of extravagant spenders of lives!

In short, we all want to open up, and all the governors are taking tentative steps, with mistakes and inconsistencies, but it’s not as if we can realistically just start to “live normally”. We have to find and keep some sort of tolerable trade-off between cost and benefit.

It’s just too bad that we are now starting from such a bungled initial response and high current baseline and that we have so divided our population away from teamwork that we can’t even all wear the simple mask.

Dog, that is very well put. I will delete my one response as yours is so much better.

 

[psumacw]

no commentary from me here on what should or shouldn't be done in politics, just a link to the CDC's Excess Deaths page: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

basically since 2/1/20 we're 274K deaths above the expected deaths and 208K above the 95% confidence interval for deaths.

 

[NothingMeaningful]

I know everyone has an opinion on this stuff but let me say that after seeing what has happened to my board because of the political crap, I would urge youse to take it over to an off topic board

I agree that *politics* should be left out of this discussion. I'll point out, however, that the pandemic is the biggest and most important wrestling story of the year, if not ever, and discussions about re-opening things like the wrestling season must have facts, not political talking points.

As a fan of Cornell wrestling, I would like nothing better than to have a full-fledged wrestling season, as I've been looking forward for the past two years to a Big Red lineup that could challenge Iowa and PSU.

As a father of a HS daughter and a husband of a HS teacher, it is more important that we get this re-opening right, not fast.

Two guesses which of the above takes precedence for me.

 

[CJLion]

The wrestling forum was the last bastion that didn't include Covid discussions....Mods, please plug the hole and send the Covid discussions to Test Board, McAndrew, even Lions Den

 

[Shifty15]

LOL. Not at this rate. Latest # is 200,005. If the normal death rate were applied to that #, how many more people would be alive if there were not a pandemic?

(No politics here unless you insert them. I gave a fact (200,005 deaths) and a formula proposed to show how many more people would probably not have died if there were no ongoing pandemic here. )

Let's keep it apolitical. To say that this many people would have died this year is just silly.

The death total is bs and CDC admitted as much. You want to quote Facts....use accurate facts...which in this case is impossible because they have distorted actual COVID deaths to the nth degree.

 

[82bordeaux]

The conversation has become a disservice to the three young men in the title of the OP.

 

[NothingMeaningful]

The death total is bs and CDC admitted as much. You want to quote Facts....use accurate facts...which in this case is impossible because they have distorted actual COVID deaths to the nth degree.

 

[El-Jefe]

The conversation has become a disservice to the three young men in the title of the OP.

The board is infected, and the masks have been dropped.

 

[dicemen99]

I propose we make all Interstates and highways 25mph....save lots of lives. You in?

No. Not that this analogy is relevant to my post.

I suppose I could point out that seat-belt laws and many of the government regulated safety requirements for vehicles most likely would not be in place if interstates and highways were posted 25mph, but that is taking us down a path we should stay away from - as others have pointed out. But that's a lot more analogous to what we are talking about.

 

[Petch]

No. Not that this analogy is relevant to my post.

I suppose I could point out that seat-belt laws and many of the government regulated safety requirements for vehicles most likely would not be in place if interstates and highways were posted 25mph, but that is taking us down a path we should stay away from - as others have pointed out. But that's a lot more analogous to what we are talking about.

I could continue this, but as others (82, el jefe, etc.) have indicated...not the appropriate forum. Peace....

...and I see it more likely RBY at 133, Bartlett at 141, and Lee at 149....but what the hell do I know. However they line up, it will be pain for our opponents.

 

[johnstownsteel]

I know everyone has an opinion on this stuff but let me say that after seeing what has happened to my board because of the political crap, I would urge youse to take it over to an off topic board

You're missing something Chief. The political stuff over there is the reason I quit trolling over there.

So...its really not so bad now is it?

😆

 

[Dogwelder]

From sailboat, to Skellars, now you are driving golf cart ??

Bordeaux is the Melissa McCarthy Hero of wrestling!

 

[CurtisLoew40]

It would make the most sense to me anyway. Well rby would get choice since I'm assuming he would beat Bartlett in a wrestle off. So rby, Bartlett, then lee. Lee does need to move up tho. It makes the whole team better.
Rby could be the future of 61 and maybe 65.

 

[Hoosier Lion]

It would make the most sense to me anyway. Well rby would get choice since I'm assuming he would beat Bartlett in a wrestle off. So rby, Bartlett, then lee. Lee does need to move up tho. It makes the whole team better.
Rby could be the future of 61 and maybe 65.

Nick Lee is the future of 65kg

 

[Ja1339]

Nick Lee is the future of 65kg

@Hoosier Lion do you have any thoughts on the idea of Nick redshirting this year and moving to 49 next year? I seem to recall you saying he’s very comfortable at 41.

 

[matter7172]

The biggest problem is cases and deaths are higher now than they were in April. Let that sink in. Five months later and we are doing worse. And that's with restrictions.

 

[82bordeaux]

 

[AndEEss]

@Hoosier Lion do you have any thoughts on the idea of Nick redshirting this year and moving to 49 next year? I seem to recall you saying he’s very comfortable at 41.

I feel like I’ve heard people say he doesn’t have to cut much at all to make 141. 149 would mean he’s got to be putting in some serious work with the weights.

 

[NoVa Lion]

Nick Lee is the future of 65kg

Zain may have something to say about that.

 

[STAND with PRIDE]

Wino is tenderizing his meat again.

 

[Pitchfork Rebel]

Look, *everybody* wants to open up all the way back to normal, *if* there were no cost.

But there is a cost to opening up further. So, it is not helpful for us to loudly proclaim we should buy more opening up, if we don’t know the price and we don’t know our budget.

We should actually just say how many excess deaths would make us comfortable (our budget), and then we can open up to the extent and duration that would kill the right number of people. But how much opening up would we actually receive at the expense of 100,000 (or 200,000 or 1,000,000 or whatever) additional excess deaths above what our current level of opening up would produce by a target date? Nobody has said, in this thread.

If we don’t say our budget, and we don’t say how much we would get for paying our budget, then how would we know whether we are advocating buying a pig in a poke?

Actually, there was an upper limit mentioned in this forum on the price. The upper limit was mentioned to be below that of “the plague,” which must mean the Black Death’s killing of 30 to 50 percent of the population of Europe over four years. With only that upper limit mentioned, our rallying cry so far is that we should open up more because merely less than 30 percent of us all would additionally die within four years. Hmm. That would help only if we are a country of extravagant spenders of lives!

In short, we all want to open up, and all the governors are taking tentative steps, with mistakes and inconsistencies, but it’s not as if we can realistically just start to “live normally”. We have to find and keep some sort of tolerable trade-off between cost and benefit.

It’s just too bad that we are now starting from such a bungled initial response and high current baseline and that we have so divided our population away from teamwork that we can’t even all wear the simple mask.

"teamwork that we can’t even all wear the simple mask. "


Eight months ago, I had no immune system thanks to a bit of medical malpractice and was told the seasonal flu (not COVID) was "particularly nasty" this year. I was told to wear a mask if you have to go out, but it's not going to protect you from viruses, especially because it is not an N95, properly fitted and there's risks to wearing them, so simply just don't go out. That's COMPLETELY avoid public places (not go to Home Depot but not Church).

The reason I don't want to wear the mask is because I know it's nothing but hygienic sanctimony. I know what hypoxia is, hypercapnia and pulmonary mycosis are. The mask isn't simple, it's for simpletons who don't know they are supposed to be single use in a sterile environment. Mask advocacy has become my single biggest barometer of medical stupidity. To suggest a visibly soiled handkerchief worn bank robber style is anything but a vector of cross-contamination is as bright as a box of rocks.

There are costs to what we have been doing. A friend's Dad was scheduled for heart surgery, and it was postponed in favor of stabilizing medication. He got up after dinner and died. The death cert will say things such as"cardiac infaction" "congestive heart failure"; it won't say "result of lockdown due to uncritical acceptance of Ferguson model by politicians". Doctors are having to tell patients, yes go to the ER if you have chest pain.

The implicit problem with your rant is that you think that governors know what they are doing, that they are all well-intentioned and there's one size fits all "solution", when there's only trade-offs. Abbott, Cuomo and Whitmer are looking in the mirror imagining being addressed as "Mr/Madame. President", Wolf wants to be the first Cabinet Secretary of the Department of Cannabis and DeWine might just be bat guano crazy.

If you had a more sophisticated and informed knowledge of government you'd realize that the important thing is to appear to be doing something dramatic and conspicuous. They know they'll never be held to account for being wrong, inadequate or excessive, but get hammered as indifferent if they appear to do nothing or even too little.

And when you compare this to the plague, it's hard not to notice you don't have a clue.

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H. L. Mencken

 

[PAHURDLER]

Jesus, take this garbage off this thread.

 

[PASLP2]

Lee is a title contender at whichever weight he lands.

 

[NothingMeaningful]

"teamwork that we can’t even all wear the simple mask. "


Eight months ago, I had no immune system thanks to a bit of medical malpractice and was told the seasonal flu (not COVID) was "particularly nasty" this year. I was told to wear a mask if you have to go out, but it's not going to protect you from viruses, especially because it is not an N95, properly fitted and there's risks to wearing them, so simply just don't go out. That's COMPLETELY avoid public places (not go to Home Depot but not Church).

The reason I don't want to wear the mask is because I know it's nothing but hygienic sanctimony. I know what hypoxia is, hypercapnia and pulmonary mycosis are. The mask isn't simple, it's for simpletons who don't know they are supposed to be single use in a sterile environment. Mask advocacy has become my single biggest barometer of medical stupidity. To suggest a visibly soiled handkerchief worn bank robber style is anything but a vector of cross-contamination is as bright as a box of rocks.

There are costs to what we have been doing. A friend's Dad was scheduled for heart surgery, and it was postponed in favor of stabilizing medication. He got up after dinner and died. The death cert will say things such as"cardiac infaction" "congestive heart failure"; it won't say "result of lockdown due to uncritical acceptance of Ferguson model by politicians". Doctors are having to tell patients, yes go to the ER if you have chest pain.

The implicit problem with your rant is that you think that governors know what they are doing, that they are all well-intentioned and there's one size fits all "solution", when there's only trade-offs. Abbott, Cuomo and Whitmer are looking in the mirror imagining being addressed as "Mr/Madame. President", Wolf wants to be the first Cabinet Secretary of the Department of Cannabis and DeWine might just be bat guano crazy.

If you had a more sophisticated and informed knowledge of government you'd realize that the important thing is to appear to be doing something dramatic and conspicuous. They know they'll never be held to account for being wrong, inadequate or excessive, but get hammered as indifferent if they appear to do nothing or even too little.

And when you compare this to the plague, it's hard not to notice you don't have a clue.

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H. L. Mencken

Huh. https://www.businessinsider.com/56-got-coronavirus-south-korea-starbucks-mask-wearers-did-not-2020-8