B1G Expansion

12375CAT

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Predictable to us that are paying attention
The Big Ten is evaluating the worthiness of adding Cal, Oregon, Stanford and Washington from the Pac-12 to expand its conference to at least 20 teams, sources told CBS Sports this week.
Edit: Miami, Florida State and Notre Dame also being mentioned. I hope they get to 24 just to watch the meltdown.
This evaluation will either make or break the P12.
If the B10 decides not to pry loose the Huskies & the Ducks then the P12 will survive for the time being.
There is just no way you will break the ACC GOR.
ND trying to negotiate a deal for some shoulder programming for Domers v (other P5)
conference opponents. They assume they can make $75 million/season.
 
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KCLion

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Jun 8, 2001
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This evaluation will either make or break the P12.
If the B10 decides not to pry loose the Huskies & the Ducks then the P12 will survive for the time being.
There is just no way you will break the ACC GOR.
ND trying to negotiate a deal for some shoulder programming for Domers v (other) conference opponents. They assume they can make $75 million/season.
Pry loose? Huskies and Ducks would bow to Kevin Warrdn if invited.
 
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LandoComando

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This evaluation will either make or break the P12.
If the B10 decides not to pry loose the Huskies & the Ducks then the P12 will survive for the time being.
There is just no way you will break the ACC GOR.
ND trying to negotiate a deal for some shoulder programming for Domers v (other) conference opponents. They assume they can make $75 million/season.
Notre Dame won't get 75M in my opinion
If they add Washington, Oregon along with Stanford and Cal (confused by Cal) it will be interesting how they get to 24 from there and how much say ND will have in that.
 

Ian

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Predictable to us that are paying attention
The Big Ten is evaluating the worthiness of adding Cal, Oregon, Stanford and Washington from the Pac-12 to expand its conference to at least 20 teams, sources told CBS Sports this week.
Edit: Miami, Florida State and Notre Dame also being mentioned. I hope they get to 24 just to watch the meltdown.
Those PAC 12 additions will happen along with Utah, Colo., and Az. in the next couple of yrs. Book it. Not so fast on Miami and FSU. Don’t fit.
 

wilbury

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Those PAC 12 additions will happen along with Utah, Colo., and Az. in the next couple of yrs. Book it. Not so fast on Miami and FSU. Don’t fit.
Agreed - those Pac 12 additions are probably already close. The mention of Miami and FSU might be more of a shot across the bow of the SEC than anything else. With the current ACC GOR, I don't see it happening soon plus those schools fit better with the SEC and they'd probably sooner be in the SEC.

ND is probably looking to combine a deal with the Big 12 or ACC that will get them the money they are looking for so they can stay independent for a few more years at least.
 

OaktonDave

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ND is probably looking to combine a deal with the Big 12 or ACC that will get them the money they are looking for so they can stay independent for a few more years at least.
I think you are spot on. From ND's perspective, they have managed to enjoy the best of both worlds. They are in a conference where it best suits their interests and independent where it serves their traditions and interests without hurting their bottom line. I don't see them changing until staying the course isn't possible or they are falling way behind financially.
 

wilbury

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I think you are spot on. From ND's perspective, they have managed to enjoy the best of both worlds. They are in a conference where it best suits their interests and independent where it serves their traditions and interests without hurting their bottom line. I don't see them changing until staying the course isn't possible or they are falling way behind financially.
The addition of USC/UCLA and Stanford (if the Big Ten gets them) could make moving to the Big Ten acceptable to ND purists since they already have a history of playing Purdue, MSU and Michigan. If the Big Ten can further expand the conference very soon, they might be able to get ND sooner rather than later. If not, they'll package a TV deal and remain independent a while longer.
 

sandiegohawk

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I read somewhere the $75M is for football only and is highly unlikely, it's more of a ridiculous proposal to see if NBC bites on it. Assuming 7 home games, is NBC really going to pay $10M per game? Doubtful.
No clue on how desperate NBC is but $10 million per game with a ND home lineup that looks like this?

Marshall
Cal
Stanford
UNLV
BYU (neutral field that I think NBC has the rites to)
Clemson
Boston College

I'd bet that 5 of those teams don't sell half their tickets this season in their own stadiums.
 
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tlbakernc

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If you lived in Miami area you would know that unless they're playing Notre Dame, Penn state or Florida State, etc. they have no fans. They play in stadiums 30% full for home games. They would be a terrible addition to the Big 10
Fans in stands at Miami mean nothing to Big 10. It’s all about adding the Florida TV market to increase revenue.
 
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doctornick

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Latest scuttle butt is that ND will be happy if they can get their NBC deal to $75 mil and remain independent. ND has enough money and can stand firm with where they are at. The NCAA will continue to make a place for them in the playoff. They might never make a move.
Notre Dame can ask but I don’t see NBC being crazy enough to pay that much. That’s over $10 million per game and those inevitably include one or two against MAC level cupcakes (plus a few against middling ACC teams).
 

wilbury

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Notre Dame can ask but I don’t see NBC being crazy enough to pay that much. That’s over $10 million per game and those inevitably include one or two against MAC level cupcakes (plus a few against middling ACC teams).
ND is trying to combine a deal with either the big 12 or ACC. If they can pull it off they can easily get that much.
 

LandoComando

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ND is trying to combine a deal with either the big 12 or ACC. If they can pull it off they can easily get that much.
They aren't getting 75M. It's illogical because they'd have to drop the Big Ten and SEC opponents if not more. And there goes high profile games. Good bye to playing USC.
 
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Wallace Breen

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This evaluation will either make or break the P12.
If the B10 decides not to pry loose the Huskies & the Ducks then the P12 will survive for the time being.
There is just no way you will break the ACC GOR.
ND trying to negotiate a deal for some shoulder programming for Domers v (other) conference opponents. They assume they can make $75 million/season.
All it takes is a Virginia School to sue to break the Grant of Rights. The legislature did not approve it so by law in Virginia, it is null and void for at least UVA and Tech. Likely Pitt, UNC and NC State as well.
 

12375CAT

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All it takes is a Virginia School to sue to break the Grant of Rights. The legislature did not approve it so by law in Virginia, it is null and void for at least UVA and Tech. Likely Pitt, UNC and NC State as well.
If the Cavaliers & Hokies were invited it would be very interesting.
I don't think they bring enough value to the B10 &/or $EC to be considered.
If South Carolina has the same law then Clemson would have already bolted to the $EC.
 

doctornick

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ND is trying to combine a deal with either the big 12 or ACC. If they can pull it off they can easily get that much.
I have no idea what this means. The ACC is locked into their TV deal for a long while and isn’t negotiating squat. The Big 12 will be working on a new deal for the 2025-26 school year (which is why UT/OU are leaving that year and not before) but aren’t going to be getting much given their future membership of commercially mediocre schools. I don’t see how doing anything with them would help ND.
 

africamurphy

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I think this is going to wrap up by next weekend. The Pac-10's evaluation window ends on August 4. We'll get news this week about the Pac-10 (minus UCLA and USC) getting about 25 million per school.

That won't be acceptable to UW or Oregon. They'll gladly take partial shares in the Big Ten for the first 5 years.

Which will drop the Pac-10's evaluation down even lower (they won't get an official quote...but it's easy to surmise that it'll dip below 20 million).

That will spark the Four Corners schools to jump to the Big 12 and earn 30 million in the next deal, which not only is more money (duh) but more stability for the next decade in a 16-team Big 12 than in an 8-team Pac-12 (which has very poor choices to replace UCLA, USC, UW, and UO).

Stanford and Cal will be at a crisis point...not wanting to slum it in the MWC or the Big 12 (if they were even offered).

And then there's a chess match. Does Notre Dame finally blink and come with Stanford as teams 19 and 20? Or...do they stand pat again and does Cal receive a lifeline?

Kevin Warren said the Big Ten's TV deal would be announced very soon...and there's no way they "wrap up" their deals only to add 2 or 4 more schools in 6 months or a year. Grab your popcorn....this show's not quite over yet.
 

wilbury

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I think this is going to wrap up by next weekend. The Pac-10's evaluation window ends on August 4. We'll get news this week about the Pac-10 (minus UCLA and USC) getting about 25 million per school.

That won't be acceptable to UW or Oregon. They'll gladly take partial shares in the Big Ten for the first 5 years.

Which will drop the Pac-10's evaluation down even lower (they won't get an official quote...but it's easy to surmise that it'll dip below 20 million).

That will spark the Four Corners schools to jump to the Big 12 and earn 30 million in the next deal, which not only is more money (duh) but more stability for the next decade in a 16-team Big 12 than in an 8-team Pac-12 (which has very poor choices to replace UCLA, USC, UW, and UO).

Stanford and Cal will be at a crisis point...not wanting to slum it in the MWC or the Big 12 (if they were even offered).

And then there's a chess match. Does Notre Dame finally blink and come with Stanford as teams 19 and 20? Or...do they stand pat again and does Cal receive a lifeline?

Kevin Warren said the Big Ten's TV deal would be announced very soon...and there's no way they "wrap up" their deals only to add 2 or 4 more schools in 6 months or a year. Grab your popcorn....this show's not quite over yet.
Very possible. If Stanford, Cal, UW and Oregon move to the Big Ten soon, it could force ND's hand.
 

africamurphy

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If all four of them are announced, there's no room for ND. Cal-Berkley seems to be our "Texas Tech" problem of this round of realignment.

If they get left out, future US president Gavin Newsome will go ballistic over Cal being relegated to the WCC or Independence. He'll throw the full weight of the state against the Big Ten. Notre Dame or Cal are team #20. (Stanford, UW, and Oregon are shoe-ins...but that's 19 teams.) I'm starting to wonder if that's the fly in the ointment of the Big Ten's plan for 20.

(Remember, Gordon Gee and OSU were talking to Texas about joining the Big Ten in 2011...but UT's president said he had a "Texas Tech problem" that kept them from moving without Texas Tech having an invite too)
 

doctornick

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Cal is not going to be a problem. The government can hem and holler but ultimately they’d rather UCLA get a lifeline than both UC schools getting left behind. Much like other states, the politicians will realize they aren’t helping anyone but kneecapping UCLA - same reason Oklahoma St and Texas Tech et al we’re left behind and Oklahoma & Texas allowed to change conferences without them.

I really don’t see Cal being added. The school presidents would love ‘em due to the academics but they won’t carry their weight financially. Stanford is the better fit in terms of athletics and name recognition despite being private if the Big Ten is determined to get a Bay Area school.

I actually think (just my guess) that the Big Ten is squeamish about Oregon both in terms of academics (they’ll probably be kicked out of AAU soon and are weaker than any other Big Ten school including Nebraska) and the long term prospects of their athletics (ie what happens when Phil Knight is no longer around). Oregon also isn’t a big market overall as a new state.
 

psu00

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I still don’t get the Stanford and Cal love. They literally bring nothing to the table. Even worse, they both lose you lots of money.

If you’re going to take a team that loses you money, I’d much rather it be Oregon, Washington, Clemson, Florida State, or even Colorado and Miami. At least they’ll bring some history and interest to potential matchups. Stanford and Cal are another Rutgers type addition.
 
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retsio

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I am so tired of the ND rumor/conjecture/hypothesis of will they or won't they.

Notre Dame has turned down TWO very polite and inclusive INVITATIONS to join the Big Ten.

Enough of this noise and FORGET any playing time for their teams ! Why should any conference bow down and beg for the golden helmets sponsored by NBC/Comcast ?
 

LongJakk

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My guess is that UC regents won't be able to stop UCLA, but they will do enough arm twisting to force UCLA into playing Cal every year.
 
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wilbury

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Cal is not going to be a problem. The government can hem and holler but ultimately they’d rather UCLA get a lifeline than both UC schools getting left behind. Much like other states, the politicians will realize they aren’t helping anyone but kneecapping UCLA - same reason Oklahoma St and Texas Tech et al we’re left behind and Oklahoma & Texas allowed to change conferences without them.

I really don’t see Cal being added. The school presidents would love ‘em due to the academics but they won’t carry their weight financially. Stanford is the better fit in terms of athletics and name recognition despite being private if the Big Ten is determined to get a Bay Area school.

I actually think (just my guess) that the Big Ten is squeamish about Oregon both in terms of academics (they’ll probably be kicked out of AAU soon and are weaker than any other Big Ten school including Nebraska) and the long term prospects of their athletics (ie what happens when Phil Knight is no longer around). Oregon also isn’t a big market overall as a new state.
If they get both Cal and Stanford it likely gets them enough eyes to demand that the Big Ten network gets on the basic cable tier which means that everyone pays not just stanford/cal fans and that's what it's really all about.