Anyone here read or listen to Peter Zeihan? I find his perspective very interesting.

GreggK

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He makes a lot of his predictions based on demography and geography. For instance, he predicted years ago that Russia would HAVE to do what they are doing now (even the year) because of demographics and geography. He also see's China collapsing in the next decade or so.


 

The Spin Meister

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An altered state
He makes a lot of his predictions based on demography and geography. For instance, he predicted years ago that Russia would HAVE to do what they are doing now (even the year) because of demographics and geography. He also see's China collapsing in the next decade or so.



Good stuff. Like I have said, this is far less about NATO expansion then it is about Mother Russia.
 

GreggK

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Good stuff. Like I have said, this is far less about NATO expansion then it is about Mother Russia.

I have listened to a lot of his stuff lately and I can only speak for myself, but his thoughts really seem to be what mine are on this stuff, or rather, his thoughts give reinforcement to my gut feelings.

I find his thoughts on China to be particularly interesting.

He is actually VERY bullish on the prospects of America, as am I. Which is something that drives me crazy about the left and the right these days.
 

LionDeNittany

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Good stuff. Like I have said, this is far less about NATO expansion then it is about Mother Russia.

While I agree, the NATO expansion was what forced Putin's hand.

You can safely assume it would happen over the next 10 years. But it didn't need to happen this year.

And with Putin near end of life, it may have never happened.

That's where I question the entire affair.

LdN
 

LionDeNittany

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He makes a lot of his predictions based on demography and geography. For instance, he predicted years ago that Russia would HAVE to do what they are doing now (even the year) because of demographics and geography. He also see's China collapsing in the next decade or so.




As I have said many times... where would you like to place your capial?

Europe
US
Japan
China

Those are your options.

That's why you can be bullish the US.

However when the law no longer matters, we become China. And that is why there is such pushback against the democrats.

Don't like loans? We will forgive them.

You are making too much money? We will create a special tax for you.

Your company isn't doing what we want? EPA coming to get you.

Things we historically would view as impossible are becoming reality.
We are moving to a 'Brazil' film like bureaucracy.

Without the law we have nothing.

LdN
 

The Spin Meister

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While I agree, the NATO expansion was what forced Putin's hand.

You can safely assume it would happen over the next 10 years. But it didn't need to happen this year.

And with Putin near end of life, it may have never happened.

That's where I question the entire affair.

LdN
NATO wasn’t going to expand. Germany and others said Ukraine wouldn’t be admitted. It happened now for three reasons. One is a very weak Magoo. Putin acted W’s last months in office when he was very weak. Acted again when that ‘powerful’ Obama/Biden team was in office. Didn’t do squat when Trump was the man because Trump is a crazy man. Magoo is back and ‘ BOOM!’ Putin acts again.
Two, the Afghanistan debacle was so bad that every NATO member heavily criticized Magoo. NATO was extremely pissed about it and Putin thought that would ha per any reaction they would have to his invasion. Fortunately, NATO, led by Poland and the Baltic states stood up.
Three, Putin is apparently seriously ill. He is obsessed with recreating Mother Russia for his legacy in history.
 
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GreggK

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NATO wasn’t going to expand. Germany and others said Ukraine wouldn’t be admitted. It happened now for three reasons. One is a very weak Magoo. Putin acted W’s last months in office when he was very weak. Acted again when that ‘powerful’ Obama/Biden team was in office. Didn’t do squat when Trump was the man because Trump is a crazy man. Magoo is back and ‘ BOOM!’ Putin acts again.
Two, the Afghanistan debacle was so bad that every NATO member heavily criticized Magoo. NATO was extremely pissed about it and Putin thought that would ha per any reaction they would have to his invasion. Fortunately, NATO, led by Poland and the Baltic states stood up.
Three, Putin is apparently seriously ill. He is obsessed with recreating Mother Russia for his legacy in history.

Dude, Putin was going to do this no matter who was in office. Thats the whole point.

What most likely would have happened if Trump was in office is he would have just taken it.
No sanctions, no war. And then moved on. Is that better? I don't think so, others disagree, but point is, he goes after Ukraine no matter what.
 
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The Spin Meister

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Dude, Putin was going to do this no matter who was in office. Thats the whole point.

What most likely would have happened if Trump was in office is he would have just taken it.
No sanctions, no war. And then moved on. Is that better? I don't think so, others agree, but point is, he goes after Ukraine no matter what.
Seriously doubt he would have if Trump had been re-elected. Trump was a wild card. No way to predict his reaction. But Trump hammered Russia hard over Syria so that made Putin wary.
 

LionDeNittany

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NATO wasn’t going to expand. Germany and others said Ukraine wouldn’t be admitted. It happened now for three reasons. One is a very weak Magoo. Putin acted W’s last months in office when he was very weak. Acted again when that ‘powerful’ Obama/Biden team was in office. Didn’t do squat when Trump was the man because Trump is a crazy man. Magoo is back and ‘ BOOM!’ Putin acts again.
Two, the Afghanistan debacle was so bad that every NATO member heavily criticized Magoo. NATO was extremely pissed about it and Putin thought that would ha per any reaction they would have to his invasion. Fortunately, NATO, led by Poland and the Baltic states stood up.
Three, Putin is apparently seriously ill. He is obsessed with recreating Mother Russia for his legacy in history.

I didn't say Ukraine was going to be admitted. I have no way of confirming that.

What i said is we ratcheted up the rhetoric at precisely the wrong time... or the right time if you want war.

LdN
 
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GreggK

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Not true. That's, at best, a guess.
Putin had all the cover he needed with this inept admin.

LdN

If you take Putin at his word on this, combined with the illness he MAY have, I believe it was going to happen.
And yeah, it is a guess, but then again, this is a messageboard and im not a politician.

BTW, if you have a chance, give one of those Peter Zeihan video's a listen.
 

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