"Of course, the obvious solution is to keep the coal generators running –
but this would require an outbreak of political common sense."
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AEMO: Replacing Coal with Renewables will Cause Blackouts
Eric Worrall
August 11, 2016
The Australian Energy Market Operator, the government body responsible for ensuring the stability of Australia’s energy supply, has issued a stark warning that closure of coal plants will dramatically increase the risk of widespread blackouts – that building additional renewable capacity will not compensate for the loss of coal capacity.
From the
MEDIA RELEASE
THURSDAY, 11 August 2016
Strategic, efficient investment required to support Australia’s energy transformation
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Read more: http://www.aemo.com.au/Media-Centre...d-to-support-Australias-energy-transformation
This warning confirms my assertion in a previous post that South Australia cannot provide stable electricity grid supply without access to Victorian coal power, supplied via the interstate interconnector. South Australian political pretensions to renewable policy success are nonsense.
The report leaves open the possibility that more battery capacity, massive investment in more interconnectors, or supply management might reduce instability.
In my opinion arguing that more connectedness will lead to stability doesn’t pass the smell test.
Imagine if all the interconnections anyone could want were available. Imagine say half of Australia was covered in clouds. The solar arrays in the sunny parts of Australia would have to produce not only enough power for local needs, they would also have to produce enough power to supply the parts of Australia which weren’t able to carry their own load.
Carry the game a little further. Say 4/5 of Australia was covered in clouds. Or 7/8 of Australia was covered in clouds.
As you explore increasingly unlikely but still very possible adverse conditions, you quickly reach a point where a significant chunk of Australia would have to be covered in expensive renewable installations, to provide the massive supply overcapacity required to achieve partial stability through interconnectedness.
Batteries are also not a real solution, at least with today’s technology. Storage systems such as organic redox batteries, which in theory might one day provide energy storage on the scale required, are still very much a laboratory toy.
The third possible solution, “supply management” – South Australians have already had a taste of that. I doubt a “supply management” policy of deliberately encouraging spot power prices to spike up to $14 / KWh when renewable generation fails will attract many supporters.
Of course, the obvious solution is to keep the coal generators running –
Eric Worrall
August 11, 2016
The Australian Energy Market Operator, the government body responsible for ensuring the stability of Australia’s energy supply, has issued a stark warning that closure of coal plants will dramatically increase the risk of widespread blackouts – that building additional renewable capacity will not compensate for the loss of coal capacity.
From the
MEDIA RELEASE
THURSDAY, 11 August 2016
Strategic, efficient investment required to support Australia’s energy transformation
“As the NEM generation mix continues to keep pace with new technology and policy changes, future supply adequacy will depend on the availability and capability of new supply options providing electricity services when needed,” said AEMO Chief Operating Officer Mike Cleary.
AEMO has modelled the
impact of withdrawing a further 1,360 MW of coal-fired generation capacity
to meet the COP21 commitment under AEMO’s neutral scenario, with results suggesting
in South Australia from 2019-20, and New South Wales and Victoria from 2025 onwards.
“To maintain a secure electricity supply demand balance during peak demand periods, AEMO is working closely with industry to identify both network and non-network developments. Possible solutions could include an increased interconnection across NEM regions, battery storage, and demand side management services,” said Mr Cleary.
AEMO has modelled the
impact of withdrawing a further 1,360 MW of coal-fired generation capacity
to meet the COP21 commitment under AEMO’s neutral scenario, with results suggesting
potential reliability breaches occurring
in South Australia from 2019-20, and New South Wales and Victoria from 2025 onwards.
“To maintain a secure electricity supply demand balance during peak demand periods, AEMO is working closely with industry to identify both network and non-network developments. Possible solutions could include an increased interconnection across NEM regions, battery storage, and demand side management services,” said Mr Cleary.
=========
Read more: http://www.aemo.com.au/Media-Centre...d-to-support-Australias-energy-transformation
This warning confirms my assertion in a previous post that South Australia cannot provide stable electricity grid supply without access to Victorian coal power, supplied via the interstate interconnector. South Australian political pretensions to renewable policy success are nonsense.
The report leaves open the possibility that more battery capacity, massive investment in more interconnectors, or supply management might reduce instability.
In my opinion arguing that more connectedness will lead to stability doesn’t pass the smell test.
Imagine if all the interconnections anyone could want were available. Imagine say half of Australia was covered in clouds. The solar arrays in the sunny parts of Australia would have to produce not only enough power for local needs, they would also have to produce enough power to supply the parts of Australia which weren’t able to carry their own load.
Carry the game a little further. Say 4/5 of Australia was covered in clouds. Or 7/8 of Australia was covered in clouds.
As you explore increasingly unlikely but still very possible adverse conditions, you quickly reach a point where a significant chunk of Australia would have to be covered in expensive renewable installations, to provide the massive supply overcapacity required to achieve partial stability through interconnectedness.
Batteries are also not a real solution, at least with today’s technology. Storage systems such as organic redox batteries, which in theory might one day provide energy storage on the scale required, are still very much a laboratory toy.
The third possible solution, “supply management” – South Australians have already had a taste of that. I doubt a “supply management” policy of deliberately encouraging spot power prices to spike up to $14 / KWh when renewable generation fails will attract many supporters.
Of course, the obvious solution is to keep the coal generators running –
but this would require an outbreak of political common sense.
