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2022 Conference Allocations

@RoarLions1 great job with your analysis! 141 was the only weight you were off by more than 1

125: 9 easy, possible 10 if Cardini's Win % (9-7) holds up
133: 9 easy, Gliva & Burwick have outside shots at earning a spot
141: 9 easy, outside shot for Rooks
149: 7 easy, 8 likely
157: 6 easy, better than 50-50 Model earns a spot
165: 6 easy, 7 likely (Fish), outside shot at more (Wilson, Edsell)
174: 7 easy, 8 likely (Fisher), outside shot at 9 (McNally, poor Win % & RPI)
184: 10 easy?? (sounds high, but the back-end of 184 is loaded
197: 9 easy, 11 possible (Smith, Foy, my guess is one of these for 10)
285: 9 easy, no more, no less
 
@RoarLions1 great job with your analysis! 141 was the only weight you were off by more than 1

125: 9 easy, possible 10 if Cardini's Win % (9-7) holds up
133: 9 easy, Gliva & Burwick have outside shots at earning a spot
141: 9 easy, outside shot for Rooks
149: 7 easy, 8 likely
157: 6 easy, better than 50-50 Model earns a spot
165: 6 easy, 7 likely (Fish), outside shot at more (Wilson, Edsell)
174: 7 easy, 8 likely (Fisher), outside shot at 9 (McNally, poor Win % & RPI)
184: 10 easy?? (sounds high, but the back-end of 184 is loaded
197: 9 easy, 11 possible (Smith, Foy, my guess is one of these for 10)
285: 9 easy, no more, no less
Thanks. Spent a good bit of time on it. I was surprised to hear Micic didn't earn a spot. No RPI, and Win% of 60% didn't get him into top-30. Counted on him as one for 141.
 
Does getting allocated a spot mean you have a solid shot at the at large if you weren't to get an auto at conferences? Both Creighton and Bartlett allocated one.
 
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Has a conference ever had 12 before?
Yes. 133 in 2015 had 12.

2022 is the most ever for the conference, topping 2015's 86, and significantly more than most years. In fact, for the year averages, 2016-2020, it works out to an extra wrestler per weight class.

2022 - 88
2021 - 66
2020 - 79
2019 - 78
2018 - 80
2017 - 77
2016 - 71
2015 - 86
 
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Does getting allocated a spot mean you have a solid shot at the at large if you weren't to get an auto at conferences? Both Creighton and Bartlett allocated one.
It means they were already Gold or Silver standard. Add in the conference tournament results and it's likely they will easily be Bronze. In fact, can't imagine they won't be.

Once you're Bronze, the criteria kicks in and the comparisons begin. It really depends on how many good wrestlers in their weight classes don't get an AQ from their conference tournament. Odds are solidly in their favor, especially Bartlett.
 
Thanks. Spent a good bit of time on it. I was surprised to hear Micic didn't earn a spot. No RPI, and Win% of 60% didn't get him into top-30. Counted on him as one for 141.
Why is it 7? Using the 70-30-30 standard, who wasn't allocated?

Wrestler WP-Coach-RPI

Lee 100-1-n/a
Eierman 94-2-n/a
Rivera 100-3-3
Red 73-10-n/a
Bergeland 71-15-7
D'Emilio 71-18-19
Zargo 63-19-10
Filius 70-24-20

The WP I took from Wrestlestat, so there may be some quirk to that calculation, but Lee, Eierman, and Red are the only guys who depend on WP as one of the two criteria to hit. Did one of them really not get an allocation?!? Rivera, Bergeland, D'Emilio, Zargo, and Filius are all top 30 in both rankings.
 
Why is it 7? Using the 70-30-30 standard, who wasn't allocated?

Wrestler WP-Coach-RPI

Lee 100-1-n/a
Eierman 94-2-n/a
Rivera 100-3-3
Red 73-10-n/a
Bergeland 71-15-7
D'Emilio 71-18-19
Zargo 63-19-10
Filius 70-24-20

The WP I took from Wrestlestat, so there may be some quirk to that calculation, but Lee, Eierman, and Red are the only guys who depend on WP as one of the two criteria to hit. Did one of them really not get an allocation?!? Rivera, Bergeland, D'Emilio, Zargo, and Filius are all top 30 in both rankings.
Red didn't get an allocation according to the Pirate.
 
You the real MVP jmadden!

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Which I can’t figure out. His win against a kid from Nebraska-Kearney doesn’t count but he still was 10-4 without that for a 71% win percentage.
Any chance it’s SeaBass due to injury? Is he no longer listed as the starter?
 
Which I can’t figure out. His win against a kid from Nebraska-Kearney doesn’t count but he still was 10-4 without that for a 71% win percentage.
I thought all matches wrestled at weight counts regardless of division? So Iowa's matches against Non D1 guys at Luther didn't?
 
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I thought all matches wrestled at weight counts regardless of division? So Iowa's matches against Non D1 guys at Luther didn't?
Nope. That’s why very few have RPI rankings even though they have over 15 matches. Only D1 matches count.
 
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Why are there only 28 total pre-allocations at 141 according to ncaa.com (if Red was also qualified)?

Edit: my point being they didn’t even read the 29 allocation max, so it wasn’t that either.
This all makes no sense. At some point, even a bureaucracy as incompetent as the NCAA has to realize leaving 2 AAs out of the allocated spots is going to screw guys who deserve to be in. I get that Micic didn’t earn an allocation, fine, but just give one to Red for Christ’s sake. It’s only the right thing to do.
 
Willie tweeted about 141. There were 33 wrestlers who met 2 out of the 3 criteria. They have to get to 29 at the most so they move the win% up .1 and the coaches ranking and the RPI down 1 spot until they get to 29. They had to use .740 win% and 26 or better coaches ranking and RPI. Once they did this, only 28 qualified for an allocation. Red didn’t make it because of win%. If he would have had one more match against a D1 opponent he would have been eligible for RPI and would have certainly been ranked there and secured an allocation.
 
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I’m
Willie tweeted about 141. There were 33 wrestlers who met 2 out of the 3 criteria. They have to get to 29 at the most so they move the win% up .1 and the coaches ranking and the RPI down 1 spot until they get to 29. They had to use .740 win% and 26 or better coaches ranking and RPI. Once they did this, only 28 qualified for an allocation. Red didn’t make it because of win%. If he would have had one more match against a D1 opponent he would have be eligible for RPI and would have certainly been ranked there and secured an allocation.
Thank you.

Supports what Willie has been saying about guys not wrestling enough matches.
 
This all makes no sense. At some point, even a bureaucracy as incompetent as the NCAA has to realize leaving 2 AAs out of the allocated spots is going to screw guys who deserve to be in. I get that Micic didn’t earn an allocation, fine, but just give one to Red for Christ’s sake. It’s only the right thing to do.
It’s all based on win%, coaches ranking and RPI to generate an allocation. Anyone can then earn a spot by finishing high enough at their conference tourney.
 
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This all makes no sense. At some point, even a bureaucracy as incompetent as the NCAA has to realize leaving 2 AAs out of the allocated spots is going to screw guys who deserve to be in. I get that Micic didn’t earn an allocation, fine, but just give one to Red for Christ’s sake. It’s only the right thing to do.
Or, maybe Red could've competed at Daktronics Open. Labriola got three D1 matches in that tourney.

Red had competed in 2 duals before Daktronics.
 
Bartlett deep dive. With 7 AQ spots;
1) Win 1st 2 bouts, or
2) Win 1st bout, lose, then win two in wrestlebacks, or
3) Lose 1st bout, then win three in wrestlebacks
All of these will earn an auto-qualifier spot.

If he does not earn a spot, having 2 wins long the way sets him up nicely for an at-large selection. Thing is, at that point it depends on how ALL of the conference tourneys go. A comparison using; HTH, Quality Wins, CR, Common Opponents, RPI, Event Placement, and Win % will be made. Having a fairly low Win % (Bartlett's is 64%) doesn't hurt as much here as it is only 10% of the comparison.

-- Assuming no HTH...
-- The wins against Parco and Artalona are huge for Quality Wins.
-- CR = 16, and shouldn't go down much if he wins 2.
-- Common opponents is a wild guess at this point.
-- RPI = 13, and shouldn't move much if he wins 2.
-- Winning 2 gets at least an 8th place finish, one out of AQ in the toughest conference in the country

Which leads me to the guys that can knock him off at the at-large step. At a minimum, they are; Finesilver, Wilson, Andonian, Gfeller, Murin, Lovett, Thomas, Sasso, Van Brill, Gomez, Diakomihalis, Artalona, Robinson, Parco, Abas, Millner and Heil. That's 17 wrestlers of which 4 would have to fail to win an AQ spot at their conference tournament. Very unlikely. Others would be close, so this isn't the actual list.

I like his chances almost every way it's sliced. Going 0-2 would be a killer, and 1-2 doesn't help, but that's it.
 
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