Summary from Row 1 as the sand begins to drain from the Spring Training hourglass -
1- It’s always difficult learning anything from ST games but let’s start with something tangible-lineup construction. I was told last week that the analytics people have a much larger impact across baseball now and that some teams structure their lineup based on their direction versus what the manager feels and says. So, the biggest news late in camp is the move involving McCutchen and Cesar. I don’t understand it. Was told they like the power that McCutchen brings to the leadoff spot. Again, don’t understand that. It seems to me that McCutchen would be better served hitting in more run producing situations than Cesar. Just give me the guy who you think sees more pitches and who will have a better On Base Percentage, not the nonsense of power as a part of the leadoff decision. I don’t think you are making Cesar comfortable at all hitting him sixth. I did make the comment that if the geeks are that important that they should do a feature on them and put some names and faces out there.
2- They HAVE to be dramatically improved offensively. Last year, they wanted people to hit like Santana. They wanted their hitters to see a lot of pitches and the end result was they K’d a lot on deep counts. They should have their hitters look at Realmuto and Segura and try that this year. The results will be better. These guys consistently hit to the whole field and make hard contact. I think Realmuto is going to have a BIG year and extending him will become an immediate priority. Offensively, I think you know what you will get with the exception of Franco and Odubel. The early 2019 Franco looks like the hitter I’ve seen before, a guy who still wants to yank everything, I haven’t been impressed. Herrera, I just don’t know since he’s been hurt for so much this spring. I do think that the seasons these 2 have will go a ways in determining if they win 86 or 92 games. The lineup is REALLY lengthened if these two are productive. It almost becomes an AL lineup if these guys step up.
3- Obviously, everything is focused on Harper. My buddy has watched him play every game in his career in Washington. To be honest, his read has not always been positive. I have LOVED everything I’ve seen. He is ridiculously patient. My buddy says he has had stretches where he becomes pull happy and undisciplined, chasing pitches. I haven’t seen that at all. Harper has said he thinks he hits well to the non pull side and if he stays patient and doesn’t press, I think he’s the league MVP. One person who I respect more than anyone else says that most players who get big deals press too hard. He said Howard was like that. He thinks the big deal will actually HELP Harper a lot. On a personal side, I think Philly will love this guy. He’s been humble and engaging, even when you have seen him out at breakfast. He is the type of guy who needs to feel comfortable and he felt that with Middleton. I think he likes to compete and get dirty a bit and knows Philly is that town. I think he embraces it big time.
4 - Pitching, who knows. I think they will be OK. There is upside but also concern as well. I think they will eventually make a move at some point either with a lefty addition at the break or with Eickoff internally. I focused most on Vince and Pivetta. Both guys seem to really focus on their fastballs. They have to throw secondary pitches more frequently in my opinion. If hitters feel comfortable sitting red, they can hurt them. Both of these guys can overpower you, but you don’t have success against MLB hitters who love to hit the fastball and who know it’s coming. I don’t particularly like the bullpen. They have a better collection of overall talent for sure but I’m not sure I like it. Robertson’s lack of velocity was a bit surprising and I didn’t like Seranthony even a little bit. The ball looked consistently flat coming out of his hand. I really think Kimbrel was a move for them, warts and all.
5- 2 other guys I focused on a lot were Kingery and Nick. The Phillies have mismanaged these types of guys recently in my opinion. Kingery is certainly bigger and I wonder why. Is it because he wears down or do they want him to drive the ball more? If it’s the latter, bad move. He’s best when he throws his hands at the ball and he’s short and compact. His swing seemed longer and a bit loopy. If it’s him trying to drive it and that’s his approach or their approach with him, they are hurting him. Nick must be tired of hearing me say to him every day on the on deck circle to keep grinding and to hit his way onto the field. Body language seems off. He knows he has no place to play and looked down a bit to me. I still think this guy is a productive starting player, it won’t be here though. He’s going to hit 20 plus somewhere but the Phillies will wind up giving him away.
So, 2 games to go before the car gets packed. It’s always hard doing this. I think it’s 4 guys- Franco, Odubel, Vince, and Robertson (assuming he closes). If these guys are productive, I see 92 wins in a very tough division and NLCS at least. Some warts, I see 86-88 wins and a battle to the finish line. They have a HARD September so they need to be positioned well by the time the kids go back to school.
Here is to a fun summer and hopefully some October baseball!