Just one man's opinion, but this kid gets my vote as "most likely to transfer" within a couple of years. Clearly, he wasn't "all in" as demonstrated by his midnight call to CJF just hours before he was supposed to sign his LOI. In addition, he admits that he was going to sign with Texas up until the moment he chose the PSU ball cap.
A couple of other nagging issues - didn't he visit State College only twice? If so, I would bet that was the fewest visits that any of the class of 19 commits made to State College. I am sure someone can correct me if I am wrong. One of the biggest strengths of CJF's recruiting efforts is to literally recruit the entire family - the kid, his siblings, his parents, etc. Most of the commentary you hear from the commits is all about the family atmosphere and the total program at PSU - the academics, the community, the atmosphere, etc..
I didn't see much of that from Cain - his comments were more along the lines of "that stuff doesn't matter - its all about what happens on the field" - he's ready to be the next Saquon (nothing wrong with that goal). He's already stated his objective is to be here for 3 years. Again, nothing wrong with that and maybe he will be the next Miles Sanders - somebody who was willing to be patient for 2 years and then get his shot in his 3rd year.
The running back room is pretty crowded with outstanding talent - Sanders (if he returns), Slade, Brown, the transfer from ND, Ford, and Cain. Is he likely to get the playing time he wants to be happy and stay here for 3 years? Will a kid from Louisiana/Texas/FL be willing to sit behind a couple of other talented players for a good part of his first couple of years or will he decide to head back down south?
Certainly, this can play out in a number of ways - he may have a GREAT career at PSU or he may see little time and transfer. Best of luck to him and I hope he has a great college football experience at PSU first of all, or elsewhere if it doesn't work out for him here.