170 Points

[regularfan]

So I was doing some research today on how Iowa did to score 170 points at nationals and set the team record in 1997: https://nwhof.org/NCAA-Brackets/PDF/NCAA 1997.pdf

Since I know this is a sore subject around here, Iowa did not have any pigtails and they did not get advancement for "byes" into round of 32 as Penn State does not have any pigtails either this year.

I think Penn State will end up just north of 160 points but just found this stuff to be interesting. It would not shock me to see the team score fall since they just seem to always click but they will need a nearly flawless tournament.

Takeways:
Penn State has better seeds entering the tournament
First thing I noticed is that Penn State this year based on seeds would outscore what Iowa was predicted to score based on seeds going into the tournament.

2019 PSU should score 94 placement points and 31.5 placement points for a total of 125.5 (without bonus): Three 1st seeds, three 2nd seeds, 3rd seed, 10th seed, 12th seed, did not qualify

1997 Iowa should have scored 70 advancement points and 27 advancement points for a total of 97 points (28.5 points less than PSU is predicted this year)
However, all of Iowa seeds except for their #1's outperformed their seeds. They only seeded to 12 that year as they have done up until this season:

Iowa 1997 seeds: Three 1st seeds, 4th seed,5th seed, 6th seed, 11th seed, three unseeded
Iowa 1997 Actual placements: Five 1st, one 2nd, one 5th, one 6th, two round 12
118 lbs. - 6th seed got first
126 lbs.- 4th seed got second
135 lbs. - 1st seed go first
142 lbs. - Unseeded placed sixth
150 lbs. - 1st seed got first
158 lbs. - 1st seed got first
167 lbs. - 11th seed got fifth
177 lbs. - unseeded made it to round of 12
190 lbs. - 5th seed got first
275 lbs. - unseeded made it to round of 12
That total gave them 105 placement points and 33 advancement points = 138 total (13.5 more than PSU is predicted to finish with this year.

Bonus
Iowa finished with 32 bonus points that year (all but one person got bonus at some point): Averaged 3.2 bonus points per individual. Kasey Gillus (142 lbs.) and Joe Williams (158 lbs.) led the team with 5 bonus points.

Scores by round
Not sure if they held it in six sessions back then but using the same session scheduling this would have been Iowa's score after each round

After Thursday morning: 20.5 points (Round of 32)

After Thursday night: 36.5 points (16 in session; Round of 16, Consi pigtails, one full consolation)

After Friday morning: 91.5 points (55 in session; Quarterfinals (win is 7 plus bonus), two round of consolations

After Friday night: 149 points (57.5 in session, semifinals (win is 7 more plus bonus), two rounds of consolations

After Saturday morning: 150 points (1 point in session, consi semis, 3rd/5th/7th placements)

After finals: 170 points (championship bouts; four points plus bonus for win)

Iowa Record by round
Round of 32: 9-1
Round of 16: 6-3
Quarterfinals: 6-0
Semifinals: 6-0
Championships: 5-1
Overall record in championship bracket was 32-5

Consolation 1: 1-0 (round of 32 losers join)
Consolation 2: 4-0 (round of 16 losers join)
Consolation 3: 4-0
Round of 12: 2-2 (quarterfinal losers join but Iowa was 6-0 in quarters)
Consolation quarters: 2-2
Consolation semifinals: 0-2 (semifinal losers join but Iowa was 6-0 in round)
Placing matches: 1-1
Consolation record was 14-5

Overall record for the tournament was 45-10

 

[jrod65]

This brings back memories. This was the 1st Nationals that I ever attended. Re-word this a bit and post it on HR. You would be an instant favorite.

 

[regularfan]

Just for reference. Here are the top 20 team scores of all time

1. 1997 Iowa 170
2. 1986 Iowa 158
3. 1991 Iowa 157
4. 1983 Iowa 155
5. 2005 Oklahoma State 153
6. 1992 Iowa 149
7. 2017 Penn State 146.5
8. 1985 Iowa 145.25
9. 2012 Penn State 143
10. 2003 Oklahoma State 143
11. 2018 Penn State 141.5
12. 2001 Minnesota 138.5
13. 2010 Iowa 134.5
14. 1995 Iowa 134
15. 2018 Ohio State 133.5 (2nd place team)
16. 1987 Iowa State 133
17. 1982 Iowa 131.75
18. 1981 Iowa 129.75
19. 2002 Minnesota 126.5
20. 2001 Iowa 125.5 (2nd place team)

Other PSU National championships
1953 - 21 points (only placed four, but Penn State also had just one champ)
2011 - 103.5 points
2013 - 123.5 points
2014 - 109.5 points
2016 - 123 points

 

[NathanWynn77]

I don’t know how I came up with this, but on my excel sheet bracket, I have Penn St scoring 170.5. I was probably generous with bonus, but I could see them breaking the record this year, with 7 possible finalists, 9 AAs and lots of bonus.

 

[dmm53]

Having only 9 of 10 possible wrestlers scoring makes the challenge extra difficult.

 

[diggerpup]

.... but I could see them breaking the record this year, with 7 possible finalists, 9 AAs and lots of bonus.

That’s basically a near-perfect tourney for PSU.

 

[tbay165]

I don’t know how I came up with this, but on my excel sheet bracket, I have Penn St scoring 170.5. I was probably generous with bonus, but I could see them breaking the record this year, with 7 possible finalists, 9 AAs and lots of bonus.

7 finalists????

 

[Cali_Nittany]

7 finalists????

With 7 guys seeded in the top 3, it's not outside the realm of possibility. Or are you expecting more than 7 finalists? That would be highly unlikely.

 

[matter7172]

That’s basically a near-perfect tourney for PSU.

And, still, not quite as good as Iowa's in 1997.

 

[Beezy14]

Pretty encouraging actually for the hope of breaking the record as I had assumed it wasn’t going to be possible at all, especially with only 9. But, a fairly conservative bonus estimate gets us to matching the 32 number:

33 - 1
41- 2
49 - 1
57- 6
65 - 4
74 - 4
84 - 4
97 - 8 (high, but I believe he will be pushing very hard to pin all 5)
285 - 2
= 32

Those aren’t unrealistic bonus numbers at all for this team imo. We’ve seen the team wrestle mostly above or not too far below their seeds at this tournament, so at least I’ll have something to root for with the team component.

 

[matter7172]

Pretty encouraging actually for the hope of breaking the record as I had assumed it wasn’t going to be possible at all, especially with only 9. But, a fairly conservative bonus estimate gets us to matching the 32 number:

33 - 1
41- 2
49 - 1
57- 6
65 - 4
74 - 4
84 - 4
97 - 8 (high, but I believe he will be pushing very hard to pin all 5)
285 - 2

Those aren’t unrealistic bonus numbers at all for this team imo. We’ve seen the team not wrestle too far below seeds at this tournament, so at least I’ll have something to root for with the team component.

Penn State has the best current record of performing at or above seed, so I'm sanguine. I have a feeling this is the year.

 

[liex26]

No way. Never happen. Impossible.

Hoping Crow is on the Menu Saturday Night.

 

[lionlover]

That’s basically a near-perfect tourney for PSU.

To be clear, I am OK with that.

 

[STAND with PRIDE]

168, is this not the most balanced team we’ve sent? Next year we fall back to the pack

 

[SWPA]

I'd love to see 170 but I came up with 148.5 so there is no way PSU gets 148.5 and they are probably going to be closer to 170.

 

[SRATH]

The 170 figure is very impressive. While we win comfortably, 150 would be a really good number for PSU. I don’t see any of our guys wildly exceeding expectations like the Iowa team and their bonus rate was fantastic.

 

[RoarLions1]

Just for reference. Here are the top 20 team scores of all time

1. 1997 Iowa 170
2. 1986 Iowa 158
3. 1991 Iowa 157
4. 1983 Iowa 155
5. 2005 Oklahoma State 153
6. 1992 Iowa 149
7. 2017 Penn State 146.5
8. 1985 Iowa 145.25
9. 2012 Penn State 143
10. 2003 Oklahoma State 143
11. 2018 Penn State 141.5
12. 2001 Minnesota 138.5
13. 2010 Iowa 134.5
14. 1995 Iowa 134
15. 2018 Ohio State 133.5 (2nd place team)
16. 1987 Iowa State 133
17. 1982 Iowa 131.75
18. 1981 Iowa 129.75
19. 2002 Minnesota 126.5
20. 2001 Iowa 125.5 (2nd place team)

Other PSU National championships
1953 - 21 points (only placed four, but Penn State also had just one champ)
2011 - 103.5 points
2013 - 123.5 points
2014 - 109.5 points
2016 - 123 points

Data above is correct, of course, but along the way there were scoring changes. For info only, here’s most;
— in 1979, Placement Points were: 16-12-9-7-5-3-2-1.
— that changed in 2001, to: 16-12-10-9-7-6-4-3.
— in 1985, a Tech Fall was added, worth 1 point, Superior Decision (up by 12 or more) was eliminated shortly thereafter.
— in 1986, wrestlers defeated by a quarter-finalist, competed in consolations. It had been semi-finalists.
— in 1995, Falls, ffts, dq’s, defaults, worth 2 bonus points, Majors now worth 1 (had been .5).
— in 1995, TFs eliminated, and was reinstated in 1997, now worth 1.5 points.
— and in 2013, I believe, the “free” advancement points were eliminated when the 32-man bracket was adopted.

 

[McScoreley]

7 Finalists is possible but not likely. Barring injury ... (knock on wood)

Nolf, Nickal are locks

Hall I'm as confident as can be as his biggest obstacle to the finals is Amine and he just finds ways to win those matches.

Cenzo ... I think his path and he just shows up in March. Expect his QFs and SFs to be heart attack worthy though.

Cassar has to get through Gable, which he just did but that match is a tossup. At least he avoids Dhesi unless he upsets Gable, in that case, that's just a whole other story in terms of styles.

Rasheed I like his side of the bracket but by no stretch is it easy. He'll likely have to go through a 2018 AA in Round 2 (Ness), Reenan/Geer in QFs then Zavatsky in SFs. I think if Sheed stays healthy, he'd win all 3 of those but by no stretch would I say he's a heavy enough favorite over all 3 that it's a lock.

Lee has to not mess up the first 3 rounds against wrestlers he'll clearly be favored against then has to wrestle very smart against a McKenna sucking down weight (so no surrendering late takedowns at the end of a period)

I'll predict 5 for now (like the last 3 years), the 4 murderers row member and one of Lee/Rasheed/Cassar.

 

[Lyons212]

7 Finalists is possible but not likely. Barring injury ... (knock on wood)

Nolf, Nickal are locks

Hall I'm as confident as can be as his biggest obstacle to the finals is Amine and he just finds ways to win those matches.

Cenzo ... I think his path and he just shows up in March. Expect his QFs and SFs to be heart attack worthy though.

Cassar has to get through Gable, which he just did but that match is a tossup. At least he avoids Dhesi unless he upsets Gable, in that case, that's just a whole other story in terms of styles.

Rasheed I like his side of the bracket but by no stretch is it easy. He'll likely have to go through a 2018 AA in Round 2 (Ness), Reenan/Geer in QFs then Zavatsky in SFs. I think if Sheed stays healthy, he'd win all 3 of those but by no stretch would I say he's a heavy enough favorite over all 3 that it's a lock.

Lee has to not mess up the first 3 rounds against wrestlers he'll clearly be favored against then has to wrestle very smart against a McKenna sucking down weight (so no surrendering late takedowns at the end of a period)

I'll predict 5 for now (like the last 2 years), the 4 murderers row member and one of Lee/Rasheed/Cassar.

If Lee gets McKenna, at least it will be Friday night where the serious weight suckers struggle.

 

[dunkej01]

If Lee gets McKenna, at least it will be Friday night where the serious weight suckers struggle.

If lee can avoid giving the TD at the buzzer in period 1 and 2 against mckenna I think he wins it.

McKenna will come out on fire. Lee needs to take him into deep water for the third and I think he can break him like he did in the regular season.

 

[matter7172]

In 1997, Iowa had a 6 seed (Witmer) and a 5 seed (Fullhart) pick up all the marbles at 118 and 190 and a 4 seed (Mena) reach the finals at 126. There were also other guys performing above seed and three 1 seeds holding theirs. So that is the kind of tournament you need. It's not unreachable. Have Nolf, Hall and Bo hold their #1; Shak hold #2; Lee, Joseph and Cassar wrestle a little above seed; Berge get on a roll and things fall into place for RBY and voila!

 

[dunkej01]

In 1997, Iowa had a 6 seed (Witmer) and a 5 seed (Fullhart) pick up all the marbles at 118 and 190 and a 4 seed (Mena) reach the finals at 126. There were also other guys performing above seed and three 1 seeds holding theirs. So that is the kind of tournament you need. It's not unreachable. Have Nolf, Hall and Bo hold their #1; Shak hold #2; Lee, Joseph and Cassar wrestle a little above seed; Berge get on a roll and things fall into place for RBY and voila!

On that note, Ill stop and buy a power ball ticket tonight and Ill take you all to Nationals first class!!!

 

[Used2BEerie]

On that note, Ill stop and buy a power ball ticket tonight and Ill take you all to Nationals first class!!!

Even if you don't win?

 

[RoarLions1]

Key is effort, effort, effort. Focus on effort for 7 minutes, good things happen.

 

[Lyons212]

If lee can avoid giving the TD at the buzzer in period 1 and 2 against mckenna I think he wins it.

McKenna will come out on fire. Lee needs to take him into deep water for the third and I think he can break him like he did in the regular season.

Agree, both times Lee has lost to McKenna he has given up a late TD in the period. Needs to borrow some of Mark Hall's awareness and poise for McKenna.

 

[RoarLions1]

Agree, both times Lee has lost to McKenna he has given up a late TD in the period. Needs to borrow some of Mark Hall's awareness and poise for McKenna.

McKenna is savvy like that. Saves energy for those late period takedowns, with far less chance for an escape. I still like Lee in the semi's, assuming they both get there, as he appears to have more endurance, but calling it a near toss-up.

 

[McScoreley]

One thing I am optimistic about with Nick is last year, Joey rode him like a rented mule both chances he got (1st period TD and when Nick chose down 2nd). He honestly came close to grabbing 2 NF points also (could have gone either way) The RT point was the difference in the dual last year. He wasn't able to really ride Nick this year. (likely cause Nick gets practice on bottom against Zain)

Nick always looks better in the 3rd against him, which makes sense, Nick's gas tank never runs out. That being said, RoarLions1 is spot on, it's not an accident Joey grabs late TDs in periods, it's part of his plan. Nick has to be aware and ready to defend those.

 

[LemonPie]

LOL

 

[Beezy14]

It was fun while it lasted..