“These universities say their students will return to campus in the fall”

[BobPSU92]

As expected, Penn State is not on the (short) list. No schools in the northeast are listed. No b1g schools either.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/30/us/universities-students-returning-fall-2020/index.html

This is what we’re up against.

 

[royboy]

Purdue University plans to reopen campus for fall 2020, saying coronavirus poses 'zero lethal threat' to students

https://thehill.com/changing-americ...ue-university-plans-to-reopen-campus-for-fall

 

[Lion84]

My Daughter is a graduating senior and picked a school in Georgia to attend - fingers crossed they open but it looks good at this point given Georgia is already was ahead on opening things up. I think schools in the NE are a crap shoot for the fall but at this point it's anyone's guess.

 

[Nitt1300]

I don't think anybody knows what July is going to look like- let alone September

 

[RGWhirly]

The list of schools having students on campus in fall will be long IMO.

 

[Kiber]

This is a point of topic I have questioned... 'Since the States are nor equal in terms of severity of the virus, or opening back up and resuming a level of normalcy, how is the NCAA going to handle the season?"

If the SEC schools they are ready to go back, bit the B1G schools are not, can the NCAA dictate to the SEC that they can not play? I got a feeling the SEC would tell Emmert to shove it.

 

[PennStateNate]

The list of schools having students on campus in fall will be long IMO.

Not sure.. I don't know if they are ready for all the kids to come back yet. All it will take is one to test positive and to start a potential outbreak.

 

[Lyons212]

Not sure.. I don't know if they are ready for all the kids to come back yet. All it will take is one to test positive and to start a potential outbreak.

Reality is that Covid has multiple strains making a vaccine impossible. Covid will be like the flu, every year some people are going to get it. Bottom line, this is something that we will be living with going forward. Most people who get Covid, show no symptoms, if you are relatively healthy, Covid most likely will not kill you. Yes, there will be bad outcomes for healthy people, just like there are bad outcomes for healthy people with the flu.

 

[royboy]

Not sure.. I don't know if they are ready for all the kids to come back yet. All it will take is one to test positive and to start a potential outbreak.

Not very lethal, esp. for most students in the age range.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

From Table 2 of the link (from 2/1/20 to 4/30/20)

Total US population 15-24 -- 42,970,880
Deaths from all causes -- 6,334
Covid-19 deaths -- 39
Deaths with pneumonia and Covid-19 -- 16

 

[Kiber]

Not sure.. I don't know if they are ready for all the kids to come back yet. All it will take is one to test positive and to start a potential outbreak.

I am not arguing with you. And not being contentious. Just saying that if we wait for this to be 100% eradicated. We will never go back to normal lives. I just do not see any time in the future of anyone saying "OK, we are 100% positive we are all totally safe and there is 0% chance of catching coronavirus".

At some point we all have to come to grips with the knowledge that some people moving fwd will catch the coronavirus, and they might be hospitalized (the overwhelming majority do not), and even worse some may die. But at what point do we all say, we have to go back to normal lives?? If we are basing decisions on "one test positive", then life as we all have known it is pretty much finished.

Remember, the idea of isolation, and social distancing, and quarantines, and shut downs... was never to eliminate coronavirus, but it was simply to allow hospitals, and the medical system to get ahead of the virus. Up until Feb/March there were no test procedures, no treatment protocols, no anti-bodies for coronavirus. Now, we have all that. Moving fwd the medical community is better equipped to identify, to test, to treat... the virus.

 

[bobroars]

The game of economic dominoes has to stop soon

 

[katchthis]

Reality is that Covid has multiple strains making a vaccine impossible. Covid will be like the flu, every year some people are going to get it. Bottom line, this is something that we will be living with going forward. Most people who get Covid, show no symptoms, if you are relatively healthy, Covid most likely will not kill you. Yes, there will be bad outcomes for healthy people, just like there are bad outcomes for healthy people with the flu.

Impossible ? Drug companies are spending upwards of one billion dollars to develop a vaccine for COVID.

 

[The Song Remains the Same]

This is a point of topic I have questioned... 'Since the States are nor equal in terms of severity of the virus, or opening back up and resuming a level of normalcy, how is the NCAA going to handle the season?"

If the SEC schools they are ready to go back, bit the B1G schools are not, can the NCAA dictate to the SEC that they can not play? I got a feeling the SEC would tell Emmert to shove it.

Well the SEC very, very, very rarely ever leaves the deep south to play a game, so there's that. I agree with you.

 

[Lyons212]

Impossible ? Drug companies are spending upwards of one billion dollars to develop a vaccine for COVID.

Which strain of Covid? It is a mutating virus. There has never been a successful corona virus vaccine for man or animal and there has certainly been big financial incentive to do so.

Best case scenario, they develop some kind of vaccine like the flu vaccine which in a good year has an effective rate of 45%, bad year in the single digits.

 

[katchthis]

Which strain of Covid? It is a mutating virus. There has never been a successful corona virus vaccine for man or animal and there has certainly been big financial incentive to do so.

Best case scenario, they develop some kind of vaccine like the flu vaccine which in a good year has an effective rate of 45%, bad year in the single digits.

Which strain of Covid? It is a mutating virus. There has never been a successful corona virus vaccine for man or animal and there has certainly been big financial incentive to do so.

Best case scenario, they develop some kind of vaccine like the flu vaccine which in a good year has an effective rate of 45%, bad year in the single digits.

Viruses like SARS , MERS, and Ebola did not flare up long enough that time and resources were significant enough to develop a vaccine.
From what I’ve read on COVID-19, obviously it mutates , but the observed mutation rate and surface changes appear to be slow. Much slower than seen in a typical flu virus .
Once again , drug companies are not going to be throwing billions of dollars down a black hole if it was impossible .
Plenty of brilliant doctors , and scientists are in the news everyday saying it’s possible . There has never been resources poured into a vaccine chase like what is going on currently .
99% of the world hopes they are right .

 

[anon_1eeb2b426hv3y]

Not very lethal, esp. for most students in the age range.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

From Table 2 of the link (from 2/1/20 to 4/30/20)

Total US population 15-24 -- 42,970,880
Deaths from all causes -- 6,334
Covid-19 deaths -- 39
Deaths with pneumonia and Covid-19 -- 16

How about the groups more resembling professors, administrators and staff?

 

[royboy]

How about the groups more resembling professors, administrators and staff?

How about them?

I provided the link to the CDC stats. What is your point?

 

[anon_1eeb2b426hv3y]

How about them?

I provided the link to the CDC stats. What is your point?

Only that focusing on the relative safety for student-aged participants paints an incomplete picture.

 

[Bertway0]

I would venture to say that those administrators/professors etc. will fall in the same boat of the many millions of other Americans that will be going back to work in the next 2 months. At least the college folks have until August.

 

[MJG-90]

This school not only intends to open, they intend to start a division one hockey program, hire a staff, recruit a team, build a schedule and play games — this fall and winter!!!

 

[bison13]

There are about 25 states that are having zero to 5 deaths per say right now, another dozen than are all within a week or so of that number based on current percentage drops. If people were smart they would start opening things up now to build immunity and see how things progress this summer before kids would go back to school. Have you started next week you two have any good 4 week trial before June 1st to see what the numbers look like. You can make your decision by June 15th and should still leave plenty of time to get things in order.

 

[PSU2UNC]

I've pulled the range of projected dates when deaths/per day = 0 for all Big 10 states from the IMHE model. They are below. The state lagging fartherest behind is Nebraska, who is projected to have zero deaths/day no later than July 3 (although I would point out that their deaths/per day are very low anyway).

Based on these projections, it seems like Big 10 schools should be planning on coming back for the fall and if the situation changes, the can postpone opening/start classes online.

From a football perspective, if you can have athletes on campus on July 1, there is no reason why the season can't start on time.

---
PA – May 13th to May 27th

OH – May 5th (something weird with projections for OH...not giving a date range)

MI- May 10 to May 20

IN- May 8 to May 19

NJ- May 14 to May 23

MD – May 9 to May 21

NE – May 14 to July 3

IA – May 12 to June 14

MN – May 21 to June 7

WI— May 4 to May 19

IL—May 8 to May 18

 

[katchthis]

There are about 25 states that are having zero to 5 deaths per say right now, another dozen than are all within a week or so of that number based on current percentage drops. If people were smart they would start opening things up now to build immunity and see how things progress this summer before kids would go back to school. Have you started next week you two have any good 4 week trial before June 1st to see what the numbers look like. You can make your decision by June 15th and should still leave plenty of time to get things in order.

Under 18, seems to be a population resistant to the virus according to CDC. data. When they reviewed 150,000 cases last week, under 2% involved ages 18 and under. This age group is being further examined to see what is helping with this resistance.

 

[BobPSU92]

Under 18, seems to be a population resistant to the virus according to CDC. data. When they reviewed 150,000 cases last week, under 2% involved ages 18 and under. This age group is being further examined to see what is helping with this resistance.

Maybe it’s their high levels of entitlement.

 

[Wallace Breen]

Not sure.. I don't know if they are ready for all the kids to come back yet. All it will take is one to test positive and to start a potential outbreak.

We are ready right now. The college demographic is the second lowest risk group in the country behind elementary to high school groups. Sure some gray bearded faculty members might need to give way to younger faculty but there is no reason schools should be closed right now (except in NYC) much less September.

 

[Tom McAndrew]

Reality is that Covid has multiple strains making a vaccine impossible. Covid will be like the flu, every year some people are going to get it. Bottom line, this is something that we will be living with going forward. Most people who get Covid, show no symptoms, if you are relatively healthy, Covid most likely will not kill you. Yes, there will be bad outcomes for healthy people, just like there are bad outcomes for healthy people with the flu.

Wow. Your statement is quite inaccurate.

CLICK HERE to read about the mutations that have taken place with COVID-19, which at this point are pretty minor.

 

[CentexLion]

Wow. Your statement is quite inaccurate.

CLICK HERE to read about the mutations that have taken place with COVID-19, which at this point are pretty minor.

Excellent article. Key take-away for those that don't want to read the entire article (which I encourage all to do):

In fact, researchers have found that the coronavirus is mutating relatively slowly compared to some other RNA viruses, in part because virus proteins acting as proofreaders are able to fix some mistakes. Each month, a lineage of coronaviruses might acquire only two single-letter mutations.

In the future, the coronavirus may pick up some mutations that help it evade our immune systems. But the slow mutation rate of the coronavirus means that these changes will emerge over the course of years.

That bodes well for vaccines currently in development for Covid-19. If people get vaccinated in 2021 against the new coronavirus, they may well enjoy a protection that lasts for years.

 

[CentexLion]

Excellent article. Key take-away for those that don't want to read the entire article (which I encourage all to do):

In fact, researchers have found that the coronavirus is mutating relatively slowly compared to some other RNA viruses, in part because virus proteins acting as proofreaders are able to fix some mistakes. Each month, a lineage of coronaviruses might acquire only two single-letter mutations.

In the future, the coronavirus may pick up some mutations that help it evade our immune systems. But the slow mutation rate of the coronavirus means that these changes will emerge over the course of years.

That bodes well for vaccines currently in development for Covid-19. If people get vaccinated in 2021 against the new coronavirus, they may well enjoy a protection that lasts for years.

And then there is this, from China Epidemiologist Li Lanjuan, whom recommended the lock-down of Wuhan. It takes one month for the virus to mutate. They had one patient that had three mutations over his 50 day stay. She uses a method called ultra-deep sequencing. Each building block of the virus genome was read more than 100 times, allowing the researchers to see changes that could have been overlooked by the conventional approach.

Conjecture is that the different strains could be the reason for the vastly different mortality rates across the world, and the reason that different therapies work better than others in different trials (please keep the different treatments coming!).

A China source, but seems she is certainly had the biggest head start of all researchers.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/sci...tions-affect-deadliness-strains-chinese-study

 

[bvillebaron]

Impossible ? Drug companies are spending upwards of one billion dollars to develop a vaccine for COVID.

Yeah I am more optimistic about the development of a vaccine than the other poster too. There has already been some decent progress on this front.

 

[Ian]

Hong Kong flu hit in 1968... anyone recall that for those of you who can? Not me. My dad said it was not big deal. Heck Woodstock was held. There was no social distancing, mask wearing, forced shutdowns. It’s insane.

https://www.aier.org/article/woodstock-occurred-in-the-middle-of-a-pandemic/

 

[interrobang]

100k deaths that affected mostly older people?

But the economy wasn't destroyed to "help" mitigate it.

What a world we live in today

 

[BringBackStoneys]

Hong Kong flu hit in 1968... anyone recall that for those of you who can? Not me. My dad said it was not big deal. Heck Woodstock was held. There was no social distancing, mask wearing, forced shutdowns. It’s insane.

https://www.aier.org/article/woodstock-occurred-in-the-middle-of-a-pandemic/

Explain to me again how a virus that killed 60,000 Americans in a month, amidst a historic lockdown, is equally lethal to a virus that killed 100,000 in a year with no lockdown?

 

[BobPSU92]

Explain to me again how a virus that killed 60,000 Americans in a month, amidst a historic lockdown, is equally lethal to a virus that killed 100,000 in a year with no lockdown?

100,000 in a year in 1968.

60,000 in a month in 2020.

Inflation.

 

[bdgan]

I don't think anybody knows what July is going to look like- let alone September

True, but they can't wait until the middle of August to decide.

 

[PSUinSTL]

Explain to me again how a virus that killed 60,000 Americans in a month, amidst a historic lockdown, is equally lethal to a virus that killed 100,000 in a year with no lockdown?

nobody knows how things would go with no lock down. Most of the people who are dead are those with less healthy life styles and the elderly in homes.

There are 2 big questions about your premise.

1) would those who have honestly sheltered in place be at high risk. My answer is probably not. Those with the means/jobs where they can stay at home tend to be in better health and thus less risk. People with better jobs earn more and tend to eat healthier (granted not all).

2) how tight of a lockdown do we have. Most people are going to grocery stores/getting takeout/ heading to beaches/parks/etc. yes we are minimizing risks but not eliminating them.

I’m not saying this thing isn’t severe. I’m not down playing it. I’m just pointing out comparisons claiming lockdown don’t work.

 

[novaclassof90]

Notice all those schools were making these announcements last week. May 1 was deposit day across the nation. No surprise these statements were made days before that. Schools had to publicly state they would have in person classes in the fall for fear of losing their freshman classes. If they can't do it safely, they will announce changes to the fall semester as the summer goes on.

 

[dtrainers]

Notice all those schools were making these announcements last week. May 1 was deposit day across the nation. No surprise these statements were made days before that. Schools had to publicly state they would have in person classes in the fall for fear of losing their freshman classes. If they can't do it safely, they will announce changes to the fall semester as the summer goes on.

I talked to the PSU admissions office on Friday and they said they would decide by June 15 whether they would be opening for on campus classes in the Fall.