OT: NBA Finals predictions

[simons96]

this is a tough match up for me. The Cavs are in synch and playing a very phsyical game on both ends of the court. The Warriors have such an explosive offense and one of the greatest scorers of all time.

I felt confident in the Warriors winning in 6 until watching the game last night. I realize there is a lot of time until game 1, but the Rockets just physically punished the Warriors despite losing in 5 games. Klay Thompson had his bell rung. Curry has been knocked down a bit. Fatigue may play a factor, and this may be where the Cavs bench continues to shine in assuming more minutes to give the starters some rest.

Warriors also have no finals experience on their roster. Kerr was a great finals player, not sure how that will translate as a coach. No team has won the NBA finals with ZERO Finals experience since the 1991-1992 Bulls.

I think the series comes down to the Cavs. and how well Iguodala can guard LBJ. If the role players on the Cavs hit their open shots when Lebron dishes them the ball, I think the Cavs win in 6. Don't think the Bogut/Lee clunky monster is as good as the Thompson/Mozgov machine either, so I see a lot of Cavs second chance points on the offensive boards.

I'll give a significant edge to the Warriors when it comes to home court advantage, the crowd at Oracle Arena is one of the more vocal. But I think the Cavs steal Game 1 and effectively take the crowd out of the series.

Should be a great series with some exciting basketball!

 

[Mister Magoo]

Golden State will win quite easily. The Cavs are injured and had a cakewalk to the Finals. Clippers/Spurs played in the opening round in the West. Either would give a healthy Cavs team a run for the money. This isn't a healthy Cavs team. Golden St isn't a flash in the pan. They went 67-15 in a very tough, Western Conference.

 

[Obliviax]

Going to be a great series but I am comfortable with the Cavs. Who on the Warrirs can stop LBJ? None of their small forwards can match up in size or speed. They will have to double team him and early. And that double team will have to come from one of their bigs, Green or Bogut. That will leave the rim undefended and open to offensive rebounds by Double T or Mozgov. If they choose to collapse on him from the perimeter, that will leave Kyrie, JR, Shumpert or Delly for the three. I don't think the warriors can stop the Cavs on their defensive side of the court.

On the other side, Curry and Thompson are the two best shooters, combined, that the league has ever seen. Covering them is a load. However, Delly is very physical and the combo of JR & Shumpert are very long and lean. I suspect that Curry will have to penetrate, which will cause him to get beat up in the paint. Also, its tougher to shoot the 3's in the finals, when the defense knows your plays and the refs swallow their whistles. However, with Kyrie playing at 80% ~ 90% due to injuries, containing those guys is a huge challenge.

ESPN analytics is giving GS a 78% chance of winning. However, their style of play is often considered a "regular season" team and not built for the more physical "second season". I am 50/50 but, baring injury, am comfortable backing the Cavs. They are just more flexible no matter how the games get played.

 

[Tom McAndrew]

On the other side, Curry and Thompson are the two best shooters, combined, that the league has ever seen.

They certainly are in the conversation for best combo. They will have to continue their pace for a few more years for me to move them into consideration for top 3, top 5.

The NBA has been around for a long time. Some duos that I would put in the conversation include (random order)

- Jerry West & Gail Goodrich (LA Lakers)
- Pistol Pete & Lou Hudson (Atlanta Hawks)
- Andrew Toney & Maurice Cheeks (76ers)
- Steve Nash & Dirk Nowitzki (Dallas Mavericks)
- Larry Bird & Danny Ainge (Celtics -- and I absolutely hated Ainge)
- Reggie Miller & Chuck Person (Pacers)
- Chris Mullin & Mitch Richmond (GS Warriors)
- Earl the Pearl & Clyde Frazier (Knicks)
- Rip Hamilton & Chauncey Billups (Pistons)
- Lew Alcindor & Oscar Robertson (Bucks)
- Dr. J. & Moses Malone (76ers)
- Michael J & Scottie Pippen (Bulls)
- Shaq & Kobe (Lakers)
- Tim Duncan & David Robinson (SA Spurs)
- Isaih Thomas & Joe Dumars (Pistons)

and that's just off the top of my head. If I put a little more time into it, I could probably name 20-30 more combinations that were lethal together for several years.

As for the series, it could be an excellent one.

 

[LafayetteBear]

As good as Lebron James is, he is only one guy. Mozgov/Thompson as an inside presence scares no one. The Dubs have already beaten three teams that all feature a better front court duo than the Cavs: Anthony Davis and Ryan Anderson, Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph, and Dwight Howard and Josh Smith.

Plus, the Dubs have more depth than any team in the league. David Lee, Harrison Barnes, Andrew Iguodala, and Shawn Livingston all come off the bench. All of them would start pretty much anywhere else.

Mozgov and Thompson are serviceable, and Shumpert is a good player, but Lebron and Irving (if Irving is physically ready to go) will have to play out of their gourds to beat the Warriors.

 

[Mister Magoo]

They certainly are in the conversation for best combo. They will have to continue their pace for a few more years for me to move them into consideration for top 3, top 5.

The NBA has been around for a long time. Some duos that I would put in the conversation include (random order)

- Jerry West & Gail Goodrich (LA Lakers)
- Pistol Pete & Lou Hudson (Atlanta Hawks)
- Andrew Toney & Maurice Cheeks (76ers)
- Steve Nash & Dirk Nowitzki (Dallas Mavericks)
- Larry Bird & Danny Ainge (Celtics -- and I absolutely hated Ainge)
- Reggie Miller & Chuck Person (Pacers)
- Chris Mullin & Mitch Richmond (GS Warriors)
- Earl the Pearl & Clyde Frazier (Knicks)
- Rip Hamilton & Chauncey Billups (Pistons)
- Lew Alcindor & Oscar Robertson (Bucks)
- Dr. J. & Moses Malone (76ers)
- Michael J & Scottie Pippen (Bulls)
- Shaq & Kobe (Lakers)
- Tim Duncan & David Robinson (SA Spurs)
- Isaih Thomas & Joe Dumars (Pistons)

and that's just off the top of my head. If I put a little more time into it, I could probably name 20-30 more combinations that were lethal together for several years.

As for the series, it could be an excellent one.

I think he just means shooters. Not scoring or 1-2 punches.

 

[simons96]

As good as Lebron James is, he is only one guy. Mozgov/Thompson as an inside presence scares no one. The Dubs have already beaten three teams that all feature a better front court duo than the Cavs: Anthony Davis and Ryan Anderson, Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph, and Dwight Howard and Josh Smith.

Plus, the Dubs have more depth than any team in the league. David Lee, Harrison Barnes, Andrew Iguodala, and Shawn Livingston all come off the bench. All of them would start pretty much anywhere else.

Mozgov and Thompson are serviceable, and Shumpert is a good player, but Lebron and Irving (if Irving is physically ready to go) will have to play out of their gourds to beat the Warriors.

in the last 6 games, Shumpert has averaged 10 PPG and 7 RPG, and played stellar defense against tougher guys.

JR Smith averaged almost 20 PPG and 8 RPG against Atlanta

cleveland has averaged over 10 offensive rebounds per game, against physical Eastern Conference teams.

and this was all with Kyrie Irving on the bench or hobbled. LBJ is in a zone all his own

more depth? jeez the Cavs haven't even played Kendrick Perkins LOL. Game 4 against the Hawks 6 guys scored in double figures.

I love the Dubz, I think Curry is one of the best pure shooters in the league, but the Cavs will come out and smack them in the teeth. this will be a grueling series.

 

[Mister Magoo]

Not sure what zone you guys are talking about. But, Lebron is shooting significantly worse than he did last year. .565 to .428 in the playoffs. Ya know, when he was on a more talented team and still got smoked by the Western Conf. Champions.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jamesle01.html

 

[simons96]

Not sure what zone you guys are talking about. But, Lebron is shooting significantly worse than he did last year. .565 to .428 in the playoffs. Ya know, when he was on a more talented team and still got smoked by the Western Conf. Champions.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jamesle01.html

LBJ had 95 assists in 20 playoff games last year

he has 116 so far in 14 games. he also has 18 blocks this year versus 11 last year. he already has 5 more rebounds than last year in 6 fewer games.

with the injuries to the Cavs (#3 offensive player is out, #2 has been hurt) Lebron has carried more of the offensive load this post season. he doesn't have the playmakers like Wade and Bosh any more. yes his shooting percentage is down, but all his other stats - especially his ability to create offense with other players - is way way up.

I've watched most of the Cavs games, he is on an amazing level this year.

 

[LafayetteBear]

What's the deal with his calf? Will a week of rest have him ready to go in the Finals?

 

[Mister Magoo]

LBJ had 95 assists in 20 playoff games last year

he has 116 so far in 14 games. he also has 18 blocks this year versus 11 last year. he already has 5 more rebounds than last year in 6 fewer games.

with the injuries to the Cavs (#3 offensive player is out, #2 has been hurt) Lebron has carried more of the offensive load this post season. he doesn't have the playmakers like Wade and Bosh any more. yes his shooting percentage is down, but all his other stats - especially his ability to create offense with other players - is way way up.

I've watched most of the Cavs games, he is on an amazing level this year.

He's been the best player in the league for a long time. He's no better now than he was in Miami. He didn't have to do as much in Miami because they had a better team. And, he still lost in the finals last year.

 

[simons96]

He's been the best player in the league for a long time. He's no better now than he was in Miami. He didn't have to do as much in Miami because they had a better team. And, he still lost in the finals last year.

one of my fondest memories of Jordan was the season when Rodman got suspended for 6 games, and MJ averaged 15 REBOUNDS during those 6 games. an amazingly versatile player (one of the best defenders as well) who had that rare ability to change his game as needed to win.

I think Lebron has assumed a SIGNIFICANTLY different role this season, and then again in the playoffs, than he did during his 4 years in Miami. And he's still getting it done. Few predicted the Cavs would make it back to the finals after Love got hurt. Lebron has been carrying this team, and motivating the other players to elevate their games (a la Jordan as well), but he is constantly making adjustments to help his team win.

The Heat beat the Spurs 2 years ago, mostly on their refusal to lose. The Spurs had their number last year, mostly through the improved play of the bench, but the three headed monster of Parker/Ginobli/Duncan were playing some of the best basketball the league has ever seen. that modified motion-triangle offense was what helped the Hawks win so many games this year, and Kerr is using a version of it in Golden State.

 

[john4psu]

The Warriors will have to beat the Cavs and the officials as LBJ will get every call.

Cavs in 7.

So in a few years what is left for LeBron to do? Ahhh, how long has it been since the Knicks have won a title? Not since Phil Jackson played for Red Holtzman. Willis, Dave D, Clyde, Sen. Bill roamed the hardwood then at MSG.

Three teams LeBron will have taken to the finals from basketball wilderness. How's that for a future story!

 

[Mile High Lion]

this is a tough match up for me. The Cavs are in synch and playing a very phsyical game on both ends of the court. The Warriors have such an explosive offense and one of the greatest scorers of all time.

I felt confident in the Warriors winning in 6 until watching the game last night. I realize there is a lot of time until game 1, but the Rockets just physically punished the Warriors despite losing in 5 games. Klay Thompson had his bell rung. Curry has been knocked down a bit. Fatigue may play a factor, and this may be where the Cavs bench continues to shine in assuming more minutes to give the starters some rest.

Warriors also have no finals experience on their roster. Kerr was a great finals player, not sure how that will translate as a coach. No team has won the NBA finals with ZERO Finals experience since the 1991-1992 Bulls.

I think the series comes down to the Cavs. and how well Iguodala can guard LBJ. If the role players on the Cavs hit their open shots when Lebron dishes them the ball, I think the Cavs win in 6. Don't think the Bogut/Lee clunky monster is as good as the Thompson/Mozgov machine either, so I see a lot of Cavs second chance points on the offensive boards.

I'll give a significant edge to the Warriors when it comes to home court advantage, the crowd at Oracle Arena is one of the more vocal. But I think the Cavs steal Game 1 and effectively take the crowd out of the series.

Should be a great series with some exciting basketball!

Golden State in 6. You say the Rockets physically punished the Warriors but GS got 20 more rebounds last night! Fatigue won't be a factor. Game 1 doesn't start for a week.

The Warriors will win because they have more depth. Iguodala, Barbosa and Shaun Livingston can make great contribution off the bench. David Lee is a former All Star and still a good player but he hardly sees the floor anymore. If Cleveland had Kevin Love it could go either way but without him James won't be enough.

 

[simons96]

Golden State in 6. You say the Rockets physically punished the Warriors but GS got 20 more rebounds last night! Fatigue won't be a factor. Game 1 doesn't start for a week.

The Warriors will win because they have more depth. Iguodala, Barbosa and Shaun Livingston can make great contribution off the bench. David Lee is a former All Star and still a good player but he hardly sees the floor anymore. If Cleveland had Kevin Love it could go either way but without him James won't be enough.

Klay Thompson concussion. Iguodala bruised shoulder. Curry got knocked down a lot on that series.

GS got 20 more rebounds because Dwight Howard is a . . . wimp.

I don't know where this praise for Iguodala is coming from, Shumpert and JR smith have better numbers than him

Lee played 12 total minutes in the Rockets series, if he's gonna show up . . . Finals would be the time

 

[Obliviax]

The NBA is still played from the inside out. I don't see anyone in the west that is very physical with the exception of San Antonio. One can say that GS had an easier road to the finals than the Cavs. Especially when you consider that Chicago played almost the entire year without Derek Rose, was picked by many to win the east before his injury, is coached very well and was peaking at the right time.

In addition, James is the only guy with substantial playoff (or finals) experience.

GS, on the other hand, has great guard play is much deeper.

Regardless, I just have no idea how GS will defend James. In the two games when the Cavs played the Warriors, James had 42 points and 11 Assists in 37 minutes. The Cavs won by 11 (Curry had 18, Thompson 13). In the first game, at GS, James did not play and they lost 112-94.

I really look for a fantastic series with both teams trying to dictate their style (Cavs inside out, GSW outside in).

 

[simons96]

as and aside, I just don't get the hate the Chicago front office showed for Thibodeau. The guy won 255 games in 5 seasons, and more than half without Derrick Rose.

I think the key will be how well the Cavs D containsCurry, and how well the role players hit their open shots for the Cavs.

 

[rudedude]

Who is the Cavs' other offensive threat besides LeBron? Irving is injured, JR Smith, oh please! Shumpert, no way. Warriors had the best D this year and they will dissect the Cavs. No ring for LeBron this year, Warriors in 5!

 

[simons96]

Who is the Cavs' other offensive threat besides LeBron? Irving is injured, JR Smith, oh please! Shumpert, no way. Warriors had the best D this year and they will dissect the Cavs. No ring for LeBron this year, Warriors in 5!

here's the Cavs scoring avgs (minus LBJ) for the last 10 games:

Irving 20.6 PPG (despite his injury, missed 2 games against ATL then scored 16 in Game 4)
Shumpert 9.7 PPG
JR Smith 11.8 PPG
Dellavedova 6.4 PPG
Thompson 7.1 PPG
Mozgov 9.9 PPG

the Cavs (mostly when LBJ is running the offense) really spread the ball around. I think Irving is healthier than you think, whereas Klay Thompson may be more hurt than you think.

btw, Cleveland has the top D in the postseason

 

[rudedude]

here's the Cavs scoring avgs (minus LBJ) for the last 10 games:

Irving 20.6 PPG (despite his injury, missed 2 games against ATL then scored 16 in Game 4)
Shumpert 9.7 PPG
JR Smith 11.8 PPG
Dellavedova 6.4 PPG
Thompson 7.1 PPG
Mozgov 9.9 PPG

the Cavs (mostly when LBJ is running the offense) really spread the ball around. I think Irving is healthier than you think, whereas Klay Thompson may be more hurt than you think.
btw, Cleveland has the top D in the postseason

Cleveland has played an extremely weak opposition in the East versus the West. Thompson will be fine with about a week before the finals open and Golden State's bench appears superior to Cleveland. Cleveland will be hard pressed to keep up with Golden State's offense. I watched Shumpert and JR Smith the past few years as a Knick fan and have seen their highs and lows and there is a time for what is called regression to the mean. You won't see stellar performances from them in the finals, if so, I would be extremely shocked. Warriors in 5.

 

[Obliviax]

Cleveland has played an extremely weak opposition in the East versus the West. Thompson will be fine with about a week before the finals open and Golden State's bench appears superior to Cleveland. Cleveland will be hard pressed to keep up with Golden State's offense. I watched Shumpert and JR Smith the past few years as a Knick fan and have seen their highs and lows and there is a time for what is called regression to the mean. You won't see stellar performances from them in the finals, if so, I would be extremely shocked. Warriors in 5.

I do not agree at all. The press loves offense and the west plays a more wide open, pretty game. They score more points. Doesn't mean they are better. GS had a very easy ride into the finals and still struggled against a more physical team like the Grizzlies, who are built around the lesser talented Gasol player. The pelicans were the #8 seed. Houston really only has one player and Howard (who is soft, and awful free throw shooter, and hasn't been good since his Orlando days).

I give GS their credit, they are clearly the class of the west. But they haven't played a physical team like CLE and the closest one they did play, Memphis, gave them fits.

 

[simons96]

I do not agree at all. The press loves offense and the west plays a more wide open, pretty game. They score more points. Doesn't mean they are better. GS had a very easy ride into the finals and still struggled against a more physical team like the Grizzlies, who are built around the lesser talented Gasol player. The pelicans were the #8 seed. Houston really only has one player and Howard (who is soft, and awful free throw shooter, and hasn't been good since his Orlando days).

I give GS their credit, they are clearly the class of the west. But they haven't played a physical team like CLE and the closest one they did play, Memphis, gave them fits.

I'd agree that Memphis is probably as close to a matchup for the Warriors as the Cavs will be. we'll see how the Warriors handle a more physical team with a bona fide superstar

 

[Stargellfan]

I do not agree at all. The press loves offense and the west plays a more wide open, pretty game. They score more points. Doesn't mean they are better. GS had a very easy ride into the finals and still struggled against a more physical team like the Grizzlies, who are built around the lesser talented Gasol player. The pelicans were the #8 seed. Houston really only has one player and Howard (who is soft, and awful free throw shooter, and hasn't been good since his Orlando days).

I give GS their credit, they are clearly the class of the west. But they haven't played a physical team like CLE and the closest one they did play, Memphis, gave them fits.

Memphis gave them fits for two games and when Golden State was challenged they destroyed Memphis in the last three games of that series. Golden State is much tougher than you think. Lebron is going to have to play out of his mind for Cleveland to be in this series.

 

[Mile High Lion]

Memphis gave them fits for two games and when Golden State was challenged they destroyed Memphis in the last three games of that series. Golden State is much tougher than you think. Lebron is going to have to play out of his mind for Cleveland to be in this series.

Memphis has the best big man tandem in the NBA with Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph, far better than Mozgov an Tristan Thompson. I don't get all this 'wait until Golden State plays a physical team' stuff. Must be an Ohio or Eastern Conference thing.

 

[step.eng69]

NBA Finals predictions??

1. Water to Blood ....And the LORD spake unto Moses,Take thy rod, and stretch out thine hand upon the waters of NBA Finals, upon their hardwoods, upon their fans, and upon their advertisers, and upon all their pools of refreshments, that they may become blood; and that there may be blood throughout all the land of the NBA, both in vessels of wood, and in vessels of stone followed by the nine remaining plagues.....

2. Frogs

3. Gnats or Lice

4. Flies

5. Livestock Diseased

6. Boils

7. Thunder and Hail

8. Locusts

9. Darkness

10. Death of the Firstborn

 

[Obliviax]

Memphis has the best big man tandem in the NBA with Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph, far better than Mozgov an Tristan Thompson. I don't get all this 'wait until Golden State plays a physical team' stuff. Must be an Ohio or Eastern Conference thing.

Anything can happen. Nobody on the Grizzlies resembles James, nobody. NBA is all about creating 1 on 1 matchups. GSW will try to set picks to get Curry 1 on 1 against a sub 100% Irving. Cavs will come out with JR on him, but will also throw Shumpert, Dellavadova, and James on him from time to time. However, there is nobody on the GSW team that can effectively guard James in the low or high post. When he starts scoring on Green, they will have to double him. No way Barns or Iggy are big enough to stop the low post. When they double, they will leave the rim unguarded or one of the guards open on the three point line.

While everyone can go into depth and experience and speed, at the end of the day, I just don't see how GSW stop James.

 

[70Sixers]

I just hope for a good series. No more injuries. This is the series I wanted all year BUT I wanted KLove and everyone to be healthy.

With that said one fan base is guaranteed to break a major drought which is pretty cool. The Warriors haven't won the title in 40 years and we all know about the drought of Cleveland in all sports. Two passionate, deserving fan bases which we wouldn't have seen with a Clippers/Hawks Finals, for example.

I would be happy for the Cleveland fans. I've never been to Cleveland but I always empathized with their underdog role.

 

[70Sixers]

However, there is nobody on the GSW team that can effectively guard James in the low or high post. When he starts scoring on Green, they will have to double him. No way Barns or Iggy are big enough to stop the low post.

Iggy was a great defender in his Sixers days. He still may be but I don't watch him nearly as much anymore. What I do know is Iggy would work like heck against LBJ but The King would wear his arse out time and time again. I witnessed it many times.

 

[Mile High Lion]

That's what Cleveland has. They have Lebron James. He'll get his points but after that the Cavs don't have much. He'll have to be a one man gang for Cleveland to win.

 

[Obliviax]

Iggy was a great defender in his Sixers days. He still may be but I don't watch him nearly as much anymore. What I do know is Iggy would work like heck against LBJ but The King would wear his arse out time and time again. I witnessed it many times.

Love Iggy...he's 218 lbs. James is ~ 260. Iggy may be able to guard him on the perimeter, but not in the paint. In addition, when Iggy is in, Green or Barnes is not. Again, GSW will suffer in other parts of their game to play Iggy and he won't be any more effective than Green.

 

[Obliviax]

That's what Cleveland has. They have Lebron James. He'll get his points but after that the Cavs don't have much. He'll have to be a one man gang for Cleveland to win.

I simply don't agree. JR is averaging almost 19 PPG in the playoffs. Kyrie, if healthy, is as good as any PG in the game. You'll be shocked. Cavs are a very good three point shooting team. They will isolate James and he will score at will if GS doen't double him. And if they do double, from where? If they double with a larger guy, they will suffer offensive rebounds (Cavs lead the playoff teams in total rebounds and offensive rebounds), if they bring a perimeter guy, that will leave his guy open from the three.

And James hasn't been hitting his outside shots at all.

Anything can happen, GS is a great perimeter team, but they will have no answer for James and that's going to be a problem.

 

[psugisher]

Lebron gets into stretches where it's dribble dribble dribble and go to the basket with the shot clock winding down trying to get a call or make a difficult shot. If that's the Cav's approach, Golden State will sweep. If the Cavs move the ball and their role players hit a ton of 3's, they'll have a chance to be competitive. Golden State has not gotten the credit they deserve. This is one of the greatest seasons any team has ever put together. They'll keep running different guys at James and mix things up with double teams. Golden State rotates well on defense. Cleveland will have to move the ball to get the open shots they need. If JR Smith can hit ridiculous covered shots like he did in the Atlanta series, he can change a game, but the splash brothers are going to hit some of those too. Cleveland's going to have to expend a lot more energy on the defensive end than in previous series. Add in Golden State's long bench and this should look like the 2007 finals experience Lebron had with Cleveland.

If Golden State gets down in this series or in a game, they'll be on the same page with their coach and work together to get back into it. If the Cavs are down and struggling, is Blatt going to be heard? Or is Lebron going to override him? I think that becomes a huge problem this series and Lebron throws his coach under the bus leading to a handpicked coach by Lebron next season.

 

[simons96]

pretty good analysis by SBNation on the contributions of Shumpert, JR Smith, and Timofey Mozogv:

LINK

quality role players are the key these days for winning championships

see: Ray Allen, Kawhi Leonard, Mike Miller, Shane Battier, etc. . .

 

[PSURAHJ]

Aside from key injuries I don't see how GSW can lose this. They are too deep and in 7 games their shooting might go cold twice, at the most. If LBJ pulls this off he may be the GOAT...which I think is inevitable anyway.