Like clockwork, looks like Bucs

[nits74]

are about to lose another key divisional game. Haven't even shown a pulse tonight. Getting frustrating to watch this over and over against Central foes. Faced an all rookie staff vs. Reds and were lucky to get a split.

Just turned it off and going to sit outside and enjoy the sounds of a summer night. Not worth it.

 

[bjf1984]

are about to lose another key divisional game. Haven't even shown a pulse tonight. Getting frustrating to watch this over and over against Central foes. Faced an all rookie staff vs. Reds and were lucky to get a split.

If Happ starts 10 games.....the Bucs will lose 8 of them. (IIRC, his former team lost something like 9 of the last 10 games he started).

After cutting loose a legitimate #3/4 starter......they panicked and traded for the WAP (the Worst Available Pitcher.....kinda' the antithesis of the BestAvailableAthlete theory) - and gave up a legit prospect in the process.

Glov can lament it all he wants ......but that is the type of move that costs a team a division - or a postseason - spot

 

[PennStateNate]

I just hope they stay in it for a while, I don't expect them to make the WC.

That said, ill be there tomorrow rooting my head off, anyone else going for Penn State night?

 

[bison13]

While I agree Happ is not good, and would rather have Worle; Worley is nothing more than a #5. Clayton Richard was DFA'd by the Cubs, pick him up again.

 

[bjf1984]

While I agree Happ is not good, and would rather have Worle; Worley is nothing more than a #5. Clayton Richard was DFA'd by the Cubs, pick him up again.

If Worley is a #5......what is Happ? A Bo Derek? (That's a 10....FWIW)

(FWIW, Worley ain't Clayton Kershaw.....but he for sure would be among the top 100 starters in the league.....which would make him at least a solid #4)

 

[fairgambit]

I just hope they stay in it for a while, I don't expect them to make the WC.
That said, ill be there tomorrow rooting my head off, anyone else going for Penn State night?

Come on Nate. Stay in it for a while? This isn't May. They've played 104 games. They have stayed in it for a while...a long while. And, I know this refrain keeps repeating, but it remains true. The Bucs have the 3rd best record in baseball....not in their Division...not in the National Leage...in baseball. They are an absolute lock for the playoffs. Keep the faith, Nate!

 

[nits74]

Come on Nate. Stay in it for a while? This isn't May. They've played 104 games. They have stayed in it for a while...a long while. And, I know this refrain keeps repeating, but it remains true. The Bucs have the 3rd best record in baseball....not in their Division...not in the National Leage...in baseball. They are an absolute lock for the playoffs. Keep the faith, Nate!

Don't bet on it. They are not nearly as good as their record indicates. Also, not a betting man but if they were to make the WC, I'd bet on the other team no matter who it is. Reason being, another decent team's ace is going to beat the Pirates' best pitcher far more often than not. Yes, even Cole. Not because Cole is inferior to anyone, but the Pirates have shown, this year particularly, that they rarely can mount anything against a good pitcher. Cole would almost have to allow one run or fewer to win. And even for him that's too much to ask.

 

[fairgambit]

Don't bet on it. They are not nearly as good as their record indicates. Also, not a betting man but if they were to make the WC, I'd bet on the other team no matter who it is. Reason being, another decent team's ace is going to beat the Pirates best pitcher far more often than not. Yes, even Cole. Not because Cole is inferior to anyone, but the Pirates have shown, this year particularly, that they rarely can mount anything against a good pitcher. Cole would almost have to allow one run or fewer to win. And even for him that's too much to ask.

Well, the old Gunner used to say "I'd rather be lucky than good". To build the 3rd best record in baseball, if we can't beat good pitchers, we must be pretty damn lucky to keep facing lots of bad ones. I expect our luck to continue right though the World Series.

 

[PennStateNate]

Come on Nate. Stay in it for a while? This isn't May. They've played 104 games. They have stayed in it for a while...a long while. And, I know this refrain keeps repeating, but it remains true. The Bucs have the 3rd best record in baseball....not in their Division...not in the National Leage...in baseball. They are an absolute lock for the playoffs. Keep the faith, Nate!

They have played over their heads, its only a matter of time before it catches up to them. Happ, Morton, Locke aren't as good 3-4-5 option. Burnett injury is going to kill them IMO.

 

[Chris92]

No worries Pirates fans, I'm sure you could always get Jerome Williams if he clears waivers(LOL) and work out a trade with the Phils.

 

[fairgambit]

They have played over their heads, its only a matter of time before it catches up to them. Happ, Morton, Locke aren't as good 3-4-5 option. Burnett injury is going to kill them IMO.

The team that has played over their heads is the Cardinals, not the Bucs.

 

[PennStateNate]

I liked the ARam deal, but for a team fighting the Cards and leading a pack for the WC, they really did nothing to improve themselves at the deadline.

 

[PennStateNate]

The team that has played over their heads is the Cardinals, not the Bucs.

Cards lineup is much much better then the Pirates. Cards may be playing better then they are, but they are still much better then the Pirates.

 

[nits74]

Well, the old Gunner used to say "I'd rather be lucky than good". To build the 3rd best record in baseball, if we can't beat good pitchers, we must be pretty damn lucky to keep facing lots of bad ones. I expect our luck to continue right though the World Series.

Regression to the mean will likely occur and the argument can be made that it has begun with the Pirates starting pitching. That is after all the only reason the Bucs have the record that they do. This team certainly hasn't built its record on offense, defense or basic fundamentals of the game. Then throw in the fact that they can't win within the Division (and there are many of those games remaining), and now you have a recipe for not even making the WC.

 

[fairgambit]

You guys are killin' me tonight. Well, let me just say I am absolutely certain the Pirates will make the playoffs so I don't worry about the ups and downs. Every team sucks from time to time. The Bucs suck less than most and that's why their record is what it is. Keep the faith!

 

[PennStateNate]

Cubs will be 3 games back after tonight.
Giants 4 games back..

Its not a certain thing they are making it.

 

[wbcincy]

Just wanted to make sure there was WILD overreaction going on to a loss against one of the best pitchers in the game. Wasn't let down!

Not as good as their record? 3rd best run deferential in NL. No offense? They lead their division in runs scored.

I won't argue the D, it's not been good. But honestly, the reactions are absurd. They lost to one of the best pitchers in the game tonight while they ran out their #5 starter. Big freakin deal. What games are ok to lose if this isn't? 7-3 over the last 10, but they lose to a great pitcher tonight and people freak out. Silliness.

 

[nits74]

Just wanted to make sure there was WILD overreaction going on to a loss against one of the best pitchers in the game. Wasn't let down!

Not as good as their record? 3rd best run deferential in NL. No offense? They lead their division in runs scored.

I won't argue the D, it's not been good. But honestly, the reactions are absurd. They lost to one of the best pitchers in the game tonight while they ran out their #5 starter. Big freakin deal. What games are ok to lose if this isn't? 7-3 over the last 10, but they lose to a great pitcher tonight and people freak out. Silliness.

Sounds good, but look at some of those other numbers. Lucky to split with the Reds who trot out all rookie pitchers. Lose three in a row to the Brewers. and again their Division record is awful. And there are many games to be played within the Central. Not sure, but aren't they among the leaders in being shutout? Not saying they won't make the WC (I will say they won't win the Division), but to not be at all concerned is just whistling by the graveside. And if they do happen to make the WC, I will say I don't like their chances at all in that game for reasons I stated earlier.

 

[Thorndike2012]

Yeah...I'm starting to turn games off before the 5th inning lately. Not good at all. The offense is offensive. The pitching is borderline to lousy. This team is stuck on stupid right now. They can turn it around, but I'm losing hope fast.

 

[nittnee]

Sounds good, but look at some of those other numbers. Lucky to split with the Reds who trot out all rookie pitchers. Lose three in a row to the Brewers. and again their Division record is awful. And there are many games to be played within the Central. Not sure, but aren't they among the leaders in being shutout? Not saying they won't make the WC (I will say they won't win the Division), but to not be at all concerned is just whistling by the graveside. And if they do happen to make the WC, I will say I don't like their chances at all in that game for reasons I stated earlier.

To quote your earlier post: "Regression to the mean will likely occur" Does that apply do winning in the division as well?

 

[NorCalcLion]

What is their record against Milwaukee ? Do the Pirates have a losing record against every team in the NL Central ? Third best record in baseball or not, that's pathetic.

 

[wbcincy]

What is their record against Milwaukee ? Do the Pirates have a losing record against every team in the NL Central ? Third best record in baseball or not, that's pathetic.

Why is it pathetic? Who cares if the wins come against the division or others if the record is great. The only team in the division it really matters against is the team they're chasing. So this huge deal like their record against the Brewers and Reds renders their overall 3rd best record in baseball irrelevant just because the Brewers and reds happen to be in their division is the height of absurdity. If they're 0-30 against the division and 50-0 against everyone else, that's completely fine. It doesn't matter where the WS come from, they count the same.

 

[wbcincy]

Sounds good, but look at some of those other numbers. Lucky to split with the Reds who trot out all rookie pitchers. Lose three in a row to the Brewers. and again their Division record is awful. And there are many games to be played within the Central. Not sure, but aren't they among the leaders in being shutout? Not saying they won't make the WC (I will say they won't win the Division), but to not be at all concerned is just whistling by the graveside. And if they do happen to make the WC, I will say I don't like their chances at all in that game for reasons I stated earlier.

3rd best record in the game.... Honestly. 3rd best record. They suck if it's not 1st? As I said above, who gives a crap what their division record is. Last I checked all your wins and losses count. Does the record against the cardinals matter? Sure. But the rest? Irrelevant as long as they have the overall record they do. Why this obsession with division record against the teams that are contending as if they count more. If they take 3 of 4 from the Nats and split with the Reds, is that not still 5-3? Why the hell would it matter if instead they split with the Nats and took 3 of 4 from the Reds? It's still the same record,

And I'd like to know how they were "lucky" to split with the Reds. The Reds won game 1 handily. The Pirates won game 4 easily. The other 2 were decided by 1 run. Where is the luck there? That's just a normal split. Sure, could've been 3 losses, but also just as easily could've been 3 wins with a Marte hit against Chapman. There's no need to make that series sound worse than it was, it was just a simple split.

This board is way too consistent with the meltdowns. It's freakin baseball, you lose more than 1/3 of the time when you're the best and you get out 2/3 of the time when you're the best. You lose to bad teams, you go through bad runs. That's the game. Freaking out every single time it happens, even while carrying the 3rd best record in the league is utter nonsense. If you guys enjoy wallowing in hysteria every time they have a few rough outings, that's certainly your call, but I'm nearing the end of taking part in it. I don't want to end up drug down into being angry and frustrated when my team is as great as this Pirates team is just because they hit their rough patches like anyone else, and those patches happen to come against irrelevant division-mates (anyone see who the Cards have been losing to of late? You think they're freaking out? Of course not, that'd be ridiculous. Though I guess it's ok to lose the Rockies, but losing to the Brewers would be pathetic, because division records mean so much.)

 

[wbcincy]

If Happ starts 10 games.....the Bucs will lose 8 of them. (IIRC, his former team lost something like 9 of the last 10 games he started).

After cutting loose a legitimate #3/4 starter......they panicked and traded for the WAP (the Worst Available Pitcher.....kinda' the antithesis of the BestAvailableAthlete theory) - and gave up a legit prospect in the process.

Glov can lament it all he wants ......but that is the type of move that costs a team a division - or a postseason - spot

A "legitimate #3/4 starter." Give it another week, you'll say they waived Sandy Koufax. Legit 3/4? Guy has been waived by 2 different teams in 16 months, and will likely clear waivers both times. He had a good run last year, but he couldn't beat out Morton or Locke. I think I'll trust Searage on his not only not being a legit 3/4, but not a 5 either.

 

[bjf1984]

A "legitimate #3/4 starter." Give it another week, you'll say they waived Sandy Koufax. Legit 3/4? Guy has been waived by 2 different teams in 16 months, and will likely clear waivers both times. He had a good run last year, but he couldn't beat out Morton or Locke. I think I'll trust Searage on his not only not being a legit 3/4, but not a 5 either.

LOL Amazingly - even in a sport like baseball - where EVERYTHING can be quantified, most "fans" throw out "stuff" without any regard whatsoever to the reality of the numbers.

The following are the WHIPs and ERAs of EVERY 3rd and 4th starter for all National League teams:

#3 Starters
WHIPs 1.04/1.06/1.26/1.28/1.28 (MORTON)/1.29/1.29/1.33/1.35/1.36/1.38/1.40/1.41/1.43/1.70
Average = 1.32
ERAs 2.61/2.66/3.13/3.14/3.54/3.71/3.75/3.89/3.93/4.08/4.16/4.19 (MORTON)/4.37/4.88/6.09
Average = 3.88 (if you throw out the 6.09 from the Phillies guy...3.72)

#4 Starters
WHIPs 1.15/1.24/1.25/1.25/1.29/1.33/1.39/1.41/1.42/1.42 (LOCKE)/1.53/1.56/1.58/1.59/1.61
Average = 1.40
ERAs 2.83/2.89/3.51/3.67/4.21 (LOCKE)/4.40/4.44/4.48/4.60/4.61/4.80/4.80/5.17/5.40/6.08
Average 4.44

So, the average #3 = 1.32 WHIP, 3.88 ERA
So, the average #4 = 1.40 WHIP, 4.44 ERA

Worley's numbers (and, no, he ain't no Sandy Koufax) = 1.36 WHIP 3.78 ERA

The tradeoff here isn't do you take Worley or Koufax.....the tradeoff is Worley vs AJ "My Team Has Lost 12 Of The Last 13 Times I Have Been On The Bump" Happ.

And you tell me he isn't equal to an average #3 or 4 starter. Really?
When his numbers are right in line with a league average #3......not to mention better than all but a handful of the #4 starters.....not to mention, better than either the current #3 or 4 starter in the Buccos rotation????
And we didn't even DISCUSS the #5 guys....LOL

It is what it is.....and flippantly saying he's not even a #5 is just so disingenuous that its hard to believe you even mean it.

The numbers don't lie......I don't know why a few folks just refuse to face the reality of the situation......its not that difficult - add, subtract, multiply, divide.
And then to instead resort to flippant comments like "you'll say they waived Sandy Koufax.". It is what it is.
I just don't get why it is so foreign to some folks.

 

[wbcincy]

LOL Amazingly - even in a sport like baseball - where EVERYTHING can be quantified, most "fans" throw out "stuff" without any regard whatsoever to the reality of the numbers.

The following are the WHIPs and ERAs of EVERY 3rd and 4th starter for all National League teams:

#3 Starters
WHIPs 1.04/1.06/1.26/1.28/1.28 (MORTON)/1.29/1.29/1.33/1.35/1.36/1.38/1.40/1.41/1.43/1.70
Average = 1.32
ERAs 2.61/2.66/3.13/3.14/3.54/3.71/3.75/3.89/3.93/4.08/4.16/4.19 (MORTON)/4.37/4.88/6.09
Average = 3.88 (if you throw out the 6.09 from the Phillies guy...3.72)

#4 Starters
WHIPs 1.15/1.24/1.25/1.25/1.29/1.33/1.39/1.41/1.42/1.42 (LOCKE)/1.53/1.56/1.58/1.59/1.61
Average = 1.40
ERAs 2.83/2.89/3.51/3.67/4.21 (LOCKE)/4.40/4.44/4.48/4.60/4.61/4.80/4.80/5.17/5.40/6.08
Average 4.44

So, the average #3 = 1.32 WHIP, 3.88 ERA
So, the average #4 = 1.40 WHIP, 4.44 ERA

Worley's numbers (and, no, he ain't no Sandy Koufax) = 1.36 WHIP 3.78 ERA

The tradeoff here isn't do you take Worley or Koufax.....the tradeoff is Worley vs AJ "My Team Has Lost 12 Of The Last 13 Times I Have Been On The Bump" Happ.

And you tell me he isn't equal to an average #3 or 4 starter. Really?
When his numbers are right in line with a league average #3......not to mention better than all but a handful of the #4 starters.....not to mention, better than either the current #3 or 4 starter in the Buccos rotation????
And we didn't even DISCUSS the #5 guys....LOL

It is what it is.....and flippantly saying he's not even a #5 is just so disingenuous that its hard to believe you even mean it.

The numbers don't lie......I don't know why a few folks just refuse to face the reality of the situation......its not that difficult - add, subtract, multiply, divide.
And then to instead resort to flippant comments like "you'll say they waived Sandy Koufax.". It is what it is.
I just don't get why it is so foreign to some folks.

Hah, you show the stats of a guy in mop up innings and think you can compare those to starts? How'd Worley's recent start go? Hint: it looked just Happ's start.

Again, if he's such a solid pitcher, an incredibly valuable commodity, it's amazing he keeps getting waived. Guess these managers, pitching coaches, GMs etc just don't have your insight.

 

[bjf1984]

Hah, you show the stats of a guy in mop up innings and think you can compare those to starts? How'd Worley's recent start go? Hint: it looked just Happ's start.

Again, if he's such a solid pitcher, an incredibly valuable commodity, it's amazing he keeps getting waived. Guess these managers, pitching coaches, GMs etc just don't have your insight.

Good luck.

 

[nits74]

3rd best record in the game.... Honestly. 3rd best record. They suck if it's not 1st? As I said above, who gives a crap what their division record is. Last I checked all your wins and losses count. Does the record against the cardinals matter? Sure. But the rest? Irrelevant as long as they have the overall record they do. Why this obsession with division record against the teams that are contending as if they count more. If they take 3 of 4 from the Nats and split with the Reds, is that not still 5-3? Why the hell would it matter if instead they split with the Nats and took 3 of 4 from the Reds? It's still the same record,

And I'd like to know how they were "lucky" to split with the Reds. The Reds won game 1 handily. The Pirates won game 4 easily. The other 2 were decided by 1 run. Where is the luck there? That's just a normal split. Sure, could've been 3 losses, but also just as easily could've been 3 wins with a Marte hit against Chapman. There's no need to make that series sound worse than it was, it was just a simple split.

This board is way too consistent with the meltdowns. It's freakin baseball, you lose more than 1/3 of the time when you're the best and you get out 2/3 of the time when you're the best. You lose to bad teams, you go through bad runs. That's the game. Freaking out every single time it happens, even while carrying the 3rd best record in the league is utter nonsense. If you guys enjoy wallowing in hysteria every time they have a few rough outings, that's certainly your call, but I'm nearing the end of taking part in it. I don't want to end up drug down into being angry and frustrated when my team is as great as this Pirates team is just because they hit their rough patches like anyone else, and those patches happen to come against irrelevant division-mates (anyone see who the Cards have been losing to of late? You think they're freaking out? Of course not, that'd be ridiculous. Though I guess it's ok to lose the Rockies, but losing to the Brewers would be pathetic, because division records mean so much.)

Come on now, will hear none of that!. Seriously, your input and baseball knowledge is highly respected here. Now, the reason that I point out the Division record is that the goal is to win it, and on an individual team basis they play these teams more than any other. Also, at least lately the Central has often been from where competition for one of the WC spots comes. By now, you know how I am re: Bucs --- a worrier. And looking ahead at the schedule, injuries, and some other things, I think it may actually be justified this time.

 

[wbcincy]

Good luck.

Worleys xFIP as a starter this year: 4.47
Happ's xFIP as a starter this year: 4.07

Worley waived twice in 16 months. He's not suddenly a great pitcher because he had 1/2 a good season once. He's extraordinarily mediocre, thats why the Pirates couldn't trade him for anything. Pitching was going at an extreme premium this deadline, and Worley was worthless.

I know I'm now coming across as a Worley hater, and I'm not. I liked the guy as a long arm out of the pen, and as a spot starter. But I'm not going to act like losing a replacement level pitcher is all that meaningful.

 

[Bessmoney]

The loss of Mercer and Harrison is the bigger issue.

 

[Mixolydian]

The Cardinals have had the lowest team ERA every individual month of the season so far in the NL. The Bucs were second April thru June but fell to 22 in July. Their record in July was still decent because they started hitting better. Since the ASG though they are 8-9 and the hitting has fallen off again in August. Neither Happ nor Worley is going to get them back to where they were the first half when AJ was phenomenal. They are going to gave to hit more consistently or they are going to be in a real dogfight even for the WC regardless of where their overall record ranks today. The Cubs may still fade with their youth, but right now it sure looks like they mean business. The Bucs better put their foot down tonight.

 

[TheGLOV]

If Happ starts 10 games.....the Bucs will lose 8 of them. (IIRC, his former team lost something like 9 of the last 10 games he started).

After cutting loose a legitimate #3/4 starter......they panicked and traded for the WAP (the Worst Available Pitcher.....kinda' the antithesis of the BestAvailableAthlete theory) - and gave up a legit prospect in the process.

Glov can lament it all he wants ......but that is the type of move that costs a team a division - or a postseason - spot

I never lament on an empty beer mug sir.

Bartender!!!